Circulating HBV RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen trajectories in persons with HIV/HBV coinfection and HBsAg loss on tenofovir therapy.

BACKGROUND: We evaluated long-term trajectories of circulating hepatitis B virus (HBV)-RNA and hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) in persons with and without hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss during tenofovir therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included 29 persons with HIV (PWH) with HBsAg loss and 29 matched PWH without loss. We compared HBV-RNA and HBcrAg decline and assessed the cumulative proportions with undetectable HBV-RNA and HBcrAg levels during tenofovir therapy using Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: HBsAg loss occurred after a median of 4 years (IQR 1 - 8). All participants with HBsAg loss achieved suppressed HBV-DNA and undetectable HBV-RNA preceding undetectable qHBsAg levels, whereas 79% achieved negative HBcrAg. In comparison, 79% of the participants without HBsAg loss achieved undetectable HBV-RNA and 48% negative HBcrAg. After two years on tenofovir, an HBV RNA decline ≥1 log10 copies/ml had 100% sensitivity and 36.4% specificity for HBsAg loss, whereas an HBcrAg decline ≥1 log10 U/ml had 91.0% sensitivity and 64.5% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: HBV-RNA suppression preceded undetectable qHBsAg levels, and had high sensitivity but low specificity for HBsAg loss during tenofovir therapy in PWH. HBcrAg remained detectable in approximately 20% of persons with, and 50% of persons without HBsAg loss.

Long-term quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) trajectories in persons with and without HBsAg loss on tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Improving the understanding of the patterns of quantitative hepatitis B surface antigen (qHBsAg) trajectories associated with HBsAg loss is important in light of novel anti-hepatitis B virus agents being developed. We evaluated long-term qHBsAg trajectories in persons with HIV and HBV during tenofovir-containing antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: We included 29 participants with and 29 without HBsAg loss, defined as qHBsAg <0.05 IU/mL. We assessed qHBsAg decline during therapy in both groups and used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify different qHBsAg trajectory profiles in persons with HBsAg loss. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 11.9 years (IQR 8.4-14.1), and the median time to HBsAg loss was 48 months (IQR 12-96). Among participants with HBsAg loss, 79% had a qHBsAg decline ≥1 log10 IU/mL 2 years after starting tenofovir. The trajectories in qHBsAg levels during tenofovir therapy were heterogeneous, characterized by five distinct profiles. Among participants without HBsAg loss, only 7% had a qHBsAg decline ≥1 log10 IU/ml after 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Most persons with HIV who experienced HBsAg loss had an early decline in qHBsAg levels, with diverse trajectories during long-term tenofovir therapy. In persons without HBsAg loss, qHBsAg levels remained remarkably stable over time.

Sexual Behaviour and STI Incidence in Sexually Active MSM Living With HIV in Times of COVID-19.

Despite decreased numbers of sexual partners, the COVID-19 pandemic had limited impact on the prevalence of attending private sex parties, traveling for sex within Switzerland, and practicing chemsex in men with HIV who have sex with men. COVID-19 risk perception was low, and STI-diagnosis incidence rates remained stable over time.

Mental Health, ART Adherence, and Viral Suppression Among Adolescents and Adults Living with HIV in South Africa: A Cohort Study.

We followed adolescents and adults living with HIV aged older than 15 years who enrolled in a South African private-sector HIV programme to examine adherence and viral non-suppression (viral load > 400 copies/mL) of participants with (20,743, 38%) and without (33,635, 62%) mental health diagnoses. Mental health diagnoses were associated with unfavourable adherence patterns. The risk of viral non-suppression was higher among patients with organic mental disorders [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-1.96], substance use disorders (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19-1.97), serious mental disorders (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.09-1.54), and depression (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.28) when compared with patients without mental health diagnoses. The risk of viral non-suppression was also higher among males, adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). Our study highlights the need for psychosocial interventions to improve HIV treatment outcomes-particularly of adolescents and young adults-and supports strengthening mental health services in HIV treatment programmes.

