Earlier diagnosis of lung cancer in a randomised trial of an autoantibody blood test followed by imaging.

The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a high-specificity blood-based autoantibody biomarker that could contribute to predicting lung cancer risk. We report on the results of a phase IV biomarker evaluation of whether using the EarlyCDT-Lung test and any subsequent computed tomography (CT) scanning to identify those at high risk of lung cancer reduces the incidence of patients with stage III/IV/unspecified lung cancer at diagnosis compared with the standard clinical practice at the time the study began.The Early Diagnosis of Lung Cancer Scotland (ECLS) trial was a randomised controlled trial of 12 208 participants at risk of developing lung cancer in Scotland in the UK. The intervention arm received the EarlyCDT-Lung test and, if test-positive, low-dose CT scanning 6-monthly for up to 2 years. EarlyCDT-Lung test-negative and control arm participants received standard clinical care. Outcomes were assessed at 2 years post-randomisation using validated data on cancer occurrence, cancer staging, mortality and comorbidities.At 2 years, 127 lung cancers were detected in the study population (1.0%). In the intervention arm, 33 out of 56 (58.9%) lung cancers were diagnosed at stage III/IV compared with 52 out of 71 (73.2%) in the control arm. The hazard ratio for stage III/IV presentation was 0.64 (95% CI 0.41-0.99). There were nonsignificant differences in lung cancer and all-cause mortality after 2 years.ECLS compared EarlyCDT-Lung plus CT screening to standard clinical care (symptomatic presentation) and was not designed to assess the incremental contribution of the EarlyCDT-Lung test. The observation of a stage shift towards earlier-stage lung cancer diagnosis merits further investigations to evaluate whether the EarlyCDT-Lung test adds anything to the emerging standard of low-dose CT.

Unconditional and conditional monetary incentives to increase response to mailed questionnaires: A randomized controlled study within a trial (SWAT).

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: High response rates to research questionnaires can help to ensure results are more representative of the population studied and provide increased statistical power, on which the study may have been predicated. Improving speed and quality of response can reduce costs. METHOD: We conducted a randomized study within a trial (SWAT) to assess questionnaire response rates, reminders sent, and data completeness with unconditional compared with conditional monetary incentives. Eligible individuals were mailed a series of psychological questionnaires as a follow-up to a baseline host trial questionnaire. Half received a £5 gift voucher with questionnaires (unconditional), and half were promised the voucher after returning questionnaires (conditional). RESULTS: Of 1079 individuals, response rates to the first follow-up questionnaire were 94.2% and 91.7% in the unconditional and conditional monetary incentive groups, respectively (OR 1.78; 95% CI, 0.85-3.72). There were significantly greater odds of returning repeat questionnaires in the unconditional group at 6 months (OR 2.97; 95% CI, 1.01-8.71; .047) but not at 12 months (OR 1.12; 95% CI, 0.44-2.85). Incentive condition had no impact at any time point on the proportion of sent questionnaires that needed reminders. Odds of incomplete questionnaires were significantly greater at 3 months in the unconditional compared with the conditional incentive group (OR 2.45; 95% CI, 1.32-4.55; .004). CONCLUSIONS: Unconditional monetary incentives can produce a transitory greater likelihood of mailed questionnaire response in a clinical trial participant group, consistent with the direction of effect in other settings. However, this could have been a chance finding. The use of multiple strategies to promote response may have created a ceiling effect. This strategy has potential to reduce administrative and postage costs, weighed against the cost of incentives used, but could risk compromising the completeness of data.

Non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein vaccine in adults with COPD: A phase 2 clinical trial.

