Mapping the potential distribution of the principal vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus Hyalomma marginatum in the Old World.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widely distributed tick-borne viral disease in humans and is caused by the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). The virus has a broader distribution, expanding from western China and South Asia to the Middle East, southeast Europe, and Africa. The historical known distribution of the CCHFV vector Hyalomma marginatum in Europe includes most of the Mediterranean and the Balkan countries, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Further expansion of its potential distribution may have occurred in and out of the Mediterranean region. This study updated the distributional map of the principal vector of CCHFV, H. marginatum, in the Old World using an ecological niche modeling approach based on occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and a set of covariates. The model predicted higher suitability of H. marginatum occurrences in diverse regions of Africa and Asia. Furthermore, the model estimated the environmental suitability of H. marginatum across Europe. On a continental scale, the model anticipated a widespread potential distribution encompassing the southern, western, central, and eastern parts of Europe, reaching as far north as the southern regions of Scandinavian countries. The distribution of H. marginatum also covered countries across Central Europe where the species is not autochthonous. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random expectations (p < 0.001). Based on the model results, climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of H. marginatum and their survival as adults in many regions of the Old World. Regular updates of the models are still required to continually assess the areas at risk using up-to-date occurrence and climatic data in present-day and future conditions.

Larvicidal evaluation of two novel cationic gemini surfactants against the potential vector of West Nile virus Culex pipiens Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae).

The development of insecticide resistance is a serious consequence of the widespread applications of synthetic insecticides. Recent studies have provided alternatives to currently available insecticides. Here, novel cationic gemini surfactants were synthesized to assess their insecticidal activities using laboratory and field strains larvae of Culex pipiens Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae). The efficacy of these surfactants was compared to that of clove oil and spinosad. The two surfactants G1 and G2 showed good insecticidal activities in laboratory strain with LC50 0.013 and 0.054 ppm, respectively, relative to spinosad with LC50 0.027 ppm, 48 h posttreatment. Although spinosad showed high efficiency against lab strain, it exhibited a high resistance ratio (RR) of 15.111 and 13.111 toward the field strain at 24 and 48 h posttreatment, respectively. The two gemini surfactants have a good safety profile and low RR (RR <5), which is close to clove oil; however, G1 and G2 presented high activities with 11,043.230 and 2658.648 folds, respectively, compared to clove oil. The treated Cx. pipiens larvae showed severe morphological malformations after treatment with gemini surfactants. The results of this study are promising in terms of developing novel, effective, affordable, and safe approaches for mosquito control strategies to reduce the risk of arbovirus transmission, which remains a global public health threat.

Assessment of expertise in morphological identification of mosquito species (Diptera, Culicidae) using photomicrographs.

Accurate identification of insect species is an indispensable and challenging requirement for every entomologist, particularly if the species is involved in disease outbreaks. The European MediLabSecure project designed an identification (ID) exercise available to any willing participant with the aim of assessing and improving knowledge in mosquito taxonomy. The exercise was based on high-definition photomicrographs of mosquitoes (26 adult females and 12 larvae) collected from the western Palaearctic. Sixty-five responses from Europe, North Africa and the Middle East were usable. The study demonstrated that the responders were better at identifying females (82% correct responses) than larvae (63%). When the responders reported that they were sure of the accuracy of their ID, the success rate of ID increased (92% for females and 88% for larvae). The top three tools used for ID were MosKeyTool (72% of responders), the ID key following Becker et al. [2010. Mosquitoes and their control, 2nd edn. Berlin: Springer] (38%), and the CD-ROM of Schaffner et al. [2001. Les moustiques d'Europe: logiciel d'identification et d'enseignement - The mosquitoes of Europe: an identification and training programme. Montpellier: IRD; EID] (32%), while other tools were used by less than 10% of responders. Responders reporting the identification of mosquitoes using the MosKeyTool were significantly better (80% correct responses) than non-MosKeyTool users (69%). Most responders (63%) used more than one ID tool. The feedback from responders in this study was positive, with the exercise being perceived as halfway between educational training and a fun quiz. It raised the importance of further expanding training in mosquito ID for better preparedness of mosquito surveillance and control programmes.