RESUMEN: Monitoreamos adolescentes y adultos mayores de 15 años que viven con VIH y que están registrados en un programa privado Surafricano para el tratamiento del VIH. Nuestro propósito fue examinar adherencia a los medicamentos y supresión viral (carga viral < 400 copias/mL) en los participantes con (20,743, 38%) y sin (33,635, 62%) diagnósticos de salud mental. Los diagnósticos de salud mental estuvieron asociados con patrones de adherencia desfavorables. Comparados con pacientes sin diagnósticos de salud mental, el riesgo de no supresión viral fue más alto entre pacientes con desórdenes mentales orgánicos [riesgo relativo ajustado (aRR) 1.55, 95% intervalo de confidencia (CI) 1.22­1.96], desórdenes en el uso de sustancias (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.19­1.97), desórdenes mentales serios (aRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.09­1.54), y depresión (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10­1.28). El riesgo de no supresión viral también fue más alto en hombres que en mujeres, en adolescentes (15­19 años), y en adultos jóvenes. Nuestro estudio resalta la necesidad de intervenciones psicosociales para mejorar los resultados del tratamiento contra el VIH ­particularmente en adolescentes y adultos jóvenes­, y respalda el fortalecimiento de servicios de salud mental como parte de los programas para el tratamiento del VIH.

Triggers of Change in Sexual Behavior Among People With HIV: The Swiss U U Statement and COVID-19 Compared.

We assessed changes in sexual behavior among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) over 20 years. Condom use with stable partners steadily declined from over 90 to 29 since the Swiss U U statement, with similar trajectories between men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals. Occasional partnership remained higher among MSM compared to heterosexuals even during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing.

Extending outbreak investigation with machine learning and graph theory: Benefits of new tools with application to a nosocomial outbreak of a multidrug-resistant organism.

OBJECTIVE: From January 1, 2018, until July 31, 2020, our hospital network experienced an outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE). The goal of our study was to improve existing processes by applying machine-learning and graph-theoretical methods to a nosocomial outbreak investigation. METHODS: We assembled medical records generated during the first 2 years of the outbreak period (January 2018 through December 2019). We identified risk factors for VRE colonization using standard statistical methods, and we extended these with a decision-tree machine-learning approach. We then elicited possible transmission pathways by detecting commonalities between VRE cases using a graph theoretical network analysis approach. RESULTS: We compared 560 VRE patients to 86,684 controls. Logistic models revealed predictors of VRE colonization as age (aOR, 1.4 (per 10 years), with 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-1.5; P < .001), ICU admission during stay (aOR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2-1.9; P < .001), Charlson comorbidity score (aOR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.1-1.2; P < .001), the number of different prescribed antibiotics (aOR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.5-1.7; P < .001), and the number of rooms the patient stayed in during their hospitalization(s) (aOR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.1-1.2; P < .001). The decision-tree machine-learning method confirmed these findings. Graph network analysis established 3 main pathways by which the VRE cases were connected: healthcare personnel, medical devices, and patient rooms. CONCLUSIONS: We identified risk factors for being a VRE carrier, along with 3 important links with VRE (healthcare personnel, medical devices, patient rooms). Data science is likely to provide a better understanding of outbreaks, but interpretations require data maturity, and potential confounding factors must be considered.

Unsupervised machine learning predicts future sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infections among HIV-positive men who have sex with men.

Machine learning is increasingly introduced into medical fields, yet there is limited evidence for its benefit over more commonly used statistical methods in epidemiological studies. We introduce an unsupervised machine learning framework for longitudinal features and evaluate it using sexual behaviour data from the last 20 years from over 3'700 participants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We use hierarchical clustering to find subgroups of men who have sex with men in the SHCS with similar sexual behaviour up to May 2017, and apply regression to test whether these clusters enhance predictions of sexual behaviour or sexually transmitted diseases (STIs) after May 2017 beyond what can be predicted with conventional parameters. We find that behavioural clusters enhance model performance according to likelihood ratio test, Akaike information criterion and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for all outcomes studied, and according to Bayesian information criterion for five out of ten outcomes, with particularly good performance for predicting future sexual behaviour and recurrent STIs. We thus assess a methodology that can be used as an alternative means for creating exposure categories from longitudinal data in epidemiological models, and can contribute to the understanding of time-varying risk factors.

