Multi-model chain for climate change scenario analysis to support coastal erosion and water quality risk management for the Metropolitan city of Venice.

Under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, hazardous climate and weather events are increasing in frequency and severity, with wide-ranging impacts across ecosystems and landscapes, especially fragile and dynamic coastal zones. The presented multi-model chain approach combines ocean hydrodynamics, wave fields, and shoreline extraction models to build a Bayesian Network-based coastal risk assessment model for the future analysis of shoreline evolution and seawater quality (i.e., suspended particulate matter, diffuse attenuation of light). In particular, the model was designed around a baseline scenario exploiting historical shoreline and oceanographic data within the 2015-2017 timeframe. Shoreline erosion and water quality changes along the coastal area of the Metropolitan city of Venice were evaluated for 2021-2050, under the RCP8.5 future scenario. The results showed a destabilizing trend in both shoreline evolution and seawater quality under the selected climate change scenario. Specifically, after a stable period (2021-2030), the shoreline will be affected by periods of erosion (2031-2040) and then accretion (2041-2050), with a simultaneous decrease in seawater quality in terms of higher turbidity. The decadal analysis and sensitivity evaluation of the input variables demonstrates a strong influence of oceanographic variables on the assessed endpoints, highlighting how the factors are strongly connected. The integration of regional and global climate models with Machine Learning and satellite imagery within the proposed multi-model chain represents an innovative update on state-of-the-art techniques. The validated outputs represent a good promise for better understanding the varying impacts due to future climate change conditions (e.g., wind, wave, tide, and sea-level). Moreover, the flexibility of the approach allows for the quick integration of climate and multi-risk data as it becomes available, and would represent a useful tool for forward-looking coastal risk management for decision-makers.

Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries.

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on a 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that the 2022 hydrological drought is the worst event (30% lower than the second worst, with a six-century return period), part of an increasing trend in severe drought occurrence. The decline in summer river flows (-4.14 cubic meters per second per year), which is more relevant than the precipitation decline, is attributed to a combination of changes in the precipitation regime, resulting in a decline of snow fraction (-0.6% per year) and snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters per day per year), and to increasing evaporation rate (+0.013 cubic kilometers per year) and irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents a compelling case where the hydrological impact of climate change is exacerbated by local changes in hydrologic seasonality and water use.

On the interchangeability of sea-surface and near-surface air temperature anomalies in climatologies.

On global and hemispheric scales, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are assumed to be good surrogates for near-surface marine air temperature (MAT) anomalies. In fact, global gridded temperature datasets commonly blend SST and near-surface air temperature anomalies to overcome the lack of geographically homogeneous and reliable MAT observations. Here, we show that SST and MAT anomalies differ regarding crucial statistical properties such as multiannual trends and probabilistic distributions of daily and monthly averages. We provide evidence of the lack of interchangeability from an array of moored buoys in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We identify statistically significant discrepancies between SST and MAT anomalies for single as well as groups of such buoys. Thus, caution is required when characterizing and interpreting MAT variability through SST observations, especially at shorter than decadal timescale.

Initiation of a stable convective hydroclimatic regime in Central America circa 9000 years BP.

Many Holocene hydroclimate records show rainfall changes that vary with local orbital insolation. However, some tropical regions display rainfall evolution that differs from gradual precessional pacing, suggesting that direct rainfall forcing effects were predominantly driven by sea-surface temperature thresholds or inter-ocean temperature gradients. Here we present a 12,000 yr continuous U/Th-dated precipitation record from a Guatemalan speleothem showing that Central American rainfall increased within a 2000 yr period from a persistently dry state to an active convective regime at 9000 yr BP and has remained strong thereafter. Our data suggest that the Holocene evolution of Central American rainfall was driven by exceeding a temperature threshold in the nearby tropical oceans. The sensitivity of this region to slow changes in radiative forcing is thus strongly mediated by internal dynamics acting on much faster time scales.

Experimental evidence of long-term oceanic circulation reversals without wind influence in the North Ionian Sea.

Under the emerging features of interannual-to-decadal ocean variability, the periodical reversals of the North Ionian Gyre (NIG), driven mostly by the mechanism named Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System (BiOS), are known as impacting on marine physics and biogeochemistry and potentially influencing short-term regional climate predictability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Whilst it has been suggested that local wind forcing cannot explain such variability, aspects of the alternative hypothesis indicating that NIG reversals mainly arises from an internal ocean feedback mechanism alone remain largely debated. Here we demonstrate, using the results of physical experiments, performed in the world's largest rotating tank and numerical simulations, that the main observed feature of BiOS, i.e., the switch of polarity of the near-surface circulation in the NIG, can be induced by a mere injection of dense water on a sloping bottom. Hence, BiOS is a truly oceanic mode of variability and abrupt polarity changes in circulation can arise solely from extreme dense water formation events.

Atlantic origin of asynchronous European interdecadal hydroclimate variability.

Discharge time series of major large-catchment European rivers are known to display significant decadal and interdecadal fluctuations. However, the hydroclimate variability causing such fluctuations remains poorly understood, particularly due to a lack of a spatio-temporal integrated assessment. Here, we demonstrate for the first time that European hydroclimate variability is dominated by a meridional delayed oscillation characterized by a lag of approximately 5 years in interdecadal discharge fluctuations of continental (northern) European rivers with respect to those of Euro-Mediterranean (southern) rivers. We demonstrate a connection of this coherent signal with the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, and suggest a hitherto unexplored multiannual atmosphere-ocean mechanism in the subpolar North Atlantic at its root.

