Reducing non-attendance in outpatient appointments: predictive model development, validation, and clinical assessment.

BACKGROUND: Non-attendance to scheduled hospital outpatient appointments may compromise healthcare resource planning, which ultimately reduces the quality of healthcare provision by delaying assessments and increasing waiting lists. We developed a model for predicting non-attendance and assessed the effectiveness of an intervention for reducing non-attendance based on the model. METHODS: The study was conducted in three stages: (1) model development, (2) prospective validation of the model with new data, and (3) a clinical assessment with a pilot study that included the model as a stratification tool to select the patients in the intervention. Candidate models were built using retrospective data from appointments scheduled between January 1, 2015, and November 30, 2018, in the dermatology and pneumology outpatient services of the Hospital Municipal de Badalona (Spain). The predictive capacity of the selected model was then validated prospectively with appointments scheduled between January 7 and February 8, 2019. The effectiveness of selective phone call reminders to patients at high risk of non-attendance according to the model was assessed on all consecutive patients with at least one appointment scheduled between February 25 and April 19, 2019. We finally conducted a pilot study in which all patients identified by the model as high risk of non-attendance were randomly assigned to either a control (no intervention) or intervention group, the last receiving phone call reminders one week before the appointment. RESULTS: Decision trees were selected for model development. Models were trained and selected using 33,329 appointments in the dermatology service and 21,050 in the pneumology service. Specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy for the prediction of non-attendance were 79.90%, 67.09%, and 73.49% for dermatology, and 71.38%, 57.84%, and 64.61% for pneumology outpatient services. The prospective validation showed a specificity of 78.34% (95%CI 71.07, 84.51) and balanced accuracy of 70.45% for dermatology; and 69.83% (95%CI 60.61, 78.00) for pneumology, respectively. The effectiveness of the intervention was assessed on 1,311 individuals identified as high risk of non-attendance according to the selected model. Overall, the intervention resulted in a significant reduction in the non-attendance rate to both the dermatology and pneumology services, with a decrease of 50.61% (p<0.001) and 39.33% (p=0.048), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of non-attendance can be adequately estimated using patient information stored in medical records. The patient stratification according to the non-attendance risk allows prioritizing interventions, such as phone call reminders, to effectively reduce non-attendance rates.

Prognostic value of different dead space indices in mechanically ventilated patients with acute lung injury and ARDS.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The aim of this prospective observational study was to evaluate the utility of derived dead space indexes to predict survival in mechanically ventilated patients with acute lung injury (ALI) and ARDS. STUDY POPULATION: Thirty-six patients with ALI (Murray score, > or =1; Pao(2)/fraction of inspired oxygen [Fio(2)] ratio, < 300) in critical care departments at two separate hospitals entered the study. MEASUREMENTS: At ICU admission, 24 h, and 48 h, we measured the following: simplified acute physiologic score II; Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio; respiratory system compliance; and capnographic indexes (Bohr dead space) and physiologic dead space (Enghoff dead space [Vdphys/Vt]), expired normalized CO(2) slope, carbon dioxide output, and the alveolar ejection volume (Vae)/tidal volume fraction (Vt) ratio. RESULTS: The best predictor was the Vae/Vt ratio at ICU admission (Vae/Vt-adm) and after 48 h (Vae/Vt-48 h) [p = 0.013], with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 64%. The difference between Vae/Vt-48 h and Vae/Vt-adm show a sensitivity of 73% and a specificity of 93% with a likelihood ratio (LR) of 10.2 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.83. The interaction between the Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio and Vae/Vt-adm predict survival (p = 0.003) with an area under the ROC curve of 0.84, an LR of 2.3, a sensitivity of 100%, and a specificity of 57%. The Vdphys/Vt after 48 h predicted survival (p = 0.02) with an area under the ROC curve of 0.75, an LR of 8.8, a sensitivity of 63%, and a specificity of 93%. Indexes recorded 24 h after ICU admission were not useful in explaining outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive measures of Vae/Vt at ICU admission and after 48 h of mechanical ventilation, associated with Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio provided useful information on outcome in critically ill patients with ALI.

A multicenter trial of prolonged prone ventilation in severe acute respiratory distress syndrome.

RATIONALE: Ventilation in the prone position for about 7 h/d in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute lung injury, or acute respiratory failure does not decrease mortality. Whether it is beneficial to administer prone ventilation early, and for longer periods of time, is unknown. METHODS: We enrolled 136 patients within 48 h of tracheal intubation for severe ARDS, 60 randomized to supine and 76 to prone ventilation. Guidelines were established for ventilator settings and weaning. The prone group was targeted to receive continuous prone ventilation treatment for 20 h/d. RESULTS: The intensive care unit mortality was 58% (35/60) in the patients ventilated supine and 43% (33/76) in the patients ventilated prone (p = 0.12). The latter had a higher simplified acute physiology score II at inclusion. Multivariate analysis showed that simplified acute physiology score II at inclusion (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; p < 0.001), number of days elapsed between ARDS diagnosis and inclusion (OR, 2.83; p < 0.001), and randomization to supine position (OR, 2.53; p = 0.03) were independent risk factors for mortality. A total of 718 turning procedures were done, and prone position was applied for a mean of 17 h/d for a mean of 10 d. A total of 28 complications were reported, and most were rapidly reversible. CONCLUSION: Prone ventilation is feasible and safe, and may reduce mortality in patients with severe ARDS when it is initiated early and applied for most of the day.

The fully automatic external cardioverter defibrillator: reality of a new meaningful scenario for in-hospital cardiac arrests.

Sudden cardiac death is an unresolved problem which causes significant mortality and morbidity in both the community and in-hospital setting. Cardiac arrest is often caused by ventricular tachyarrhythmias which may be mostly interrupted by cardioversion or defibrillation. The single most critical factor for survival is the response time. Over the last 30 years, there have been virtually no procedural changes in the way hospitals address in-hospital resuscitation. A unique device has been developed that eliminates human intervention and assures defibrillation therapy is administered in seconds. This is accomplished with a fully automatic, external bedside monitor defibrillator designed to be prophylactically attached to hospitalized patients at risk of ventricular tachyarrhythmia. The safety and efficacy of the device has been demonstrated in multicenter US and European trials. Thus, this device allows a new scenario which may increase survival and enables meaningful redistribution of health resources.

How to set positive end-expiratory pressure.

Application of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) in acute lung injury patients under mechanical ventilation improves oxygenation and increases lung volume. The effect of PEEP is to recruit lung tissue in patients with diffuse lung edema. This effect is particularly important in patients ventilated with low tidal volumes. Measurement of respiratory system mechanics in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome is important to assess the status of the disease and to choose appropriate ventilator settings that provide maximum alveolar recruitment while avoiding overdistention. In patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome in whom the lungs have been near-optimally recruited by PEEP and tidal volume, the use of recruitment maneuvers as adjuncts to mechanical ventilation remains controversial. The application of PEEP in patients with unilateral lung disease may be detrimental if PEEP hyperinflates normal lung regions, thus directing blood flow to diseased lung regions. In patients with air flow limitation and lung hyperinflation, the application of additional external PEEP to compensate for intrinsic PEEP and flow limitation frequently decreases the inspiratory effort to initiate an assisted breath, thus decreasing breathing work load.