The impact of public health interventions on the future prevalence of ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae: a population based mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Future prevalence of colonization with extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL-) producing K. pneumoniae in humans and the potential of public health interventions against the spread of these resistant bacteria remain uncertain. METHODS: Based on antimicrobial consumption and susceptibility data recorded during > 13 years in a Swiss region, we developed a mathematical model to assess the comparative effect of different interventions on the prevalence of colonization. RESULTS: Simulated prevalence stabilized in the near future when rates of antimicrobial consumption and in-hospital transmission were assumed to remain stable (2025 prevalence: 6.8% (95CI%:5.4-8.8%) in hospitals, 3.5% (2.5-5.0%) in the community versus 6.1% (5.0-7.5%) and 3.2% (2.3-4.2%) in 2019, respectively). When overall antimicrobial consumption was set to decrease by 50%, 2025 prevalence declined by 75% in hospitals and by 64% in the community. A 50% decline in in-hospital transmission rate led to a reduction in 2025 prevalence of 31% in hospitals and no reduction in the community. The best model fit estimated that 49% (6-100%) of observed colonizations could be attributable to sources other than human-to-human transmission within the geographical setting. CONCLUSIONS: Projections suggests that overall antimicrobial consumption will be, by far, the most powerful driver of prevalence and that a large fraction of colonizations could be attributed to non-local transmissions.

An Approach to Quantifying the Interaction between Behavioral and Transmission Clusters.

We hypothesize that patterns of sexual behavior play a role in the conformation of transmission networks, i.e., the way you behave might influence whom you have sex with. If that was the case, behavioral grouping might in turn correlate with, and potentially predict transmission networking, e.g., proximity in a viral phylogeny. We rigorously present an intuitive approach to address this hypothesis by quantifying mapped interactions between groups defined by similarities in sexual behavior along a virus phylogeny while discussing power and sample size considerations. Data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on condom use and hepatitis C virus (HCV) sequences served as proof-of-concept. In this case, a strict inclusion criteria contrasting with low HCV prevalence hindered our possibilities to identify significant relationships. This manuscript serves as guide for studies aimed at characterizing interactions between behavioral patterns and transmission networks. Large transmission networks such as those of HIV or COVID-19 are prime candidates for applying this methodological approach.

Sustained Effect on Hepatitis C Elimination Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: A Systematic Re-Screening for Hepatitis C RNA Two Years Following a Nation-Wide Elimination Program.

BACKGROUND: The Swiss HCVree Trial (NCT02785666) was conducted in 2015-2017 with the goal of implementing a population-based systematic hepatitis C virus (HCV) micro-elimination program among men who have sex with men (MSM) with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). The trial led to a 91% and 77% decline of HCV prevalence and incidence, respectively. The long-term effect of this HCV micro-elimination program is yet to be explored. METHODS: All MSM enrolled in the SHCS were screened for HCV RNA using stored plasma samples obtained in 2019, termed "Swiss HCVree Post" screen. The incidence of HCV infection over time was assessed using additional information on HCV testing routinely collected in the SHCS. Characteristics of participants with replicating HCV infection were analyzed. RESULTS: The point-prevalence of "Swiss HCVree Post" (N = 4641) was 0.6%, reflecting a decline of 48% compared to the end of the Swiss HCVree Trial where the prevalence was 1.2%. Further, the incidence of HCV among MSM in the SHCS declined from 0.31/100 person-years (py) (95% confidence interval [CI] [.17, .55]) in 2017 to 0.19/100 py (95% CI [.09, .39]) in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic HCV RNA-based screening among MSM with HIV conducted 2 years after the Swiss HCVree Trial revealed a sustained effect and further decline of the prevalence and incidence of replicating HCV infection. This indicates that the Swiss HCVree Trial was successful in curbing the HCV epidemic among MSM with HIV in Switzerland. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02785666.

Assessing the drivers of syphilis among men who have sex with men in Switzerland reveals a key impact of screening frequency: A modelling study.

