Non-linearity in event runoff generation in a small agricultural catchment.

Understanding the role of soil moisture and other controls in runoff generation is important for predicting runoff across scales. This paper aims to identify the degree of non-linearity of the relationship between event peak runoff and potential controls for different runoff generation mechanisms in a small agricultural catchment. The study is set in the 66 ha Hydrological Open Air Laboratory, Austria, where discharge was measured at the catchment outlet and for 11 sub-catchments or hillslopes with different runoff generation mechanisms. Peak runoff of 73 events was related to three potential controls: event precipitation, soil moisture and groundwater levels. The results suggest that the hillslopes dominated by ephemeral overland flow exhibit the most non-linear runoff generation behaviour for its controls; runoff is only generated above a threshold of 95% of the maximum soil moisture. Runoff generation through tile drains and in wetlands is more linear. The largest winter and spring events at the catchment outlet are caused by runoff from hillslopes with shallow flow paths (ephemeral overland flow and tile drainage mechanisms), while the largest summer events are caused by other hillslopes, those with deeper flow paths or with saturation areas throughout the year. Therefore, the response of the entire catchment is a mix of the various mechanisms, and the groundwater contribution makes the response more linear. The implications for hydrological modelling are discussed.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information.

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

Increasing river floods: fiction or reality?

There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world, which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. This overview article examines whether floods have changed in the past and explores the driving processes of such changes in the atmosphere, the catchments and the river system based on examples from Europe. Methods are reviewed for assessing whether floods may increase in the future. Accounting for feedbacks within the human-water system is important when assessing flood changes over lead times of decades or centuries. It is argued that an integrated flood risk management approach is needed for dealing with future flood risk with a focus on reducing the vulnerability of the societal system. WIREs Water 2015, 2:329-344. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Pseudohermafroditismo masculino. A propósito de un caso / Male pseudohermaphroditism: a case report

OBJETIVO: Aportar un nuevo caso de pseudohermafroditismo masculino. MÉTODO: Se presenta un lactante de 45 días de nacido atendido en nuestro servicio por presentar genitales ambiguos. Se estudió su anatomía genital externa e interna así como su sexo genético y gonadal. CONCLUSIÓN: Se asigno sexo femenino y se realizó reducción labioescrotal y orquiectomía a los 6 meses de edad lográndose una buena adaptación a su rol genérico (AU)

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Modelo psicodinámico-sistémico de evaluación familiar / Psychodinamic-systemic model in family evaluation

En el presente trabajo se describe un instrumento de evaluación familiar denominado "modelo psicodinámico- sistémico de evaluación familiar". Se presenta el estudio de validación del instrumento (variación inter-observadores). Se estudiaron 20 familias, las que fueron vistas siempre por los mismos entrevistadores, especialistas en terapia familiar, los denominados "expertos", cuya calificación se constituyó como el patrón de referencia, ("estándar de oro"). Los observadores también fueron siempre los mismos y son psiquiatras sin formación en terapia familiar. Para propósitos de la entrevista, todos los profesionales participantes ignoraban el diagnóstico del paciente identificado. Durante la primera etapa de validación no existía una guía de calificación para los observadores y se obtuvo una baja concordancia entre ellos. Para la segunda etapa se diseñó una guía con 177 indicadores, encontrándose un gran incremento en dicha concordancia. Los estudios de validación como los del presente trabajo, permiten refinar el instrumento de medición para la aplicación confiable del mismo.