Detecting directional epistasis and dominance from cross-line analyses in alpine populations of Arabidopsis thaliana.

The contribution of non-additive genetic effects to the genetic architecture of fitness, and to the evolutionary potential of populations, has been a topic of theoretical and empirical interest for a long time. Yet, the empirical study of these effects in natural populations remains scarce, perhaps because measuring dominance and epistasis relies heavily on experimental line crosses. In this study, we explored the contribution of dominance and epistasis in natural alpine populations of Arabidopsis thaliana, for two fitness traits, the dry biomass and the estimated number of siliques, measured in a greenhouse. We found that, on average, crosses between inbred lines of A. thaliana led to mid-parent heterosis for dry biomass, but outbreeding depression for estimated number of siliques. While heterosis for dry biomass was due to dominance, we found that outbreeding depression for estimated number of siliques could be attributed to the breakdown of beneficial epistatic interactions. We simulated and discussed the implication of these results for the adaptive potential of the studied populations, as well as the use of line-cross analyses to detect non-additive genetic effects.

A proposal for a revision of the phlebographic classification of congenital venous malformations.

Background: Venous malformation (VM) is the most frequent type of congenital vascular malformation. In terms of functional outcome local sclerotherapy remains the most important therapeutic tool. For planning and correct estimation and prevention of complications, an exact anatomical classification of the VM is crucial. Not only the drainage, as assessed in the established classification, but also the phlebographic aspect of the internal VM structure itself plays a decisive role. In order to integrate this aspect, we aim to validate a proposal for a revised phlebographic VM classification distinguishing non-lacunar (a) and lacunar (b) types. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed all patients with VM in whom a direct puncture phlebography was performed in our clinic between 2009 and 2018 to assess morphology and flow characteristics. Phlebographic assessment included: (I) differentiation of non-lacunar vs. lacunar type; (II) drainage assignment according to the existing classification; (III) adjusted classification combining both. Inter-reader agreement was measured in percentage as well as by the Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ). Results: Overall 26 patients were classified as non-lacunar (a) and 41 patients as lacunar (b) VM. For this categorization, inter-reader agreement was 96% (κ=0.91). Classical Puig classification into types I, II, III and IV showed 87% inter-reader agreement (κ=0.78). For the adjusted classification adding the non-lacunar or lacunar characteristic to type I-IV an agreement of 82% (κ=0.77) was achieved. Conclusions: Phlebographic differentiation into non-lacunar and lacunar VM is feasible and reliable to distinguish phenotypic subgroups of patients with VM. We therefore propose to integrate this parameter of the internal VM structure into the existing classification.

Evaluation of the Gonadotoxicity of Cancer Therapies to Improve Counseling of Patients About Fertility and Fertility Preservation Measures: Protocol for a Retrospective Systematic Data Analysis and a Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Cytotoxic treatments such as chemo- and radiotherapy and immune therapies are required in cancer diseases. These therapies have the potential to cure patients but may also have an impact on gonadal function and, therefore, on fertility. Consequently, fertility preservation treatments such as freezing of gametes and gonadal tissue might be required. However, as detailed data about the necessity to perform fertility preservation treatment are very limited, this study was designed to fill this data gap. OBJECTIVE: Primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of cancer therapies and chemotherapies on the ovarian reserve and sperm quality. Secondary objectives are to analyze the (1) impact of cancer therapies and chemotherapies on other fertility parameters and (2) probability of undergoing fertility preservation treatments in relation to specific cancer diseases and treatment protocols and the probability to use the frozen gametes and gonadal tissue to achieve pregnancies. METHODS: First, previously published studies on the gonadotoxicity of chemo- and radiotherapies among patients with cancer will be systematically analyzed. Second, a prospective cohort study set up by approximately 70 centers in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria will collect the following data: ovarian function by analyzing anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentrations and testicular function by analyzing sperm parameters and total testosterone immediately before and around 1 year after gonadotoxic therapies (short-term fertility). A follow-up of these fertility parameters, including history of conceptions, will be performed 5 and 10 years after gonadotoxic therapies (long-term fertility). Additionally, the proportion of patients undergoing fertility-preserving procedures, their satisfaction with these procedures, and the amount of gametes and gonadal tissue and the children achieved by using the frozen material will be analyzed. Third, the data will be merged to create the internet-based data platform FertiTOX. The platform will be structured in accordance with the ICD (International Classification of Diseases) classification of cancer diseases and will be easily be accessible using a specific App. RESULTS: Several funding bodies have funded this study. Ten systematic reviews are in progress and the first one has been accepted for publication. All Swiss and many German and Austrian ethics committees have provided their approval for the prospective cohort study. The study registry has been set up, and a study website has been created. In total, 50 infertility centers have already been prepared for data collection, which started on December 1, 2023. CONCLUSIONS: The study can be expected to bridge the data gap regarding the gonadotoxicity of cancer therapies to better counsel patients about their infertility risk and their need to undergo fertility preservation procedures. Initial data are expected to be uploaded on the FertiTOX platform in 2026. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05885048; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05885048. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/51145.