Over the last decade, syphilis diagnoses among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) have strongly increased in Europe. Understanding the drivers of the ongoing epidemic may aid to curb transmissions. In order to identify the drivers of syphilis transmission in MSM in Switzerland between 2006 and 2017 as well as the effect of potential interventions, we set up an epidemiological model stratified by syphilis stage, HIV-diagnosis, and behavioral factors to account for syphilis infectiousness and risk for transmission. In the main model, we used 'reported non-steady partners' (nsP) as the main proxy for sexual risk. We parameterized the model using data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, Swiss Voluntary Counselling and Testing center, cross-sectional surveys among the Swiss MSM population, and published syphilis notifications from the Federal Office of Public Health. The main model reproduced the increase in syphilis diagnoses from 168 cases in 2006 to 418 cases in 2017. It estimated that between 2006 and 2017, MSM with HIV diagnosis had 45.9 times the median syphilis incidence of MSM without HIV diagnosis. Defining risk as condomless anal intercourse with nsP decreased model accuracy (sum of squared weighted residuals, 378.8 vs. 148.3). Counterfactual scenarios suggested that increasing screening of MSM without HIV diagnosis and with nsP from once every two years to twice per year may reduce syphilis incidence (at most 12.8% reduction by 2017). Whereas, increasing screening among MSM with HIV diagnosis and with nsP from once per year to twice per year may substantially reduce syphilis incidence over time (at least 63.5% reduction by 2017). The model suggests that reporting nsP regardless of condom use is suitable for risk stratification when modelling syphilis transmission. More frequent screening of MSM with HIV diagnosis, particularly those with nsP may aid to curb syphilis transmission.

Identifying the drivers of multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae at a European level.

Beta-lactam- and in particular carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae represent a major public health threat. Despite strong variation of resistance across geographical settings, there is limited understanding of the underlying drivers. To assess these drivers, we developed a transmission model of cephalosporin- and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae. The model is parameterized using antibiotic consumption and demographic data from eleven European countries and fitted to the resistance rates for Klebsiella pneumoniae for these settings. The impact of potential drivers of resistance is then assessed in counterfactual analyses. Based on reported consumption data, the model could simultaneously fit the prevalence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing and carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL and CRK) across eleven European countries over eleven years. The fit could explain the large between-country variability of resistance in terms of consumption patterns and fitted differences in hospital transmission rates. Based on this fit, a counterfactual analysis found that reducing nosocomial transmission and antibiotic consumption in the hospital had the strongest impact on ESBL and CRK prevalence. Antibiotic consumption in the community also affected ESBL prevalence but its relative impact was weaker than inpatient consumption. Finally, we used the model to estimate a moderate fitness cost of CRK and ESBL at the population level. This work highlights the disproportionate role of antibiotic consumption in the hospital and of nosocomial transmission for resistance in gram-negative bacteria at a European level. This indicates that infection control and antibiotic stewardship measures should play a major role in limiting resistance even at the national or regional level.

A Treatment-as-Prevention Trial to Eliminate Hepatitis C Among Men Who Have Sex With Men Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) introduced global targets for the elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) by 2030. We conducted a nationwide HCV micro-elimination program among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) to test whether the WHO goals are achievable in this population. METHODS: During phase A (10/2015-06/2016), we performed a population-based and systematic screening for HCV-RNA among MSM from the SHCS. During phase B (06/2016-02/2017) we offered treatment with HCV direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents to MSM identified with a replicating HCV infection. During phase C (03/2017-11/2017), we offered rescreening to all MSM for HCV-RNA and initiated DAA treatment in MSM with replicating infections. RESULTS: We screened 3715/4640 (80%) MSM and identified 177 with replicating HCV infections (4.8%); 150 (85%) of whom started DAA treatment and 149 (99.3%) were cured. We rescreened 2930/3538 (83%) MSM with a prior negative HCV-RNA and identified 13 (0.4%) with a new HCV infection. At the end of the micro-elimination program, 176/190 MSM (93%) were cured, and the HCV incidence rate declined from .53 per 100 patient-years (95% CI, .35-.83) prior to the intervention to .12 (95% CI, .03-.49) by the end of 2019. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic, population-based HCV micro-elimination program among MSM living with HIV was feasible and resulted in a strong decline in HCV incidence and prevalence. Our study can serve as a model for other countries aiming to achieve the WHO HCV elimination targets. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02785666.

HCV Genetic Diversity Can Be Used to Infer Infection Recency and Time since Infection.

