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1.
Trials ; 25(1): 353, 2024 May 31.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38822392

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs) in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). This paper summarizes key features and conclusions from the various SAVVY papers. METHODS: Summarizing several papers reporting theoretical investigations using simulations and an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, biases from ignoring varying follow-up times or CEs are investigated. The bias of commonly used estimators of the absolute (incidence proportion and one minus Kaplan-Meier) and relative (risk and hazard ratio) AE risk is quantified. Furthermore, we provide a cursory assessment of how pertinent guidelines for the analysis of safety data deal with the features of varying follow-up time and CEs. RESULTS: SAVVY finds that for both, avoiding bias and categorization of evidence with respect to treatment effect on AE risk into categories, the choice of the estimator is key and more important than features of the underlying data such as percentage of censoring, CEs, amount of follow-up, or value of the gold-standard. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. Whenever varying follow-up times and/or CEs are present in the assessment of AEs, SAVVY recommends using the Aalen-Johansen estimator (AJE) with an appropriate definition of CEs to quantify AE risk. There is an urgent need to improve pertinent clinical trial reporting guidelines for reporting AEs so that incidence proportions or one minus Kaplan-Meier estimators are finally replaced by the AJE with appropriate definition of CEs.


Asunto(s)
Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Humanos , Factores de Tiempo , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/normas , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Medición de Riesgo , Proyectos de Investigación/normas , Factores de Riesgo , Efectos Colaterales y Reacciones Adversas Relacionados con Medicamentos , Sesgo , Análisis de Supervivencia , Estudios de Seguimiento , Resultado del Tratamiento , Simulación por Computador , Estimación de Kaplan-Meier
2.
Front Pharmacol ; 15: 1223858, 2024.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38344177

RESUMEN

Introduction: In causal inference, the correct formulation of the scientific question of interest is a crucial step. The purpose of this study was to apply causal inference principles to external control analysis using observational data and illustrate the process to define the estimand attributes. Methods: This study compared long-term survival outcomes of a pooled set of three previously reported randomized phase 3 trials studying patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer receiving front-line chemotherapy and similar patients treated with front-line chemotherapy as part of routine clinical care. Causal inference frameworks were applied to define the estimand aligned with the research question and select the estimator to estimate the estimand of interest. Results: The estimand attributes of the ideal trial were defined using the estimand framework. The target trial framework was used to address specific issues in defining the estimand attributes using observational data from a nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database. The two frameworks combined allow to clearly define the estimand and the aligned estimator while accounting for key baseline confounders, index date, and receipt of subsequent therapies. The hazard ratio estimate (point estimate with 95% confidence interval) comparing the randomized clinical trial pooled control arm with the external control was close to 1, which is indicative of similar survival between the two arms. Discussion: The proposed combined framework provides clarity on the causal contrast of interest and the estimator to adopt, and thus facilitates design and interpretation of the analyses.

3.
Eur J Cancer ; 194: 113278, 2023 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37820553

RESUMEN

Personalised oncology, whereby patients are given therapies based on their molecular tumour profile, is rapidly becoming an essential part of optimal clinical care, at least partly facilitated by recent advances in next-generation sequencing-based technology using liquid- and tissue-based biopsies. Consequently, clinical trials have shifted in approach, from traditional studies evaluating cytotoxic chemotherapy in largely histology-based populations to modified, biomarker-driven studies (e.g. basket, umbrella, platform) of molecularly guided therapies and cancer immunotherapies in selected patient subsets. Such modified study designs may assess, within the same trial structure, multiple cancer types and treatments, and should incorporate a multistakeholder perspective. This is key to generating complementary, fit-for-purpose and timely evidence for molecularly guided therapies that can be used as proof-of-concept to inform further study designs, lead to approval by regulatory authorities and be used as confirmation of clinical benefit for health technology assessment bodies. In general, the future of cancer clinical trials requires a framework for the application of innovative technologies and dynamic design methodologies, in order to efficiently transform scientific discoveries into clinical utility. Next-generation, modified studies that involve the joint efforts of all key stakeholders will offer individualised strategies that ultimately contribute to globalised knowledge and collective learning. In this review, we outline the background and purpose of such modified study designs and detail key aspects from a multistakeholder perspective. We also provide methodological considerations for designing the studies and highlight how insights from already-ongoing studies may address current challenges and opportunities in the era of personalised oncology.


