Forecasting the onset of depression with limited baseline data only: A comparison of a person-specific and a multilevel modeling based exponentially weighted moving average approach.

The onset of depressive episodes is preceded by changes in mean levels of affective experiences, which can be detected using the exponentially weighted moving average procedure on experience sampling method (ESM) data. Applying the exponentially weighted moving average procedure requires sufficient baseline data from the person under study in healthy times, which is needed to calculate a control limit for monitoring incoming ESM data. It is, however, not trivial to obtain sufficient baseline data from a single person. We therefore investigate whether historical ESM data from healthy individuals can help establish an adequate control limit for the person under study via multilevel modeling. Specifically, we focus on the case in which there is very little baseline data available of the person under study (i.e., up to 7 days). This multilevel approach is compared with the traditional, person-specific approach, where estimates are obtained using the person's available baseline data. Predictive performance in terms of Matthews correlation coefficient did not differ much between the approaches; however, the multilevel approach was more sensitive at detecting mean changes. This implies that for low-cost and nonharmful interventions, the multilevel approach may prove particularly beneficial. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

How a general vulnerability for psychopathology during adolescence manifests in young adults' daily lives.

BACKGROUND: There is widespread interest in the general factor of psychopathology or 'p factor', which has been proposed to reflect vulnerability to psychopathology. We examined to what extent this 'vulnerability' is associated with dysregulations in affect and behavior that occur in daily life. As such we hoped to provide an account of how this vulnerability may be maintained. METHODS: We used data from the Tracking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS; N = 2,772) collected at ages 11, 14, 16, 19, and 22 years to fit a bifactor model with a general psychopathology factor, alongside internalizing, externalizing (EXT), attention-deficit/hyperactivity, and autism spectrum problem domains. Following the fifth TRAILS assessment, a subsample of participants (n = 133, age = 22.6, 43% women) with heightened risk for psychopathology completed a 6-month daily diary protocol with one assessment each day. Using a dynamic structural equation approach, we examined to what extent mean intensity, variability, inertia, and within-day co-occurrence of EXT, anxious-tense, and depressed-withdrawn affects and behaviors were associated with general factor scores. RESULTS: Unexpectedly, higher general factor scores were not associated with higher mean intensity of any of the three types of daily negative affects and behaviors, but were associated with higher variability and less carryover (inertia) EXT affects and behaviors. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that individual differences in general factor scores do not manifest as differences in average levels of daily affects and behaviors, but instead were related to a type of EXT reactivity to the environment. Future research is necessary to investigate whether reactive irritable moods may be involved in or signal vulnerability sustained psychopathology.

Monitoring emotional intensity and variability to forecast depression recurrence in real time in remitted adults.

OBJECTIVE: Recurrent depressive episodes are preceded by changing mean levels of repeatedly assessed emotions (e.g., feeling restless), which can be detected in real time using statistical process control (SPC). This study investigated whether monitoring changes in the standard deviation (SD) of emotions and negative thinking improves the early detection of recurrent depression. METHOD: Formerly depressed adults (N = 41) monitored their emotions five times a day for 4 consecutive months. During the study, 22 individuals experienced recurrent depression. We used SPC to detect warning signs (i.e., changing means and SDs) of four emotions (positive and negative affect with high or low arousal) and negative thinking. RESULTS: SD-based warning signs only preceded 23%-36% of recurrences, but almost never reflected a false alarm (0%-16%). Correspondingly, SD-based warnings had a high specificity (at the cost of sensitivity), while mean-based warnings had a higher sensitivity (but lower specificity). There was little overlap in mean- and SD-based warning signs. For the majority of emotions, monitoring for high SDs alongside monitoring changes in mean levels improved the detection of depression (p < .015) compared to when only monitoring for changing mean levels. CONCLUSIONS: Warning signs for depression manifest not only in changing mean levels of emotions and cognitions but also in increasing SDs. These warnings could eventually be used to detect not just who is at increased risk for depression but also when risk is rising. Further research is needed to evaluate the clinical utility of depression SPC. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Mapping insomnia symptoms and circadian preferences to mental health problems in men and women across the lifespan.

