Spreading pathways of Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station wastewater in and around Cape Cod Bay: Estimates from ocean drifter observations.

Near-surface drifter observations were used to study the spreading pathways in and around the Cape Cod Bay from a source region located just offshore of the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station. The study was motivated by the recent closing of the power plant and a possible release of accumulated wastewater. The investigation applies several different techniques to the drifter data set to estimate and quantify various aspects of the circulation and spreading. Our goal was two-fold: first, to better understand and predict the fate of the Pilgrim wastewater should it be released; and second, to review, compare, and contrast several useful techniques that can be applied to drifter datasets in other parts of the global ocean. Our analysis suggests weaker spreading of the wastewater plume inside the Bay than outside, and sensitivity of the advection pathways to the location of the release. Statistical techniques predicted that part of the plume would likely be advected cyclonically around the inner coastline of the Bay towards the more quiescent eastern regions, while another part of the plume would likely pass close to the tip of Cape Cod and the beaches of the Outer Cape. For the soluble radionuclides, the levels observed in our statistical model offshore of Provincetown and Dennis/Brewster will be at least 100 times smaller than the initial concentrations.

Identifying finite-time coherent sets from limited quantities of Lagrangian data.

A data-driven procedure for identifying the dominant transport barriers in a time-varying flow from limited quantities of Lagrangian data is presented. Our approach partitions state space into coherent pairs, which are sets of initial conditions chosen to minimize the number of trajectories that "leak" from one set to the other under the influence of a stochastic flow field during a pre-specified interval in time. In practice, this partition is computed by solving an optimization problem to obtain a pair of functions whose signs determine set membership. From prior experience with synthetic, "data rich" test problems, and conceptually related methods based on approximations of the Perron-Frobenius operator, we observe that the functions of interest typically appear to be smooth. We exploit this property by using the basis sets associated with spectral or "mesh-free" methods, and as a result, our approach has the potential to more accurately approximate these functions given a fixed amount of data. In practice, this could enable better approximations of the coherent pairs in problems with relatively limited quantities of Lagrangian data, which is usually the case with experimental geophysical data. We apply this method to three examples of increasing complexity: The first is the double gyre, the second is the Bickley Jet, and the third is data from numerically simulated drifters in the Sulu Sea.

Fukushima-derived radionuclides in the ocean and biota off Japan.

The Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011, resulted in unprecedented radioactivity releases from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plants to the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Results are presented here from an international study of radionuclide contaminants in surface and subsurface waters, as well as in zooplankton and fish, off Japan in June 2011. A major finding is detection of Fukushima-derived (134)Cs and (137)Cs throughout waters 30-600 km offshore, with the highest activities associated with near-shore eddies and the Kuroshio Current acting as a southern boundary for transport. Fukushima-derived Cs isotopes were also detected in zooplankton and mesopelagic fish, and unique to this study we also find (110 m)Ag in zooplankton. Vertical profiles are used to calculate a total inventory of ~2 PBq (137)Cs in an ocean area of 150,000 km(2). Our results can only be understood in the context of our drifter data and an oceanographic model that shows rapid advection of contaminants further out in the Pacific. Importantly, our data are consistent with higher estimates of the magnitude of Fukushima fallout and direct releases [Stohl et al. (2011) Atmos Chem Phys Discuss 11:28319-28394; Bailly du Bois et al. (2011) J Environ Radioact, 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.11.015]. We address risks to public health and marine biota by showing that though Cs isotopes are elevated 10-1,000× over prior levels in waters off Japan, radiation risks due to these radionuclides are below those generally considered harmful to marine animals and human consumers, and even below those from naturally occurring radionuclides.

Mode filters and energy conservation.

The discrete form of the mode filtering problem is considered. The relevant equations constitute a linear inverse problem. Solutions to problems of this type are subject to a well-known trade-off between resolution and precision. But unlike the typical linear inverse problem, the correctly formulated mode filtering problem is subject to an energy conservation constraint. This letter focuses on the importance of satisfying, approximately at least, the energy conservation constraint when mode filtering is performed.

Invariant-tori-like Lagrangian coherent structures in geophysical flows.

The term "Lagrangian coherent structure" (LCS) is normally used to describe numerically detected structures whose properties are similar to those of stable and unstable manifolds of hyperbolic trajectories. The latter structures are invariant curves, i.e., material curves of fluid that serve as transport barriers. In this paper we use the term LCS to describe a different type of structure whose properties are similar to those of invariant tori in certain classes of two-dimensional incompressible flows. Like stable and unstable manifolds, invariant tori are invariant curves that serve as transport barriers. There are many differences, however, between traditional LCSs and invariant-tori-like LCSs. These differences are discussed with an emphasis on numerical techniques that can be used to identify invariant-tori-like LCSs. Structures of this type are often present in geophysical flows where zonal jets are present. A prime example of an invariant-torus-like LCS is the transport barrier near the core of the polar night jet in the Earth's lower and middle stratospheres in the austral winter and early spring; this is the barrier that traps ozone-depleted air inside the ozone hole. This example is investigated using both a simple analytically prescribed flow and a velocity field produced by a general circulation model of the Earth's atmosphere.

On the width of a ray.

Consistent with earlier work by Kravtsov and Orlov, a simple general expression for the width of a Fresnel zone deltar(F) in a smooth inhomogeneous environment is derived; this is the diffractive contribution to the width of a ray. In a stratified environment at long range, the general Fresnel zone width expression is shown to reduce approximately to one that is proportional to [equation in text] where alpha is the ray stability parameter, sigma is the acoustic frequency, r is the range from the source to the field point of interest, and R is the source to receiver range. In a stratified environment on which a weak small-scale perturbation is superimposed, deterministic rays in the background environment that connect fixed end points break up into bundles of micromultipaths at moderate to long range and a second, scattering-induced, contribution deltar(s) to the width of a ray must be considered. It is shown that deltar(s) is proportional to /alpha/r(R-r) and argued that in a micromultipathing environment the total effective width of a background ray is deltar(tot)= [equation in text] . Theoretical predictions are shown to agree well with travel-time sensitivity kernel calculations.