County-Level Cardiac Rehabilitation and Broadband Availability: Opportunities for Hybrid Care in the United States.

PURPOSE: Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) improves patient outcomes and quality of life and can be provided virtually through hybrid CR. However, little is known about CR availability in conjunction with broadband access, a requirement for hybrid CR. This study examined the intersection of CR and broadband availability at the county level, nationwide. METHODS: Data were gathered and analyzed in 2022 from the 2019 American Community Survey, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and the Federal Communications Commission. Spatially adaptive floating catchments were used to calculate county-level percent CR availability among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. Counties were categorized: by CR availability, whether lowest (ie, CR deserts), medium, or highest; and by broadband availability, whether CR deserts with majority-available broadband, or dual deserts. Results were stratified by state. County-level characteristics were examined for statistical significance by CR availability category. RESULTS: Almost half of US adults (n = 116 325 976, 47.2%) lived in CR desert counties (1691 counties). Among adults in CR desert counties, 96.8% were in CR deserts with majority-available broadband (112 626 906). By state, the percentage of the adult population living in CR desert counties ranged from 3.2% (New Hampshire) to 100% (Hawaii and Washington, DC). Statistically significant differences in county CR availability existed by race/ethnicity, education, and income. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of US adults live in CR deserts. Given that up to 97% of adults living in CR deserts may have broadband access, implementation of hybrid CR programs that include a telehealth component could expand CR availability to as many as 113 million US adults.

Preventable Premature Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Counties, United States, 2010-2022.

Problem/Condition: A 2019 report quantified the higher percentage of potentially excess (preventable) deaths in U.S. nonmetropolitan areas compared with metropolitan areas during 2010-2017. In that report, CDC compared national, regional, and state estimates of preventable premature deaths from the five leading causes of death in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties during 2010-2017. This report provides estimates of preventable premature deaths for additional years (2010-2022). Period Covered: 2010-2022. Description of System: Mortality data for U.S. residents from the National Vital Statistics System were used to calculate preventable premature deaths from the five leading causes of death among persons aged <80 years. CDC's National Center for Health Statistics urban-rural classification scheme for counties was used to categorize the deaths according to the urban-rural county classification level of the decedent's county of residence (1: large central metropolitan [most urban], 2: large fringe metropolitan, 3: medium metropolitan, 4: small metropolitan, 5: micropolitan, and 6: noncore [most rural]). Preventable premature deaths were defined as deaths among persons aged <80 years that exceeded the number expected if the death rates for each cause in all states were equivalent to those in the benchmark states (i.e., the three states with the lowest rates). Preventable premature deaths were calculated separately for the six urban-rural county categories nationally, the 10 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services public health regions, and the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Results: During 2010-2022, the percentage of preventable premature deaths among persons aged <80 years in the United States increased for unintentional injury (e.g., unintentional poisoning including drug overdose, unintentional motor vehicle traffic crash, unintentional drowning, and unintentional fall) and stroke, decreased for cancer and chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD), and remained stable for heart disease. The percentages of preventable premature deaths from the five leading causes of death were higher in rural counties in all years during 2010-2022. When assessed by the six urban-rural county classifications, percentages of preventable premature deaths in the most rural counties (noncore) were consistently higher than in the most urban counties (large central metropolitan and fringe metropolitan) for the five leading causes of death during the study period.During 2010-2022, preventable premature deaths from heart disease increased most in noncore (+9.5%) and micropolitan counties (+9.1%) and decreased most in large central metropolitan counties (-10.2%). Preventable premature deaths from cancer decreased in all county categories, with the largest decreases in large central metropolitan and large fringe metropolitan counties (-100.0%; benchmark achieved in both county categories in 2019). In all county categories, preventable premature deaths from unintentional injury increased, with the largest increases occurring in large central metropolitan (+147.5%) and large fringe metropolitan (+97.5%) counties. Preventable premature deaths from CLRD decreased most in large central metropolitan counties where the benchmark was achieved in 2019 and increased slightly in noncore counties (+0.8%). In all county categories, preventable premature deaths from stroke decreased from 2010 to 2013, remained constant from 2013 to 2019, and then increased in 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Percentages of preventable premature deaths varied across states by urban-rural county classification during 2010-2022. Interpretation: During 2010-2022, nonmetropolitan counties had higher percentages of preventable premature deaths from the five leading causes of death than did metropolitan counties nationwide, across public health regions, and in most states. The gap between the most rural and most urban counties for preventable premature deaths increased during 2010-2022 for four causes of death (cancer, heart disease, CLRD, and stroke) and decreased for unintentional injury. Urban and suburban counties (large central metropolitan, large fringe metropolitan, medium metropolitan, and small metropolitan) experienced increases in preventable premature deaths from unintentional injury during 2010-2022, leading to a narrower gap between the already high (approximately 69% in 2022) percentage of preventable premature deaths in noncore and micropolitan counties. Sharp increases in preventable premature deaths from unintentional injury, heart disease, and stroke were observed in 2020, whereas preventable premature deaths from CLRD and cancer continued to decline. CLRD deaths decreased during 2017-2020 but increased in 2022. An increase in the percentage of preventable premature deaths for multiple leading causes of death was observed in 2020 and was likely associated with COVID-19-related conditions that contributed to increased mortality from heart disease and stroke. Public Health Action: Routine tracking of preventable premature deaths based on urban-rural county classification might enable public health departments to identify and monitor geographic disparities in health outcomes. These disparities might be related to different levels of access to health care, social determinants of health, and other risk factors. Identifying areas with a high prevalence of potentially preventable mortality might be informative for interventions.

