The human impact on North American erosion, sediment transfer, and storage in a geologic context.

Humans are primary agents of geomorphic change, and rates of anthropogenic landscape change likely far exceed the pace of change expected from natural geologic processes. Nevertheless, our understanding of the impact of humans on the natural landscape is limited by difficulties in accurately comparing past and present rates of change across wide spatial and temporal scales. Here, we present a compilation of  >4000 rates of alluvial sediment accumulation that provide an indirect record of North American erosion, mass transfer and sediment storage from the late Pleistocene to the present day. Continent-wide rates of alluvium accumulation were broadly stable for ~40,000 years, but increased 10-fold during the rapid expansion of agriculture and river system modification associated with European colonization. Interpreted in terms of mass transfer, humans have moved as much sediment in North America in the past century as natural processes can transfer in 700-3000 years.

Infaunal augurs of the Cambrian explosion: An Ediacaran trace fossil assemblage from Nevada, USA.

Morphologically complex trace fossils, recording the infaunal activities of bilaterian animals, are common in Phanerozoic successions but rare in the Ediacaran fossil record. Here, we describe a trace fossil assemblage from the lower Dunfee Member of the Deep Spring Formation at Mount Dunfee (Nevada, USA), over 500 m below the Ediacaran-Cambrian boundary. Although millimetric in scale and largely not fabric-disruptive, the Dunfee assemblage includes complex and sediment-penetrative trace fossil morphologies that are characteristic of Cambrian deposits. The Dunfee assemblage records one of the oldest documented instances of sediment-penetrative infaunalization, corroborating previous molecular, ichnologic, and paleoecological data suggesting that crown-group bilaterians and bilaterian-style ecologies were present in late Ediacaran shallow marine ecosystems. Moreover, Dunfee trace fossils co-occur with classic upper Ediacaran tubular body fossils in multiple horizons, indicating that Ediacaran infauna and epifauna coexisted and likely formed stable ecosystems.

A high-resolution summary of Cambrian to Early Triassic marine invertebrate biodiversity.

One great challenge in understanding the history of life is resolving the influence of environmental change on biodiversity. Simulated annealing and genetic algorithms were used to synthesize data from 11,000 marine fossil species, collected from more than 3000 stratigraphic sections, to generate a new Cambrian to Triassic biodiversity curve with an imputed temporal resolution of 26 ± 14.9 thousand years. This increased resolution clarifies the timing of known diversification and extinction events. Comparative analysis suggests that partial pressure of carbon dioxide (Pco2) is the only environmental factor that seems to display a secular pattern similar to that of biodiversity, but this similarity was not confirmed when autocorrelation within that time series was analyzed by detrending. These results demonstrate that fossil data can provide the temporal and taxonomic resolutions necessary to test (paleo)biological hypotheses at a level of detail approaching those of long-term ecological analyses.

Pacing of Paleozoic macroevolutionary rates by Milankovitch grand cycles.

Periodic fluctuations in past biodiversity, speciation, and extinction have been proposed, with extremely long periods ranging from 26 to 62 million years, although forcing mechanisms remain speculative. In contrast, well-understood periodic Milankovitch climate forcing represents a viable driver for macroevolutionary fluctuations, although little evidence for such fluctuation exists except during the Late Cenozoic. The reality, magnitude, and drivers of periodic fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates are of interest given long-standing debate surrounding the relative roles of intrinsic biotic interactions vs. extrinsic environmental factors as drivers of biodiversity change. Here, we show that, over a time span of 60 million years, between 9 and 16% of the variance in biological turnover (i.e., speciation probability plus species extinction probability) in a major Early Paleozoic zooplankton group, the graptoloids, can be explained by long-period astronomical cycles (Milankovitch "grand cycles") associated with Earth's orbital eccentricity (2.6 million years) and obliquity (1.3 million years). These grand cycles modulate climate variability, alternating times of relative stability in the environment with times of maximum volatility. We infer that these cycles influenced graptolite speciation and extinction through climate-driven changes to oceanic circulation and structure. Our results confirm the existence of Milankovitch grand cycles in the Early Paleozoic Era and show that known processes related to the mechanics of the Solar System were shaping marine macroevolutionary rates comparatively early in the history of complex life. We present an application of hidden Markov models to macroevolutionary time series and protocols for the evaluation of statistical significance in spectral analysis.

Diversity-dependent evolutionary rates in early Palaeozoic zooplankton.

The extent to which biological diversity affects rates of diversification is central to understanding macroevolutionary dynamics, yet no consensus has emerged on the importance of diversity-dependence of evolutionary rates. Here, we analyse the species-level fossil record of early Palaeozoic graptoloids, documented with high temporal resolution, to test directly whether rates of diversification were influenced by levels of standing diversity within this major clade of marine zooplankton. To circumvent the statistical regression-to-the-mean artefact, whereby higher- and lower-than-average values of diversity tend to be followed by negative and positive diversification rates, we construct a non-parametric, empirically scaled, diversity-independent null model by randomizing the observed diversification rates with respect to time. Comparing observed correlations between diversity and diversification rate to those expected from this diversity-independent model, we find evidence for negative diversity-dependence, accounting for up to 12% of the variance in diversification rate, with maximal correlation at a temporal lag of approximately 1 Myr. Diversity-dependence persists throughout the Ordovician and Silurian, despite a major increase in the strength and frequency of extinction and speciation pulses in the Silurian. By contrast to some previous work, we find that diversity-dependence affects rates of speciation and extinction nearly equally on average, although subtle differences emerge when we compare the Ordovician and Silurian.

