Quantifying coastal freshwater extremes during unprecedented rainfall using long timeseries multi-platform salinity observations.

During 2022, extreme rainfall occurred across southeast Australia, making it the wettest year on record. The oceanic impact of extreme rainfall events in normally 'dry' regions is not well understood, as their effects are challenging to observe. Here, we use unique multi-platform timeseries and spatial data from 36 autonomous ocean glider missions over 13 years, and we define an extreme salinity threshold inshore of the East Australian Current. We show that the freshwater plume extended fivefold further than previously thought. The compound effect of multiple large rainfall events resulted in a newly observed stratification ('double-stacking') dynamic, with the stratification being largely controlled by salinity. Extreme salinity events are known to be important for species composition of local fisheries as well as detrimental for coastal water quality. Such events and their impacts may become more common as extreme rainfall events are projected to become more frequent in a changing climate. Hence, comprehensive observing strategies facilitating identification of salinity extremes are essential.

Effect of marine heatwaves and warming on kelp microbiota influence trophic interactions.

The range-expansion of tropical herbivores due to ocean warming can profoundly alter temperate reef communities by overgrazing the seaweed forests that underpin them. Such ecological interactions may be mediated by changes to seaweed-associated microbiota in response to warming, but empirical evidence demonstrating this is rare. We experimentally simulated ocean warming and marine heatwaves (MHWs) to quantify effects on two dominant temperate seaweed species and their microbiota, as well as grazing by a tropical herbivore. The kelp Ecklonia radiata's microbiota in sustained warming and MHW treatments was enriched with microorganisms associated with seaweed disease and tissue degradation. In contrast, the fucoid Sargassum linearifolium's microbiota was unaffected by temperature. Consumption by the tropical sea-urchin Tripneustes gratilla was greater on Ecklonia where the microbiota had been altered by higher temperatures, while Sargassum's consumption was unaffected. Elemental traits (carbon, nitrogen), chemical defences (phenolics) and tissue bleaching of both seaweeds were generally unaffected by temperature. Effects of warming and MHWs on seaweed holobionts (host plus its microbiota) are likely species-specific. The effect of increased temperature on Ecklonia's microbiota and subsequent increased consumption suggest that changes to kelp microbiota may underpin kelp-herbivore interactions, providing novel insights into potential mechanisms driving change in species' interactions in warming oceans.

Multi-decadal ocean temperature time-series and climatologies from Australia's long-term National Reference Stations.

Multi-decadal ocean time-series are fundamental baselines for assessing the impacts of environmental change, however, compiling and quality controlling historic data from multiple sources remains challenging. Here we aggregate, document, and release a number of long time-series temperature products and climatologies compiled from data obtained at 4 monitoring sites around Australia where sub-surface ocean temperature has been recorded nominally weekly to monthly since the 1940s/50s. In recent years, the sampling was augmented with data obtained from moored sensors, vertical profiles and satellite-derived data. The temperature data have been quality controlled, and combined using a rigorously tested methodology. We have packaged the multi-decadal, multi-depth, multi-platform temperature time-series at each site and produced a range of daily temperature climatologies from different data combinations and time periods. The 17 data products are provided as CF-compliant NetCDF files and will be updated periodically. The long-term temperature time-series will be useful for studies of ocean temperature variability, trends, anomalies and change. The data collection is supported by Australia's Integrated Marine Observing System and data are open-access.

Transport variability over the Hawkesbury Shelf (31.5-34.5°S) driven by the East Australian Current.

The Hawkesbury Bioregion located off southeastern Australia (31.5-34.5oS) is a region of highly variable circulation. The region spans the typical separation point of the East Australian Current (EAC), the western boundary current that dominates the flow along the coast of SE Australia. It lies adjacent to a known ocean warming hotspot in the Tasman Sea, and is a region of high productivity. However, we have limited understanding of the circulation, temperature regimes and shelf transport in this region, and the drivers of variability. We configure a high resolution (750m) numerical model for the Hawkesbury Shelf region nested inside 2 data assimilating models of decreasing resolution, to obtain the best estimate of the shelf circulation and transport over a 2-yr period (2012-2013). Here we show that the transport is driven by the mesoscale EAC circulation that strengthens in summer and is related to the separation of the EAC jet from the coast. Transport estimates show strong offshore export is a maximum between 32-33oS. Median offshore transports range 2.5-8.4Sv seasonally and are a maximum during in summer driven by the separation of the EAC jet from the coast. The transport is more variable downstream of the EAC separation, driven by the EAC eddy field. Onshore transport occurs more frequently off Sydney 33.5-34.5oS; seasonal medians range -1.7 to 2.3Sv, with an onshore maximum in winter. The region is biologically productive, and it is a known white shark nursery area despite the dominance of the oligotrophic western boundary current. Hence an understanding of the drivers of circulation and cross-shelf exchange is important.

Future ocean temperature impacting the survival prospects of post-larval spiny lobsters.