Lymph node metastases and recurrence in pT1 colorectal cancer: Prediction with the International Budding Consortium Score-A retrospective, multi-centric study.

BACKGROUND: The International Collaboration on Cancer Reporting proposes histological tumour type, lymphovascular invasion, tumour grade, perineural invasion, extent, and dimensions of invasion as risk factors for lymph node metastases and tumour progression in completely endoscopically resected pT1 colorectal cancer (CRC). OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to propose a predictive and reliable score to optimise the clinical management of endoscopically resected pT1 CRC patients. METHODS: This multi-centric, retrospective International Budding Consortium (IBC) study included an international pT1 CRC cohort of 565 patients. All cases were reviewed by eight expert gastrointestinal pathologists. All risk factors were reported according to international guidelines. Tumour budding and immune response (CD8+ T-cells) were assessed with automated models using artificial intelligence. We used the information on risk factors and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression to develop a prediction model and generate a score to predict the occurrence of lymph node metastasis or cancer recurrence. RESULTS: The IBC prediction score included the following parameters: lymphovascular invasion, tumour buds, infiltration depth and tumour grade. The score has an acceptable discrimination power (area under the curve of 0.68 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.61-0.75]; 0.64 [95% CI 0.57-0.71] after internal validation). At a cut-off of 6.8 points to discriminate high-and low-risk patients, the score had a sensitivity and specificity of 0.9 [95% CI 0.8-0.95] and 0.26 [95% 0.22, 0.3], respectively. CONCLUSION: The IBC score is based on well-established risk factors and is a promising tool with clinical utility to support the management of pT1 CRC patients.

Near-peer compared to faculty teaching of abdominal ultrasound for medical students - A randomized-controlled trial.

PURPOSE: Medical schools increasingly rely on near-peer tutors for ultrasound teaching. We set out to compare the efficacy of a blended near-peer ultrasound teaching program to that of a faculty course in a randomized controlled trial. METHODS: 152 medical students received 21 hours of ultrasound teaching either by near-peer teachers or medical doctors. The near-peer course consisted of blended learning that included spaced repetition. The faculty-led course was the European common course for abdominal sonography. The primary outcome measurement was the students' ultrasound knowledge at month 6, assessed by structured examination (score 0 to 50). Secondary outcomes included scores at month 0 and changes in scores after the course. RESULTS: Students in the near-peer group scored 37 points, and students in the faculty group scored 31 points six months after course completion. The difference of 5.99 points (95% CI 4.48;7.49) in favor of the near-peer group was significant (p<0.001). Scores immediately after the course were 3.8 points higher in the near-peer group (2.35; 5.25, p<0.001). Ultrasound skills decreased significantly in the six months after course completion in the faculty group (-2.41 points, [-3.39; -1.42], p<0.001]) but barely decreased in the near-peer group (-0.22 points, [-1.19; 0.75, p=0.66]). CONCLUSION: The near-peer course that combined blended learning and spaced repetition outperformed standard faculty teaching in basic ultrasound education. This study encourages medical schools to use peer teaching combined with e-learning and spaced repetition as an effective means to meet the increasing demand for ultrasound training.

Accuracy of screening tests for cervical pre-cancer in women living with HIV in low-resource settings: a paired prospective study in Lusaka, Zambia.