This study identified subgroups in the general population based on combinations in three night-time insomnia symptoms and four dimensions of circadian preferences ("sleep profiles") and investigated the associations between sleep profiles and nine common mental health problems. The data came from the Lifelines cohort add-on study "Comorbid Conditions of ADHD" and included 37,716 individuals (aged 4-91 years) from the Dutch general population who completed a digital survey. Latent profile analysis was used to identify sleep profiles in twelve age-sex subgroups. Linear regression was used to investigate whether sleep profiles differ in mental health problems. Participants were classified into three sleep profiles: "Healthy Larks", who had early circadian preferences and no insomnia symptoms; "Sleepy Owls" with late circadian preferences and nonrestorative sleep; and "Sleepless Doves" with intermediate circadian preferences and severe insomnia symptoms. Compared to "Healthy Larks", all mental health problems were significantly more severe in "Sleepy Owls" and even worse in "Sleepless Doves". These associations were similar in men and women but weakened with age. However, "Sleepy Owls" and "Sleepless Doves" did not differ in heavy alcohol drinking, drug use, and smoking. Our findings strengthened the evidence for the universal role of healthy sleep in mental wellbeing.

Nonlinear associations between insomnia symptoms and circadian preferences in the general population: Symptom-specific and lifespan differences in men and women.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated (non)linear associations between different eveningness characteristics (bedtime, wake time, morning affect, and peak performance time) and insomnia symptoms (difficulties initiating sleep, difficulties maintaining sleep, and nonrestorative sleep) in a large general population sample. METHODS: The data came from digital surveys about insomnia (Minimal Insomnia Scale) and circadian preferences (Children's Chronotype Questionnaire/Composite Scale of Morningness) completed by the Dutch general population (37,389 participants aged 4-91years, 42.4% men) in the Lifelines cohort substudy Comorbid Conditions of ADHD. RESULTS: Using generalized additive modeling, we found that different characteristics of eveningness related to insomnia either exponentially (later wake time/peak performance time, worse morning affect) or quadratically (early and late bedtime/midpoint of sleep). While difficulties initiating sleep and nonrestorative sleep were strongly associated with all eveningness characteristics, difficulties maintaining sleep related only to earlier bedtimes. These relationships were similar for men and women but varied partly in shapes and strengths across the lifespan. Additional analyses showed that bedtime and wake time were associated with insomnia symptoms only when their combination would result in an unusually long or short preferred time in bed. CONCLUSION: The association between eveningness and insomnia symptoms highly depends on whether eveningness is reflected by daytime performance or sleep-wake time. The pattern and strength of these associations also vary depending on age and insomnia symptom, but less so on sex. Future sleep-related research and policies relying on circadian preferences should account for the nonlinearity, dimension/symptom-related specificity and age-related differences in the association between eveningness and insomnia symptoms.

The effect of universal school-based mindfulness on anhedonia and emotional distress and its underlying mechanisms: A cluster randomised controlled trial via experience sampling in secondary schools.

This cluster randomised controlled trial examined the effectiveness of universal school-based mindfulness training (MT; vs. passive control) to lower anhedonia and emotional distress among mid-adolescents (15-18 years). It further examined three potential mechanisms: dampening of positive emotions, non-acceptance/suppression of negative emotions, and perceived social pressure not to experience/express negative emotions. Adolescents (ncontrol = 136, nintervention = 95) participated in three assessment points (before, after and two/three months after the in-class MT), consisting of Experience Sampling (ES) assessments and self-report questionnaires (SRQs) to corroborate the ES assessments. Analyses were based on general linear modelling and multilevel modelling. Overall, no evidence was found for a significant beneficial and long-lasting impact of the MT on adolescents' mental health. Importantly, some barriers inherently linked to universal MT approaches (low engagement in and mixed attitudes towards the MT) may have tempered the effectiveness of the MT in the current trial. Further research should prioritise overcoming these barriers to optimise programme implementation. Additionally, given the potential complex interplay of moderators at micro- (home practice), meso- (school climate), and macro-level (broader context), research should simultaneously focus on alternative ways of delivering MT at schools to strengthen adolescents' mental health.