Asunto(s)
Oncología Médica , Neoplasias , Humanos , Oncología Médica/métodos , Neoplasias/terapia , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Medicina de Precisión/métodos , Proyectos de Investigación
4.
Pharm Stat ; 22(4): 671-691, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36970778

RESUMEN

For the analysis of a time-to-event endpoint in a single-arm or randomized clinical trial it is generally perceived that interpretation of a given estimate of the survival function, or the comparison between two groups, hinges on some quantification of the amount of follow-up. Typically, a median of some loosely defined quantity is reported. However, whatever median is reported, is typically not answering the question(s) trialists actually have in terms of follow-up quantification. In this paper, inspired by the estimand framework, we formulate a comprehensive list of relevant scientific questions that trialists have when reporting time-to-event data. We illustrate how these questions should be answered, and that reference to an unclearly defined follow-up quantity is not needed at all. In drug development, key decisions are made based on randomized controlled trials, and we therefore also discuss relevant scientific questions not only when looking at a time-to-event endpoint in one group, but also for comparisons. We find that different thinking about some of the relevant scientific questions around follow-up is required depending on whether a proportional hazards assumption can be made or other patterns of survival functions are anticipated, for example, delayed separation, crossing survival functions, or the potential for cure. We conclude the paper with practical recommendations.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Estudios de Seguimiento , Oncología Médica , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Factores de Tiempo , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto
5.
Clin Pharmacol Ther ; 112(6): 1183-1190, 2022 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35253205

RESUMEN

Since the release of the ICH E9(R1) (International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use Addendum on Estimands and Sensitivity Analysis in Clinical Trials to the Guideline on Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials) document in 2019, the estimand framework has become a fundamental part of clinical trial protocols. In parallel, complex innovative designs have gained increased popularity in drug development, in particular in early development phases or in difficult experimental situations. While the estimand framework is relevant to any study in which a treatment effect is estimated, experience is lacking as regards its application to these designs. In a basket trial for example, should a different estimand be specified for each subpopulation of interest, defined, for example, by cancer site? Or can a single estimand focusing on the general population (defined, for example, by the positivity to a certain biomarker) be used? In the case of platform trials, should a different estimand be proposed for each drug investigated? In this work we discuss possible ways of implementing the estimand framework for different types of complex innovative designs. We consider trials that allow adding or selecting experimental treatment arms, modifying the control arm or the standard of care, and selecting or pooling populations. We also address the potentially data-driven, adaptive selection of estimands in an ongoing trial and disentangle certain statistical issues that pertain to estimation rather than to estimands, such as the borrowing of nonconcurrent information. We hope this discussion will facilitate the implementation of the estimand framework and its description in the study protocol when the objectives of the trial require complex innovative designs.


Asunto(s)
Desarrollo de Medicamentos , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Interpretación Estadística de Datos
6.
Stat Med ; 41(5): 877-890, 2022 02 28.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35023184

RESUMEN

Adapting the final sample size of a trial to the evidence accruing during the trial is a natural way to address planning uncertainty. Since the sample size is usually determined by an argument based on the power of the trial, an interim analysis raises the question of how the final sample size should be determined conditional on the accrued information. To this end, we first review and compare common approaches to estimating conditional power, which is often used in heuristic sample size recalculation rules. We then discuss the connection of heuristic sample size recalculation and optimal two-stage designs, demonstrating that the latter is the superior approach in a fully preplanned setting. Hence, unplanned design adaptations should only be conducted as reaction to trial-external new evidence, operational needs to violate the originally chosen design, or post hoc changes in the optimality criterion but not as a reaction to trial-internal data. We are able to show that commonly discussed sample size recalculation rules lead to paradoxical adaptations where an initially planned optimal design is not invariant under the adaptation rule even if the planning assumptions do not change. Finally, we propose two alternative ways of reacting to newly emerging trial-external evidence in ways that are consistent with the originally planned design to avoid such inconsistencies.