Title: Évaluation de l'expertise en identification morphologique des espèces de moustiques (Diptera, Culicidae) à l'aide de photomicrographies. Abstract: L'identification précise des espèces d'insectes est une exigence indispensable et difficile pour tout entomologiste, en particulier si l'espèce est impliquée dans des épidémies. Le projet européen MediLabSecure a conçu un exercice d'identification (ID) accessible à tout participant volontaire dans le but d'évaluer et d'améliorer les connaissances en taxonomie des moustiques. L'exercice était basé sur des photomicrographies haute définition de moustiques (26 femelles adultes et 12 larves) prélevées dans le Paléarctique occidental. Soixante-cinq réponses d'Europe, d'Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient ont été utilisables. L'étude a démontré que les répondants étaient meilleurs pour identifier les femelles (82 % de réponses correctes) que les larves (63 %). Lorsque les répondants ont déclaré être sûrs de l'exactitude de leur ID, le taux de réussite de l'identification était meilleur (92 % pour les femelles et 88 % pour les larves). Les trois principaux outils utilisés pour les ID étaient MosKeyTool (72 % des répondants), la clé d'identification du livre de Becker et al. (38%) et le CD-ROM de Schaffner et al. (32 %), tandis que d'autres outils étaient utilisés par moins de 10 % des répondants. Les répondants déclarant identifier des moustiques à l'aide de MosKeyTool étaient significativement meilleurs (80 % de réponses correctes) que les non-utilisateurs de MosKeyTool (69 %). La plupart des répondants (63 %) ont utilisé plus d'un outil d'identification. Les commentaires des répondants de cette étude ont été positifs, l'exercice étant perçu comme à mi-chemin entre une formation pédagogique et un quiz amusant. Il a souligné l'importance d'étendre la formation complémentaire à l'identification des moustiques pour une meilleure préparation des programmes de surveillance et de contrôle des moustiques.

Potential distributions of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi and its vector Dipetalogaster maxima highlight areas at risk of Chagas disease transmission in Baja California Sur, Mexico, under climate change.

Dipetalogaster maxima is a primary vector of Chagas disease in the Cape region of Baja California Sur, Mexico. The geographic distribution of D. maxima is limited to this small region of the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico. Our study aimed to construct the ecological niche models (ENMs) of this understudied vector species and the parasite responsible for Chagas disease (Trypanosoma cruzi). We modelled the ecological niches of both species under current and future climate change projections in 2050 using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5. We also assessed the human population at risk of exposure to D. maxima bites, the hypothesis of ecological niche equivalency and similarity between D. maxima and T. cruzi, and finally the abundance centroid hypothesis. The ENM predicted a higher overlap between both species in the Western and Southern coastal regions of the Baja California Peninsula. The climate change scenarios predicted a Northern shift in the ecological niche of both species. Our findings suggested that the highly tourist destination of Los Cabos is a high-risk zone for Chagas disease circulation. Overall, the study provides valuable data to vector surveillance and control programs.

A recent chikungunya outbreak associated with the occurrence of Aedes vectors (Diptera: Culicidae) in Kassala state, eastern Sudan in 2018.

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) are primary vectors of human arboviral diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Aedes aegypti is well distributed in Sudan, except in Northern and Khartoum states, while Ae. albopictus has not been previously reported. Recently, Eastern Sudan witnessed an unprecedented large outbreak of chikungunya fever between 31 May 2018 and 30 March 2019. The outbreak was composed of four waves; one of them was in Kassala state. Aedes survey in localities of Kassala state (rather than Kassala city) is carried out to assess the possible expansion of the disease in the state. The results showed the presence of immature stages of Aedes spp. in four localities from ten localities. From the four localities that recorded Aedes spp., two localities (Rural Kassala and West Kassala) were reported with chikungunya cases. From this investigation, Ae. albopictus was reported for the first time in Sudan. Also, this investigation showed the importance of conducting entomological surveys with epidemiological surveys during outbreaks of arboviral diseases.

Assessing the Potential Distributions of the Invasive Mosquito Vector Aedes albopictus and Its Natural Wolbachia Infections in México.

