Predictive modeling of schizophrenia from genomic data: Comparison of polygenic risk score with kernel support vector machines approach.

A major controversy in psychiatric genetics is whether nonadditive genetic interaction effects contribute to the risk of highly polygenic disorders. We applied a support vector machines (SVMs) approach, which is capable of building linear and nonlinear models using kernel methods, to classify cases from controls in a large schizophrenia case-control sample of 11,853 subjects (5,554 cases and 6,299 controls) and compared its prediction accuracy with the polygenic risk score (PRS) approach. We also investigated whether SVMs are a suitable approach to detecting nonlinear genetic effects, that is, interactions. We found that PRS provided more accurate case/control classification than either linear or nonlinear SVMs, and give a tentative explanation why PRS outperforms both multivariate regression and linear kernel SVMs. In addition, we observe that nonlinear kernel SVMs showed higher classification accuracy than linear SVMs when a large number of SNPs are entered into the model. We conclude that SVMs are a potential tool for assessing the presence of interactions, prior to searching for them explicitly.

Permutation-based approaches do not adequately allow for linkage disequilibrium in gene-wide multi-locus association analysis.

Additional information about risk genes or risk pathways for diseases can be extracted from genome-wide association studies through analyses of groups of markers. The most commonly employed approaches involve combining individual marker data by adding the test statistics, or summing the logarithms of their P-values, and then using permutation testing to derive empirical P-values that allow for the statistical dependence of single-marker tests arising from linkage disequilibrium (LD). In the present study, we use simulated data to show that these approaches fail to reflect the structure of the sampling error, and the effect of this is to give undue weight to correlated markers. We show that the results obtained are internally inconsistent in the presence of strong LD, and are externally inconsistent with the results derived from multi-locus analysis. We also show that the results obtained from regression and multivariate Hotelling T(2) (H-T2) testing, but not those obtained from permutations, are consistent with the theoretically expected distributions, and that the H-T2 test has greater power to detect gene-wide associations in real datasets. Finally, we show that while the results from permutation testing can be made to approximate those from regression and multivariate Hotelling T(2) testing through aggressive LD pruning of markers, this comes at the cost of loss of information. We conclude that when conducting multi-locus analyses of sets of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, regression or multivariate Hotelling T(2) testing, which give equivalent results, are preferable to the other more commonly applied approaches.