Snowball Earth climate dynamics and Cryogenian geology-geobiology.

Geological evidence indicates that grounded ice sheets reached sea level at all latitudes during two long-lived Cryogenian (58 and ≥5 My) glaciations. Combined uranium-lead and rhenium-osmium dating suggests that the older (Sturtian) glacial onset and both terminations were globally synchronous. Geochemical data imply that CO2 was 102 PAL (present atmospheric level) at the younger termination, consistent with a global ice cover. Sturtian glaciation followed breakup of a tropical supercontinent, and its onset coincided with the equatorial emplacement of a large igneous province. Modeling shows that the small thermal inertia of a globally frozen surface reverses the annual mean tropical atmospheric circulation, producing an equatorial desert and net snow and frost accumulation elsewhere. Oceanic ice thickens, forming a sea glacier that flows gravitationally toward the equator, sustained by the hydrologic cycle and by basal freezing and melting. Tropical ice sheets flow faster as CO2 rises but lose mass and become sensitive to orbital changes. Equatorial dust accumulation engenders supraglacial oligotrophic meltwater ecosystems, favorable for cyanobacteria and certain eukaryotes. Meltwater flushing through cracks enables organic burial and submarine deposition of airborne volcanic ash. The subglacial ocean is turbulent and well mixed, in response to geothermal heating and heat loss through the ice cover, increasing with latitude. Terminal carbonate deposits, unique to Cryogenian glaciations, are products of intense weathering and ocean stratification. Whole-ocean warming and collapsing peripheral bulges allow marine coastal flooding to continue long after ice-sheet disappearance. The evolutionary legacy of Snowball Earth is perceptible in fossils and living organisms.

Greenhouse-icehouse transition in the Late Ordovician marks a step change in extinction regime in the marine plankton.

Two distinct regimes of extinction dynamic are present in the major marine zooplankton group, the graptolites, during the Ordovician and Silurian periods (486-418 Ma). In conditions of "background" extinction, which dominated in the Ordovician, taxonomic evolutionary rates were relatively low and the probability of extinction was highest among newly evolved species ("background extinction mode"). A sharp change in extinction regime in the Late Ordovician marked the onset of repeated severe spikes in the extinction rate curve; evolutionary turnover increased greatly in the Silurian, and the extinction mode changed to include extinction that was independent of species age ("high-extinction mode"). This change coincides with a change in global climate, from greenhouse to icehouse conditions. During the most extreme episode of extinction, the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction, old species were selectively removed ("mass extinction mode"). Our analysis indicates that selective regimes in the Paleozoic ocean plankton switched rapidly (generally in <0.5 My) from one mode to another in response to environmental change, even when restoration of the full ecosystem was much slower (several million years). The patterns observed are not a simple consequence of geographic range effects or of taxonomic changes from Ordovician to Silurian. Our results suggest that the dominant primary controls on extinction throughout the lifespan of this clade were abiotic (environmental), probably mediated by the microphytoplankton.

When and how did the terrestrial mid-Permian mass extinction occur? Evidence from the tetrapod record of the Karoo Basin, South Africa.

A mid-Permian (Guadalupian epoch) extinction event at approximately 260 Ma has been mooted for two decades. This is based primarily on invertebrate biostratigraphy of Guadalupian-Lopingian marine carbonate platforms in southern China, which are temporally constrained by correlation to the associated Emeishan Large Igneous Province (LIP). Despite attempts to identify a similar biodiversity crisis in the terrestrial realm, the low resolution of mid-Permian tetrapod biostratigraphy and a lack of robust geochronological constraints have until now hampered both the correlation and quantification of terrestrial extinctions. Here we present an extensive compilation of tetrapod-stratigraphic data analysed by the constrained optimization (CONOP) algorithm that reveals a significant extinction event among tetrapods within the lower Beaufort Group of the Karoo Basin, South Africa, in the latest Capitanian. Our fossil dataset reveals a 74-80% loss of generic richness between the upper Tapinocephalus Assemblage Zone (AZ) and the mid-Pristerognathus AZ that is temporally constrained by a U-Pb zircon date (CA-TIMS method) of 260.259 ± 0.081 Ma from a tuff near the top of the Tapinocephalus AZ. This strengthens the biochronology of the Permian Beaufort Group and supports the existence of a mid-Permian mass extinction event on land near the end of the Guadalupian. Our results permit a temporal association between the extinction of dinocephalian therapsids and the LIP volcanism at Emeishan, as well as the marine end-Guadalupian extinctions.

Calibrating the end-Permian mass extinction.

The end-Permian mass extinction was the most severe biodiversity crisis in Earth history. To better constrain the timing, and ultimately the causes of this event, we collected a suite of geochronologic, isotopic, and biostratigraphic data on several well-preserved sedimentary sections in South China. High-precision U-Pb dating reveals that the extinction peak occurred just before 252.28 ± 0.08 million years ago, after a decline of 2 per mil (‰) in δ(13)C over 90,000 years, and coincided with a δ(13)C excursion of -5‰ that is estimated to have lasted ≤20,000 years. The extinction interval was less than 200,000 years and synchronous in marine and terrestrial realms; associated charcoal-rich and soot-bearing layers indicate widespread wildfires on land. A massive release of thermogenic carbon dioxide and/or methane may have caused the catastrophic extinction.