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is currently the most invasive vector species, with a widespread global distribution. Aedes albopictus is the potential vector of diverse arboviruses, including Zika and dengue. This study updated the ecological niche model of Ae. albopictus and inferred the potential distribution of natural Wolbachia infections in Ae. albopictus in México. The ecological niche models were constructed based on diverse model settings to better estimate the potential distributions and uncertainty indices of both Ae. albopictus and its natural Wolbachia infections in México. The distribution of Ae. albopictus covered the states across Northern México, the Gulf of México, the Pacific Coast of México, Central México, and the southeast of México. The ecological niche model of the natural Wolbachia infections in Ae. albopictus populations anticipated the occurrence of natural Wolbachia infections in the southeast of México, the Chiapas border with Guatemala, and Veracruz. These results can be used to prioritize vector surveillance and control programs in México for strategic and future decision-making; however, it is still necessary to establish active surveillance programs to assess model predictions based on the independent sampling of Ae. albopictus from different invasion zones in México. Finally, vector surveillance should also screen the natural Wolbachia infections in Ae. albopictus to validate Wolbachia predictions across México, particularly in the southeast of México.

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of Dengue fever in Kassala state, eastern Sudan.

Dengue is a rapidly growing public health threat in Kassala state, eastern Sudan. The objective of this study was to determine the seroprevalence, entomological transmission indices, and socioeconomic risk factors associated with dengue in this region. A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted in four dengue-endemic sites; Khatmia, West Gash, Thoriba, and Shokriya between March 2016 to March 2017. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) of immunoglobulin G (IgG) was used to determine the prevalence of dengue virus among the study participants. An entomological survey was conducted using pyrethrum spray catch and dipping for the collection of adults and aquatic stages of Aedes aegypti, respectively. Ribonucleic acid was extracted from the buffy coat of participants as well as from adult female Ae. aegypti to assess the possible circulation of dengue virus using Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). Multiple logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between potential risk factors and dengue seropositivity. A total of 409 persons were recruited to the study: 45.5% were in the 20-39 years' age category; 57.9% were living in houses with 6-10 persons; and 29.1% had at most secondary school education. In the majority (65.8%) of the households, the socioeconomic status was low (P<0.001). Long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets were used in 56.5% of the households. Over three-quarters (77.8%) claimed not to have experienced febrile illness in the last three months. Routine entomological survey across Kassala state identified a total of 3,304 larvae and 390 pupae Ae. aegypti, respectively. The overall house index was 32.8% and Breteau Index was 35.96% (146/406). The overall pupal demographic index was 13.31%, and the pupal children index was 97.26%. Antibodies against IgG were detected from 66 (42.04%) out of a total of 157 sera. Twenty-two positive sera (75.9%) were collected from Khatmia. A total of 329 adults Ae. aegypti were identified but only one (0.3%) was positive for DENV in Khatmia. Finally, four independent risk factors were identified to derive dengue circulation in Kassala: elder age (> 60 years) (OR 6.31, CI 1.09-36.36); type of bathroom (OR 3.52, CI 1.35-9.20); using water-based air conditioner (OR 6.90, CI 1.78-26.85) and previous infection of any household member with dengue (OR 28.73, CI 3.31-249.63). Our findings suggest that Kassala state is facing an increasing occurrence of dengue and emphasizes the need for developing appropriate interventions to address the identified risk factors, and place control programs into actions. Establishment of routine dengue epidemiological and entomological surveillance, and climate warning systems will contribute to early warning and timely detection and response to emerging outbreaks.

Buffalopox Virus: An Emerging Virus in Livestock and Humans.

Buffalopox virus (BPXV) is the cause of buffalopox, which was recognized by the FAO/WHO Joint Expert Committee on Zoonosis as an important zoonotic disease. Buffalopox was first described in India, later in other countries, and has become an emerging contagious viral zoonotic disease infecting milkers with high morbidity among affected domestic buffalo and cattle. BPXV is a member of the genus Orthopoxvirus and a close variant of the vaccinia virus (VACV). Recent genome data show that BPXV shares a most recent common ancestor of VACV Lister strain, which had been used for inoculating buffalo calves to produce a Smallpox vaccine. Over time, VACV evolved into BPXV by establishing itself in buffaloes to be increasingly pathogenic to this host and to make infections in cattle and humans. Together with the current pandemic of SARS-COV2/COVID 19, BPXV infections illustrate how vulnerable the human population is to the emergence and re-emergence of viral pathogens from unsuspected sources. In view that majority of the world population are not vaccinated against smallpox and are most vulnerable in the event of its re-emergence, reviewing and understanding the biology of vaccinia-like viruses are necessary for developing a new generation of safer smallpox vaccines in the smallpox-free world.

Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions of ecological niches.

Reconstructing ecological niche evolution can provide insight into the biogeography and diversification of evolving lineages. However, comparative phylogenetic methods may infer the history of ecological niche evolution inaccurately because (a) species' niches are often poorly characterized; and (b) phylogenetic comparative methods rely on niche summary statistics rather than full estimates of species' environmental tolerances. Here, we propose a new framework for coding ecological niches and reconstructing their evolution that explicitly acknowledges and incorporates the uncertainty introduced by incomplete niche characterization. Then, we modify existing ancestral state inference methods to leverage full estimates of environmental tolerances. We provide a worked empirical example of our method, investigating ecological niche evolution in the New World orioles (Aves: Passeriformes: Icterus spp.). Temperature and precipitation tolerances were generally broad and conserved among orioles, with niche reduction and specialization limited to a few terminal branches. Tools for performing these reconstructions are available in a new R package called nichevol.

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV): State of the Science.

Coronaviruses belong to a large family of viruses that can cause disease outbreaks ranging from the common cold to acute respiratory syndrome. Since 2003, three zoonotic members of this family evolved to cross species barriers infecting humans and resulting in relatively high case fatality rates (CFR). Compared to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV, CFR = 10%) and pandemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, CFR = 6%), the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has scored the highest CFR (approximately 35%). In this review, we systematically summarize the current state of scientific knowledge about MERS-CoV, including virology and origin, epidemiology, zoonotic mode of transmission, and potential therapeutic or prophylactic intervention modalities.

Mapping Brazilian spotted fever: Linking etiological agent, vectors, and hosts.

Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a highly lethal disease in southeastern Brazil. BSF is caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii and is transmitted by the bites of the tick of the genus Amblyomma. The spatial distribution of BSF risk areas is not well known in the country given the complexity of the transmission cycle. This study used the ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to anticipate the potential distribution of the etiological agent (Rickettsia rickettsii), vectors (Amblyomma sculptum and A. dubitatum), and hosts (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, Didelphis aurita, and D. marsupialis) of BSF in Brazil. We compiled occurrence records for all vectors, hosts, and BSF from our own field surveillance, online repositories, and literature. ENM identified BSF risk areas in southeastern and southern Brazil, and anticipated other dispersed suitable areas in the western, central, and northeastern coast regions of Brazil. Tick vectors and mammalian hosts were confined to these same areas; however, host species showed broader suitability in northern Brazil. All species ENMs performed significantly better than random expectations. We also tested the BSF prediction based on 253 additional independent cases identified in our surveillance; the model anticipated 251 out of 253 of these independent cases. Background similarity tests comparing the ENMs of R. rickettsii, tick vectors, and mammalian hosts were unable to reject null hypotheses of niche similarity. Finally, we observed close coincidence between independent BSF cases, and areas suitable for combinations of vectors and hosts, reflecting the ability of these model pairs to anticipate the distribution of BSF cases across Brazil.

Mapping the environmental suitability of etiological agent and tick vectors of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is one of the most important public health threats in many regions across Africa, Europe, and Asia. This study used ecological niche modeling analyses to map the environmental suitability of both CCHF virus (CCHFV), and its tick vectors (Amblyomma variegatum, Dermacentor marginatus, Hyalomma marginatum, Hyalomma rufipes, Hyalomma truncatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, and Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi) in the Old World countries. The CCHFV was anticipated to occur with high environmental suitability across southern and central Europe, northwestern Africa, central Asia, and western Mediterranean region. Ecological niche models of tick vectors anticipated diverse patterns based on the tick species in question; D. marginatus and H. marginatum showed high environmental suitability in southern and central Europe, and North Africa. The remaining vector species were anticipated to occur in Africa. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the niche similarities between CCHFV and diverse tick vectors and could not reject the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all vector-virus combinations (P > 0.05) except the combinations of CCHFV with A. variegatum, R. evertsi evertsi and R. appendiculatus (P < 0.05).

Identifying asymptomatic Leishmania infections in non-endemic villages in Gedaref state, Sudan.