Loss of airway microbial diversity is associated with non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) infection and increased risk of exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We assessed the safety and immunogenicity of an investigational vaccine containing NTHi antigens, recombinant protein D (PD) and combined protein E and Pilin A (PE-PilA), and AS01 adjuvant in adults with moderate/severe COPD and prior exacerbations. In this phase 2, observer-blind, controlled trial (NCT02075541), 145 COPD patients aged 40-80 years randomly (1:1) received two doses of NTHi vaccine or placebo 60 days apart, on top of standard care. Reactogenicity in the 7-day post-vaccination period was higher following NTHi vaccine than placebo. Most solicited adverse events (AEs) were mild/moderate. At least one unsolicited AE was reported during the 30-day post-vaccination period by 54.8% of NTHi vaccine and 51.4% of placebo recipients. One serious AE (placebo group) was assessed by the investigator as vaccine-related. Anti-PD, anti-PE and anti-PilA geometric mean antibody concentrations increased up to 30 days after each NTHi vaccine dose, waned thereafter, but remained higher than baseline (non-overlapping confidence intervals) up to 13 months post-dose 2. The frequency of specific CD4+ T cells increased following two doses of NTHi vaccine and remained higher than baseline. Exploratory analysis showed a statistically non-significant lower yearly rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the NTHi vaccine group than following placebo (1.49 versus 1.73) in the one-year period post-dose 2, with estimated vaccine efficacy of 13.3% (95% confidence interval -24.2 to 39.5; p = 0.44). The NTHi vaccine had an acceptable safety and reactogenicity profile and good immunogenicity in adults with COPD.

Lung cancer screening: does pulmonary nodule detection affect a range of smoking behaviours?

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality by 20%. Screen-detected abnormalities may provide teachable moments for smoking cessation. This study assesses impact of pulmonary nodule detection on smoking behaviours within the first UK trial of a novel auto-antibody test, followed by chest x-ray and serial CT scanning for early detection of lung cancer (Early Cancer Detection Test-Lung Cancer Scotland Study). METHODS: Test-positive participants completed questionnaires on smoking behaviours at baseline, 1, 3 and 6 months. Logistic regression compared outcomes between nodule (n = 95) and normal CT groups (n = 174) at 3 and 6 months follow-up. RESULTS: No significant differences were found between the nodule and normal CT groups for any smoking behaviours and odds ratios comparing the nodule and normal CT groups did not vary significantly between 3 and 6 months. There was some evidence the nodule group were more likely to report significant others wanted them to stop smoking than the normal CT group (OR across 3- and 6-month time points: 3.04, 95% CI: 0.95, 9.73; P = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Pulmonary nodule detection during lung cancer screening has little impact on smoking behaviours. Further work should explore whether lung cancer screening can impact on perceived social pressure and promote smoking cessation.

The effect of changes to GOLD severity stage on long term morbidity and mortality in COPD.

BACKGROUND: The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) severity stage classifies Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) into groups based on symptoms, exacerbations and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). This allows patients to change to less severe COPD stages, a novel aspect of assessment not previously evaluated. We aimed to investigate the association between temporal changes in GOLD severity stage and outcomes in COPD patients. METHODS: This was a record-linkage study using patients registered with a Scottish regional COPD network 2000-2015. Annual spirometry & symptoms were recorded and linked to healthcare records to identify exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality. Spirometry, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnoea scale and acute exacerbations over the previous year were used to assign GOLD severity at each visit. A time-dependent Cox model was used to model time to death. Secondary outcomes were respiratory specific mortality and hospitalisations. Effect sizes are expressed as Hazard Ratios HR (95%CI). RESULTS: Four thousand, eight hundred and eighty-five patients (mean age 67.3 years; 51.3% female) with 21,348 visits were included. During a median 6.6 years follow-up there were 1530 deaths. For the secondary outcomes there were 712 respiratory deaths and 1629 first hospitalisations. Across 16,463 visit-pairs, improvement in COPD severity was seen in 2308 (14%), no change in 11,010 (66.9%) and worsening in 3145 (19.1). Compared to patients staying in GOLD stage A, those worsening had a stepwise increased mortality and hospitalisations. CONCLUSIONS: Improving COPD severity classification was associated with reduced mortality and worsening COPD severity was associated with increased mortality and hospitalisations. Change in GOLD group has potential as monitoring tool and outcome measure in clinical trials.

