A machine-learning algorithm using claims data to identify patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.

Homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) is an underdiagnosed and undertreated ultra-rare disease. We utilized claims data from the Komodo Healthcare Map database to develop a machine-learning model to identify potential HoFH patients. We tokenized patients enrolled in MyRARE (patient support program for those prescribed evinacumab-dgnb in the United States) and linked them with their Komodo claims. A true positive HoFH cohort (n = 331) was formed by including patients from MyRARE and patients with prescriptions for evinacumab-dgnb or lomitapide. The negative cohort (n = 1423) comprised patients with or at risk for cardiovascular disease. We divided the cohort into an 80% training and 20% testing set. Overall, 10,616 candidate features were investigated; 87 were selected due to clinical relevance and importance on prediction performance. Different machine-learning algorithms were explored, with fast interpretable greedy-tree sums selected as the final machine-learning tool. This selection was based on its satisfactory performance and its easily interpretable nature. The model identified four useful features and yielded precision (positive predicted value) of 0.98, recall (sensitivity) of 0.88, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.98, and accuracy of 0.97. The model performed well in identifying HoFH patients in the testing set, providing a useful tool to facilitate HoFH screening and diagnosis via healthcare claims data.

Serum cholesterol and the risk of developing hormonally driven cancers: A narrative review.

Although cholesterol has been hypothesized to promote cancer development through several potential pathways, its role in the risk of developing hormonally driven cancer is controversial. This literature review summarizes evidence from the highest quality studies to examine the consistency and strength of the relationship between serum cholesterol parameters and incidence of hormonally driven cancer. Articles were identified using EMBASE. Longitudinal observational studies published between January 2000 and December 2020 were considered for inclusion. The endpoint of interest was incident prostate, ovary, breast, endometrium, and uterine cancers. In total, 2732 reports were identified and screened; 41 studies were included in the review. No associations were found for ovarian cancer. Most endometrial cancer studies were null. The majority (76.9%) of studies reported no association between cholesterol and prostate cancer. Data on breast cancer were conflicting, associations limited, and effect sizes modest. Our results do not provide evidence for a clear association between cholesterol and different types of incident, hormonally driven reproductive cancers. Future studies should investigate the impact of lipid-lowering therapy.

Real-world effectiveness of casirivimab and imdevimab among patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the ambulatory setting: a retrospective cohort study using a large claims database.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the real-world effectiveness of casirivimab and imdevimab (CAS+IMD) versus no COVID-19 antibody treatment among patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the ambulatory setting, including patients diagnosed during the Delta-dominant period prior to Omicron emergence. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Komodo Health closed claims database. PARTICIPANTS: 13 273 128 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 (December 2020 through September 2021) were treated with CAS+IMD or untreated but treatment eligible under the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). Each treated patient was exact and propensity score matched without replacement to up to five untreated EUA-eligible patients. INTERVENTIONS: CAS+IMD. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Composite endpoint of 30-day all-cause mortality or COVID-19-related hospitalisation. Kaplan-Meier estimators were used to calculate outcome risks overall and across subgroups: age, COVID-19 vaccination status, immunocompromised status, and timing of diagnosis (December 2020 to June 2021, and July to September 2021). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: Among 75 159 CAS+IMD-treated and 1 670 338 EUA-eligible untreated patients, 73 759 treated patients were matched to 310 688 untreated patients; matched patients were ~50 years, ~60% were women and generally well balanced across risk factors. The 30-day risk of the composite outcome was 2.1% and 5.2% in the CAS+IMD-treated and CAS+IMD-untreated patients, respectively; equivalent to a 60% lower risk (aHR 0.40; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.42). The effect of CAS+IMD was consistent across subgroups, including those who received a COVID-19 vaccine (aHR 0.48, 95% CI, 0.41 to 0.56), and those diagnosed during the Delta-dominant period (aHR 0.40, 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.42). CONCLUSIONS: The real-world effectiveness of CAS+IMD is consistent with the efficacy for reducing all-cause mortality or COVID-19-related hospitalisation reported in clinical trials. Effectiveness is maintained across patient subgroups, including those prone to breakthrough infections, and was effective against susceptible variants including Delta. .