Asunto(s)
Amigos , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Tamaño de la Muestra , Incertidumbre
7.
Pharm Stat ; 21(1): 150-162, 2022 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34605168

RESUMEN

An addendum of the ICH E9 guideline on Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials was released in November 2019 introducing the estimand framework. This new framework aims to align trial objectives and statistical analyses by requiring a precise definition of the inferential quantity of interest, that is, the estimand. This definition explicitly accounts for intercurrent events, such as switching to new anticancer therapies for the analysis of overall survival (OS), the gold standard in oncology. Traditionally, OS in confirmatory studies is analyzed using the intention-to-treat (ITT) approach comparing treatment groups as they were initially randomized regardless of whether treatment switching occurred and regardless of any subsequent therapy (treatment-policy strategy). Regulatory authorities and other stakeholders often consider ITT results as most relevant. However, the respective estimand only yields a clinically meaningful comparison of two treatment arms if subsequent therapies are already approved and reflect clinical practice. We illustrate different scenarios where subsequent therapies are not yet approved drugs and thus do not reflect clinical practice. In such situations the hypothetical strategy could be more meaningful from patient's and prescriber's perspective. The cross-industry Oncology Estimand Working Group (www.oncoestimand.org) was initiated to foster a common understanding and consistent implementation of the estimand framework in oncology clinical trials. This paper summarizes the group's recommendations for appropriate estimands in the presence of treatment switching, one of the key intercurrent events in oncology clinical trials. We also discuss how different choices of estimands may impact study design, data collection, trial conduct, analysis, and interpretation.


Asunto(s)
Neoplasias , Cambio de Tratamiento , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Humanos , Oncología Médica , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Proyectos de Investigación
8.
Trials ; 22(1): 420, 2021 Jun 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34187527

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs), whether prespecified or emerging, in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). Although statistical methodologies have advanced, in AE analyses, often the incidence proportion, the incidence density, or a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator are used, which ignore either censoring or CEs. In an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, these potential sources of bias are investigated. The main purpose is to compare the estimators that are typically used to quantify AE risk within trial arms to the non-parametric Aalen-Johansen estimator as the gold-standard for estimating cumulative AE probabilities. A follow-up paper will consider consequences when comparing safety between treatment groups. METHODS: Estimators are compared with descriptive statistics, graphical displays, and a more formal assessment using a random effects meta-analysis. The influence of different factors on the size of deviations from the gold-standard is investigated in a meta-regression. Comparisons are conducted at the maximum follow-up time and at earlier evaluation times. CEs definition does not only include death before AE but also end of follow-up for AEs due to events related to the disease course or safety of the treatment. RESULTS: Ten sponsor organizations provided 17 clinical trials including 186 types of investigated AEs. The one minus Kaplan-Meier estimator was on average about 1.2-fold larger than the Aalen-Johansen estimator and the probability transform of the incidence density ignoring CEs was even 2-fold larger. The average bias using the incidence proportion was less than 5%. Assuming constant hazards using incidence densities was hardly an issue provided that CEs were accounted for. The meta-regression showed that the bias depended mainly on the amount of censoring and on the amount of CEs. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. We recommend using the Aalen-Johansen estimator with an appropriate definition of CEs whenever the risk for AEs is to be quantified and to change the guidelines accordingly.


Asunto(s)
Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Incidencia , Probabilidad , Análisis de Supervivencia
9.
Adv Ther ; 38(7): 3489-3505, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34041708