Stroke Mortality Among Black and White Adults Aged ≥35 Years Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic - United States, 2015-2021.

Stroke is the fifth leading cause of death and a leading cause of long-term disability in the United States (1). Although stroke death rates have declined since the 1950s, age-adjusted rates remained higher among non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black) adults than among non-Hispanic White (White) adults (1,2). Despite intervention efforts to reduce racial disparities in stroke prevention and treatment through reducing stroke risk factors, increasing awareness of stroke symptoms, and improving access to treatment and care for stroke (1,3), Black adults were 45% more likely than were White adults to die from stroke in 2018.* In 2019, age-adjusted stroke death rates (AASDRs) (stroke deaths per 100,000 population) were 101.6 among Black adults and 69.1 among White adults aged ≥35 years. Stroke deaths increased during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (March-August 2020), and minority populations experienced a disproportionate increase (4). The current study examined disparities in stroke mortality between Black and White adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysts used National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) mortality data accessed via CDC WONDER† to calculate AASDRs among Black and White adults aged ≥35 years prepandemic (2015-2019) and during the pandemic (2020-2021). Compared with that during the prepandemic period, the absolute difference in AASDR between Black and White adults during the pandemic was 21.7% higher (31.3 per 100,000 versus 38.0). During the pandemic period, an estimated 3,835 excess stroke deaths occurred among Black adults (9.4% more than expected) and 15,125 among White adults (6.9% more than expected). These findings underscore the importance of identifying the major factors contributing to the widened disparities; implementing prevention efforts, including the management and control of hypertension, high blood cholesterol, and diabetes; and developing tailored interventions to reduce disparities and advance health equity in stroke mortality between Black and White adults. Stroke is a serious medical condition that requires emergency care. Warning signs of a stroke include sudden face drooping, arm weakness, and speech difficulty. Immediate notification of Emergency Medical Services by calling 9-1-1 is critical upon recognition of stroke signs and symptoms.

