Methodological issues of retrospective surveys for measuring mortality of highly clustered diseases: case study of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of empirical data on design effects (DEFF) for mortality rate for highly clustered data such as with Ebola virus disease (EVD), along with a lack of documentation of methodological limitations and operational utility of mortality estimated from cluster-sampled studies when the DEFF is high. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this paper are to report EVD mortality rate and DEFF estimates, and discuss the methodological limitations of cluster surveys when data are highly clustered such as during an EVD outbreak. METHODS: We analysed the outputs of two independent population-based surveys conducted at the end of the 2014-2016 EVD outbreak in Bo District, Sierra Leone, in urban and rural areas. In each area, 35 clusters of 14 households were selected with probability proportional to population size. We collected information on morbidity, mortality and changes in household composition during the recall period (May 2014 to April 2015). Rates were calculated for all-cause, all-age, under-5 and EVD-specific mortality, respectively, by areas and overall. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were estimated using Poisson regression, accounting for the surveys sample weights and the clustered design. RESULTS: Overall 980 households and 6,522 individuals participated in both surveys. A total of 64 deaths were reported, of which 20 were attributed to EVD. The crude and EVD-specific mortality rates were 0.35/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.23-0.52) and 0.12/10,000 person-days (95%CI: 0.05-0.32), respectively. The DEFF for EVD mortality was 5.53, and for non-EVD mortality, it was 1.53. DEFF for EVD-specific mortality was 6.18 in the rural area and 0.58 in the urban area. DEFF for non-EVD-specific mortality was 1.87 in the rural area and 0.44 in the urban area. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate a high degree of clustering; this contributed to imprecise mortality estimates, which have limited utility when assessing the impact of disease. We provide DEFF estimates that can inform future cluster surveys and discuss design improvements to mitigate the limitations of surveys for highly clustered data.

Main findings: For humanitarian organizations it is imperative to document the methodological limitations of cluster surveys and discuss the utility.Added knowledge: This paper adds new knowledge on cluster surveys for highly clustered data such us in Ebola virus disease.Global health impact of policy and action: We provided empirical estimates and discuss design improvements to inform future study.

Human Monkeypox in Sierra Leone after 44-Year Absence of Reported Cases.

We note the reemergence of human monkeypox in Sierra Leone following a 44-year absence of reported disease. The persons affected were an 11-month-old boy and, several years later, a 35-year-old man. The reappearance of monkeypox in this country suggests a need for renewed vigilance and awareness of the disease and its manifestations.

Offering general pediatric care during the hard times of the 2014 Ebola outbreak: looking back at how many came and how well they fared at a Médecins Sans Frontières referral hospital in rural Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: In Bo district, rural Sierra Leone, we assessed the burden of the 2014 Ebola outbreak on under-five consultations at a primary health center and the quality of care for under-15 children at a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) referral hospital. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study, comparing a period before (May-October 2013) and during the same period of the Ebola outbreak (2014). Health worker infections occurred at the outbreak peak (October 2014), resulting in hospital closure due to fear of occupational-risk of contracting Ebola. Standardized hospital exit outcomes and case fatality were used to assess quality of care until closure. RESULTS: A total of 13,658 children under-five, were seen at the primary health center during 2013 compared to 8761 in 2014; a consultation decline of 36%. Of 6497 children seen in the hospital emergency room, during the outbreak, patients coming from within hospital catchment area declined with 38% and there were significantly more self-referrals (80% vs. 61%, P < 0.001). During Ebola, 23 children were dead on arrival and the proportion of children in severe clinical status (requiring urgent attention) was higher (74% during Ebola vs. 65% before, P < 0.001). Of 5,223 children with available hospital outcomes, unfavorable outcomes (combination of deaths and abandoned) were less than 15% during both periods, which is within the maximum acceptable in-house threshold set by MSF. Case fatality for severe malaria and lower respiratory tract infections (n = 3752) were similar (≤15%). CONCLUSIONS: Valuable and good quality pediatric care was being provided in the pediatric hospital during the 2014 Ebola outbreak, but could not be sustained because of hospital closure. Health facility and health worker safety should be tackled as a universal requirement to try to avoid a déjà-vu.

Prognostic Indicators for Ebola Patient Survival.

To determine whether 2 readily available indicators predicted survival among patients with Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone, we evaluated information for 216 of the 227 patients in Bo District during a 4-month period. The indicators were time from symptom onset to healthcare facility admission and quantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR cycle threshold (Ct), a surrogate for viral load, in first Ebola virus-positive blood sample tested. Of these patients, 151 were alive when detected and had reported healthcare facility admission dates and Ct values available. Time from symptom onset to healthcare facility admission was not associated with survival, but viral load in the first Ebola virus-positive blood sample was inversely associated with survival: 52 (87%) of 60 patients with a Ct of >24 survived and 20 (22%) of 91 with a Ct of <24 survived. Ct values may be useful for clinicians making treatment decisions or managing patient or family expectations.

Delivery of an Ebola Virus-Positive Stillborn Infant in a Rural Community Health Center, Sierra Leone, 2015.

We report the case of an Ebola virus (EBOV) RNA-negative pregnant woman who delivered an EBOV RNA-positive stillborn infant at a community health center in rural Sierra Leone, 1 month after the mother's last possible exposure. The mother was later found to be immunoglobulins M and G positive indicating previous infection. The apparent absence of Ebola symptoms and not recognizing that the woman had previous contact with an Ebola patient led health workers performing the delivery to wear only minimal personal protection, potentially exposing them to a high risk of EBOV infection. This case emphasizes the importance of screening for epidemiological risk factors as well as classic and atypical symptoms of Ebola when caring for pregnant women, even once they have passed the typical time frame for exposure and incubation expected in nonpregnant adults. It also illustrates the need for health-care workers to use appropriate personal protection equipment when caring for pregnant women in an Ebola setting.

A plan for community event-based surveillance to reduce Ebola transmission - Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.

Ebola virus disease (Ebola) was first detected in Sierra Leone in May 2014 and was likely introduced into the eastern part of the country from Guinea. The disease spread westward, eventually affecting Freetown, Sierra Leone's densely populated capital. By December 2014, Sierra Leone had more Ebola cases than Guinea and Liberia, the other two West African countries that have experienced widespread transmission. As the epidemic intensified through the summer and fall, an increasing number of infected persons were not being detected by the county's surveillance system until they had died. Instead of being found early in the disease course and quickly isolated, these persons remained in their communities throughout their illness, likely spreading the disease.