Participation and compliance in a 6-month daily diary study among individuals at risk for mental health problems.

Intensive longitudinal (IL) measurement, which involves prolonged self-monitoring, may have important clinical applications but is also burdening. This raises the question who takes part in and successfully completes IL measurements. This preregistered study investigated which demographic, personality, economic, social, psychological, or physical participant characteristics are associated with participation and compliance in an IL study conducted in young adults at enhanced risk for psychopathology. Dutch young adults enrolled in the clinical cohort of the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS) were invited to a 6-month daily diary study. Participant characteristics came from five earlier TRAILS assessment waves collected from Age 11 onwards. To evaluate participation, we compared diary study participants (N = 134) to nonparticipants (N = 309) and a sex-matched subsample (N = 1926) of individuals from the general population cohort of TRAILS. To evaluate compliance, we analyzed which characteristics were related to the proportion of completed diary entries. We found that participants (23.6 ± 0.7 years old; 57% male) were largely similar to nonparticipants. In addition, compared to the general population, participants reported more negative scores on nearly all characteristics. Internalizing problems predicted higher compliance. Externalizing problems, antisocial behavior, and daily smoking predicted lower compliance. Thus, in at-risk young adults, who scored lower on nearly every positive characteristic and higher on every negative characteristic relative to the general population, participation in a diary study is unbiased. Small biases in compliance occur, of which researchers should be aware. IL measurement is thus suitable in at-risk populations, which is a requirement for its usefulness in clinical practice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The Associations of Affection and Rejection During Adolescence with Interpersonal Functioning in Young Adulthood: A Macro- and Micro- Level Investigation Using the TRAILS TRANS-ID Study.

Affection and rejection in close relationships during adolescence are thought to impact adult interpersonal functioning, but few studies focused on how the quality of adolescents' relationships with different people (e.g. parents, peers, and teachers) impacts the daily, micro-level social experiences as well as general, macro-level interpersonal functioning in young adulthood. The present study investigated the associations between: (i) parental, teacher and peer affection and rejection during adolescence and macro-level (over several months) interpersonal functioning as well as different patterns (i.e. mean, variability and inertia) of micro-level (daily social experiences) during young adulthood; (ii) macro-level interpersonal functioning and the patterns of micro-level social experiences during young adulthood. The sample consisted of N = 122 (43% female) youth. At 11.2 ± 0.4 and 16.0 ± 0.6 years old, self- and other-reported parental, peer and teacher affection and rejection were assessed. At 23.7 ± 0.6 years old, participants reported daily social experiences and interpersonal functioning across six months. The results suggested that: (i) higher teacher-reported peer rejection was associated with lower macro-level interpersonal functioning, higher means and higher variability in negative social experiences during adulthood; (ii) higher macro-level interpersonal functioning during young adulthood was associated with higher means and lower inertia in positive and lower variability in negative daily social experiences. These findings indicate that the affection and rejection during adolescence impact interpersonal functioning at macro- and micro-level during adulthood. The present study also shows distinct associations between macro-level interpersonal functioning and dynamics in daily social experiences.

Anticipating manic and depressive transitions in patients with bipolar disorder using early warning signals.