Determinants of motivation to quit in smokers screened for the early detection of lung cancer: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The promotion of smoking cessation within lung cancer screening could lead to benefits for smoking-related disease and improve cost-effectiveness of screening. Little is known about how smokers respond to lung cancer screening and how this impacts smoking behaviour. We aimed to understand how lung cancer screening influences individual motivations about smoking, including in those who have stopped smoking since screening. METHODS: Thirty one long-term smokers aged 51-74 took part in semi-structured interviews about smoking. They had been screened with the EarlyCDT-Lung Test (13 positive result; 18 negative) as part of the Early Cancer Detection Test Lung Cancer Scotland Study. They were purposively sampled for interview based on their self-reported post-screening smoking behaviour. Eleven participants had stopped smoking since screening. Verbatim interview transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Two key overarching themes were interpretations of screening test results and emotional responses to those interpretations. Participants' understanding of the risk implied by their test result was often inaccurate, for example a negative result interpreted as an 'all-clear' from lung cancer and a positive result as meaning lung cancer would definitely develop. Those interpretations led to emotional responses (fear, shock, worry, relief, indifference) influencing motivations about smoking. Other themes included a wake-up call causing changes in perceived risk of smoking-related disease, a feeling that now is the time to stop smoking and family influences. There was no clear pattern in smoking motivations in those who received positive or negative test results. Of those who had stopped smoking, some cited screening experiences as the sole motivation, some cited screening along with other coinciding factors, and others cited non-screening reasons. Cues to change were experienced at different stages of the screening process. Some participants indicated they underwent screening to try and stop smoking, while others expressed little or no desire to stop. CONCLUSIONS: We observed complex and individualised motivations about smoking following lung cancer screening. To be most effective, smoking cessation support in this context should explore understanding of screening test results and may need to be highly tailored to individual emotional responses to screening.

Lung cancer CT screening: Psychological responses in the presence and absence of pulmonary nodules.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the psychological response (thoughts, perceptions and affect) to a diagnosis of pulmonary nodules following a novel antibody blood test and computed tomography (CT) scans within a UK population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was nested within a randomised controlled trial of a blood test (Early CDT®-Lung test), followed by a chest x-ray and serial CT-scanning of those with a positive blood test for early detection of lung cancer (ECLS Study). Trial participants with a positive Early CDT®-Lung test were invited to participate (n = 338) and those agreeing completed questionnaires assessing psychological outcomes at 1, 3 and 6 months following trial recruitment. Responses of individuals with pulmonary nodules on their first CT scan were compared to those without (classified as normal CT) at 3 and 6 months follow-up using random effects regression models to account for multiple observations per participant, with loge transformation of data where modelling assumptions were not met. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between the nodule and normal CT groups in affect, lung cancer worry, health anxiety, illness perceptions, lung cancer risk perception or intrusive thoughts at 3 or 6 months post-recruitment. The nodule group had statistically significantly fewer avoidance symptoms compared to the normal CT group at 3 months (impact of events scale avoidance (IES-A) difference between means -1.99, 95%CI -4.18, 0.21) than at 6 months (IES-A difference between means 0.88, 95%CI -1.32, 3.08; p-value for change over time = 0.003) with similar findings using loge transformed data. CONCLUSION: A diagnosis of pulmonary nodules following an Early CDT®-Lung test and CT scan did not appear to result in adverse psychological responses compared to those with a normal CT scan.

The effect of optimised patient information materials on recruitment in a lung cancer screening trial: an embedded randomised recruitment trial.