HIV-1 genetic diversity can be used to infer time since infection (TSI) and infection recency. We adapted this approach for HCV and identified genomic regions with informative diversity. We included 72 HCV/HIV-1 coinfected participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, for whom reliable estimates of infection date and viral sequences were available. Average pairwise diversity (APD) was calculated over each codon position for the entire open reading frame of HCV. Utilizing cross validation, we evaluated the correlation of APD with TSI, and its ability to infer TSI via a linear model. We additionally studied the ability of diversity to classify infections as recent (infected for <1 year) or chronic, using receiver-operator-characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) in 50 patients whose infection could be unambiguously classified as either recent or chronic. Measuring HCV diversity over third or all codon positions gave similar performances, and notable improvement over first or second codon positions. APD calculated over the entire genome enabled classification of infection recency (ROC-AUC = 0.76). Additionally, APD correlated with TSI (R2 = 0.33) and could predict TSI (mean absolute error = 1.67 years). Restricting the region over which APD was calculated to E2-NS2 further improved accuracy (ROC-AUC = 0.85, R2 = 0.54, mean absolute error = 1.38 years). Genetic diversity in HCV correlates with TSI and is a proxy for infection recency and TSI, even several years post-infection.

Can Australia Reach the World Health Organization Hepatitis C Elimination Goal by 2025 Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Gay and Bisexual Men?

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive gay and bisexual men (GBM) in Australia are well engaged in care. The World Health Organization's (WHO) hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination target of an 80% reduction in incidence by 2030 may be reachable ahead of time in this population. METHODS: We predicted the effect of treatment and behavioral changes on HCV incidence among HIV-positive GBM up to 2025 using a HCV transmission model parameterized with Australian data. We assessed the impact of changes in behavior that facilitate HCV transmission in the context of different rates of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) use. RESULTS: HCV incidence in our model increased from 0.7 per 100 person-years in 2000 to 2.5 per 100 person-years in 2016 and had the same trajectory as previously reported clinical data. If the proportion of eligible (HCV RNA positive) patients using DAAs stays at 65% per year between 2016 and 2025, with high-risk sexual behavior and injecting drug use remaining at current levels, HCV incidence would drop to 0.4 per 100 person-years (85% decline from 2016). In the same treatment scenario but with substantial increases in risk behavior, HCV incidence would drop to 0.6 per 100 person-years (76% decline). If the proportion of eligible patients using DAAs dropped from 65% per year in 2016 to 20% per year in 2025 and risk behavior did not change, HCV incidence would drop to 0.7 per 100 person-years (70% reduction). CONCLUSIONS: Reaching the WHO HCV elimination target by 2025 among HIV-positive GBM in Australia is achievable.

Self-reported Neurocognitive Impairment in People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV): Characterizing Clusters of Patients With Similar Changes in Self-reported Neurocognitive Impairment, 2013-2017, in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported neurocognitive impairment (SRNI) in people living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection is frequent. We use longitudinal information on SRNI in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) to identify and characterize groups of patients with persisting SRNI over time. METHODS: We included all SHCS patients who were assessed for SRNI during at least 5 visits spanning at least 2.5 years in 2013-2017. We first compared patients with SRNI to those without SRNI over the whole study period. Second, we used a hierarchical cluster algorithm to identify groups of patients with similar changes of SRNI over time. In both analyses, we studied clinical and demographic factors potentially influencing SRNI. RESULTS: In total, 79 683 questionnaires of 11 029 patients contained information about SRNI, and 8545 of 11 029 (77.5%) patients had longitudinal information. The overall percentage of patients with SRNI decreased from 19.6% in 2013 to 10.7% in 2017. Compared to patients in the cluster with low-level SRNI over time, patients in the cluster with high-level persisting SRNI more often had a prior opportunistic infection of the central nervous system (CNS) (odds ratio [OR], 3.7; P < .001), imperfect adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) (OR, 2.8; P < .001), and depression (OR, 1.9; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Although overall SRNI is decreasing in the SHCS, there is a group of patients with persisting SRNI over time. Past opportunistic infections of the CNS, imperfect adherence to ART, and depression were associated most with persisting SRNI. Patients with these characteristics should be preferentially tested for neurocognitive impairment.Although overall self-reported neurocognitive impairment (SRNI) is decreasing in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, there is a group of patients with persisting SRNI over time, characterized by more past opportunistic infections of the central nervous system, imperfect adherence to antiretroviral therapy, and depression.

Clusters of Sexual Behavior in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-positive Men Who Have Sex With Men Reveal Highly Dissimilar Time Trends.