BACKGROUND: In bipolar disorder treatment, accurate episode prediction is paramount but remains difficult. A novel idiographic approach to prediction is to monitor generic early warning signals (EWS), which may manifest in symptom dynamics. EWS could thus form personalized alerts in clinical care. The present study investigated whether EWS can anticipate manic and depressive transitions in individual patients with bipolar disorder. METHODS: Twenty bipolar type I/II patients (with ≥ 2 episodes in the previous year) participated in ecological momentary assessment (EMA), completing five questionnaires a day for four months (Mean = 491 observations per person). Transitions were determined by weekly completed questionnaires on depressive (Quick Inventory for Depressive Symptomatology Self-Report) and manic (Altman Self-Rating Mania Scale) symptoms. EWS (rises in autocorrelation at lag-1 and standard deviation) were calculated in moving windows over 17 affective and symptomatic EMA states. Positive and negative predictive values were calculated to determine clinical utility. RESULTS: Eleven patients reported 1-2 transitions. The presence of EWS increased the probability of impending depressive and manic transitions from 32-36% to 46-48% (autocorrelation) and 29-41% (standard deviation). However, the absence of EWS could not be taken as a sign that no transition would occur in the near future. The momentary states that indicated nearby transitions most accurately (predictive values: 65-100%) were full of ideas, worry, and agitation. Large individual differences in the utility of EWS were found. CONCLUSIONS: EWS show theoretical promise in anticipating manic and depressive transitions in bipolar disorder, but the level of false positives and negatives, as well as the heterogeneity within and between individuals and preprocessing methods currently limit clinical utility.

Shared and individual-specific daily stress-reactivity in a cross-diagnostic at-risk sample.

Altered stress-reactivity may represent a general risk factor for psychopathology. In a broad at-risk sample, we examined (a) how stress and mild, daily expressions of psychopathology were interrelated over time, (b) whether we could detect subgroups with similar dynamics between stress and daily expressions of psychopathology (i.e., stress-reactivity), and (c) whether stress-reactivity was associated with psychopathology and social functioning. One hundred twenty-two young adults (43.4% women, mean age 23.6) at risk for developing a wide range of psychopathology completed a 6-month daily diary study. We used group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) to identify temporal associations between event stress and 11 mild expressions of psychopathology (e.g., feeling down, restlessness) at group, subgroup, and individual levels. Stress was associated with feeling irritated during the same day for >70% of individuals, and with feeling down and worrying during the same day for >50% of individuals. No stable subgroups characterized by similar daily stress-reactivity were identified. Instead, we observed 71 different stress-reactivity patterns in 122 individuals. Average daily event stress, but not overall stress-reactivity (weighted stress-response), was associated with psychopathology severity and social dysfunction. This study showed important similarities, as well as many differences between individuals, in terms of the impact of stress on mild expressions of psychopathology in daily life. Clustering based on similar stress-reactivity did not lead to stable subgroups. Finally, average daily stress levels, but not daily stress-reactivity, were associated with psychopathologic severity and social dysfunction. Findings highlight the importance of considering heterogeneity in stress-reactivity, but also challenges for identifying generalizable processes in doing so. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Anticipating the direction of symptom progression using critical slowing down: a proof-of-concept study.

BACKGROUND: As complex dynamic systems approach a transition, their dynamics change. This process, called critical slowing down (CSD), may precede transitions in psychopathology as well. This study investigated whether CSD may also indicate the direction of future symptom transitions, i.e., whether they involve an increase or decrease in symptoms. METHODS: In study 1, a patient with a history of major depression monitored their mental states ten times a day for almost eight months. Study 2 used data from the TRAILS TRANS-ID study, where 122 young adults at increased risk of psychopathology (mean age 23.64±0.67 years, 56.6% males) monitored their mental states daily for six consecutive months. Symptom transitions were inferred from semi-structured diagnostic interviews. In both studies, CSD direction was estimated using moving-window principal component analyses. RESULTS: In study 1, CSD was directed towards an increase in negative mental states. In study 2, the CSD direction matched the direction of symptom shifts in 34 individuals. The accuracy of the indicator was higher in subsets of individuals with larger absolute symptom transitions. The indicator's accuracy exceeded chance levels in sensitivity analyses (accuracy 22.92% vs. 11.76%, z=-2.04, P=.02) but not in main analyses (accuracy 27.87% vs. 20.63%, z=-1.32, P=.09). CONCLUSIONS: The CSD direction may predict whether upcoming symptom transitions involve remission or worsening. However, this may only hold for specific individuals, namely those with large symptom transitions. Future research is needed to replicate these findings and to delineate for whom CSD reliably forecasts the direction of impending symptom transitions.