RESUMEN

Follicular lymphoma (FL) is one of the most common subtypes of non-Hodgkin lymphoma worldwide. Improved survival outcomes with rituximab-based therapy in clinical trials led to the establishment of rituximab-based immunochemotherapy as standard of care for first-line (1L) treatment of FL. In the GALLIUM trial, obinutuzumab-based immunochemotherapy demonstrated improved progression-free survival (PFS), prolonged time-to-next antilymphoma treatment (TTNT) and comparable overall survival (OS) compared with rituximab-based immunochemotherapy as 1L treatment for FL. Using GALLIUM as an example, this article aims to explain how improved outcomes in 1L treatment of FL have changed the landscape for the design and interpretation of future trials. As approved therapies for 1L FL already achieve good responses, it is becoming more difficult to design trials that demonstrate further treatment benefits with the currently accepted primary endpoints. New endpoints are needed to reflect the long remission times, low relapse rates, and impact of subsequent therapies in FL. PFS is used as a primary efficacy endpoint in registrational clinical trials for indolent malignancies like FL, where improvement in OS is not always observed due to the large number of patients and long study duration required to demonstrate a clear survival benefit. However, there are limitations to using PFS as the primary endpoint. Other potential endpoints, including TTNT, progression of disease within 2 years, response rate, and minimal residual disease status are explored.


Asunto(s)
Linfoma Folicular , Linfoma no Hodgkin , Protocolos de Quimioterapia Combinada Antineoplásica/uso terapéutico , Ensayos Clínicos Fase III como Asunto , Humanos , Linfoma Folicular/tratamiento farmacológico , Linfoma no Hodgkin/tratamiento farmacológico , Recurrencia Local de Neoplasia , Rituximab/uso terapéutico
10.
Pharm Stat ; 20(4): 793-805, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33686762

RESUMEN

The estimand framework included in the addendum to the ICH E9 guideline facilitates discussions to ensure alignment between the key question of interest, the analysis, and interpretation. Therapeutic knowledge and drug mechanism play a crucial role in determining the strategy and defining the estimand for clinical trial designs. Clinical trials in patients with hematological malignancies often present unique challenges for trial design due to complexity of treatment options and existence of potential curative but highly risky procedures, for example, stem cell transplant or treatment sequence across different phases (induction, consolidation, maintenance). Here, we illustrate how to apply the estimand framework in hematological clinical trials and how the estimand framework can address potential difficulties in trial result interpretation. This paper is a result of a cross-industry collaboration to connect the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) E9 addendum concepts to applications. Three randomized phase 3 trials will be used to consider common challenges including intercurrent events in hematologic oncology trials to illustrate different scientific questions and the consequences of the estimand choice for trial design, data collection, analysis, and interpretation. Template language for describing estimand in both study protocols and statistical analysis plans is suggested for statisticians' reference.


Asunto(s)
Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Neoplasias , Proyectos de Investigación , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Humanos
11.
Pharm Stat ; 20(4): 737-751, 2021 07.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33624407

RESUMEN

A randomized trial allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention compared to a control in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by baseline characteristics. Often, however, clinical questions also arise regarding the treatment effect in subpopulations of patients, which would experience clinical or disease related events post-randomization. Events that occur after treatment initiation and potentially affect the interpretation or the existence of the measurements are called intercurrent events in the ICH E9(R1) guideline. If the intercurrent event is a consequence of treatment, randomization alone is no longer sufficient to meaningfully estimate the treatment effect. Analyses comparing the subgroups of patients without the intercurrent events for intervention and control will not estimate a causal effect. This is well known, but post-hoc analyses of this kind are commonly performed in drug development. An alternative approach is the principal stratum strategy, which classifies subjects according to their potential occurrence of an intercurrent event on both study arms. We illustrate with examples that questions formulated through principal strata occur naturally in drug development and argue that approaching these questions with the ICH E9(R1) estimand framework has the potential to lead to more transparent assumptions as well as more adequate analyses and conclusions. In addition, we provide an overview of assumptions required for estimation of effects in principal strata. Most of these assumptions are unverifiable and should hence be based on solid scientific understanding. Sensitivity analyses are needed to assess robustness of conclusions.