Introduction: To provide evidence to improve cervical screening for women living with HIV (WLHIV), we assessed the accuracy of screening tests that can be used in low-resource settings and give results at the same visit. Methods: We conducted a paired, prospective study among consecutive eligible WLHIV, aged 18-65 years, receiving cervical cancer screening at one hospital in Lusaka, Zambia. The histopathological reference standard was multiple biopsies taken at two time points. The target condition was high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+). The index tests were high-risk human papillomavirus detection (hrHPV, Xpert HPV, Cepheid), portable colposcopy (Gynocular, Gynius), and visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). Accuracy of stand-alone and test combinations were calculated as the point estimate with 95% confidence intervals. A sensitivity analysis considered disease when only visible lesions were biopsied. Results: Among 371 participants with histopathological results, 27% (101/371) women had CIN2+ and 23% (23/101) was not detected by any index test. Sensitivity and specificity for stand-alone tests were: hrHPV, 67.3% (95% CI: 57.7-75.7) and 65.3% (59.4-70.7); Gynocular 51.5% (41.9-61.0) and 80.0% (74.8-84.3); and VIA 22.8% (15.7-31.9) and 92.6% (88.8-95.2), respectively. The combination of hrHPV testing followed by Gynocular had the best balance of sensitivity (42.6% [33.4-52.3]) and specificity (89.6% [85.3-92.7]). All test accuracies improved in sensitivity analysis. Conclusion: The low accuracy of screening tests assessed might be explained by our reference standard, which reduced verification and misclassification biases. Better screening strategies for WLHIV in low-resource settings are urgently needed. Registration number: The trial was registered prospectively at ClinicalTrials.gov (ref: NCT03931083 ). The study protocol has been previously published, and the statistical analysis plan can be accessed on ClinicalTrials.gov . Key messages: What is already known on this topic: The 2021 World Health Organization guidelines recommend that women living with HIV (WLHIV) receive screening for high risk human papillomavirus high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotypes at three- to five-year intervals, followed by a triage test to determine whether treatment is needed but this is based on low and moderate certainty evidence.What this study adds: This study among WLHIV in Lusaka, Zambia evaluated three screening tests that allow same-day treatment; hrHPV test, portable colposcopy (Gynocular), and visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), using strict methods to reduce verification and misclassification biases. The test accuracy of the different screening was poor, with sensitivities and specificity for stand-alone tests: hrHPV, 67.3% and 65.3%; Gynocular 51.5% and 80.0%; and VIA 22.8% and 92.6%; respectively.How this study might affect research, practice or policy: Our findings have implications for research and cervical cancer screening policies among WLHIV if test-accuracy in this high-risk population has been overestimated from a majority of exsisting studies that are affected by verification and misclassification biases. Methodologically robust studies are crucial to inform cervical cancer screening practices and policies for the successful implementation of a cervical cancer elimination plan in sub-Saharan Africa, where 85% of women with cervical cancer and HIV live.

Hydrochlorothiazide and Prevention of Kidney-Stone Recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Nephrolithiasis is one of the most common conditions affecting the kidney and is characterized by a high risk of recurrence. Thiazide diuretic agents are widely used for prevention of the recurrence of kidney stones, but data regarding the efficacy of such agents as compared with placebo are limited. Furthermore, dose-response data are also limited. METHODS: In this double-blind trial, we randomly assigned patients with recurrent calcium-containing kidney stones to receive hydrochlorothiazide at a dose of 12.5 mg, 25 mg, or 50 mg once daily or placebo once daily. The main objective was to investigate the dose-response effect for the primary end point, a composite of symptomatic or radiologic recurrence of kidney stones. Radiologic recurrence was defined as the appearance of new stones on imaging or the enlargement of preexisting stones that had been observed on the baseline image. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: In all, 416 patients underwent randomization and were followed for a median of 2.9 years. A primary end-point event occurred in 60 of 102 patients (59%) in the placebo group, in 62 of 105 patients (59%) in the 12.5-mg hydrochlorothiazide group (rate ratio vs. placebo, 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 1.93), in 61 of 108 patients (56%) in the 25-mg group (rate ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.79), and in 49 of 101 patients (49%) in the 50-mg group (rate ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.63 to 1.36). There was no relation between the hydrochlorothiazide dose and the occurrence of a primary end-point event (P = 0.66). Hypokalemia, gout, new-onset diabetes mellitus, skin allergy, and a plasma creatinine level exceeding 150% of the baseline level were more common among patients who received hydrochlorothiazide than among those who received placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with recurrent kidney stones, the incidence of recurrence did not appear to differ substantially among patients receiving hydrochlorothiazide once daily at a dose of 12.5 mg, 25 mg, or 50 mg or placebo once daily. (Funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation and Inselspital; NOSTONE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03057431.).

Oocyte maturity, oocyte fertilization and cleavage-stage embryo morphology are better in natural compared with high-dose gonadotrophin stimulated IVF cycles.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Does high-dose gonadotrophin stimulation have an effect on oocyte and early-stage embryo development? DESIGN: This was a retrospective study including 616 natural cycle IVF (NC-IVF) and 167 conventional IVF (cIVF) cycles. In total, 2110 oocytes were retrieved and analysed in fresh cycles. In NC-IVF, only human chorionic gonadotrophin was applied to trigger ovulation. In cIVF, antagonist protocols with daily 150-300 IU of human menopausal gonadotrophins were performed. The effect of gonadotrophins on oocyte and early-stage embryo development was analysed. Primary outcomes were the occurrence of mature (metaphase II) oocytes, zygotes and embryos with good morphology at the cleavage stage 2 days after oocyte retrieval. RESULTS: The mature oocyte rate (number of mature oocytes/number of retrieved oocytes) was higher in NC-IVF than cIVF cycles (89% versus 82%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.79, P = 0.001), as was the zygote rate per oocyte retrieved (70% versus 58%, aOR 1.76, P = 0.001) and the zygote rate per mature oocyte (79% versus 71%, aOR 1.62, P = 0.001). The percentage of zygotes that developed into cleavage-stage embryos was no different. For the transferred embryos, the probability of having a good embryo morphology with four blastomeres and a fragmentation of <10% (score 0) in cleavage-stage embryos was found to be higher in NC-IVF (proportional aOR for four blastomeres 2.00, P < 0.001; aOR 1.87 for a fragmentation score of 0, P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Oocyte maturity, oocyte fertilization and morphology of the cleavage-stage embryo are affected by high-dose gonadotrophin stimulation in fresh IVF cycles.

External validation of the PAGE-B score for HCC risk prediction in people living with HIV/HBV coinfection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: HBV coinfection is common among people living with HIV (PLWH) and is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While risk prediction tools for HCC have been validated in patients with HBV monoinfection, they have not been evaluated in PLWH. Thus, we performed an external validation of PAGE-B in people with HIV/HBV coinfection. METHODS: We included data on PLWH from four European cohorts who were positive for HBsAg and did not have HCC before starting tenofovir. We estimated the predictive performance of PAGE-B for HCC occurrence over 15 years in patients receiving tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. Model discrimination was assessed after multiple imputation using Cox regression with the prognostic index as a covariate, and by calculating Harrell's c-index. Calibration was assessed by comparing our cumulative incidence with the PAGE-B derivation study using Kaplan-Meier curves. RESULTS: In total, 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy were included. PAGE-B was <10 in 26.5%, 10-17 in 57.7%, and ≥18 in 15.7% of patients. Within a median follow-up of 9.6 years, HCC occurred in 68 individuals (2.58/1,000 patient-years, 95% CI 2.03-3.27). The regression slope of the prognostic index for developing HCC within 15 years was 0.93 (95% CI 0.61-1.25), and the pooled c-index was 0.77 (range 0.73-0.80), both indicating good model discrimination. The cumulative incidence of HCC was lower in our study compared to the derivation study. A PAGE-B cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. Restricting efforts to individuals with a PAGE-B of ≥10 would spare unnecessary HCC screening in 27% of individuals. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection, PAGE-B is a valid tool to determine the need for HCC screening. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Chronic HBV infection is the most important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among people living with HIV. Valid risk prediction may enable better targeting of HCC screening efforts to high-risk individuals. We aimed to validate PAGE-B, a risk prediction tool that is based on age, sex, and platelets, in 2,963 individuals with HIV/HBV coinfection who received tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy. In the present study, PAGE-B showed good discrimination, adequate calibration, and a cut-off of <10 had a negative predictive value of 99.4% for the development of HCC within 5 years. These results indicate that PAGE-B is a simple and valid risk prediction tool to determine the need for HCC screening among people living with HIV and HBV.