Lower emotional complexity as a prospective predictor of psychopathology in adolescents from the general population.

Emotional complexity (EC) involves the ability to distinguish between distinct emotions (differentiation) and the experience of a large range of emotions (diversity). Lower EC has been related to psychopathology in cross-sectional studies. This study aimed to investigate (a) whether EC prospectively predicts psychopathology and (b) whether this effect is contingent on stressful life events. To further explore EC, we compared the effects of differentiation and diversity. Adolescents from the general population (N = 401) rated 8 negatively valenced emotions 10 times a day for 6 consecutive days. Further, they completed the Symptom Checklist-90 (baseline and 1-year follow-up) and a questionnaire on past year's life events at follow-up. Logistic regression analyses tested whether EC-reflected by emotion differentiation (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC]) and diversity (diversity index [DI])-predicted prognosis (good: remitting or lacking symptoms vs. bad: worsening or persisting symptoms). EC predicted prognoses but only when based on the ICC (OREC.ICC = 1.42, p = .02). An ECICC 1 SD above average increased the probability of good prognosis from .67 to .74. This effect was not related to stressful life events (OREC × Life events = 1.03, p = .86) and disappeared when emotion intensity (mean level) was taken into account (OREC = 1.20, p = .20). Predicting future prognosis does not necessitate complex measures of emotional experience (ICC, DI) but rather might be achieved through simpler indices (mean). The discrepant effects of the ICC and DI on prognosis suggest that impaired emotion representation (ICC) plays a more important role in vulnerability to mental ill health than does low diversity of emotions (DI). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

On the transience or stability of subthreshold psychopathology.

Symptoms of psychopathology lie on a continuum ranging from mental health to psychiatric disorders. Although much research has focused on progression along this continuum, for most individuals, subthreshold symptoms do not escalate into full-blown disorders. This study investigated how the stability of psychopathological symptoms (attractor strength) varies across severity levels (homebase). Data were retrieved from the TRAILS TRANS-ID study, where 122 at-risk young adults (mean age 23.6 years old, 57% males) monitored their mental states daily for a period of six months (± 183 observations per participant). We estimated each individual's homebase and attractor strength using generalized additive mixed models. Regression analyses showed no association between homebases and attractor strengths (linear model: B = 0.02, p = 0.47, R2 < 0.01; polynomial model: B < 0.01, p = 0.61, R2 < 0.01). Sensitivity analyses where we (1) weighed estimates according to their uncertainty and (2) removed individuals with a DSM-5 diagnosis from the analyses did not change this finding. This suggests that stability is similar across severity levels, implying that subthreshold psychopathology may resemble a stable state rather than a transient intermediate between mental health and psychiatric disorder. Our study thus provides additional support for a dimensional view on psychopathology, which implies that symptoms differ in degree rather than kind.

Early warning signals in psychopathology: what do they tell?

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing understanding of factors that might underlie psychiatric disorders, prospectively detecting shifts from a healthy towards a symptomatic state has remained unattainable. A complex systems perspective on psychopathology implies that such symptom shifts may be foreseen by generic indicators of instability, or early warning signals (EWS). EWS include, for instance, increasing variability, covariance, and autocorrelation in momentary affective states-of which the latter was studied. The present study investigated if EWS predict (i) future worsening of symptoms as well as (ii) the type of symptoms that will develop, meaning that the association between EWS and future symptom shifts would be most pronounced for congruent affective states and psychopathological domains (e.g., feeling down and depression). METHODS: A registered general population cohort of adolescents (mean age 18 years, 36% male) provided ten daily ratings of their affective states for 6 consecutive days. The resulting time series were used to compute EWS in feeling down, listless, anxious, not relaxed, insecure, suspicious, and unwell. At baseline and 1-year follow-up, symptom severity was assessed by the Symptom Checklist-90 (SCL-90). We selected four subsamples of participants who reported an increase in one of the following SCL-90 domains: depression (N = 180), anxiety (N = 192), interpersonal sensitivity (N = 184), or somatic complaints (N = 166). RESULTS: Multilevel models showed that EWS in feeling suspicious anticipated increases in interpersonal sensitivity, as hypothesized. EWS were absent for other domains. While the association between EWS and symptom increases was restricted to the interpersonal sensitivity domain, post hoc analyses showed that symptom severity at baseline was related to heightened autocorrelations in congruent affective states for interpersonal sensitivity, depression, and anxiety. This pattern replicated in a second, independent dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of EWS prior to symptom shifts may depend on the dynamics of the psychopathological domain under consideration: for depression, EWS may manifest only several weeks prior to a shift, while for interpersonal sensitivity, EWS may already occur 1 year in advance. Intensive longitudinal designs where EWS and symptoms are assessed in real-time are required in order to determine at what timescale and for what type of domain EWS are most informative of future psychopathology.