Antihypertensive and Statin Medication Adherence Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

INTRODUCTION: Medication adherence is important for optimal management of chronic conditions, including hypertension and hypercholesterolemia. This study describes adherence to antihypertensive and statin medications, individually and collectively, and examines variation in adherence by demographic and geographic characteristics. METHODS: The 2017 prescription drug event data for beneficiaries with Medicare Part D coverage were assessed. Beneficiaries with a proportion of days covered ≥80% were considered adherent. Adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated to quantify the associations between demographic and geographic characteristics and adherence. Adherence estimates were mapped by county of residence using a spatial empirical Bayesian smoothing technique to enhance stability. Analyses were conducted in 2019‒2021. RESULTS: Among the 22.5 million beneficiaries prescribed antihypertensive medications, 77.1% were adherent; among the 16.1 million prescribed statin medications, 81.9% were adherent; and among the 13.5 million prescribed antihypertensive and statin medications, 70.3% were adherent to both. Adherence varied by race/ethnicity: American Indian/Alaska Native (adjusted prevalence ratio=0.83, 95% confidence limit=0.82, 0.842), Hispanic (adjusted prevalence ratio=0.90, 95% confidence limit=0.90, 0.91), and non-Hispanic Black (adjusted prevalence ratio=0.87, 95% confidence limit=0.86, 0.87) beneficiaries were less likely to be adherent than non-Hispanic White beneficiaries. County-level adherence ranged across the U.S. from 25.7% to 88.5% for antihypertensive medications, from 36.0% to 93.8% for statin medications, and from 20.8% to 92.9% for both medications combined and tended to be the lowest in the southern U.S. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights opportunities for efforts to remove barriers and support medication adherence, especially among racial/ethnic minority groups and within the regions at greatest risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes.

How Do We Jump-Start Self-measured Blood Pressure Monitoring in the United States? Addressing Barriers Beyond the Published Literature.

Hypertension is highly prevalent in the United States, and many persons with hypertension do not have controlled blood pressure. Self-measured blood pressure monitoring (SMBP), when combined with clinical support, is an evidence-based strategy for lowering blood pressure and improving control in persons with hypertension. For years, there has been support for widespread implementation of SMBP by national organizations and the federal government, and SMBP was highlighted as a primary intervention in the 2020 Surgeon General's Call to Action to Control Hypertension, yet optimal SMBP use remains low. There are well-known patient and clinician barriers to optimal SMBP documented in the literature. We explore additional high-level barriers that have been encountered, as broad policy and systems-level changes have been attempted, and offer potential solutions. Collective efforts could modernize data transfer and processing, improve broadband access, expand device coverage and increase affordability, integrate SMBP into routine care and reimbursement practices, and strengthen patient engagement, trust, and access.

Racial/Ethnic and Geographic Variations In Long-Term Survival Among Medicare Beneficiaries After Acute Ischemic Stroke.

INTRODUCTION: Little information is available about racial/ethnic and geographic variations in long-term survival among older patients (≥65) after acute ischemic stroke (AIS). METHODS: We examined data on 1,019,267 Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries aged 66 or older, hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of AIS from 2008 through 2012. Survival was defined as the time from the date of AIS to date of death, or an end of follow-up date of December 31, 2017. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate 5-year survival after AIS, adjusted for age, sex, race and Hispanic ethnicity, poverty level, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and state. RESULTS: Among 1,019,267 Medicare FFS beneficiaries hospitalized with AIS from 2008 through 2012, we documented 701,718 deaths (68.8%) during a median of 4 years of follow-up with 4.08 million person-years. The overall adjusted 5-year survival was 44%. Non-Hispanic Black men had the lowest 5-year survival, and 5-year survival varied significantly by state, from the highest at 49.1% (North Dakota) to the lowest at 40.5% (Hawaii). The ranges between the highest and lowest 5-year survival rates across states also varied significantly by racial/ethnic groups, with percentage point differences of 9.6 among non-Hispanic White, 11.3 among non-Hispanic Black, 17.7 among Hispanic, and 28.5 among other racial/ethnic beneficiaries. CONCLUSION: We identified significant racial/ethnic and geographic variations in 5-year survival rates after AIS among 2008-2012 Medicare FFS beneficiaries. Further study is needed to understand the reasons for these variations and develop prevention strategies to improve survival and racial disparities in survival after AIS.