The prevalence of low muscle mass associated with obesity in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is defined as age-related low muscle mass and function, and can also describe the loss of muscle mass in certain medical conditions, such as sarcopenic obesity. Sarcopenic obesity describes loss of muscle and function in obese individuals; however, as sarcopenia is an age-related condition and obesity can occur in any age group, a more accurate term is obesity with low lean muscle mass (OLLMM). Given limited data on OLLMM (particularly in those aged < 65 years), the purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of OLLMM in adults aged ≥ 20 years in the USA. METHODS: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017-2018 and 1999-2006 were used. OLLMM was defined as an appendicular lean mass, adjusted for body mass index (BMI), cut-off point < 0.789 for males and < 0.512 for females, measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). DXA was only measured in individuals 20-59 years old in NHANES 2017-2018; we therefore utilized logistic regression models to predict OLLMM from NHANES 1999-2006 for those aged ≥ 60 years. The prevalence of OLLMM was estimated overall, and by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and clinical subgroup (high BMI, prediabetes, type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] with fibrosis, or post-bariatric surgery). Prevalence estimates were extrapolated to the USA population using NHANES sampling weights. RESULTS: We estimated that, during 2017-2018, 28.7 million or 15.9% of the USA population had OLLMM. The prevalence of OLLMM was greater in older individuals (8.1%, aged 20-59 years vs 28.3%, aged ≥ 60 years), highest (66.6%) in Mexican-American females aged ≥ 60 years, and lowest (2.6%) in non-Hispanic Black males aged 20-59 years. There was a higher prevalence of OLLMM in adults with prediabetes (19.7%), T2DM (34.5%), NAFLD with fibrosis (25.4%), or post-bariatric surgery (21.8%), compared with those without each condition. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the burden of OLLMM in the USA is substantial, affecting almost 30 million adults. The prevalence of OLLMM increased with age, and among those with prediabetes, T2DM, NAFLD with fibrosis, or post-bariatric surgery. A unified definition of OLLMM will aid diagnosis and treatment strategies.

Simulation of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) intensification in very high-risk patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

We aim to estimate the number and proportion of very-high risk patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) who would be able to achieve low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) <70 mg/dL with various lipid-lowering therapies (LLTs), including statins, ezetimibe, bempedoic acid, proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors, and evinacumab, using a Monte Carlo simulation model described previously. With current treatment options for LDL-C lowering, including statin, ezetimibe, bempedoic acid, and PCSK9 inhibitors, it was estimated that most very-high risk patients with ASCVD (99.1%) were able to achieve the LDL-C goal of <70 mg/dL. Nevertheless, approximately 88,715 patients in the USA were estimated to not be able to achieve the LDL-C goal after current available LLTs, thus remaining at elevated risk for recurrent cardiovascular events. Evinacumab may be useful to address such unmet needs effectively, as the majority of those not at goal after PCSK9 inhibitors could achieve the goal of <70 mg/dL after taking evinacumab.

Effectiveness of Subcutaneous Casirivimab and Imdevimab in Ambulatory Patients with COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Data on real-world effectiveness of subcutaneous (SC) casirivimab and imdevimab (CAS+IMD) for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are limited. The objective of this study was to assess the effectiveness of SC CAS+IMD versus no antibody treatment among patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study linked Komodo Health and CDR Maguire Health and Medical data. Patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in ambulatory settings (August 1-October 30, 2021) treated with SC CAS+IMD were exact- and propensity score-matched to fewer than five untreated treatment-eligible patients and followed for the composite endpoint of 30-day all-cause mortality or COVID-19-related hospitalization. Kaplan-Meier estimators were used to calculate outcome risk overall and across subgroups. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Of 13,522 patients treated with CAS+IMD, 12,972 were matched to 41,848 untreated patients. The 30-day composite outcome risk was 1.9% (95% CI 1.7-2.2) and 4.4% (95% CI 4.2-4.6) in the treated and untreated cohorts, respectively; treated patients had a 49% lower relative risk of the composite outcome (aHR 0.51; 95% CI 0.46-0.58) and a 67% relative risk of 30-day mortality (aHR 0.33, 95% CI 0.18-0.60). Effectiveness was consistent across vaccination status and various subgroups. DISCUSSION: Patients with COVID-19 benefitted from treatment with SC CAS+IMD versus untreated patients. The results were consistent across subgroups of patients, including older adults, immunocompromised patients, and patients vaccinated against COVID-19. Results were robust across numerous sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: SC CAS+IMD is effective in reducing 30-day COVID-19-related hospitalization or mortality in real-world outpatient settings during the Delta-dominant period.