Asunto(s)
Desarrollo de Medicamentos , Proyectos de Investigación , Causalidad , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Humanos
12.
Am Stat ; 75(4): 424-432, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34992303

RESUMEN

Sample size derivation is a crucial element of planning any confirmatory trial. The required sample size is typically derived based on constraints on the maximal acceptable Type I error rate and minimal desired power. Power depends on the unknown true effect and tends to be calculated either for the smallest relevant effect or a likely point alternative. The former might be problematic if the minimal relevant effect is close to the null, thus requiring an excessively large sample size, while the latter is dubious since it does not account for the a priori uncertainty about the likely alternative effect. A Bayesian perspective on sample size derivation for a frequentist trial can reconcile arguments about the relative a priori plausibility of alternative effects with ideas based on the relevance of effect sizes. Many suggestions as to how such "hybrid" approaches could be implemented in practice have been put forward. However, key quantities are often defined in subtly different ways in the literature. Starting from the traditional entirely frequentist approach to sample size derivation, we derive consistent definitions for the most commonly used hybrid quantities and highlight connections, before discussing and demonstrating their use in sample size derivation for clinical trials.

13.
Biom J ; 63(3): 650-670, 2021 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33145854

RESUMEN

The assessment of safety is an important aspect of the evaluation of new therapies in clinical trials, with analyses of adverse events being an essential part of this. Standard methods for the analysis of adverse events such as the incidence proportion, that is the number of patients with a specific adverse event out of all patients in the treatment groups, do not account for both varying follow-up times and competing risks. Alternative approaches such as the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cumulative incidence function have been suggested. Theoretical arguments and numerical evaluations support the application of these more advanced methodology, but as yet there is to our knowledge only insufficient empirical evidence whether these methods would lead to different conclusions in safety evaluations. The Survival analysis for AdVerse events with VarYing follow-up times (SAVVY) project strives to close this gap in evidence by conducting a meta-analytical study to assess the impact of the methodology on the conclusion of the safety assessment empirically. Here we present the rationale and statistical concept of the empirical study conducted as part of the SAVVY project. The statistical methods are presented in unified notation, and examples of their implementation in R and SAS are provided.


Asunto(s)
Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Incidencia , Análisis de Supervivencia
14.
J Patient Rep Outcomes ; 4(1): 68, 2020 Aug 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32833083

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Published in 2019, a new addendum to the ICH E9 guideline presents the estimand framework as a systematic approach to ensure alignment among clinical trial objectives, trial execution/conduct, statistical analyses, and interpretation of results. The use of the estimand framework for describing clinical trial objectives has yet to be extensively considered in the context of patient-reported outcomes (PROs). We discuss the application of the estimand framework to PRO objectives when designing clinical trials in the future, with a focus on PRO outcomes in oncology trial settings as our example. MAIN: We describe the components of an estimand and take a naïve PRO trial objective to illustrate how to apply attributes described in the estimand framework to inform construction of a detailed clinical trial objective and its related estimand. We discuss identifying potential post-randomization events that alter the interpretation of the endpoint or render its observation impossible (also defined as intercurrent events) in the context of PRO endpoints, and the implications of how to handle intercurrent events in the construction of the PRO objective. Using a simple objective statement, "What is the effect of treatment X on patient's quality of life?", we build up an example estimand statement and also use a previously published phase III oncology clinical trial to illustrate how an estimand for a PRO objective could have been written to align to the estimate framework. CONCLUSION: The use of the estimand framework, as described in the new ICH E9 (R1) addendum guideline will become a key common framework for developing clinical trial objectives for evaluating effects of treatment. In the context of considering PROs, the framework provides an opportunity to more precisely specify and build the rationale for patient-focused objectives. This will help to ensure that clinical trials used for registration are designed and analysed appropriately, enabling all stakeholders to accurately interpret conclusions about the treatment effects for patient-focused outcomes.

15.
Stat Biopharm Res ; 12(4): 427-437, 2020 Jul 14.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34191975

RESUMEN

Abstract-Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 on patient journeys in oncology represents a new risk to interpretation of trial results and its broad applicability for future clinical practice. We identify key intercurrent events (ICEs) that may occur due to COVID-19 in oncology clinical trials with a focus on time-to-event endpoints and discuss considerations pertaining to the other estimand attributes introduced in the ICH E9 addendum. We propose strategies to handle COVID-19 related ICEs, depending on their relationship with malignancy and treatment and the interpretability of data after them. We argue that the clinical trial objective from a world without COVID-19 pandemic remains valid. The estimand framework provides a common language to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in a structured and transparent manner. This demonstrates that the applicability of the framework may even go beyond what it was initially intended for.