BACKGROUND: Written participant information materials are important for ensuring that potential trial participants receive necessary information so that they can provide informed consent. However, such materials are frequently long and complex, which may negatively impact patient understanding and willingness to participate. Improving readability, ease of comprehension and presentation may assist with improved participant recruitment. The Systematic Techniques for Assisting Recruitment to Trials (MRC START) study aimed to develop and evaluate interventions to improve trial recruitment. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of an optimised participant information brochure and cover letter developed by MRC START regarding response and participant recruitment rates. METHODS: We conducted a study within a trial (SWAT) embedded in the EarlyCDT Lung Cancer Scotland (ECLS) trial that aimed to assess the effectiveness of a new test in reducing the incidence of patients with late-stage lung cancer at diagnosis compared with standard care. Potential participants approached for ECLS were randomised to receive the original participant information brochure and accompanying letter (control group) or optimised versions of these materials which had undergone user testing and a process of re-writing, re-organisation and professional graphic design (intervention group). The primary outcome was the number of patients recruited to ECLS. The secondary outcome was the proportion of patients expressing an interest in participating in ECLS. RESULTS: In total, 2262 patients were randomised, 1136 of whom were sent the intervention materials and 1126 of whom were sent the control materials. The proportion of patients enrolled and randomised into ECLS was 180 of 1136 (15.8%) in the intervention group and 176 of 1126 (15.6%) in the control group (OR = 1.016, 95% CI, 0.660 to 1.564). The proportion of patients who positively responded to the invitation was 224 of 1136 (19.7%) in the intervention group and 205 of 1126 (18.2%) in the control group (OR = 1.103, 95% CI, 0.778 to 1.565). CONCLUSIONS: Optimised patient information materials made little difference to the proportion of patients positively responding to a trial invitation or to the proportion subsequently randomised to the host trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01925625 . Registered on 15 August 2015. Study Within A Trial, SWAT-23. Registered on 12 April 2016.

Neutrophil extracellular traps are associated with disease severity and microbiota diversity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) have been observed in the airway in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but their clinical and pathophysiologic implications have not been defined. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether NETs are associated with disease severity in patients with COPD and how they are associated with microbiota composition and airway neutrophil function. METHODS: NET protein complexes (DNA-elastase and histone-elastase complexes), cell-free DNA, and neutrophil biomarkers were quantified in soluble sputum and serum from patients with COPD during periods of disease stability and during exacerbations and compared with clinical measures of disease severity and the sputum microbiome. Peripheral blood and airway neutrophil function were evaluated by means of flow cytometry ex vivo and experimentally after stimulation of NET formation. RESULTS: Sputum NET complexes were associated with the severity of COPD evaluated by using the composite Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease scale (P < .0001). This relationship was due to modest correlations between NET complexes and FEV1, symptoms evaluated by using the COPD assessment test, and higher levels of NET complexes in patients with frequent exacerbations (P = .002). Microbiota composition was heterogeneous, but there was a correlation between NET complexes and both microbiota diversity (P = .009) and dominance of Haemophilus species operational taxonomic units (P = .01). Ex vivo airway neutrophil phagocytosis of bacteria was reduced in patients with increased sputum NET complexes. Consistent results were observed regardless of the method of quantifying sputum NETs. Failure of phagocytosis could be induced experimentally by incubating healthy control neutrophils with soluble sputum from patients with COPD. CONCLUSION: NET formation is increased in patients with severe COPD and associated with more frequent exacerbations and a loss of microbiota diversity.

Genetic mannose binding lectin deficiency is associated with airway microbiota diversity and reduced exacerbation frequency in COPD.

BACKGROUND: In cystic fibrosis and bronchiectasis, genetic mannose binding lectin (MBL) deficiency is associated with increased exacerbations and earlier mortality; associations in COPD are less clear. Preclinical data suggest MBL interferes with phagocytosis of Haemophilus influenzae, a key COPD pathogen. We investigated whether MBL deficiency impacted on clinical outcomes or microbiota composition in COPD. METHODS: Patients with COPD (n=1796) underwent MBL genotyping; linkage to health records identified exacerbations, lung function decline and mortality. A nested subcohort of 141 patients, followed for up to 6 months, was studied to test if MBL deficiency was associated with altered sputum microbiota, through 16S rRNA PCR and sequencing, or airway inflammation during stable and exacerbated COPD. FINDINGS: Patients with MBL deficiency with COPD were significantly less likely to have severe exacerbations (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.90, p=0.009), or to have moderate or severe exacerbations (IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.99, p=0.047). MBL deficiency did not affect rate of FEV1 decline or mortality. In the subcohort, patients with MBL deficiency had a more diverse lung microbiota (p=0.008), and were less likely to be colonised with Haemophilus spp. There were lower levels of airway inflammation in patients with MBL deficiency. INTERPRETATION: Patients with MBL deficient genotype with COPD have a lower risk of exacerbations and a more diverse lung microbiota. This is the first study to identify a genetic association with the lung microbiota in COPD.