OBJECTIVES: Infection with the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) may be either symptomatic or asymptomatic. In this study we aimed at investigating the prevalence of asymptomatic infections of leishmania in non-endemic villages in Gedaref state, Sudan. A descriptive cross-sectional study conducted during September and October 2014. Blood samples were collected for serological and molecular analysis. Sticky-traps, knockdown spray and CDC-miniature light traps were used for the collection of sandflies. RESULTS: Ninety-Five participants were included; 52 from Abukishma, 15 Algadamblia Tirfa, 25 Abualnaja and 3 were from Algadamblia Aljabal. Females constituted 56 (58.9%) of the study participants while males were 39 (41.1%). The most frequent age group was > 40-years (54.7%). Balanites/Acacia trees were the most planted tree inside the houses; 78 (82.1%). Also, 85 (89.5%) of the participants breed animals inside the house. DAT test revealed 5 positive participants (5.2%). 4/5 DAT positive were past VL infection. PCR detected 35 (36.8%) positive participants. A total of 31/35 was considered asymptomatic infections based on PCR. Households planted Balanites/Acacia trees or breed domestic animals were found in high percentages with L. donovani PCR positive participants (60.1%, 91.4%). No statistically significant was found for VL associated risk factors and VL asymptomatic participants.

Towards harmonisation of entomological surveillance in the Mediterranean area.

BACKGROUND: The Mediterranean Basin is historically a hotspot for trade, transport, and migration. As a result, countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea share common public health threats. Among them are vector-borne diseases, and in particular, mosquito-borne viral diseases are prime candidates as (re)emerging diseases and are likely to spread across the area. Improving preparedness and response capacities to these threats at the regional level is therefore a major issue. The implementation of entomological surveillance is, in particular, of utmost importance. Guidance in designing entomological surveillance systems is critical, and these systems may pursue different specific objectives depending on the disease. The purpose of the proposed review is to draw up guidelines for designing effective and sustainable entomological surveillance systems in order to improve preparedness and response. However, we make it clear that there is no universal surveillance system, so the thinking behind harmonisation is to define evidence-based standards in order to promote best practises, identify the most appropriate surveillance activities, and optimise the use of resources. Such guidance is aimed at policymakers and diverse stakeholders and is intended to be used as a framework for the implementation of entomological surveillance programmes. It will also be useful to collaborate and share information with health professionals involved in other areas of disease surveillance. Medical entomologists and vector control professionals will be able to refer to this report to advocate for tailored entomological surveillance strategies. The main threats targeted in this review are the vectors of dengue virus, chikungunya virus, Zika virus, West Nile virus, and Rift Valley fever virus. The vectors of all these arboviruses are mosquitoes. METHODS: Current knowledge on vector surveillance in the Mediterranean area is reviewed. The analysis was carried out by a collaboration of the medical entomology experts in the region, all of whom belong to the MediLabSecure network, which is currently funded by the European Union and represents an international effort encompassing 19 countries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea region. FINDINGS: Robust surveillance systems are required to address the globalisation of emerging arboviruses. The prevention and management of mosquito-borne viral diseases must be addressed in the prism of a One Health strategy that includes entomological surveillance as an integral part of the policy. Entomological surveillance systems should be designed according to the entomological and epidemiological context and must have well-defined objectives in order to effect a tailored and graduated response. We therefore rely on different scenarios according to different entomological and epidemiological contexts and set out detailed objectives of surveillance. The development of multidisciplinary networks involving both academics and public authorities will provide resources to address these health challenges by promoting good practises in surveillance (identification of surveillance aims, design of surveillance systems, data collection, dissemination of surveillance results, evaluation of surveillance activities) and through the sharing of effective knowledge and information. These networks will also contribute to capacity building and stronger collaborations between sectors at both the local and regional levels. Finally, concrete guidance is offered on the vector of the main arbovirus based on the current situation in the area.