High dose gonadotropin stimulation increases endometrial thickness but this gonadotropin induced thickening does not have an effect on implantation.

INTRODUCTION: Endometrial thickness <8 mm is related with lower pregnancy rates. This raises the question if endometrial thickness can be increased by gonadotropin stimulation to increase estradiol (E2) concentration and if such an artificial thickening of the endometrium has an effect on implantation. A model to address this question is the comparison of endometrial thickness and outcome parameters in conventional gonadotropin stimulated IVF (cIVF) compared to unstimulated natural cycle IVF (NC-IVF). MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective study including 235 cIVF and 616 NC-IVF cycles without embryo selection and with fresh transfer on day 2 and 3 from 2015 to 2019. Endometrial and E2 measurements were included and analysed between day -4 and -2 (0 = day of aspiration). The effects of E2 on endometrial thickness, endometrial growth and the effect of endometrial thickness on implantation rates and live births were analysed. RESULTS: Endometrial thickness was found to be higher in cIVF compared to NC-IVF (p < 0.001). On day -2, the day when ovulation was triggered, mean endometrial thickness was 9.75 ± 2.05 mm and 8.12 ± 1.66 mm, respectively. The increase in endometrial thickness slowed down with increasing E2 concentrations (time x estradiol concentration: -0.19, p = 0.010). Implantation rates were not significantly different in cIVF and NC-IVF cycles (clinical pregnancy rate: 19.1% vs. 15.4% p = 0.2; live birth rate: 12.8% vs. 11.7%, p = 0.8). CONCLUSIONS: Endometrial growth dynamic is different and endometrium is thicker in cIVF compared to NC-IVF. Pregnancy and live birth rates are not different. Gonadotropin induced thickening of the endometrium does not appear to improve implantation.

Cost-effectiveness of a structured medication review approach for multimorbid older adults: Within-trial analysis of the OPERAM study.

BACKGROUND: Inappropriate polypharmacy has been linked with adverse outcomes in older, multimorbid adults. OPERAM is a European cluster-randomized trial aimed at testing the effect of a structured pharmacotherapy optimization intervention on preventable drug-related hospital admissions in multimorbid adults with polypharmacy aged 70 years or older. Clinical results of the trial showed a pattern of reduced drug-related hospital admissions, but without statistical significance. In this study we assessed the cost-effectiveness of the pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention. METHODS: We performed a pre-planned within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the OPERAM intervention, from a healthcare system perspective. All data were collected within the trial apart from unit costs. QALYs were computed by applying the crosswalk German valuation algorithm to EQ-5D-5L-based quality of life data. Considering the clustered structure of the data and between-country heterogeneity, we applied Generalized Structural Equation Models (GSEMs) on a multiple imputed sample to estimate costs and QALYs. We also performed analyses by country and subgroup analyses by patient and morbidity characteristics. RESULTS: Trial-wide, the intervention was numerically dominant, with a potential cost-saving of CHF 3'588 (95% confidence interval (CI): -7'716; 540) and gain of 0.025 QALYs (CI: -0.002; 0.052) per patient. Robustness analyses confirmed the validity of the GSEM model. Subgroup analyses suggested stronger effects in people at higher risk. CONCLUSION: We observed a pattern towards dominance, potentially resulting from an accumulation of multiple small positive intervention effects. Our methodological approaches may inform other CEAs of multi-country, cluster-randomized trials facing presence of missing values and heterogeneity between centres/countries.

Development of an electronic Poor Outcome Screening (ePOS) Score to identify critically ill patients with potential palliative care needs.

PURPOSE: To develop and validate an electronic poor outcome screening (ePOS) score to identify critically ill patients with potentially unmet palliative care (PC) needs at 48 hours after ICU admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective single-centre cohort study of 1'772 critically ill adult patients admitted to a tertiary academic ICU in Switzerland between 2017 and 2018. We used data available from electronic health records (EHR) in the first 48 hours and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression to develop a prediction model and generate a score to predict the risk of all cause 6-month mortality. RESULTS: Within 6 months of the ICU admission, 598 patients (33.7%) had died. At a cut-off of 20 points, the ePOS score (range 0-46 points) had a sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.84) and a specificity of 0.51 (0.48 to 0.54) for predicting 6-month mortality and showed good discriminatory performance (AUROC 0.72, 0.67 to 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: The ePOS score can easily be implemented in EHR and can be used for automated screening and stratification of ICU patients, pinpointing those in whom a comprehensive PC assessment should be performed. However, it should not replace clinical judgement.