Changing Spatiotemporal Trends in County-Level Heart Failure Death Rates in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

Background Amid recently rising heart failure (HF) death rates in the United States, we describe county-level trends in HF mortality from 1999 to 2018 by racial/ethnic group and sex for ages 35 to 64 years and 65 years and older. Methods and Results Applying a hierarchical Bayesian model to National Vital Statistics data representing all US deaths, ages 35 years and older, we estimated annual age-standardized county-level HF death rates and percent change by age group, racial/ethnic group, and sex from 1999 through 2018. During 1999 to 2011, ~30% of counties experienced increasing HF death rates among adults ages 35 to 64 years. However, during 2011 to 2018, 86.9% (95% CI, 85.2-88.2) of counties experienced increasing mortality. Likewise, for ages 65 years and older, during 1999 to 2005 and 2005 to 2011, 27.8% (95% CI, 25.8-29.8) and 12.6% (95% CI, 11.2-13.9) of counties, respectively, experienced increasing mortality. However, during 2011 to 2018, most counties (67.4% [95% CI, 65.4-69.5]) experienced increasing mortality. These temporal patterns by age group held across racial/ethnic group and sex. Conclusions These results provide local context to previously documented recent national increases in HF death rates. Although county-level declines were most common before 2011, some counties and demographic groups experienced increasing HF death rates during this period of national declines. However, recent county-level increases were pervasive, occurring across counties, racial/ethnic group, and sex, particularly among ages 35 to 64 years. These spatiotemporal patterns highlight the need to identify and address underlying clinical risk factors and social determinants of health contributing to these increasing trends.

Historic and recent trends in county-level coronary heart disease death rates by race, gender, and age group, United States, 1979-2017.

Given recent slowing of declines in national all-cause, heart disease, and stroke mortality, examining spatiotemporal distributions of coronary heart disease (CHD) death rates and trends can provide data critical to improving the cardiovascular health of populations. This paper documents county-level CHD death rates and trends by age group, race, and gender from 1979 through 2017. Using data from the National Vital Statistics System and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model, we estimated county-level age-standardized annual CHD death rates for 1979 through 2017 by age group (35-64 years, 65 years and older), race (white, black, other), and gender (men, women). We then estimated county-level total percent change in CHD death rates during four intervals (1979-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2017) using log-linear regression models. For all intervals, national CHD death rates declined for all groups. Prior to 2010, although most counties across age, race, and gender experienced declines, pockets of increasing CHD death rates were observed in the Mississippi Delta, Oklahoma, East Texas, and New Mexico across age groups and gender, and were more prominent among non-white populations than whites. Since 2010, across age, race, and gender, county-level declines in CHD death rates have slowed, with a marked increase in the percent of counties with increasing CHD death rates (e.g. 4.4% and 19.9% for ages 35 and older during 1979-1990 and 2010-2017, respectively). Recent increases were especially prevalent and geographically widespread among ages 35-64 years, with 40.5% of counties (95% CI: 38.4, 43.1) experiencing increases. Spatiotemporal differences in these long term, county-level results can inform responses by the public health community, medical providers, researchers, and communities to address troubling recent trends.

Prevalence of Self-Reported Hypertension and Antihypertensive Medication Use by County and Rural-Urban Classification - United States, 2017.

In 2017, approximately one in three U.S. adults reported having been told by a health care professional that they had high blood pressure (hypertension) (1). Although hypertension prevalence is well documented at national and state levels, less is known about rural-urban variation and county-level prevalence. To examine prevalence of self-reported hypertension and antihypertensive medication use by rural-urban classification and county, CDC analyzed data reported by 442,641 adults aged ≥18 years who participated in the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). In rural (noncore) areas, 40.0% (unadjusted prevalence) of adults reported having hypertension, whereas in the most urban (large central metro) areas, 29.4% reported having hypertension. Age-standardized hypertension prevalence was significantly higher in the most rural areas, compared with the most urban areas within nearly all categories of age, sex, and other demographic characteristics. Model-based hypertension prevalence across counties ranged from 18.0% to 55.0% and was highest in Southeastern* and Appalachian† counties. Model-based county-level prevalence of antihypertensive medication use among adults with hypertension ranged from 54.3% to 84.7%. Medication use also was higher in rural areas compared with use in most urban areas, with prevalence highest in Southeastern and Appalachian counties as well as counties in the Dakotas and Nebraska. CDC is working with states to enhance hypertension awareness and management through a strategy of team-based care that involves physicians, nurses, pharmacists, dietitians, and community health workers. The increased use of telemedicine to support this strategy might improve access to care among underserved populations.