Qualitative interviews in patients with lipodystrophy to assess the patient experience: evaluation of hunger and other symptoms.

BACKGROUND: New treatments are being evaluated for lipodystrophy; however, limited information is available on the patient experience. Results of a prior patient panel showed that hunger and temperature-related symptoms were an issue for participants. Therefore, evaluation of any changes in these symptoms is recommended for inclusion in new treatment options. The objective of this study was to further understand the patient experience and to evaluate newly developed items of hunger and temperature regulation. METHODS: Individual, in-depth telephone interviews were conducted via semi-structured discussion guide. Telephone interviews were conducted with 21 US patients with generalized lipodystrophy (GLD) or partial lipodystrophy (PLD). Eligibility requirements included self-reported PLD or GLD. Interviews included open-ended concept elicitation followed by a review of newly developed items assessing hunger, temperature sensations, and patient globals. Interviews were conducted in two rounds, with the newly developed items assessing hunger revised after each round of interviews based on participant feedback. RESULTS: Results indicated that hunger-related symptoms were considered a current issue for greater than half (N = 11) of participants, and all but one reported this as an issue at some point in their lives. Specifically, participants most often reported symptoms of increased appetite and not feeling full. The cognitive debriefing process indicated that the hunger-related symptoms, temperature, and global impression of change and severity items were correctly interpreted and easily completed by the participants. While not a focus of the interviews, the concept elicitation results demonstrated that pain was a frequently reported and bothersome symptom in this patient population. CONCLUSIONS: This qualitative research provided evidence to support the use of clinical outcomes assessments such as hunger and temperature-related items in clinical trials.

"I Can't Take off My Shirt or Do My Own Hair"-A Qualitative Investigation of the Symptoms and Impact Experience of Children and Adolescents with Fibrodysplasia Ossificans Progressiva (FOP).

INTRODUCTION: Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) is an ultra-rare, severely disabling, autosomal dominant, congenital disease characterized by progressive multi-focal heterotopic ossification (HO) of skeletal muscle, ligaments, tendons, and fascia. Past FOP studies have focused on the clinical aspects of the disease; therefore, there is a paucity of qualitative research on the patient experience. Our objective was to better understand the experience of children and adolescents living with FOP from their and their parents' perspectives. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative research study comprising in-depth, open-ended interviews with children and adolescents with FOP and their parents. Semi-structured interviews were conducted via phone call or Microsoft Teams with parent-child dyads (n = 11), adolescents (n = 6), and two clinicians. Children/adolescents and their parents were asked open-ended questions to elicit their daily experience of FOP. RESULTS: Concepts were organized into two major themes: symptoms of FOP and the impact of FOP on daily life. Symptoms of FOP reported by children/adolescents, parents, and clinicians were pain, swelling, redness, and stiffness. Functional impacts of flares and FOP in general included accommodations, mobility, activities of daily living, daily activities, and social activities. Impacts were attributed to the difficulties children and adolescents faced living with a disease that prohibited common activities. CONCLUSIONS: This research documented the experience of children and adolescents with FOP and its effects on their daily lives. It provides a conceptual model for further exploration of the symptoms and impacts important to children and adolescents with FOP and their parents. Children and adolescents and their parents offered novel insights into life with the disease that have not previously been discussed in published literature. Future studies should build upon our conceptual model to create a holistic view of the patient experience of FOP, to inform clinical practice, and the assessment of the patient experience in clinical trials for the disease.