Tidal Records as Liquid Climate Archives for Large-Scale Interior Mediterranean Variability.

Characterization of interior ocean variability is necessary for understanding climate. Water mass evolution shapes ocean-atmosphere interactions and contributes to determine timescales for global and regional climate variability. However, a robust assessment of past state and variability of the ocean interior is prevented by sparseness/shortness of historical subsurface observations and uncertainties affecting proxy-based reconstructions. Here, we propose a novel approach to infer past large-scale interior ocean variability with unprecedented accuracy and temporal resolution. It exploits links between stratification determined by "large-scale" water mass distributions and local dynamics. We characterize interannual interior ocean variability in the Mediterranean Sea in the early 20th century contained in tidal measurements in the Strait of Messina, and demonstrate the general applicability of our method, paving the way to a new approach to analyze historical oceanographic records: Regions where different water masses are known to collide can thus act as magnifying glasses for basin-scale interior ocean variability, hence providing "liquid archives" for climatology.

Linking mixing processes and climate variability to the heat content distribution of the Eastern Mediterranean abyss.

The heat contained in the ocean (OHC) dominates the Earth's energy budget and hence represents a fundamental parameter for understanding climate changes. However, paucity of observational data hampers our knowledge on OHC variability, particularly in abyssal areas. Here, we analyze water characteristics, observed during the last three decades in the abyssal Ionian Sea (Eastern Mediterranean), where two competing convective sources of bottom water exist. We find a heat storage of ~1.6 W/m2 - twice that assessed globally in the same period - exceptionally well-spread throughout the local abyssal layers. Such an OHC accumulation stems from progressive warming and salinification of the Eastern Mediterranean, producing warmer near-bottom waters. We analyze a new process that involves convectively-generated waters reaching the abyss as well as the triggering of a diapycnal mixing due to rough bathymetry, which brings to a warming and thickening of the bottom layer, also influencing water-column potential vorticity. This may affect the prevailing circulation, altering the local cyclonic/anticyclonic long-term variability and hence precondition future water-masses formation and the redistribution of heat along the entire water-column.

Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach.

Decadal climate predictions use initialized coupled model simulations that are typically affected by a drift toward a biased climatology determined by systematic model errors. Model drifts thus reflect a fundamental source of uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. However, their analysis has so far relied on ad-hoc assessments of empirical and subjective character. Here, we define the climate model drift as a dynamical process rather than a descriptive diagnostic. A unified statistical Bayesian framework is proposed where a state-space model is used to decompose systematic decadal climate prediction errors into an initial drift, seasonally varying climatological biases and additional effects of co-varying climate processes. An application to tropical and south Atlantic sea-surface temperatures illustrates how the method allows to evaluate and elucidate dynamic interdependencies between drift, biases, hindcast residuals and background climate. Our approach thus offers a methodology for objective, quantitative and explanatory error estimation in climate predictions.

Biogeochemical, Isotopic and Bacterial Distributions Trace Oceanic Abyssal Circulation.

We explore the possibility of tracing routes of dense waters toward and within the ocean abyss by the use of an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters. To this purpose, we employ mercury, isotopic oxygen, biopolymeric carbon and its constituents, together with indicators of microbial activity and bacterial diversity found in bottom waters of the Eastern Mediterranean. In this basin, which has been considered as a miniature global ocean, two competing sources of bottom water (one in the Adriatic and one in the Aegean seas) contribute to the ventilation of the local abyss. However, due to a recent substantial reduction of the differences in the physical characteristics of these two water masses it has become increasingly complex a water classification using the traditional approach with temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen alone. Here, we show that an extended set of observed physical and biochemical parameters allows recognizing the existence of two different abyssal routes from the Adriatic source and one abyssal route from the Aegean source despite temperature and salinity of such two competing sources of abyssal water being virtually indistinguishable. Moreover, as the near-bottom development of exogenous bacterial communities transported by convectively-generated water masses in the abyss can provide a persistent trace of episodic events, intermittent flows like those generating abyssal waters in the Eastern Mediterranean basin may become detectable beyond the availability of concomitant measurements.

Marine Sediments Remotely Unveil Long-Term Climatic Variability Over Northern Italy.

A deep understanding of natural decadal variability is pivotal to discuss recently observed climate trends. Paleoclimate proxies allow reconstructing natural variations before the instrumental period. Typically, regional-scale reconstructions depend on factors like dating, multi-proxy weighting and calibration, which may lead to non-robust reconstructions. Riverine records inherently integrate information about regional climate variability, partly overcoming the above mentioned limitation. The Po River provides major freshwater input to Eastern Mediterranean, as its catchment encompasses a large part of Northern Italy. Here, using historical discharge data and oceanographic measurements, we show that Po River discharge undergo robust decadal fluctuations that reach the Ionian Sea, ~1,000 km South of Po River delta, through propagating salinity anomalies. Based on this propagation, we use a high-resolution foraminiferal δ(18)O record from a sediment core in the Ionian Sea to reconstruct North Italian hydrological variability on millennial-scale for the first time. The reconstruction reveals highly significant decadal variability that persists over the last 2,000 years. Many reconstructed extremes correspond to documented catastrophic events. Our study provides the first millennial-scale reconstruction of the strength of decadal hydrological variability over Northern Italy. It paves the way to assess the persistence of large-scale circulation fingerprints on the North Italian climate.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.