Mapping the potential distributions of etiological agent, vectors, and reservoirs of Japanese Encephalitis in Asia and Australia.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a substantial cause of viral encephalitis, morbidity, and mortality in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific. World Health Organization recognized Japanese Encephalitis (JE) as a public health priority in demands to initiate active vaccination programs. Recently, the geographic distribution of JEV has apparently expanded into other areas in the Pacific islands and northern Australia; however, major gaps exist in knowledge in regard to its current distribution. Here, we mapped the potential distribution of mosquito vectors of JEV (Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Cx. pseudovishnui, Cx. vishnui, Cx. fuscocephala, Cx. gelidus), and reservoirs (Egretta garzetta, E. intermedia, Nycticorax nycticorax) based on ecological niche modeling approach. Ecological niche models predicted all species to occur across Central, South and South East Asia; however, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus, E. garzetta, E. intermedia, and N. nycticorax had broader potential distributions extending west to parts of the Arabian Peninsula. All predictions were robust and significantly better than random (P < 0.001). We also tested the JEV prediction based on 4335 additional independent human case records collected by the Chinese Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP); 4075 cases were successfully predicted by the model (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the ecological niche similarity among JEV, vector, and reservoir species and could not reject any of the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all combination pairs.

Mapping the global potential distributions of two arboviral vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus under changing climate.

BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors that transmit several arboviral diseases, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The world is presently experiencing a series of outbreaks of these diseases, so, we still require to better understand the current distributions and possible future shifts of their vectors for successful surveillance and control programs. Few studies assessed the influences of climate change on the spatial distributional patterns and abundance of these important vectors, particularly using the most recent climatic scenarios. Here, we updated the current potential distributions of both vectors and assessed their distributional changes under future climate conditions. METHODS: We used ecological niche modeling approach to estimate the potential distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus under present-day and future climate conditions. This approach fits ecological niche model from occurrence records of each species and environmental variables. For each species, future projections were based on climatic data from 9 general circulation models (GCMs) for each representative concentration pathway (RCP) in each time period, with a total of 72 combinations in four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. All ENMs were tested using the partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) and a set of 2,048 and 2,003 additional independent records for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Finally, we used background similarity test to assess the similarity between the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. RESULTS: The predicted potential distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus coincided with the current and historical known distributions of both species. Aedes aegypti showed a markedly broader distributional potential across tropical and subtropical regions than Ae. albopictus. Interestingly, Ae. albopictus was markedly broader in distributional potential across temperate Europe and the United States. All ecological niche models (ENMs) were statistically robust (P < 0.001). ENMs successfully anticipated 98% (1,999/2,048) and 99% (1,985/2,003) of additional independent records for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively (P < 0.001). ENMs based on future conditions showed similarity between the overall distributional patterns of future-day and present-day conditions; however, there was a northern range expansion in the continental USA to include parts of Southern Canada in case of Ae. albopictus in both 2050 and 2070. Future models also anticipated further expansion of Ae. albopictus to the East to include most of Europe in both time periods. Aedes aegypti was anticipated to expand to the South in East Australia in 2050 and 2070. The predictions showed differences in distributional potential of both species between diverse RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Finally, the background similarity test comparing the ENMs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was unable to reject the null hypothesis of niche similarity between both species (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: These updated maps provided details to better guide surveillance and control programs of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. They have also significant public health importance as a baseline for predicting the emergence of arboviral diseases transmitted by both vectors in new areas across the world.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

BACKGROUND: Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. METHOD: We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. RESULT: The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Predictable invasion dynamics in North American populations of the Eurasian collared dove Streptopelia decaocto.

Species invasions represent a significant dimension of global change yet the dynamics of invasions remain poorly understood and are considered rather unpredictable. We explored interannual dynamics of the invasion process in the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and tested whether the advance of the invasion front of the species in North America relates to centrality (versus peripherality) within its estimated fundamental ecological niche. We used ecological niche modelling approaches to estimate the dimensions of the fundamental ecological niche on the Old World distribution of the species, and then transferred that model to the New World as measures of centrality versus peripherality within the niche for the species. Although our hypothesis was that the invasion front would advance faster over more favourable (i.e. more central) conditions, the reverse was the case: the invasion expanded faster in areas presenting less favourable (i.e. more peripheral) conditions for the species as it advanced across North America. This result offers a first view of a predictive approach to the dynamics of species' invasions, and thereby has relevant implications for the management of invasive species, as such a predictive understanding would allow better anticipation of coming steps and advances in the progress of invasions, important to designing and guiding effective remediation and mitigation efforts.