The association of triglyceride levels with the incidence of initial and recurrent acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: This retrospective cohort study assessed the annualized incidence rate (IR) of acute pancreatitis (AP) in a nationally representative US adult population, as well as the variation in the risk of AP events across strata of triglyceride (TG) levels. METHODS: Data were obtained from IQVIA's US Ambulatory Electronic Medical Records (EMR) database linked with its LRxDx Open Claims database. Inclusion criteria included ≥1 serum TG value during the overlapping study period of the EMR and claims databases, ≥1 claim in the 12-month baseline period, and ≥ 1 claim in the 12 months post index. All TG measurements were assigned to the highest category reached: < 2.26, ≥2.26 to ≤5.65, > 5.65 to ≤9.94, > 9.94, and > 11.29 mmol/L (< 200, ≥200 to ≤500, > 500 to ≤880, > 880, and > 1000 mg/dL, respectively). The outcome of interest was AP, defined as a hospitalization event with AP as the principal diagnosis. RESULTS: In total, 7,119,195 patients met the inclusion/exclusion criteria, of whom 4158 (0.058%) had ≥1 AP events in the prior 12 months. Most patients (83%) had TGs < 2.26 mmol/L (< 200 mg/dL), while < 1% had TGs > 9.94 mmol/L (> 880 mg/dL). Overall, the IR of AP was low (0.08%; 95% confidence internal [CI], 0.08-0.08%), but increased with increasing TGs (0.08% in TGs < 2.26 mmol/L [< 200 mg/dL] to 1.21% in TGs > 11.29 mmol/L [> 1000 mg/dL]). In patients with a prior history of AP, the IR of AP increased dramatically; patients with ≥2 AP events at baseline had an IR of 29.98% (95% CI, 25.1-34.9%). CONCLUSION: The risk of AP increases with increasing TG strata; however, the risk increases dramatically among patients with a recent history of AP.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alirocumab in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes: The ODYSSEY OUTCOMES Trial.

BACKGROUND: Cholesterol reduction with proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 inhibitors reduces ischemic events; however, the cost-effectiveness in statin-treated patients with recent acute coronary syndrome remains uncertain. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether further cholesterol reduction with alirocumab would be cost-effective in patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model leveraging patient-level data from ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) was developed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon. Patients (n = 18,924) had a recent acute coronary syndrome and were on high-intensity or maximum-tolerated statin therapy, with a baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level ≥70 mg/dl, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥100 mg/dl, or apolipoprotein B ≥80 mg/l. Alirocumab 75 mg or placebo was administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks. Alirocumab was blindly titrated to 150 mg if LDL-C remained ≥50 mg/dl or switched to placebo if 2 consecutive LDL-C levels were <15 mg/dl. Incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) was determined with the addition of alirocumab versus placebo and, based on clinical efficacy findings from the trial, was stratified by baseline LDL-C levels ≥100 mg/dl and <100 mg/dl. RESULTS: Across the overall population recruited to the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES trial, using an annual treatment cost of US$5,850, the mean overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$92,200 per QALY (base case). The cost was US$41,800 per QALY in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, whereas in those with LDL-C <100 mg/dl the cost per QALY was US$299,400. Among patients with LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remained below US$100,000 per QALY across a wide variety of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome on optimal statin therapy, alirocumab improves cardiovascular outcomes at costs considered intermediate value, with good value in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dl but less economic value with LDL-C <100 mg/dl. (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab [ODYSSEY OUTCOMES]; NCT01663402).

Symptoms and Dietary Impact in Hypertriglyceridemia-Associated Pancreatitis: Development and Content Validity of Two New Measures.

BACKGROUND: Severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) is a rare condition, complicated by episodes of acute pancreatitis (AP), which can cause pain and/or life-threatening multi-organ dysfunction. Currently, there are no disease-specific patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures evaluating symptoms or dietary impact for this condition. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to explore patient-reported symptoms and impacts of sHTG and AP and develop new measures to capture the symptoms and dietary impacts of this condition using patient language. METHODS: In-depth, semi-structured concept elicitation interviews were conducted with 12 US-based participants to explore their experience and identify key symptoms and impact on dietary behavior, both during and between episodes of AP. Participants had a range of AP severity with a previous triglyceride reading > 1000 mg/dL, and at least one attack of AP within the last 12 months. Transcripts were coded using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Qualitative data analysis revealed the substantial burden of AP associated with sHTG. Participants reported experiencing symptoms, especially abdominal pain, both during and between attacks of AP, and discussed considerable diet changes to prevent or minimize future attacks. A conceptual model was refined, based on patient input, and reviewed by clinical experts to determine key concepts for inclusion within two PRO measures, one evaluating symptoms and another evaluating impact on dietary behavior. Items were drafted using patient-derived language. A 19-item symptoms measure [Hypertriglyceridemia and Acute Pancreatitis Symptom Scale (HAP-SS)] and a 6-item dietary impact measure (Hypertriglyceridemia and Acute Pancreatitis Dietary Behavior (HAP-DB) measure) were developed, both with a 24-h recall period. CONCLUSIONS: The qualitative analysis confirmed the substantial burden of AP associated with sHTG. This research resulted in development of two disease-specific PRO measures for use during and between attacks of AP. These measures are being utilized in a clinical trial, which will confirm content, structure, and psychometric properties.

Risk of Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Metabolic Dyslipidemia Without Prevalent Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between achieved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and risk of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events among patients with diabetes and metabolic dyslipidemia has not been well described. METHODS: We conducted an observational cohort study of statin-treated adults (ages 21-90 years) with type 2 diabetes without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (as of January 1, 2006) who had metabolic dyslipidemia (elevated triglycerides ≥150 mg/dL and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, <50 mg/dL [women] and <40 mg/dL [men]). All subjects were members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated health care delivery system. Adjusted multivariable Cox models were specified to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events by achieved LDL-C levels (<50, 50-<70, 70-<100, and ≥100 mg/dL). Incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events were defined as a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or coronary heart disease death through December 31, 2013. RESULTS: A total of 19,095 individuals met the selection criteria. Mean age was 63.4 years, 53.5% were women, and the mean follow-up was 5.9 years. Unadjusted rates of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events were not significantly different across specified LDL-C categories. In models adjusted for demographics and clinical characteristics, the risk was significantly lower with decreasing achieved LDL-C levels (P <0.0001 for trend). Relative to achieved LDL-C ≥100 mg/dL, LDL-C <50 mg/dL had an hazard ratio of 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52-0.82). CONCLUSION: In a large, contemporary cohort of statin-treated patients with type 2 diabetes and metabolic dyslipidemia without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, lower achieved LDL-C levels were associated with a monotonically lower risk of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. The benefits of achieving very-low LDL-C (<50 mg/dL) in this population requires further evaluation in prospective interventional studies.

Simulation of impact on cardiovascular events due to lipid-lowering therapy intensification in a population with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), guidelines recommend statins as first-line lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) with addition of nonstatin agents in those with persistently elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. METHODS: To estimate the cardiovascular (CV) risk reduction implications of treatment intensification, we used a previously reported simulation model with enhancements. An ASCVD cohort was developed from a US claims database. A Cox model was used to estimate baseline risk of CV events: myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, unstable angina hospitalization, elective coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular death. Patients were sampled with replacement (bootstrapping) and entered the simulation model, which applied stepwise LLT intensification logic, with a goal of achieving low-density lipoprotein cholesterol less than 70 mg/dL at each step. CV risk reduction assumptions were based on published data. Two treatment intensification scenarios were investigated: ideal and real-world (which accounted for statin intolerance, nonadherence, and payer restrictions). RESULTS: In a cohort of 1,000 patients with ASCVD, approximately 813 (809-818) would require treatment intensification with LLT under an ideal treatment intensification scenario. Before treatment intensification, 183 (179-187) events would be expected to occur over 5 years. With treatment intensification, 40 (34-45) of these events could be avoided. In a real-world scenario, about 818 (813-823) patients require treatment intensification with LLT, resulting in 29 (24-34) events avoided over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Intensification of LLT in an ASCVD population translates into a substantial number of CV events avoided. This simulation-based model could assist in assessing the potential benefits of various types of population-level LLT interventions.

The patient journey with proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors in community practice.

BACKGROUND: Trials have demonstrated that proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors are effective as an adjunct to statin therapy, but access and cost issues have limited their use in community practice. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to better understand patients' experiences when trying to obtain, fill, and use PCSK9 inhibitor therapy in community practice. METHODS: We conducted a patient survey to evaluate patient experiences with PCSK9 inhibitors including medication initiation, indication for treatment, insurance approval status, medication persistence, and reason for discontinuation. The survey was emailed to 4740 adults who used a patient access support program. RESULTS: Overall, 1327 of 4740 adults completed the survey (28.0% response rate). Of those, 75.0% were aged >60 years, 52.8% were male, and 92.4% were White. At the time of PCSK9 inhibitor prescription, 70.2% were not on a statin (with 84.4% of those not on a statin reporting statin intolerance). Overall, 74.6% of patients found the drug approval process to be "somewhat" or "very" burdensome. Among n = 1216 patients who initiated treatment, 33.7% discontinued by the time of the survey, with 50.0% taking the drug for 1 to 6 months. Patient out-of-pocket costs were the leading reported reason for discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: Most PCSK9 inhibitor users in community practice were not on a statin, presumably because of statin intolerance. The drug approval process and costs continue to be strong reasons for lower initiation of PCSK9 agents, as well as higher discontinuation rates.

Evaluation of Mortality Data From the Social Security Administration Death Master File for Clinical Research.

Importance: Despite its documented undercapture of mortality data, the US Social Security Administration Death Master File (SSDMF) is still often used to provide mortality end points in retrospective clinical studies. Changes in death data reporting to SSDMF in 2011 may have further affected the reliability of mortality end points, with varying consequences over time and by state. Objective: To evaluate the reliability of mortality rates in the SSDMF in a cohort of patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational analysis used the IBM MarketScan Medicare and commercial insurance databases linked to mortality information from the SSDMF. Adults with ASCVD who had a clinical encounter between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2013, at least 2 years of follow-up, and from states with 1000 or more eligible adults with ASCVD were included in the study. Data analysis was conducted between April 18 and May 21, 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Kaplan-Meier analyses were conducted to estimate state-level mortality rates for adults with ASCVD, stratified by database (commercial or Medicare). Constant hazards of mortality by state were tested, and individual state Kaplan-Meier curves for temporal changes were evaluated. For states in which the hazard of death was constant over time, mortality rates for adults with ASCVD were compared with state-level, age group-specific overall mortality rates in 2012, as reported by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Results: This study of mortality data of 667 516 adults with ASCVD included 274 005 adults in the commercial insurance database cohort (171 959 male [62.8%] and median [interquartile range (IQR)] age of 58 [52-62] years) and 393 511 in the Medicare database cohort (245 366 male [62.4%] and median [IQR] age of 76 [70-83] years). Of the 41 states included, 11 states (26.8%) in the commercial cohort and 18 states (43.9%) in the Medicare cohort had a change in the hazard of death after 2012. Among states with constant hazard, state-level mortality rates using the SSDMF ranged widely, from 0.06 to 1.30 per 100 person-years (commercial cohort) and from 0.83 to 6.07 per 100 person-years (Medicare cohort). Variability between states in mortality estimates for adults with ASCVD using SSDMF data greatly exceeded variability in overall mortality from the NCHS. No correlation was found between NCHS mortality estimates and those from the SSDMF (ρ = 0.29 [P = .06] for age 55-64 years; ρ = 0.18 [P = .27] for age 65-74 years). Conclusions and Relevance: The SSDMF appeared to markedly underestimate mortality rates, with variable undercapture among states and over time; this finding suggests that SSDMF data are not reliable and should not be used alone by researchers to estimate mortality rates.