BACKGROUND: Separately addressing specific groups of people who share patterns of behavioral change might increase the impact of behavioral interventions to prevent transmission of sexually transmitted infections. We propose a method based on machine learning to assist the identification of such groups among men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: By means of unsupervised learning, we inferred "behavioral clusters" based on the recognition of similarities and differences in longitudinal patterns of condomless anal intercourse with nonsteady partners (nsCAI) in the HIV Cohort Study over the last 18 years. We then used supervised learning to investigate whether sociodemographic variables could predict cluster membership. RESULTS: We identified 4 behavioral clusters. The largest behavioral cluster (cluster 1) contained 53% of the study population and displayed the most stable behavior. Cluster 3 (17% of the study population) displayed consistently increasing nsCAI. Sociodemographic variables were predictive for both of these clusters. The other 2 clusters displayed more drastic changes: nsCAI frequency in cluster 2 (20% of the study population) was initially similar to that in cluster 3 but accelerated in 2010. Cluster 4 (10% of the study population) had significantly lower estimates of nsCAI than all other clusters until 2017, when it increased drastically, reaching 85% by the end of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: We identified highly dissimilar behavioral patterns across behavioral clusters, including drastic, atypical changes. The patterns suggest that the overall increase in the frequency of nsCAI is largely attributable to 2 clusters, accounting for a third of the population.

Changing Trends in International Versus Domestic HCV Transmission in HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Perspective for the Direct-Acting Antiviral Scale-Up Era.

BACKGROUND: Scale-up of direct-acting antiviral therapy is expected to abate hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men (MSM). International transmission could influence this process. We classified HCV infections in HIV-positive MSM as either domestically or internationally acquired, and estimated how this classification changed over time. METHODS: HCV subtype 1a (the most frequent subtype among MSM) genomes from 99 persons enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and diagnosed with replicating HCV infections, were sequenced. Sixty-six of these sequences were from MSM. We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees and time trees containing a fragment of the NS5B region of these and 374 circulating strains. We inferred transmission clusters from these trees and used the country composition of such clusters to attribute infections to domestic or international transmission. RESULTS: Of HCV transmissions, 50% to 80% were classified as domestic depending on the classification criterion. Between 2000 and 2007, the fraction attributable to domestic transmission was 54% (range 0-75%). It increased to 85% (range 67%-100%) between 2008 and 2016. CONCLUSIONS: International and domestic transmission have played major roles in this epidemic. While international transmission persists, local transmission has established as the main source of infections.

Impact of Direct-Acting Antivirals on the Burden of HCV Infection Among Persons Who Inject Drugs and Men Who Have Sex With Men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

In the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, the number of people who inject drugs with replicating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection decreased substantially after the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Among men who have sex with men, the increase in DAA uptake and efficacy was counterbalanced by frequent incident HCV infections.

The Effect of Monitoring Viral Load and Tracing Patients Lost to Follow-up on the Course of the HIV Epidemic in Malawi: A Mathematical Model.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces HIV transmission, but treated patients may again become infectious. We used a mathematical model to determine whether ART as prevention is more effective if viral load (VL) is routinely monitored and patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) traced. METHODS: We simulated ART cohorts to parameterize a deterministic transmission model calibrated to Malawi. We investigated the following strategies for improving treatment and retention: monitoring VL every 12 or 24 months, tracing patients LTFU, or a generic strategy leading to uninterrupted treatment. We tested 3 scenarios, where ART scale-up continues at current (Universal ART), reduced (Failed scale-up), or accelerated speed (Test&Treat). RESULTS: In the Universal ART scenario, between 2017 and 2020 (2050), monitoring VL every 24 months prevented 0.5% (0.9%), monitoring every 12 months prevented 0.8% (1.4%), tracing prevented 0.3% (0.5%), and uninterrupted treatment prevented 5.5% (9.9%) of HIV infections. Failed scale-up resulted in 25% more infections than the Universal ART scenarios, whereas Test&Treat resulted in 7%-8% less. CONCLUSIONS: Test&Treat reduces transmission of HIV, despite individual cases of treatment failure and ART interruption. Whereas viral load monitoring and tracing have only a minor impact on transmission, interventions that aim to minimize treatment interruptions can further increase the preventive effect of ART.