Spiny lobster post-larvae undertake an extensive migration from the open ocean to the coast, during which time their swimming is fueled solely by energy reserves accumulated through their preceding larval phase. We assessed the influence of future ocean temperatures on the swimming behavior and energy use of migrating post-larvae of Sagmariasus verreauxi, by experimentally swimming post-larvae for up to 6 days at three temperatures and measuring the lipid and protein used, and observing their time spent actively swimming. Increasing the temperature from 17 °C to 23 °C doubled the energy utilized by post-larvae while swimming, while also reducing the time they spent swimming by three times. Therefore, increasing ocean temperatures appear to greatly affect the energetic cost and efficiency of shoreward migration of post-larvae in this lobster species, with the potential to markedly impact post-larval recruitment into coastal populations under future scenarios of ocean warming.

Correction: Mesoscale circulation determines broad spatio-temporal settlement patterns of lobster.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211722.].

Mesoscale circulation determines broad spatio-temporal settlement patterns of lobster.

The influence of physical oceanographic processes on the dispersal of larvae is critical for understanding the ecology of species and for anticipating settlement into fisheries to aid long-term sustainable harvest. This study examines the mechanisms by which ocean currents shape larval dispersal and supply to the continental shelf-break, and the extent to which circulation determines settlement patterns using Sagmariasus verreauxi (Eastern Rock Lobster, ERL) as a model species. Despite the large range of factors that can impact larval dispersal, we show that within a Western Boundary Current system, mesoscale circulation explains broad spatio-temporal patterns of observed settlement including inter-annual and decadal variability along 500 km of coastline. To discern links between ocean circulation and settlement, we correlate a unique 21- year dataset of observed lobster settlement (i.e., early juvenile & pueruli abundance), with simulated larval settlement. Simulations use outputs of an eddy-resolving, data-assimilated, hydrodynamic model, incorporating ERL spawning strategy and larval duration. The latitude where the East Australian Current (EAC) deflects east and separates from the continent determines the limit between regions of low and high ERL settlement. We found that years with a persistent EAC flow have low settlement while years when mesoscale eddies prevail have high settlement; in fact, mesoscale eddies facilitate the transport of larvae to the continental shelf-break from offshore. Proxies for settlement based on circulation features observed with satellites could therefore be useful in predicting broadscale patterns of settlement orders of magnitudes to guide harvest limits.

Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas.

Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self-seeding within higher-latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low-latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future.

Mean hydrography on the continental shelf from 26 repeat glider deployments along Southeastern Australia.

Since 2008, 26 glider missions have been undertaken along the continental shelf of southeastern Australia. Typically these missions have spanned the continental shelf on the inshore edge of the East Australian Current from 29.5-33.5°S. This comprehensive dataset of over 33,600 CTD profiles from the surface to within 10 m of the bottom in water depths ranging 25-200 m provides new and unprecedented high resolution observations of the properties of the continental shelf waters adjacent to a western boundary current, straddling the region where it separates from the coast. The region is both physically and biologically significant, and is also in a hotspot of ocean warming. We present gridded mean fields for temperature, salinity and density, but also dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll-a fluorescence indicative of phytoplankton biomass. This data will be invaluable for understanding shelf stratification, circulation, biophysical and bio-geochemical interactions, as well as for the validation of high-resolution ocean models or serving as teaching material.

Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival.

Human-induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy-resolving ocean model in south-eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross-current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south-eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270 km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate-induced changes of species ranges.

IMOS National Reference Stations: a continental-wide physical, chemical and biological coastal observing system.

Sustained observations allow for the tracking of change in oceanography and ecosystems, however, these are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere. To address this in part, the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) implemented a network of nine National Reference Stations (NRS). The network builds on one long-term location, where monthly water sampling has been sustained since the 1940s and two others that commenced in the 1950s. In-situ continuously moored sensors and an enhanced monthly water sampling regime now collect more than 50 data streams. Building on sampling for temperature, salinity and nutrients, the network now observes dissolved oxygen, carbon, turbidity, currents, chlorophyll a and both phytoplankton and zooplankton. Additional parameters for studies of ocean acidification and bio-optics are collected at a sub-set of sites and all data is made freely and publically available. Our preliminary results demonstrate increased utility to observe extreme events, such as marine heat waves and coastal flooding; rare events, such as plankton blooms; and have, for the first time, allowed for consistent continental scale sampling and analysis of coastal zooplankton and phytoplankton communities. Independent water sampling allows for cross validation of the deployed sensors for quality control of data that now continuously tracks daily, seasonal and annual variation. The NRS will provide multi-decadal time series, against which more spatially replicated short-term studies can be referenced, models and remote sensing products validated, and improvements made to our understanding of how large-scale, long-term change and variability in the global ocean are affecting Australia's coastal seas and ecosystems. The NRS network provides an example of how a continental scaled observing systems can be developed to collect observations that integrate across physics, chemistry and biology.

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts.

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to 'barrens' when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs.