Cancer mortality predictions for 2023 in Latin America with focus on stomach cancer.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated cancer mortality statistics for the current year in seven major Latin American countries. METHODS: We retrieved official death certification data and population figures from the WHO and the United Nations databases for the 1970-2020 calendar period. We considered mortality from all neoplasms combined and for 10 major cancer sites. We estimated the number of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for the year 2023. RESULTS: Age-standardized mortality rates for all cancers combined are predicted to decline in all countries, in both sexes, apart from Venezuelan women. The lowest predicted total cancer mortality rates are in Mexico, 69.8/100 000 men and 62.5/100 000 women. The highest rates are in Cuba with 133.4/100 000 men and 90.2/100 000 women. Stomach cancer is predicted to decline steadily in all countries considered, but remains the first-ranking site for men in Chile (14.3/100 000) and Colombia (11/100 000). Colorectal cancer rates also tended to decline but remain comparatively high in Argentina (14/100 000 men). Breast cancer rates were high in Argentinian women (16.5/100 000) though they tended to decline in all countries. Lung cancer mortality rates are also predicted to decline, however, rates remain exceedingly high in Cuba (30.5/100 000 men and 17.2/100 000 women) as opposed to Mexico (5.6/100 000 men and 3.2/10 000 women). Declines are also projected for cancer of the uterus, but rates remain high, particularly in Argentina and Cuba (10/100 000 women), and Venezuela (13/100 000 women) due to inadequate screening and cervical cancer control. CONCLUSION: Certified cancer mortality remains generally lower in Latin America (apart from Cuba), as compared to North America and Europe; this may be partly due to death certification validity.

Global trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer incidence and mortality.

To provide an up-to-date overview of recent trends in mortality from oral and pharyngeal cancer, we analyzed death certification data for 61 countries worldwide provided by the World Health Organization in 2010-2015, and, for selected most populous countries, over the period 1970-2016. For 12 largest countries, we analyzed incidence derived from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents in 1960-2012 for all oral and pharyngeal cancers and by subsites. In 2015, male age-standardized (world population) death rates per 100,000 were 5.03 in the European Union (EU), 8.33 in the Russian Federation, 2.53 in the United States (USA), and 3.04 in Japan; corresponding rates in women were 1.23, 1.23, 0.82, and 0.76. Male mortality decreased over the last decades in several European countries, with earlier and sharper declines in southern Europe; conversely, mortality was still increasing in a few eastern European countries and the United Kingdom. Mortality in men also decreased in Argentina, Australia, and Hong Kong, while it leveled off over more recent calendar years in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, as well as in Australia and the USA. Female mortality slightly rose in various European countries. Overall incidence trends in the largest countries were broadly consistent with mortality ones, but oropharyngeal cancer incidence rose in many countries. Changes in tobacco and alcohol exposure in men over the last decades likely explain the favorable trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality and incidence observed in selected countries worldwide, while increased human papillomavirus infection is likely responsible for the rise in oropharyngeal cancer incidence.