Oral versus intravenous clarithromycin in moderate to severe community-acquired pneumonia: an observational study.

OBJECTIVES: British Thoracic Society guidelines recommend clarithromycin in addition to beta-lactam antibiotics for patients with community-acquired pneumonia and CURB-65 score 2-5. Intravenous therapy is commonly used but there are few data on whether oral therapy is equally effective. METHODS: This observational study used propensity matching to compare two groups of patients with moderate to severe community-acquired pneumonia (CURB-65 score 2-5) treated with oral (n = 226) or intravenous (n = 226) clarithromycin on admission. Outcomes were 30-day mortality, intensive care unit admission, time to clinical stability, and length of hospital stay. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in 30-day mortality (16.8% for intravenous [IV] group vs. 14.6% for oral group, hazard ratio for IV group 1.11 95% CI 0.70-1.78), ICU admission (10.6% in both groups) or complications (10.6% for IV group and 9.3% for oral group) between the groups. The time to clinical stability in both cohorts was a median of 5 days (interquartile range 3-7 days, p = 0.3). The median length of hospital stay was 8 days in the IV group (interquartile range 4-14 days) and 7 days in the oral group (interquartile range 4-13 days), p = 0.5. No other differences were observed between oral and IV groups. CONCLUSION: Where the oral route is not compromised, oral macrolides appear to be equivalent to IV in treating moderate to severe CAP.

Detection in blood of autoantibodies to tumour antigens as a case-finding method in lung cancer using the EarlyCDT®-Lung Test (ECLS): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer related death worldwide. The majority of cases are detected at a late stage when prognosis is poor. The EarlyCDT®-Lung Test detects autoantibodies to abnormal cell surface proteins in the earliest stages of the disease which may allow tumour detection at an earlier stage thus altering prognosis. The primary research question is: Does using the EarlyCDT®-Lung Test to identify those at high risk of lung cancer, followed by X-ray and computed tomography (CT) scanning, reduce the incidence of patients with late-stage lung cancer (III & IV) or unclassified presentation (U) at diagnosis, compared to standard practice? METHODS: A randomised controlled trial of 12 000 participants in areas of Scotland targeting general practices serving patients in the most deprived quintile of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Adults aged 50-75 who are at high risk of lung cancer and healthy enough to undergo potentially curative therapy (Performance Status 0-2) are eligible to participate. The intervention is the EarlyCDT®-Lung Test, followed by X-ray and CT in those with a positive result. The comparator is standard clinical practice in the UK. The primary outcome is the difference, after 24 months, between the rates of patients with stage III, IV or unclassified lung cancer at diagnosis. The secondary outcomes include: all-cause mortality; disease specific mortality; a range of morbidity outcomes; cost-effectiveness and measures examining the psychological and behavioural consequences of screening. Participants with a positive test result but for whom the CT scan does not lead to a lung cancer diagnosis will be offered 6 monthly thoracic CTs for 24 months. An initial chest X-ray will be used to determine the speed and the need for contrast in the first screening CT. Participants who are found to have lung cancer will be followed-up to assess both time to diagnosis and stage of disease at diagnosis. DISCUSSION: The study will determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of EarlyCDT®-Lung Test for early lung cancer detection and assess its suitability for a large-scale, accredited screening service. The study will also assess the potential psychological and behavioural harms arising from false positive or false negative results, as well as the potential benefits to patients of true negative EarlyCDT lung test results. A cost-effectiveness model of lung cancer screening based on the results of the EarlyCDT Lung Test study will be developed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01925625 . August 19, 2013.

