An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish.

Most key life-events of organisms are synchronized by complex interactions of several environmental cues to ensure optimal survival and growth of individuals and their offspring. However, global change is known to affect multiple components of ecosystems and cues at the same time. Therefore, detecting joint trends in covariate time series is a crucial challenge in global change ecology that has rarely been addressed so far. In this context, we designed an innovative combination of kernel density estimations and Mann-Kendall trend tests to detect joint temporal trends in a pair of environmental variables. This methodological framework was tested on >30 years (1976-2019) of water temperature and discharge data for 6 large French rivers (the Garonne, Dordogne, Rhône, Rhine, Loire and Vienne rivers). The implications of such trends in both temperature and discharge for diadromous species key life-cycle processes were then explored by checking if significant bivariate environmental changes occurred during seasons of upstream and downstream migration, and reproductive activities. Results were contrasted between rivers and seasons: many rivers displayed an increase in the number of days with high water temperature and low river discharge, but local discharge regulation measures could have mitigated the trend in discharge. Our findings showed that species migrating or spawning in spring were likely to be strongly impacted by the new environmental conditions in the Garonne, Loire and Rhône rivers, given the marked changes in water temperature and discharge associations detected by our new method. Conditions experienced by fall-running and spawning species have been strongly affected in all the rivers studied. This innovative methodology was implemented in a new R package, ChocR, for application to other environments and ecosystems.

Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods.

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Flow intermittence and ecosystem services in rivers of the Anthropocene.

Intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES) are watercourses that cease flow at some point in time and space. Arguably Earth's most widespread type of flowing water, IRES are expanding where Anthropocenic climates grow drier and human demands for water escalate.However, IRES have attracted far less research than perennial rivers and are undervalued by society, jeopardizing their restoration or protection. Provision of ecosystem services by IRES is especially poorly understood, hindering their integration into management plans in most countries.We conceptualize how flow intermittence governs ecosystem service provision and transfers at local and river-basin scales during flowing, non-flowing and dry phases. Even when dry or not flowing, IRES perform multiple ecosystem services that complement those of nearby perennial rivers.Synthesis and applications. Conceptualizing how flow intermittence in rivers and streams governs ecosystem services has applied a socio-ecological perspective for validating the ecosystem services of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams. This can be applied at all flow phases and in assessing impacts of altered flow intermittence on rivers and their ecosystem services in the Anthropocene.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

IRBAS: An online database to collate, analyze, and synthesize data on the biodiversity and ecology of intermittent rivers worldwide.

Key questions dominating contemporary ecological research and management concern interactions between biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and ecosystem services provision in the face of global change. This is particularly salient for freshwater biodiversity and in the context of river drying and flow-regime change. Rivers that stop flowing and dry, herein intermittent rivers, are globally prevalent and dynamic ecosystems on which the body of research is expanding rapidly, consistent with the era of big data. However, the data encapsulated by this work remain largely fragmented, limiting our ability to answer the key questions beyond a case-by-case basis. To this end, the Intermittent River Biodiversity Analysis and Synthesis (IRBAS; http://irbas.cesab.org) project has collated, analyzed, and synthesized data from across the world on the biodiversity and environmental characteristics of intermittent rivers. The IRBAS database integrates and provides free access to these data, contributing to the growing, and global, knowledge base on these ubiquitous and important river systems, for both theoretical and applied advancement. The IRBAS database currently houses over 2000 data samples collected from six countries across three continents, primarily describing aquatic invertebrate taxa inhabiting intermittent rivers during flowing hydrological phases. As such, there is room to expand the biogeographic and taxonomic coverage, for example, through addition of data collected during nonflowing and dry hydrological phases. We encourage contributions and provide guidance on how to contribute and access data. Ultimately, the IRBAS database serves as a portal, storage, standardization, and discovery tool, enabling collation, synthesis, and analysis of data to elucidate patterns in river biodiversity and guide management. Contribution creates high visibility for datasets, facilitating collaboration. The IRBAS database will grow in content as the study of intermittent rivers continues and data retrieval will allow for networking, meta-analyses, and testing of generalizations across multiple systems, regions, and taxa.