16.
Biom J ; 62(3): 550-567, 2020 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31310368

RESUMEN

The development of oncology drugs progresses through multiple phases, where after each phase, a decision is made about whether to move a molecule forward. Early phase efficacy decisions are often made on the basis of single-arm studies based on a set of rules to define whether the tumor improves ("responds"), remains stable, or progresses (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors [RECIST]). These decision rules are implicitly assuming some form of surrogacy between tumor response and long-term endpoints like progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS). With the emergence of new therapies, for which the link between RECIST tumor response and long-term endpoints is either not accessible yet, or the link is weaker than with classical chemotherapies, tumor response-based rules may not be optimal. In this paper, we explore the use of a multistate model for decision-making based on single-arm early phase trials. The multistate model allows to account for more information than the simple RECIST response status, namely, the time to get to response, the duration of response, the PFS time, and time to death. We propose to base the decision on efficacy on the OS hazard ratio (HR) comparing historical control to data from the experimental treatment, with the latter predicted from a multistate model based on early phase data with limited survival follow-up. Using two case studies, we illustrate feasibility of the estimation of such an OS HR. We argue that, in the presence of limited follow-up and small sample size, and making realistic assumptions within the multistate model, the OS prediction is acceptable and may lead to better early decisions within the development of a drug.


Asunto(s)
Biometría/métodos , Toma de Decisiones Clínicas , Modelos Estadísticos , Neoplasias/tratamiento farmacológico , Humanos , Resultado del Tratamiento
17.
Pharm Stat ; 19(1): 44-58, 2020 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31461220

RESUMEN

For a trial with primary endpoint overall survival for a molecule with curative potential, statistical methods that rely on the proportional hazards assumption may underestimate the power and the time to final analysis. We show how a cure proportion model can be used to get the necessary number of events and appropriate timing via simulation. If phase 1 results for the new drug are exceptional and/or the medical need in the target population is high, a phase 3 trial might be initiated after phase 1. Building in a futility interim analysis into such a pivotal trial may mitigate the uncertainty of moving directly to phase 3. However, if cure is possible, overall survival might not be mature enough at the interim to support a futility decision. We propose to base this decision on an intermediate endpoint that is sufficiently associated with survival. Planning for such an interim can be interpreted as making a randomized phase 2 trial a part of the pivotal trial: If stopped at the interim, the trial data would be analyzed, and a decision on a subsequent phase 3 trial would be made. If the trial continues at the interim, then the phase 3 trial is already underway. To select a futility boundary, a mechanistic simulation model that connects the intermediate endpoint and survival is proposed. We illustrate how this approach was used to design a pivotal randomized trial in acute myeloid leukemia and discuss historical data that informed the simulation model and operational challenges when implementing it.


Asunto(s)
Leucemia Mieloide Aguda/tratamiento farmacológico , Modelos Estadísticos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/métodos , Proyectos de Investigación , Ensayos Clínicos Fase II como Asunto/métodos , Ensayos Clínicos Fase III como Asunto/métodos , Simulación por Computador , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Desarrollo de Medicamentos , Determinación de Punto Final , Humanos , Tasa de Supervivencia , Incertidumbre
18.
Rheumatology (Oxford) ; 59(6): 1381-1390, 2020 06 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31600395