Prevalence of Self-Reported Hypertension and Antihypertensive Medication Use Among Adults - United States, 2017.

Hypertension, or high blood pressure, is a major risk factor for heart disease and stroke (1). The prevalence of hypertension is higher among men than among women, increases with age, is highest among non-Hispanic blacks (blacks) (2), and has been consistently highest in the Southeastern region of the United States (1). To update prevalence estimates for self-reported hypertension and use of antihypertensive medication, CDC analyzed data from the 2017 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The overall (unadjusted) prevalence of self-reported hypertension was 32.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 32.1%-32.7%). The age-standardized, median state-specific prevalence of self-reported hypertension was 29.7% (range = 24.3%-38.6%). Overall age-standardized hypertension prevalence was higher among men (32.9%) than among women (27.0%), highest among blacks (40.0%), decreased with increasing levels of education and household income, and was generally highest in the Southeastern and Appalachian states.* Among persons reporting hypertension, the overall unadjusted prevalence of self-reported antihypertensive medication use was 76.0% (95% CI = 75.5%-76.4%). The age-standardized, median state-specific prevalence of antihypertensive medication use among persons with reported hypertension was 59.4% (range = 50.2%-71.2%). Prevalence was higher among women than men, highest among blacks compared with other racial/ethnic groups, and highest among states in the Southeast, Appalachia, and the Dakotas. These findings can help inform CDC's initiatives to enhance hypertension awareness, treatment, and control across all states.

Tracking Cardiac Rehabilitation Participation and Completion Among Medicare Beneficiaries to Inform the Efforts of a National Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Despite cardiac rehabilitation (CR) being shown to improve health outcomes among patients with heart disease, its use has been suboptimal. In response, the Million Hearts Cardiac Rehabilitation Collaborative developed a road map to improve CR use, including increasing participation rates to ≥70% by 2022. This observational study provides current estimates to measure progress and identifies the populations and regions most at risk for CR service underutilization. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who were CR eligible in 2016, and assessed CR participation (≥1 CR session attended), timely initiation (participation within 21 days of event), and completion (≥36 sessions attended) through 2017. Measures were assessed overall, by beneficiary characteristics and geography, and by primary CR-qualifying event type (acute myocardial infarction hospitalization; coronary artery bypass surgery; heart valve repair/replacement; percutaneous coronary intervention; or heart/heart-lung transplant). Among 366 103 CR-eligible beneficiaries, 89 327 (24.4%) participated in CR, of whom 24.3% initiated within 21 days and 26.9% completed CR. Eligibility was highest in the East South Central Census Division (14.8 per 1000). Participation decreased with increasing age, was lower among women (18.9%) compared with men (28.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio: 0.91 [95% CI, 0.90-0.93]) was lower among Hispanics (13.2%) and non-Hispanic blacks (13.6%) compared with non-Hispanic whites (25.8%; adjusted prevalence ratio: 0.63 [0.61-0.66] and 0.70 [0.67-0.72], respectively), and varied by hospital referral region and Census Division (range: 18.6% [East South Central] to 39.1% [West North Central]) and by qualifying event type (range: 7.1% [acute myocardial infarction without procedure] to 55.3% [coronary artery bypass surgery only]). Timely initiation varied by geography and qualifying event type; completion varied by geography. CONCLUSIONS: Only 1 in 4 CR-eligible Medicare beneficiaries participated in CR and marked disparities were observed. Reinforcement of current effective strategies and development of new strategies will be critical to address the noted disparities and achieve the 70% participation goal.