Simulation of the Impact of Statin Intolerance on the Need for Ezetimibe and/or Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 Inhibitor for Meeting Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Goals in a Population With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

In a population with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, previous research indicated that approximately 86% can achieve low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) of <70 mg/dL with oral lipid-lowering therapies (LLT) only, whereas 14% would require a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor. We aim to estimate these values accounting for varying levels of statin intolerance. A simulation model described previously was used to estimate the utilization of LLT needed to achieve LDL-C <70 mg/dL via an intensification algorithm which maximized statins before adding ezetimibe or a PCSK9 inhibitor. The current analysis took into account varying background rates of statin intolerance. We defined statin intolerance as either partial (inability to tolerate high-intensity statin) or full (inability to tolerate any statin). With treatment intensification and 10% of patients having partial statin intolerance, the use of ezetimibe (± statin ± PCSK9 inhibitor) increased from 32.7% to 34.9%, and the need for a PCSK9 inhibitor (+ ezetimibe ± statin) increased from 14.0% to 15.5%. If, instead, 10% were fully statin intolerant, the use of ezetimibe (± statin ± PCSK9 inhibitor) increased from 32.7% to 38.5%, and the use of a PCSK9 inhibitor (+ ezetimibe ± statin) increased from 14.0% to 19.7%. In conclusion, in our simulation-based study, partial statin intolerance increased the need for nonstatins only modestly (by an absolute 2.2%), whereas having 10% of patients with full statin intolerance increased the need for PCSK9 inhibitors from 14% overall to approximately 20%.

Quantifying Importance of Major Risk Factors for Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: To optimize preventive strategies for coronary heart disease (CHD), it is essential to understand and appropriately quantify the contribution of its key risk factors. Our objective was to compare the associations of key modifiable CHD risk factors-specifically lipids, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes mellitus, and smoking-with incident CHD events based on their prognostic performance, attributable risk fractions, and treatment benefits, overall and by age. METHODS: Pooled participant-level data from 4 observational cohort studies sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute were used to create a cohort of 22 626 individuals aged 45 to 84 years who were initially free of cardiovascular disease. Individuals were followed for 10 years from baseline evaluation for incident CHD. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate metrics of prognostic model performance (likelihood ratio, C index, net reclassification, discrimination slope), hazard ratios, and population attributable fractions for SBP, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), diabetes mellitus, and smoking. Expected absolute risk reductions for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment were assessed. RESULTS: Age, sex, and race capture 63% to 80% of the prognostic performance of cardiovascular risk models. In contrast, adding either SBP, non-HDL-C, diabetes mellitus, or smoking to a model with other risk factors increases the C index by only 0.004 to 0.013. However, primordial prevention could have a substantial effect as demonstrated by population attributable fractions of 28% for SBP≥130 mm Hg and 17% for non-HDL-C≥130 mg/dL. Similarly, lowering the SBP of all individuals to <130 mm Hg or lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 30% would be expected to lower a baseline 10-year CHD risk of 10.7% to 7.0 and 8.0, respectively (absolute risk reductions: 3.7% and 2.7%, respectively). Prognostic performance decreases with age (C indices for age groups 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84 are 0.75, 0.72, 0.66, and 0.62, respectively), whereas absolute risk reductions increase (SBP: 1.1%, 2.3%, 5.4%, 10.3%, respectively; non-HDL-C: 1.1%, 2.0%, 3.7%, 5.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although individual modifiable CHD risk factors contribute only modestly to prognostic performance, our models indicate that eliminating or controlling these individual factors would lead to substantial reductions in total population CHD events. Metrics used to judge importance of risk factors should be tailored to the research objectives.