Inhaled Corticosteroids for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease--The Shifting Treatment Paradigm.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) guidelines suggest using inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) in patients with severe airflow limitation or those at high risk of exacerbations. This recommendation is based on evidence demonstrating that ICS, especially when prescribed in fixed-dose combinations (FDC) with long-acting ß2 agonists (LABA), improve quality of life (QoL), decrease exacerbations and hospitalisations, and have been associated with a trend towards a reduction in all-cause mortality. Audit shows that routine prescribing practice frequently uses inhaler therapies outside current guidelines recommendations; severe to very severe disease constitutes about 20% of all COPD patients, but up to 75% of COPD patients are prescribed an ICS, with significant numbers given ICS/LABA as first-line maintenance therapy. The role of ICS in the treatment paradigm for COPD is changing, driven by the growing evidence of increased risk of pneumonia, and the introduction of a new class of FDC; LABA and long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMA), which simplify dual bronchodilation and present a plausible alternative therapy. As the evidence base for dual therapy bronchodilation expands, it is likely that maximal bronchodilation will move up the treatment algorithm and ICS reserved for those with more severe disease who are not controlled on dual therapy. This change has already manifested in local COPD algorithms, such as those at Tayside, and represents a significant change in recommended prescribing practice. This review reassesses the role of ICS in the shifting treatment paradigm, in the context of alternative treatment options that provide maximal bronchodilation.

Quantifying the real life risk profile of inhaled corticosteroids in COPD by record linkage analysis.

BACKGROUND: Inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), especially when prescribed in combination with long-acting ß2 agonists have been shown to improve COPD outcomes. Although there is consistent evidence linking ICS with adverse effects such as pneumonia, the complete risk profile is unclear with conflicting evidence on any association between ICS and the incidence or worsening of existing diabetes, cataracts and fractures. We investigated this using record linkage in a Dundee COPD population. METHODS: A record linkage study linking COPD and diabetes datasets with prescription, hospitalisation and mortality data via a unique Community Health Index (CHI) number. A Cox regression model was used to determine the association between ICS use and new diabetes or worsening of existing diabetes and hospitalisations for pneumonia, fractures or cataracts after adjusting for potential confounders. A time dependent analysis of exposure comparing time on versus off ICS was used to take into account patients changing their exposure status during follow-up and to prevent immortal time bias. RESULTS: 4305 subjects (3243 exposed to ICS, total of 17,229 person-years of exposure and 1062 non exposed, with a follow-up of 4,508 patient-years) were eligible for the study. There were 239 cases of new diabetes (DM) and 265 cases of worsening DM, 550 admissions for pneumonia, 288 hospitalisations for fracture and 505 cataract related admissions. The hazard ratio for the association between cumulative ICS and outcomes were 0.70 (0.43-1.12), 0.57 (0.24-1.37), 1.38 (1.09-1.74), 1.08 (0.73-1.59) and 1.42 (1.07-1.88) after multivariate analysis respectively. CONCLUSION: The use of ICS in our cohort was not associated with new onset of diabetes, worsening of existing diabetes or fracture hospitalisation. There was however an association with increased cataracts and pneumonia hospitalisations.

Thrombocytosis is associated with increased short and long term mortality after exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a role for antiplatelet therapy?

INTRODUCTION: Evidence suggests that platelets play a significant role in inflammation in addition to their role in thrombosis. Systemic inflammation is linked to poor short and long term outcomes in COPD. Increased platelet activation has been reported in acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). We investigated whether thrombocytosis is independently associated with poor outcomes following AECOPD. METHODS: An observational cohort study of patients hospitalised with AECOPD was performed. Patients were >40 years with spirometry confirmed COPD admitted between 2009 and 2011. Platelet count was recorded on admission. The primary outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included inhospital mortality and cardiovascular events. Analyses were conducted using logistic regression after adjustment for confounding variables. RESULTS: 1343 patients (49% male) were included. Median age was 72 years (IQR 63-79 years). 157 (11.7%) had thrombocytosis. Thrombocytosis was associated with both 1-year mortality and inhospital mortality; OR 1.53 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.29, p=0.030) and OR 2.37 (95% CI 1.29 to 4.34, p=0.005), respectively. Cardiovascular hospitalisation was not significantly increased (OR 1.13 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.76, p=0.600)) in patients with thrombocytosis. Aspirin or clopidogrel treatment correlated with a reduction in 1-year mortality (OR 0.63 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.85, p=0.003)) but not inhospital mortality (OR 0.69 (95% CI 0.41 to 1.11, p=0.124)). CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for confounders thrombocytosis was associated with increased 1-year mortality after exacerbation of COPD. Antiplatelet therapy was associated with significantly lower 1-year mortality and may have a protective role to play in patients with AECOPD.