Potentially Excess Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Counties - United States, 2010-2017.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: A 2017 report quantified the higher percentage of potentially excess (or preventable) deaths in nonmetropolitan areas (often referred to as rural areas) compared with metropolitan areas. In that report, CDC compared national, regional, and state estimates of potentially excess deaths among the five leading causes of death in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties for 2010 and 2014. This report enhances the geographic detail by using the six levels of the 2013 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) urban-rural classification scheme for counties and extending estimates of potentially excess deaths by annual percent change (APC) and for additional years (2010-2017). Trends were tested both with linear and quadratic terms. PERIOD COVERED: 2010-2017. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: Mortality data for U.S. residents from the National Vital Statistics System were used to calculate potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes of death among persons aged <80 years. CDC's NCHS urban-rural classification scheme for counties was used to categorize the deaths according to the urban-rural county classification level of the decedent's county of residence (1: large central metropolitan [most urban], 2: large fringe metropolitan, 3: medium metropolitan, 4: small metropolitan, 5: micropolitan, and 6: noncore [most rural]). Potentially excess deaths were defined as deaths among persons aged <80 years that exceeded the number expected if the death rates for each cause in all states were equivalent to those in the benchmark states (i.e., the three states with the lowest rates). Potentially excess deaths were calculated separately for the six urban-rural county categories nationally, the 10 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services public health regions, and the 50 states and District of Columbia. RESULTS: The number of potentially excess deaths among persons aged <80 years in the United States increased during 2010-2017 for unintentional injuries (APC: 11.2%), decreased for cancer (APC: -9.1%), and remained stable for heart disease (APC: 1.1%), chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) (APC: 1.7%), and stroke (APC: 0.3). Across the United States, percentages of potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes were higher in nonmetropolitan counties in all years during 2010-2017. When assessed by the six urban-rural county classifications, percentages of potentially excess deaths in the most rural counties (noncore) were consistently higher than in the most urban counties (large central metropolitan) for the study period. Potentially excess deaths from heart disease increased most in micropolitan counties (APC: 2.5%) and decreased most in large fringe metropolitan counties (APC: -1.1%). Potentially excess deaths from cancer decreased in all county categories, with the largest decreases in large central metropolitan (APC: -16.1%) and large fringe metropolitan (APC: -15.1%) counties. In all county categories, potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes increased, with the largest increases occurring in large central metropolitan (APC: 18.3%), large fringe metropolitan (APC: 17.1%), and medium metropolitan (APC: 11.1%) counties. Potentially excess deaths from CLRD decreased most in large central metropolitan counties (APC: -5.6%) and increased most in micropolitan (APC: 3.7%) and noncore (APC: 3.6%) counties. In all county categories, potentially excess deaths from stroke exhibited a quadratic trend (i.e., decreased then increased), except in micropolitan counties, where no change occurred. Percentages of potentially excess deaths also differed among and within public health regions and across states by urban-rural county classification during 2010-2017. INTERPRETATION: Nonmetropolitan counties had higher percentages of potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes than metropolitan counties during 2010-2017 nationwide, across public health regions, and in the majority of states. The gap between the most rural and most urban counties for potentially excess deaths increased during 2010-2017 for three causes of death (cancer, heart disease, and CLRD), decreased for unintentional injury, and remained relatively stable for stroke. Urban and suburban counties (large central metropolitan and large fringe metropolitan, medium metropolitan, and small metropolitan) experienced increases in potentially excess deaths from unintentional injury during 2010-2017, leading to a narrower gap between the already high (approximately 55%) percentage of excess deaths in noncore and micropolitan counties. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION: Routine tracking of potentially excess deaths by urban-rural county classification might help public health departments and decision-makers identify and monitor public health problems and focus interventions to reduce potentially excess deaths in these areas.

Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

Background and Purpose- Recent national and state-level trends show a stalling or reversal of previously declining stroke death rates. These national trends may mask local geographic variation and changes in stroke mortality. We assessed county-level trends in stroke mortality among adults aged 35 to 64 and ≥65 years. Methods- We used data from National Vital Statistics Systems and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized annual stroke death rates for 2010 through 2016 among middle-aged adults (35-64 years) and older adults (≥65 years) in US counties. We used log-linear regression models to estimate average annual and total percent change in stroke mortality during the period. Results- Nationally, the annual percent change in stroke mortality from 2010 to 2016 was -0.7% (95% CI, -4.2% to 3.0%) among middle-aged adults and -3.5% (95% CI, -10.7% to 4.3%) among older adults, resulting in 2016 rates of 15.0 per 100 000 and 259.8 per 100 000, respectively. Increasing county-level stroke mortality was more prevalent among middle-aged adults (56.6% of counties) compared with among older adults (26.1% of counties). About half (48.3%) of middle-aged adults, representing 60.2 million individuals, lived in counties in which stroke mortality increased. Conclusions- County-level increases in stroke mortality clarify previously reported national and state-level trends, particularly among middle-aged adults. Roughly 3×as many counties experienced increases in stroke death rates for middle-aged adults compared with older adults. This highlights a need to address stroke prevention and treatment for middle-aged adults while continuing efforts to reduce stroke mortality among the more highly burdened older adults. Efforts to reverse these troubling local trends will likely require joint public health and clinical efforts to develop innovative and integrated approaches for stroke prevention and care, with a focus on community-level characteristics that support stroke-free living for all.

The Rate Stabilizing Tool: Generating Stable Local-Level Measures of Chronic Disease.

Accurate and precise estimates of local-level epidemiologic measures are critical to informing policy and program decisions, but they often require advanced statistical knowledge, programming/coding skills, and extensive computing power. In response, we developed the Rate Stabilizing Tool (RST), an ArcGIS-based tool that enables users to input their own record-level data to generate more reliable age-standardized measures of chronic disease (eg, prevalence rates, mortality rates) or other population health outcomes at the county or census tract levels. The RST uses 2 forms of empirical Bayesian modeling (nonspatial and spatial) to estimate age-standardized rates and 95% credible intervals for user-specified geographic units. The RST also provides indicators of the reliability of point estimates. In addition to reviewing the RST's statistical techniques, we present results from a simulation study that illustrates the key benefit of smoothing. We demonstrate the dramatic reduction in root mean-squared error (rMSE), indicating a better compromise between accuracy and stability for both smoothing approaches relative to the unsmoothed estimates. Finally, we provide an example of the RST's use. This example uses heart disease mortality data for North Carolina census tracts to map the RST output, including reliability of estimates, and demonstrates a subsequent statistical test.

Changing rate orders of race-gender heart disease death rates: An exploration of county-level race-gender disparities.

A holistic view of racial and gender disparities that simultaneously compares multiple groups can suggest associated underlying contextual factors. Therefore, to more comprehensively understand temporal changes in combined racial and gender disparities, we examine variations in the orders of county-level race-gender specific heart disease death rates by age group from 1973-2015. We estimated county-level heart disease death rates by race, gender, and age group (35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, ≥ 85, and ≥ 35) from the National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics from 1973-2015. We then ordered these rates from lowest to highest for each county and year. The predominant national rate order (i.e., white women (WW) < black women (BW) < white men (WM) < black men (BM)) was most common in younger age groups. Inverted rates for black women and white men (WW

Before the here and now: What we can learn from variation in spatiotemporal patterns of changing heart disease mortality by age group, time period, and birth cohort.