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Assessment of combined semi-axial and semi-coronal SI joint MRI in two cohorts of young athletes to explore frequency and topography of non-specific bone marrow oedema (BMO), its association with four constitutional SI joint features, and potential restriction of false-positive assignments of Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society-defined sacroiliitis on standard semi-coronal scans alone. METHODS: Combined semi-axial and semi-coronal SI joint MRI scans of 20 recreational runners before/after running and 22 elite ice-hockey players were evaluated by three blinded readers for BMO and its association with four constitutional SI joint features: vascular partial volume effect, deep iliac ligament insertion, fluid-filled bone cyst and lumbosacral transitional anomaly. Scans of TNF-treated spondyloarthritis patients served to mask readers. We analysed distribution and topography of BMO and SI joint features across eight anatomical SI joint regions (upper/lower ilium/sacrum, subdivided in anterior/posterior slices) descriptively, as concordantly recorded by ⩾2/3 readers on both MRI planes. BMO confirmed on both scans was compared with previous evaluation of semi-coronal MRI alone, which met the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society definition for active sacroiliitis. RESULTS: Perpendicular semi-axial and semi-coronal MRI scans confirmed BMO in the SI joint of every fourth young athlete, preferentially in the anterior upper sacrum. BMO associated with four constitutional SI joint features was observed in 20-36% of athletes, clustering in the posterior lower ilium. The proportion of Assessment of SpondyloArthritis International Society-positive sacroiliitis recorded on the semi-coronal plane alone decreased by 33-56% upon amending semi-axial scans. CONCLUSION: Semi-axial combined with standard semi-coronal scans in MRI protocols for sacroiliitis facilitated recognition of non-specific BMO, which clustered in posterior lower ilium/anterior upper sacrum.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades de la Médula Ósea/diagnóstico por imagen , Edema/diagnóstico por imagen , Hockey/lesiones , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética/estadística & datos numéricos , Carrera/lesiones , Sacroileítis/diagnóstico por imagen , Adolescente , Adulto , Atletas , Enfermedades de la Médula Ósea/etiología , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Edema/etiología , Reacciones Falso Positivas , Femenino , Humanos , Ilion/diagnóstico por imagen , Región Lumbosacra/diagnóstico por imagen , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética/métodos , Imagen por Resonancia Magnética/normas , Masculino , Articulación Sacroiliaca/diagnóstico por imagen , Sacroileítis/etiología , Sacro/diagnóstico por imagen , Método Simple Ciego , Adulto Joven
19.
Stat Med ; 38(22): 4270-4289, 2019 09 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31273817

RESUMEN

In this paper, we derive the joint distribution of progression-free and overall survival as a function of transition probabilities in a multistate model. No assumptions on copulae or latent event times are needed and the model is allowed to be non-Markov. From the joint distribution, statistics of interest can then be computed. As an example, we provide closed formulas and statistical inference for Pearson's correlation coefficient between progression-free and overall survival in a parametric framework. The example is inspired by recent approaches to quantify the dependence between progression-free survival, a common primary outcome in Phase 3 trials in oncology and overall survival. We complement these approaches by providing methods of statistical inference while at the same time working within a much more parsimonious modeling framework. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to other measures of dependence. We also discuss extensions to nonparametric inference. Our analytical results are illustrated using a large randomized clinical trial in breast cancer.


Asunto(s)
Supervivencia sin Enfermedad , Modelos Estadísticos , Supervivencia sin Progresión , Simulación por Computador , Humanos , Funciones de Verosimilitud , Cadenas de Markov , Probabilidad , Análisis de Supervivencia
20.
Pharm Stat ; 18(2): 145-165, 2019 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30478869

RESUMEN

A draft addendum to ICH E9 has been released for public consultation in August 2017. The addendum focuses on two topics particularly relevant for randomized confirmatory clinical trials: estimands and sensitivity analyses. The need to amend ICH E9 grew out of the realization of a lack of alignment between the objectives of a clinical trial stated in the protocol and the accompanying quantification of the "treatment effect" reported in a regulatory submission. We embed time-to-event endpoints in the estimand framework and discuss how the four estimand attributes described in the addendum apply to time-to-event endpoints. We point out that if the proportional hazards assumption is not met, the estimand targeted by the most prevalent methods used to analyze time-to-event endpoints, logrank test, and Cox regression depends on the censoring distribution. We discuss for a large randomized clinical trial how the analyses for the primary and secondary endpoints as well as the sensitivity analyses actually performed in the trial can be seen in the context of the addendum. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to do so for a trial with a time-to-event endpoint. Questions that remain open with the addendum for time-to-event endpoints and beyond are formulated, and recommendations for planning of future trials are given. We hope that this will provide a contribution to developing a common framework based on the final version of the addendum that can be applied to design, protocols, statistical analysis plans, and clinical study reports in the future.


Asunto(s)
Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Determinación de Punto Final , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto/métodos , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Proyectos de Investigación , Factores de Tiempo
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