Epidemic management and control through risk-dependent individual contact interventions.

Testing, contact tracing, and isolation (TTI) is an epidemic management and control approach that is difficult to implement at scale because it relies on manual tracing of contacts. Exposure notification apps have been developed to digitally scale up TTI by harnessing contact data obtained from mobile devices; however, exposure notification apps provide users only with limited binary information when they have been directly exposed to a known infection source. Here we demonstrate a scalable improvement to TTI and exposure notification apps that uses data assimilation (DA) on a contact network. Network DA exploits diverse sources of health data together with the proximity data from mobile devices that exposure notification apps rely upon. It provides users with continuously assessed individual risks of exposure and infection, which can form the basis for targeting individual contact interventions. Simulations of the early COVID-19 epidemic in New York City are used to establish proof-of-concept. In the simulations, network DA identifies up to a factor 2 more infections than contact tracing when both harness the same contact data and diagnostic test data. This remains true even when only a relatively small fraction of the population uses network DA. When a sufficiently large fraction of the population (≳ 75%) uses network DA and complies with individual contact interventions, targeting contact interventions with network DA reduces deaths by up to a factor 4 relative to TTI. Network DA can be implemented by expanding the computational backend of existing exposure notification apps, thus greatly enhancing their capabilities. Implemented at scale, it has the potential to precisely and effectively control future epidemics while minimizing economic disruption.

Solar geoengineering may not prevent strong warming from direct effects of CO2 on stratocumulus cloud cover.

Discussions of countering global warming with solar geoengineering assume that warming owing to rising greenhouse-gas concentrations can be compensated by artificially reducing the amount of sunlight Earth absorbs. However, solar geoengineering may not be fail-safe to prevent global warming because CO2 can directly affect cloud cover: It reduces cloud cover by modulating the longwave radiative cooling within the atmosphere. This effect is not mitigated by solar geoengineering. Here, we use idealized high-resolution simulations of clouds to show that, even under a sustained solar geoengineering scenario with initially only modest warming, subtropical stratocumulus clouds gradually thin and may eventually break up into scattered cumulus clouds, at concentrations exceeding 1,700 parts per million (ppm). Because stratocumulus clouds cover large swaths of subtropical oceans and cool Earth by reflecting incident sunlight, their loss would trigger strong (about 5 K) global warming. Thus, the results highlight that, at least in this extreme and idealized scenario, solar geoengineering may not suffice to counter greenhouse-gas-driven global warming.

Unified Entrainment and Detrainment Closures for Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Schemes.

We demonstrate that an extended eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme can be used as a unified parameterization of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection across a range of dynamical regimes, from dry convective boundary layers, through shallow convection, to deep convection. Central to achieving this unified representation of subgrid-scale motions are entrainment and detrainment closures. We model entrainment and detrainment rates as a combination of turbulent and dynamical processes. Turbulent entrainment/detrainment is represented as downgradient diffusion between plumes and their environment. Dynamical entrainment/detrainment is proportional to a ratio of a relative buoyancy of a plume and a vertical velocity scale, that is modulated by heuristic nondimensional functions which represent their relative magnitudes and the enhanced detrainment due to evaporation from clouds in drier environment. We first evaluate the closures off-line against entrainment and detrainment rates diagnosed from large eddy simulations (LESs) in which tracers are used to identify plumes, their turbulent environment, and mass and tracer exchanges between them. The LES are of canonical test cases of a dry convective boundary layer, shallow convection, and deep convection, thus spanning a broad rangeof regimes. We then compare the LES with the full EDMF scheme, including the new closures, in a single-column model (SCM). The results show good agreement between the SCM and LES in quantities that are key for climate models, including thermodynamic profiles, cloud liquid water profiles, and profiles of higher moments of turbulent statistics. The SCM also captures well the diurnal cycle of convection and the onset of precipitation.

An Extended Eddy-Diffusivity Mass-Flux Scheme for Unified Representation of Subgrid-Scale Turbulence and Convection.

Large-scale weather forecasting and climate models are beginning to reach horizontal resolutions of kilometers, at which common assumptions made in existing parameterization schemes of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection-such as that they adjust instantaneously to changes in resolved-scale dynamics-cease to be justifiable. Additionally, the common practice of representing boundary-layer turbulence, shallow convection, and deep convection by discontinuously different parameterizations schemes, each with its own set of parameters, has contributed to the proliferation of adjustable parameters in large-scale models. Here we lay the theoretical foundations for an extended eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme that has explicit time-dependence and memory of subgrid-scale variables and is designed to represent all subgrid-scale turbulence and convection, from boundary layer dynamics to deep convection, in a unified manner. Coherent up and downdrafts in the scheme are represented as prognostic plumes that interact with their environment and potentially with each other through entrainment and detrainment. The more isotropic turbulence in their environment is represented through diffusive fluxes, with diffusivities obtained from a turbulence kinetic energy budget that consistently partitions turbulence kinetic energy between plumes and environment. The cross-sectional area of up and downdrafts satisfies a prognostic continuity equation, which allows the plumes to cover variable and arbitrarily large fractions of a large-scale grid box and to have life cycles governed by their own internal dynamics. Relatively simple preliminary proposals for closure parameters are presented and are shown to lead to a successful simulation of shallow convection, including a time-dependent life cycle.

Numerics and subgrid-scale modeling in large eddy simulations of stratocumulus clouds.

Stratocumulus clouds are the most common type of boundary layer cloud; their radiative effects strongly modulate climate. Large eddy simulations (LES) of stratocumulus clouds often struggle to maintain fidelity to observations because of the sharp gradients occurring at the entrainment interfacial layer at the cloud top. The challenge posed to LES by stratocumulus clouds is evident in the wide range of solutions found in the LES intercomparison based on the DYCOMS-II field campaign, where simulated liquid water paths for identical initial and boundary conditions varied by a factor of nearly 12. Here we revisit the DYCOMS-II RF01 case and show that the wide range of previous LES results can be realized in a single LES code by varying only the numerical treatment of the equations of motion and the nature of subgrid-scale (SGS) closures. The simulations that maintain the greatest fidelity to DYCOMS-II observations are identified. The results show that using weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO) numerics for all resolved advective terms and no explicit SGS closure consistently produces the highest-fidelity simulations. This suggests that the numerical dissipation inherent in WENO schemes functions as a high-quality, implicit SGS closure for this stratocumulus case. Conversely, using oscillatory centered difference numerical schemes for momentum advection, WENO numerics for scalars, and explicitly modeled SGS fluxes consistently produces the lowest-fidelity simulations. We attribute this to the production of anomalously large SGS fluxes near the cloud tops through the interaction of numerical error in the momentum field with the scalar SGS model.

Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone.

Rainfall on Earth is most intense in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a narrow belt of clouds centred on average around six degrees north of the Equator. The mean position of the ITCZ north of the Equator arises primarily because the Atlantic Ocean transports energy northward across the Equator, rendering the Northern Hemisphere warmer than the Southern Hemisphere. On seasonal and longer timescales, the ITCZ migrates, typically towards a warming hemisphere but with exceptions, such as during El Niño events. An emerging framework links the ITCZ to the atmospheric energy balance and may account for ITCZ variations on timescales from years to geological epochs.

Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters.

In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain (orography), and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds. However, the differences in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves--nearly stationary Rossby waves--generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. We demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model, with which we show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries.

The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change.

Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extratropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.