One hypothesized explanation for the recent slowing of declines in heart disease death rates is the generational shift in the timing and accumulation of risk factors. However, directly testing this hypothesis requires historical age-group-specific risk factor data that do not exist. Using national death records, we compared spatiotemporal patterns of heart disease death rates by age group, time period, and birth cohort to provide insight into possible drivers of trends. To do this, we calculated county-level percent change for five time periods (1973-1980, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2010, 2010-2015) for four age groups (35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74), resulting in eight birth cohorts for each decade from the 1900s through the 1970s. From 1973 through 1990, few counties experienced increased heart disease death rates. In 1990-2000, 49.0% of counties for ages 35-44 were increasing, while all other age groups continued to decrease. In 2000-2010, heart disease death rates for ages 45-54 increased in 30.4% of counties. In 2010-2015, all four age groups showed widespread increasing county-level heart disease death rates. Likewise, birth cohorts from the 1900s through the 1930s experienced consistently decreasing heart disease death rates in almost all counties. Similarly, with the exception of 2010-2015, most counties experienced decreases for the 1940s birth cohort. For birth cohorts in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, increases were common and geographically widespread for all age groups and calendar years. This analysis revealed variation in trends across age groups and across counties. However, trends in heart disease death rates tended to be generally decreasing and increasing for early and late birth cohorts, respectively. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that recent increases in heart disease mortality stem from the beginnings of the obesity and diabetes epidemics. However, the common geographic patterns within the earliest and latest time periods support the importance of place-based macro-level factors.

Heart Disease Death Rates Among Blacks and Whites Aged ≥35 Years - United States, 1968-2015.

PROBLEM/CONDITION: Heart disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. In 2015, heart disease accounted for approximately 630,000 deaths, representing one in four deaths in the United States. Although heart disease death rates decreased 68% for the total population from 1968 to 2015, marked disparities in decreases exist by race and state. PERIOD COVERED: 1968-2015. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) data on deaths in the United States were abstracted for heart disease using diagnosis codes from the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8, ICD-9, and ICD-10) for 1968-2015. Population estimates were obtained from NVSS files. National and state-specific heart disease death rates for the total population and by race for adults aged ≥35 years were calculated for 1968-2015. National and state-specific black-white heart disease mortality ratios also were calculated. Death rates were age standardized to the 2000 U.S. standard population. Joinpoint regression was used to perform time trend analyses. RESULTS: From 1968 to 2015, heart disease death rates decreased for the total U.S. population among adults aged ≥35 years, from 1,034.5 to 327.2 per 100,000 population, respectively, with variations in the magnitude of decreases by race and state. Rates decreased for the total population an average of 2.4% per year, with greater average decreases among whites (2.4% per year) than blacks (2.2% per year). At the national level, heart disease death rates for blacks and whites were similar at the start of the study period (1968) but began to diverge in the late 1970s, when rates for blacks plateaued while rates for whites continued to decrease. Heart disease death rates among blacks remained higher than among whites for the remainder of the study period. Nationwide, the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates increased from 1.04 in 1968 to 1.21 in 2015, with large increases occurring during the 1970s and 1980s followed by small but steady increases until approximately 2005. Since 2005, modest decreases have occurred in the black-white ratio of heart disease death rates at the national level. The majority of states had increases in black-white mortality ratios from 1968 to 2015. The number of states with black-white mortality ratios >1 increased from 16 (40%) to 27 (67.5%). INTERPRETATION: Although heart disease death rates decreased both for blacks and whites from 1968 to 2015, substantial differences in decreases were found by race and state. At the national level and in most states, blacks experienced smaller decreases in heart disease death rates than whites for the majority of the period. Overall, the black-white disparity in heart disease death rates increased from 1968 to 2005, with a modest decrease from 2005 to 2015. PUBLIC HEALTH ACTION: Since 1968, substantial increases have occurred in black-white disparities of heart disease death rates in the United States at the national level and in many states. These increases appear to be due to faster decreases in heart disease death rates for whites than blacks, particularly from the late 1970s until the mid-2000s. Despite modest decreases in black-white disparities at the national level since 2005, in 2015, heart disease death rates were 21% higher among blacks than among whites. This study demonstrates the use of NVSS data to conduct surveillance of heart disease death rates by race and of black-white disparities in heart disease death rates. Continued surveillance of temporal trends in heart disease death rates by race can provide valuable information to policy makers and public health practitioners working to reduce heart disease death rates both for blacks and whites and disparities between blacks and whites.