Simplification of the IDSA/ATS criteria for severe CAP using meta-analysis and observational data.

The 2007 Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA)/American Thoracic Society (ATS) guidelines proposed "minor" criteria to predict intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. These criteria were based on expert opinion. Consequently, the authors of the guidelines asked investigators to determine whether the score could be simplified by excluding noncontributory variables. Each IDSA/ATS minor criterion was validated using a random effects meta-analysis of seven studies. Variables present in <5% of cases or that were nonsignificantly associated with mortality/ICU admission were excluded. A simplified score excluding these variables was tested for prediction of mortality and ICU admission in an established database. Prediction was assessed using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Leukopenia (<4000 cells·mm(-3)), thrombocytopenia (<100,000 cells·mm(-3)) and hypothermia <36°C occurred in <5% of cases. A simplified score excluding these variables was performed similarly for prediction of mortality, AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81) versus 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.82) (p=0.9) and intensive care unit admission, AUC 0.85 (95% CI 0.82-0.87) versus 0.85 (95% CI 0.82-0.88) (p=0.9). Additional predictors suggested by the IDSA/ATS were associated with mortality and ICU admission, but only incorporating acidosis (pH <7.35) altered the AUC (0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.86) (p=0.6) for mortality and 0.86 (95% CI 0.82-0.88) (p=0.8) for ICU admission). No improvements were statistically significant. The IDSA/ATS criteria can be simplified by removing three infrequent variables.

A multidisciplinary intervention to reduce antibiotic duration in lower respiratory tract infections.

OBJECTIVES: Prolonged antibiotic courses are common in patients with lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and contribute to antibiotic resistance and side effects. This study describes a multidisciplinary intervention to reduce antibiotic duration in LRTI patients. METHODS: This was a prospective before-and-after intervention study conducted from November 2011 to December 2012. Antibiotic duration was recorded for 6 months for all LRTI admissions (pneumonia, exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, exacerbation of asthma, and other LRTIs), followed by the introduction of an intervention intended to reduce the duration of antibiotic treatment. The intervention incorporated an antibiotic duration based on the CURB65 score, automatic stop dates and pharmacist feedback to prescribers. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-one patients were included in the pre-intervention group and 221 in the post-intervention group. The intervention resulted in a reduction in the duration of antibiotic treatment from 8.3 to 6.8 days (P < 0.001, 18.1% relative reduction). The rate of antibiotic-related adverse effects reduced from 31% to 19% (P = 0.03, 39.3% relative reduction). There was no increase in mortality or length of stay CONCLUSIONS: A simple intervention can significantly reduce antibiotic duration and antibiotic-related side effects.

Predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RATIONALE: There is a need to identify clinically meaningful predictors of mortality following hospitalized COPD exacerbation. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature to identify clinically important factors that predict mortality after hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Eligible studies considered adults admitted to hospital with COPD exacerbation. Two authors independently abstracted data. Odds ratios were then calculated by comparing the prevalence of each predictor in survivors versus nonsurvivors. For continuous variables, mean differences were pooled by the inverse of their variance, using a random effects model. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 37 studies included (189,772 study subjects) with risk of death ranging from 3.6% for studies considering short-term mortality, 31.0% for long-term mortality (up to 2 yr after hospitalization), and 29.0% for studies that considered solely intensive care unit (ICU)-admitted study subjects. Twelve prognostic factors (age, male sex, low body mass index, cardiac failure, chronic renal failure, confusion, long-term oxygen therapy, lower limb edema, Global Initiative for Chronic Lung Disease criteria stage 4, cor pulmonale, acidemia, and elevated plasma troponin level) were significantly associated with increased short-term mortality. Nine prognostic factors (age, low body mass index, cardiac failure, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, malignancy, FEV1, long-term oxygen therapy, and PaO2 on admission) were significantly associated with long-term mortality. Three factors (age, low Glasgow Coma Scale score, and pH) were significantly associated with increased risk of mortality in ICU-admitted study subjects. CONCLUSION: Different factors correlate with mortality from COPD exacerbation in the short term, long term, and after ICU admission. These parameters may be useful to develop tools for prediction of outcome in clinical practice.