Optimizing Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older Adults (OPERAM): cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of optimising drug treatment on drug related hospital admissions in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital. DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 110 clusters of inpatient wards within university based hospitals in four European countries (Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, and Republic of Ireland) defined by attending hospital doctors. PARTICIPANTS: 2008 older adults (≥70 years) with multimorbidity (≥3 chronic conditions) and polypharmacy (≥5 drugs used long term). INTERVENTION: Clinical staff clusters were randomised to usual care or a structured pharmacotherapy optimisation intervention performed at the individual level jointly by a doctor and a pharmacist, with the support of a clinical decision software system deploying the screening tool of older person's prescriptions and screening tool to alert to the right treatment (STOPP/START) criteria to identify potentially inappropriate prescribing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Primary outcome was first drug related hospital admission within 12 months. RESULTS: 2008 older adults (median nine drugs) were randomised and enrolled in 54 intervention clusters (963 participants) and 56 control clusters (1045 participants) receiving usual care. In the intervention arm, 86.1% of participants (n=789) had inappropriate prescribing, with a mean of 2.75 (SD 2.24) STOPP/START recommendations for each participant. 62.2% (n=491) had ≥1 recommendation successfully implemented at two months, predominantly discontinuation of potentially inappropriate drugs. In the intervention group, 211 participants (21.9%) experienced a first drug related hospital admission compared with 234 (22.4%) in the control group. In the intention-to-treat analysis censored for death as competing event (n=375, 18.7%), the hazard ratio for first drug related hospital admission was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.17). In the per protocol analysis, the hazard ratio for a drug related hospital admission was 0.91 (0.69 to 1.19). The hazard ratio for first fall was 0.96 (0.79 to 1.15; 237 v 263 first falls) and for death was 0.90 (0.71 to 1.13; 172 v 203 deaths). CONCLUSIONS: Inappropriate prescribing was common in older adults with multimorbidity and polypharmacy admitted to hospital and was reduced through an intervention to optimise pharmacotherapy, but without effect on drug related hospital admissions. Additional efforts are needed to identify pharmacotherapy optimisation interventions that reduce inappropriate prescribing and improve patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02986425.

Development and validation of a score to assess complexity of general internal medicine patients at hospital discharge: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop and validate a score to assess inpatient complexity and compare its performance with two currently used but not validated tools to estimate complexity (ie, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), patient clinical complexity level (PCCL)). METHODS: Consecutive patients discharged from the department of medicine of a tertiary care hospital were prospectively included into a derivation cohort from 1 October 2016 to 16 February 2017 (n=1407), and a temporal validation cohort from 17 February 2017 to 31 March 2017 (n=482). The physician in charge assessed complexity. Potential predictors comprised 52 parameters from the electronic health record such as health factors and hospital care usage. We fit a logistic regression model with backward selection to develop a prediction model and derive a score. We assessed and compared performance of model and score in internal and external validation using measures of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Overall, 447 of 1407 patients (32%) in the derivation cohort, and 116 of 482 patients (24%) in the validation cohort were identified as complex. Eleven variables independently associated with complexity were included in the score. Using a cut-off of ≥24 score points to define high-risk patients, specificity was 81% and sensitivity 57% in the validation cohort. The score's area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.78 in both the derivation and validation cohort. In comparison, the CCI had an AUROC between 0.58 and 0.61, and the PCCL between 0.64 and 0.69, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We derived and internally and externally validated a score that reflects patient complexity in the hospital setting, performed better than other tools and could help monitoring complex patients.