Measuring psychopathology as it unfolds in daily life: addressing key assumptions of intensive longitudinal methods in the TRAILS TRANS-ID study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive longitudinal (IL) designs provide the potential to study symptoms as they evolve in real-time within individuals. This has promising clinical implications, potentially allowing conclusions at the level of specific individuals. The current study aimed to establish the feasibility of IL designs, as indicated by self-rated burden and attrition, in the context of psychiatry. Additionally, we evaluated three core assumptions about the instruments (diary items) used in IL designs. These assumptions are: diary items (1) reflect experiences that change over time within individuals (indicated by item variability), (2) are interpreted consistently over time, and (3) correspond to retrospective assessments of psychopathology. METHODS: TRAILS TRANS-ID is an add-on IL study in the clinical cohort of the TRAILS study. Daily diaries on psychopathological symptoms for six consecutive months were completed by 134 at risk young adults (age 22.6 ± 0.6 years). At baseline, immediately after the diary period, and one year after the diary period, participants completed a diagnostic interview. RESULTS: Excellent compliance (88.5% of the diaries completed), low participant burden (M = 3.21; SD = 1.42; range 1-10), and low attrition (8.2%) supported the feasibility of six-month IL designs. Diary items differed in their variability over time. Evaluation of the consistency of diary item interpretations showed that within-individual variability in scores could not be attributed to changing interpretations over time. Further, daily symptom reports reasonably correlated with retrospective assessments (over a six month period) of psychopathology obtained with the diagnostic interview, suggesting that both measures might complement each other. CONCLUSION: The current study is the first to show that IL designs over extensive periods (i.e., multiple months) in psychiatry are feasible, and meet three core assumptions to study change in psychopathology. This might allow for addressing novel and promising hypotheses in our field, and might substantially alter how we treat and study mental ill-health.

Can we predict the direction of sudden shifts in symptoms? Transdiagnostic implications from a complex systems perspective on psychopathology.

Recently, there has been renewed interest in the application of assumptions from complex systems theory in the field of psychopathology. One assumption, with high clinical relevance, is that sudden transitions in symptoms may be anticipated by rising instability in the system, which can be detected with early warning signals (EWS). Empirical studies support the idea that this principle also applies to the field of psychopathology. The current manuscript discusses whether assumptions from complex systems theory can additionally be informative with respect to the specific symptom dimension in which such a transition will occur (e.g. whether a transition towards anxious, depressive or manic symptoms is most likely). From a complex systems perspective, both EWS measured in single symptom dynamics and network symptom dynamics at large are hypothesized to provide clues regarding the direction of the transition. Challenging research designs are needed to provide empirical validation of these hypotheses. These designs should be able to follow sudden transitions 'live' using frequent observations of symptoms within individuals and apply a transdiagnostic approach to psychopathology. If the assumptions proposed are supported by empirical studies then this will signify a large improvement in the possibility for personalized estimations of the course of psychiatric symptoms. Such information can be extremely useful for early intervention strategies aimed at preventing specific psychiatric problems.