Cardiovascular events after clarithromycin use in lower respiratory tract infections: analysis of two prospective cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: To study the association of clarithromycin with cardiovascular events in the setting of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and community acquired pneumonia. DESIGN: Analysis of two prospectively collected datasets. SETTING: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease dataset including patients admitted to one of 12 hospitals around the United Kingdom between 2009 and 2011; Edinburgh pneumonia study cohort including patients admitted to NHS Lothian Hospitals between 2005 and 2009. POPULATION: 1343 patients admitted to hospital with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 1631 patients admitted with community acquired pneumonia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Hazard ratios for cardiovascular events at one year (defined as hospital admissions with acute coronary syndrome, decompensated cardiac failure, serious arrhythmia, or sudden cardiac death) and admissions for acute coronary syndrome (acute ST elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, and unstable angina). Secondary outcomes were all cause and cardiovascular mortality at one year. RESULTS: 268 cardiovascular events occurred in the acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohort and 171 in the community acquired pneumonia cohort over one year. After multivariable adjustment, clarithromycin use in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and acute coronary syndrome-hazard ratios 1.50 (95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.97) and 1.67 (1.04 to 2.68). After multivariable adjustment, clarithromycin use in community acquired pneumonia was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.68, 1.18 to 2.38) but not acute coronary syndrome (1.65, 0.97 to 2.80). The association between clarithromycin use and cardiovascular events persisted after matching for the propensity to receive clarithromycin. A significant association was found between clarithromycin use and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.52, 1.02 to 2.26) but not all cause mortality (1.16, 0.90 to 1.51) in acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. No association was found between clarithromycin use in community acquired pneumonia and all cause mortality or cardiovascular mortality. Longer durations of clarithromycin use were associated with more cardiovascular events. Use of ß lactam antibiotics or doxycycline was not associated with increased cardiovascular events in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, suggesting an effect specific to clarithromycin. CONCLUSIONS: The use of clarithromycin in the setting of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or community acquired pneumonia may be associated with increased cardiovascular events. These findings require confirmation in other datasets.

Effect of statins on total cholesterol concentrations, cardiovascular morbidity, and all-cause mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of statin use on total cholesterol (TC) concentration has not been studied previously in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to evaluate statin-associated TC-concentration reduction and subsequent risk for cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality in COPD. METHODS: We performed a population-based cohort study using a record-linkage database in Tayside, Scotland. A total of 1017 COPD patients who had at least 2 separate TC measurements between 1993 and 2007 were studied. They were categorized into statin-exposed and statin-unexposed groups according to their statin use status during follow-up. Main outcomes were TC-concentration change from baseline, CV events, and all-cause mortality during follow-up. Multivariate Cox regression models with a time-dependent variable for statins were used to assess risk for outcomes. RESULTS: Statin-associated TC concentrations decreased by 0.86 mmol/L (16%) in patients treated for primary prevention (PP) (n = 1274) and 0.52 mmol/L (11%) in patients treated for secondary prevention (SP) (n = 443), from 5.30 mmol/L and 4.68 mmol/L at baseline, respectively. TC concentrations also declined by 2% in patients free from established CV disease and by 5% in patients with established CV disease in the statin-unexposed groups. A risk reduction of recurrent CV events with statins was observed (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.15-0.87), but not for PP (adjusted HR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.37-1.89). Statins reduced CV mortality (adjusted HR = 0.32; 95% CI, 0.13-0.77) in SP but not PP. There were statistically significant reductions in all-cause mortality in both PP (adjusted HR = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43-0.85) and SP (adjusted HR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.35-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with COPD, statins were protective from CV events and CV mortality in SP but not PP, and statins improved all-cause mortality in both PP and SP.