High subcutaneous adipose tissue density correlates negatively with survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Body composition parameters have been reported to add information, which can lead to tailored treatment and prognostication for oncological patients. Data for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are scarce. We assessed the association between different body composition parameters and overall survival (OS) in two different newly diagnosed HCC populations. METHODS: The area (cm2 ) and density (Hounsfield Units [HU]) of skeletal muscle (SM) and adipose tissue (subcutaneous [SAT], visceral [VAT] and intermuscular [IMAT]) were measured on computed tomography (CT) scans at the level of the third lumbar vertebra (L3) in two cohorts of patients diagnosed in different HCC stages (Bern, Switzerland n = 187 and Newcastle, United Kingdom n = 216). Univariate and multivariate Cox regressions analyses were used to assess the crude and adjusted association of body composition parameters with OS. RESULTS: By univariate analysis, in both cohorts, Bern and Newcastle, high SAT density (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.35; 1.12-1.62, P < .001 and 1.44; 1.27-1.63, P < .001, respectively) and high VAT density (HR: 1.38; 1.1-1.72, P = .005 and HR: 1.53; 1.3-1.81, P < .001, respectively) correlated negatively with survival. After model adjustment for potential baseline confounders (gender, age, diabetes, cirrhosis, MELD score, BCLC stage) in a multivariate analysis, SAT density remained associated with mortality in Bern and Newcastle (Bern: HR: 1.27; 1.04-1.57, P = .022; Newcastle: HR: 1.23; 1.03-1.48, P = .022) and VAT remained associated with mortality in Bern (HR: 1.31; 1.05-1.65, P = .019). CONCLUSIONS: Based on two HCC cohorts, our data show that high SAT density correlates negatively with OS in HCC patients.

Randomised clinical trial: the safety and tolerability of fluticasone propionate orally disintegrating tablets versus placebo for eosinophilic oesophagitis.

BACKGROUND: APT-1011, a fluticasone propionate orally disintegrating tablet formulation, is under investigation for the treatment of eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE). AIMS: To evaluate the safety and tolerability of APT-1011 administered to patients with EoE and to assess the effect on clinical symptoms of EoE, endoscopic appearance and oesophageal eosinophilia. METHODS: A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre, phase 1b/2a study was conducted at seven medical centres in the US to evaluate the safety and tolerability of APT-1011 over 8 weeks in adults and adolescents with EoE. Participants were randomised to placebo (n = 8), 1.5 mg APT-1011 BID (n = 8) or 3.0 mg APT-1011 QD (n = 8). Safety and tolerability were assessed as the primary outcome; histologic and endoscopic measures were assessed as exploratory outcomes. RESULTS: There were no deaths, serious treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs), severe TEAEs or discontinuations from the study related to a TEAE. In one participant randomised to 1.5 mg APT-1011 BID, a reduction in cortisol was observed, but without evidence of adrenal insufficiency. Compared with placebo, treatment with APT-1011 resulted in greater reductions in oesophageal eosinophil counts, EoE Endoscopic Reference Score, patient global assessment and symptom-based EoE activity index from baseline to end of treatment (Week 8). CONCLUSIONS: APT-1011 was safe and well tolerated in adolescents and adults with EoE. Exploratory efficacy outcomes demonstrated improvement in histologic and endoscopic findings as well evidence of symptom improvement. The results of this study support the continued development of APT-1011 for the treatment of EoE (NCT-01386112).

Serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentration has limited prognostic value for density of primordial and primary follicles, questioning it as an accurate parameter for the ovarian reserve.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic value of anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels in estimating the ovarian density of primordial and primary follicles, which can be assumed to reflect the real ovarian reserve. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 537 women, average age 30.4 years (range 8.0-43.7 years), underwent ovarian tissue cryopreservation prior to gonadotoxic therapies due to malignant diseases which do not affect ovarian reserve parameters. Standardized ovarian biopsies were obtained, and follicular density was analysed. The prognostic accuracy of serum AMH in estimating ovarian follicle density was evaluated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Histologically determined follicle density, AMH serum concentration and their correlation. RESULTS: In children, follicle density was high but AMH concentration was low. AMH concentration was predicted to be maximum at the age of 15.5 years. In women aged over 15.5 years, the relationship between AMH concentration and follicle density was evaluated. Crude analysis revealed that serum AMH levels and follicular density were moderately correlated (r = 0.34, p < 0.001). From the adjusted regression model the predicted value of follicle density of women aged 20, 30 and 40 years as well as the associated 50 % and 95 % prediction intervals (50 % PI and 95 % PI, respectively) were calculated. For example, for women aged 40 years with a serum AMH level of 1 ng/ml, a follicle density of 2.3/mm3 (50 %PI: [1.1, 4.6]; 95 %PI: [0.3, 18]) was predicted. These large prediction intervals demonstrate the low predictive value of serum AMH for the ovarian follicle density. CONCLUSIONS: Serum AMH levels have limited prognostic value for the follicle density and therefore for the real ovarian reserve.