Simulation of Lipid-Lowering Therapy Intensification in a Population With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

Importance: In patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), guidelines recommend optimizing statin treatment, and consensus pathways suggest use of ezetimibe and proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors in patients with persistently elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels despite use of statins. Recent trials have provided evidence of benefit in reduction of cardiovascular events with these agents. Objective: To estimate the percentage of patients with ASCVD who would require a PCSK9 inhibitor when oral lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) is intensified first. Design, Setting, and Participants: This simulation model study used a large administrative database of US medical and pharmacy claims to identify a cohort of 105 269 patients with ASCVD enrolled from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2013, who met the inclusion criteria (database cohort). Patients were sampled with replacement (bootstrapping) to match the US epidemiologic distribution and entered into a Monte Carlo simulation (simulation cohort) that applied stepwise treatment intensification algorithms in those with LDL-C levels of at least 70 mg/dL. All patients not initially receiving a statin were given atorvastatin, 20 mg, and the following LLT intensification steps were applied: uptitration to atorvastatin, 80 mg; add-on ezetimibe therapy; add-on alirocumab therapy, 75 mg (a PCSK9 inhibitor); and uptitration to alirocumab, 150 mg. Sensitivity analyses included evolocumab as a PCSK9 inhibitor. Efficacy was estimated from published studies and incorporated patient-level variation. Data were analyzed from December 2015 to May 2017. Exposures: Treatment intensification strategies with LLT. Main Outcomes and Measures: Use of LLT among the population with ASCVD and distributions of LDL-C levels under various treatment intensification scenarios. Results: Inclusion criteria were met by 105 269 individuals in the database cohort (57.2% male and 42.8% female; mean [SD] age, 65.1 [12.1] years). In the simulation cohort (1 million patients; 54.8% male and 45.2% female; mean [SD] age, 66.4 [12.2] years), before treatment intensification, 51.5% used statin monotherapy and 1.7% used statins plus ezetimibe. Only 25.2% achieved an LDL-C level of less than 70 mg/dL. After treatment intensification, 99.3% could achieve an LDL-C level of less than 70 mg/dL, including 67.3% with statin monotherapy, 18.7% with statins plus ezetimibe, and 14% with add-on PCSK9 inhibitor. Conclusions and Relevance: Large gaps exist between recommendations and current practice regarding LLT in the population with ASCVD. In our model that assumes no LLT intolerance and full adherence, intensification of oral LLT could achieve an LDL-C level of less than 70 mg/dL in most patients, with only a modest percentage requiring a PCSK9 inhibitor.

The Statin-Associated Muscle Symptom Clinical Index (SAMS-CI): Revision for Clinical Use, Content Validation, and Inter-rater Reliability.

PURPOSE: The Statin-Associated Muscle Symptom Clinical Index (SAMS-CI) is a method for assessing the likelihood that a patient's muscle symptoms (e.g., myalgia or myopathy) were caused or worsened by statin use. The objectives of this study were to prepare the SAMS-CI for clinical use, estimate its inter-rater reliability, and collect feedback from physicians on its practical application. METHODS: For content validity, we conducted structured in-depth interviews with its original authors as well as with a panel of independent physicians. Estimation of inter-rater reliability involved an analysis of 30 written clinical cases which were scored by a sample of physicians. A separate group of physicians provided feedback on the clinical use of the SAMS-CI and its potential utility in practice. RESULTS: Qualitative interviews with providers supported the content validity of the SAMS-CI. Feedback on the clinical use of the SAMS-CI included several perceived benefits (such as brevity, clear wording, and simple scoring process) and some possible concerns (workflow issues and applicability in primary care). The inter-rater reliability of the SAMS-CI was estimated to be 0.77 (confidence interval 0.66-0.85), indicating high concordance between raters. With additional provider feedback, a revised SAMS-CI instrument was created suitable for further testing, both in the clinical setting and in prospective validation studies. CONCLUSIONS: With standardized questions, vetted language, easily interpreted scores, and demonstrated reliability, the SAMS aims to estimate the likelihood that a patient's muscle symptoms were attributable to statins. The SAMS-CI may support better detection of statin-associated muscle symptoms in clinical practice, optimize treatment for patients experiencing muscle symptoms, and provide a useful tool for further clinical research.