A DREAM Challenge to Build Prediction Models for Short-Term Discontinuation of Docetaxel in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer.

PURPOSE: Docetaxel has a demonstrated survival benefit for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC); however, 10% to 20% of patients discontinue docetaxel prematurely because of toxicity-induced adverse events, and the management of risk factors for toxicity remains a challenge. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The comparator arms of four phase III clinical trials in first-line mCRPC were collected, annotated, and compiled, with a total of 2,070 patients. Early discontinuation was defined as treatment stoppage within 3 months as a result of adverse treatment effects; 10% of patients discontinued treatment. We designed an open-data, crowd-sourced DREAM Challenge for developing models with which to predict early discontinuation of docetaxel treatment. Clinical features for all four trials and outcomes for three of the four trials were made publicly available, with the outcomes of the fourth trial held back for unbiased model evaluation. Challenge participants from around the world trained models and submitted their predictions. Area under the precision-recall curve was the primary metric used for performance assessment. RESULTS: In total, 34 separate teams submitted predictions. Seven models with statistically similar area under precision-recall curves (Bayes factor ≤ 3) outperformed all other models. A postchallenge analysis of risk prediction using these seven models revealed three patient subgroups: high risk, low risk, or discordant risk. Early discontinuation events were two times higher in the high-risk subgroup compared with the low-risk subgroup. Simulation studies demonstrated that use of patient discontinuation prediction models could reduce patient enrollment in clinical trials without the loss of statistical power. CONCLUSION: This work represents a successful collaboration between 34 international teams that leveraged open clinical trial data. Our results demonstrate that routinely collected clinical features can be used to identify patients with mCRPC who are likely to discontinue treatment because of adverse events and establishes a robust benchmark with implications for clinical trial design.

Efficacy outcomes by baseline prostate-specific antigen quartile in the AFFIRM trial.

BACKGROUND: Enzalutamide significantly prolonged the survival of men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (PCa) after docetaxel in the randomised, phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multinational Patients with Progressive Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Previously Treated with Docetaxel-Based Chemotherapy (AFFIRM) trial (NCT00974311). Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is commonly used as a marker of PCa disease burden, and the relationship of baseline PSA level to consequent treatment effect is of clinical interest. OBJECTIVE: Exploratory analysis to evaluate any differences in patient characteristics and efficacy outcomes by baseline PSA level in the AFFIRM trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Post hoc subanalysis of all randomised patients (n=1199) from the AFFIRM trial. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomly assigned in a two-to-one ratio to receive oral enzalutamide 160 mg/d or placebo. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The major clinical efficacy end points were overall survival (OS), radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS), and time to PSA progression (TTPP) versus placebo; baseline characteristics, treatment duration, and subsequent antineoplastic therapy were compared by baseline PSA quartile. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Baseline PSA quartiles corresponded to the following PSA groups: <40 ng/ml (n=299), 40 to <111 ng/ml (n=300), 111 to <406 ng/ml (n=300), and ≥406 ng/ml (n=300). Enzalutamide consistently improved OS, rPFS, and TTPP compared with placebo across all subgroups, regardless of baseline PSA level. Hazard ratios for improvements in OS were 0.55 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.85), 0.69 (95% CI, 0.47-1.02), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.53-1.01), and 0.53 (95% CI, 0.39-0.73) for PSA groups 1-4, respectively. The post hoc design of this analysis was not statistically powered to assess the relationship between baseline PSA and clinical efficacy outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This post hoc analysis of the AFFIRM trial demonstrates consistent benefits in OS, rPFS, and TTPP with enzalutamide regardless of baseline disease severity, as assessed by PSA. PATIENT SUMMARY: Exploratory post hoc analysis of the AFFIRM trial showed that enzalutamide improves overall survival, radiographic progression-free survival, and time to prostate-specific antigen progression compared with placebo regardless of baseline disease severity, as assessed by prostate-specific antigen. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00974311.