Best Definitions of Multimorbidity to Identify Patients With High Health Care Resource Utilization.

OBJECTIVE: To compare different definitions of multimorbidity to identify patients with higher health care resource utilization. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used a multinational retrospective cohort including 147,806 medical inpatients discharged from 11 hospitals in 3 countries (United States, Switzerland, and Israel) between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2011. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 8 definitions of multimorbidity, based on International Classification of Diseases codes defining health conditions, the Deyo-Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser-van Walraven Comorbidity Index, body systems, or Clinical Classification Software categories to predict 30-day hospital readmission and/or prolonged length of stay (longer than or equal to the country-specific upper quartile). We used a lower (yielding sensitivity ≥90%) and an upper (yielding specificity ≥60%) cutoff to create risk categories. RESULTS: Definitions had poor to fair discriminatory power in the derivation (AUC, 0.61-0.65) and validation cohorts (AUC, 0.64-0.71). The definitions with the highest AUC were number of (1) health conditions with involvement of 2 or more body systems, (2) body systems, (3) Clinical Classification Software categories, and (4) health conditions. At the upper cutoff, sensitivity and specificity were 65% to 79% and 50% to 53%, respectively, in the validation cohort; of the 147,806 patients, 5% to 12% (7474 to 18,008) were classified at low risk, 38% to 55% (54,484 to 81,540) at intermediate risk, and 32% to 50% (47,331 to 72,435) at high risk. CONCLUSION: Of the 8 definitions of multimorbidity, 4 had comparable discriminatory power to identify patients with higher health care resource utilization. Of these 4, the number of health conditions may represent the easiest definition to apply in clinical routine. The cutoff chosen, favoring sensitivity or specificity, should be determined depending on the aim of the definition.

Variation in Endoscopic Activity Assessment and Endoscopy Score Validation in Adults With Eosinophilic Esophagitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is assessed endoscopically (endoscopic activity), based on grades of edema, rings, exudates, furrows, and strictures (EREFS). We examined variations in endoscopic assessments of severity, developed and validated 3 EREFS-based scoring systems, and assessed responsiveness of these systems using data from a randomized placebo-controlled trial of patients with EoE. METHODS: For the development set, 5 gastroenterologists reviewed EREFS findings from 266 adults with EoE and provided endoscopist global assessment scores (EndoGA, scale of 0 to 10); variation (ΔEndoGA) was assessed using linear regression. We evaluated simple scores (features given arbitrary values from 0 to 3) and developed 2 scoring systems (adjusted score range, 0-100). We then fitted our linear regression model with mean EndoGA to data from 146 adults recruited in centers in Switzerland and the United States between April 2011 and December 2012. For the validation set, we collected data from 120 separate adults (recruited in centers in Switzerland and the United States between May 2013 and July 2014), assessing regression coefficient-based scores using Bland-Altman method. We assessed the responsiveness of our scoring systems using data from a randomized trial of patients with EoE given fluticasone (n=16) or placebo (n=8). RESULTS: The distribution of EndoGA values differed among endoscopists (mean ΔEndoGA, 2.6±1.8; range 0-6.6). We developed 2 regression-based scoring systems to assess overall and proximal and distal esophageal findings; variation in endoscopic features accounted for more than 90% of the mean EndoGA variation. In the validation group, differences between mean EndoGA and regression-based scores were small (ranging from -4.70 to 2.03), indicating good agreement. In analyses of data from the randomized trial, the baseline to end of study change in patients given fluticasone was a reduction of 24.3 in simple score (reduction of 4.6 in patients given placebo, P=.052); a reduction of 23.5 in regression-based overall score (reduction of 6.56 in patients given placebo, P=.12), and a reduction of 23.8 (reduction of 8.44 in patients given placebo, P=.11). CONCLUSION: Assessments of endoscopic activity in patients with EoE vary among endoscopists. In an analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial, we found that newly developed scoring systems are no better than simple scoring system in detecting changes in endoscopic activity. These results support the use of a simple scoring system in evaluation of endoscopic activity in patients with EoE. clinicaltrials.gov no: NCT00939263 and NCT01386112.