From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa.

The production of tropical agricultural commodities, such as cocoa (Theobroma cacao) and coffee (Coffea spp.), the countries and communities engaged in it, and the industries dependent on these commodities, are vulnerable to climate change. This is especially so where a large percentage of the global supply is grown in a single geographical region. Fortunately, there is often considerable spatial heterogeneity in the vulnerability to climate change within affected regions, implying that local production losses could be compensated through intensification and expansion of production elsewhere. However, this requires that site-level actions are integrated into a regional approach to climate change adaptation. We discuss here such a regional approach for cocoa in West Africa, where 70 % of global cocoa supply originates. On the basis of a statistical model of relative climatic suitability calibrated on West African cocoa farming areas and average climate projections for the 2030s and 2050s of, respectively, 15 and 19 Global Circulation Models, we divide the region into three adaptation zones: (i) a little affected zone permitting intensification and/or expansion of cocoa farming; (ii) a moderately affected zone requiring diversification and agronomic adjustments of farming practices; and (iii) a severely affected zone with need for progressive crop change. We argue that for tropical agricultural commodities, larger-scale adaptation planning that attempts to balance production trends across countries and regions could help reduce negative impacts of climate change on regional economies and global commodity supplies, despite the institutional challenges that this integration may pose.

Recovery of Forest and Phylogenetic Structure in Abandoned Cocoa Agroforestry in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil.

Cocoa agroforests like the cabrucas of Brazil's Atlantic forest are among the agro-ecosystems with greatest potential for biodiversity conservation. Despite a global trend for their intensification, cocoa agroforests are also being abandoned for socioeconomic reasons especially on marginal sites, because they are incorporated in public or private protected areas, or are part of mandatory set-asides under Brazilian environmental legislation. However, little is known about phylogenetic structure, the processes of forest regeneration after abandonment and the conservation value of former cabruca sites. Here we compare the vegetation structure and composition of a former cabruca 30-40 years after abandonment with a managed cabruca and mature forest in the Atlantic forest region of Espirito Santo, Brazil. The forest in the abandoned cabruca had recovered a substantial part of its original structure. Abandoned cabruca have a higher density (mean ± CI95 %: 525.0 ± 40.3 stems per ha), basal area (34.0 ± 6.5 m2 per ha) and species richness (148 ± 11.5 species) than managed cabruca (96.0 ± 17.7; 24.15 ± 3.9 and 114.5 ± 16.0, respectively) but no significant differences to mature forest in density (581.0 ± 42.2), basal area (29.9.0 ± 3.3) and species richness (162.6 ± 15.5 species). Thinning (understory removal) changes phylogenetic structure from evenness in mature forest to clustering in managed cabruca, but after 30-40 years abandoned cabruca had a random phylogenetic structure, probably due to a balance between biotic and abiotic filters at this age. We conclude that abandoned cocoa agroforests present highly favorable conditions for the regeneration of Atlantic forest and could contribute to the formation of an interconnected network of forest habitat in this biodiversity hotspot.

Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.

Commodity production as restoration driver in the Brazilian Amazon? Pasture re-agro-forestation with cocoa (Theobroma cacao) in southern Pará.

The increasing demand for agricultural commodities is a major cause of tropical deforestation. However, pressure is increasing for greater sustainability of commodity value chains. This includes the demand to establish new crop plantations and pasture areas on already deforested land so that new forest clearing for agriculture is minimized. Where tree crops are planted as part of agroforestry systems on deforested land, this amounts to a form of re-agro-forestation which can generate environmental benefits in addition to crop production. Here, we discuss a case where agroforestry systems based on cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are being established on crop and pasture land in the south of Pará state, Brazilian Amazon. The adoption of cocoa by farmers and ranchers of the region is stimulated by the coincidence of (1) favorable prospects for cocoa on the national and international markets including the expectation of a global cocoa supply gap; (2) environmental policies obliging land owners to reforest excess cleared land with native trees, with agroforests based on the native cocoa tree being an economically attractive option; and (3) biophysical conditions (especially soil fertility) favorable for growing cocoa in part of the region. We show that in the state of Pará at least 1.26 million hectares of naturally high-fertility soils in deforested areas outside legally protected and indigenous lands are potentially suitable for cocoa production with low agrochemical inputs, sufficient to make a significant contribution to closing the predicted supply gap. Their actual suitability depends on their state of degradation after years of pasture use and the availability of technologies and finance to convert them into tree crop agroforests. We discuss the significant environmental benefits of pasture re-agro-forestation with cocoa-based systems, including reduced emissions of up to 135 Mg of carbon per hectare compared to the historically common scenario of planting cocoa after forest clearing. We identify important research questions related to the scaling up of this practice and the maximization of its environmental benefits. We conclude that the coincidence of the afore-mentioned factors could drive a re-agro-forestation frontier in this part of the Amazon, with potential for positive outcomes in terms of commodity production while generating social and environmental benefits.

Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change.

Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.

An agenda for assessing and improving conservation impacts of sustainability standards in tropical agriculture.

Sustainability standards and certification serve to differentiate and provide market recognition to goods produced in accordance with social and environmental good practices, typically including practices to protect biodiversity. Such standards have seen rapid growth, including in tropical agricultural commodities such as cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soybeans, and tea. Given the role of sustainability standards in influencing land use in hotspots of biodiversity, deforestation, and agricultural intensification, much could be gained from efforts to evaluate and increase the conservation payoff of these schemes. To this end, we devised a systematic approach for monitoring and evaluating the conservation impacts of agricultural sustainability standards and for using the resulting evidence to improve the effectiveness of such standards over time. The approach is oriented around a set of hypotheses and corresponding research questions about how sustainability standards are predicted to deliver conservation benefits. These questions are addressed through data from multiple sources, including basic common information from certification audits; field monitoring of environmental outcomes at a sample of certified sites; and rigorous impact assessment research based on experimental or quasi-experimental methods. Integration of these sources can generate time-series data that are comparable across sites and regions and provide detailed portraits of the effects of sustainability standards. To implement this approach, we propose new collaborations between the conservation research community and the sustainability standards community to develop common indicators and monitoring protocols, foster data sharing and synthesis, and link research and practice more effectively. As the role of sustainability standards in tropical land-use governance continues to evolve, robust evidence on the factors contributing to effectiveness can help to ensure that such standards are designed and implemented to maximize benefits for biodiversity conservation.

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

Technical and institutional innovation in agroforestry for protected areas management in the Brazilian Amazon: opportunities and limitations.

Tropical forest countries are struggling with the partially conflicting policy objectives of socioeconomic development, forest conservation, and safeguarding the livelihoods of local forest-dependent people. We worked with communities in the lower Tapajós region of the central Brazilian Amazon for over 10 years to understand their traditional and present land use practices, the constraints, and decision making processes imposed by their biophysical, socioeconomic, and political environment, and to facilitate development trajectories to improve the livelihoods of forest communities while conserving the forest on the farms and in the larger landscape. The work focused on riverine communities initially in the Tapajós National Forest and then in the Tapajós-Arapiuns Extractive Reserve. These communities have a century-old tradition of planting rubber agroforests which despite their abandonment during the 1990s still widely characterize the vegetation of the river banks, especially in the two protected areas where they are safe from the recent expansion of mechanized rice and soybean agriculture. The project evolved from the capacity-building of communities in techniques to increase the productivity of the rubber agroforests without breaking their low-input and low-risk logic, to the establishment of a community enterprise that allowed reserve inhabitants to reforest their own land with tree species of their choice and sell reforestation (not carbon) credits to local timber companies while retaining the ownership of the trees. By making land use practices economically more viable and ecologically more appropriate for protected areas, the project shows ways to strengthen the system of extractive and sustainable development reserves that protects millions of hectares of Amazon forest with the consent of the communities that inhabit them.

Resolving the conflict between ecosystem protection and land use in protected areas of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico.

Livelihoods of people living in many protected areas (PAs) around the world are in conflict with biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, the decrees of creation of biosphere reserves state that rural communities with the right to use buffer zones must avoid deforestation and their land uses must become sustainable, a task which is not easily accomplished. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to analyze the conflict between people's livelihoods and ecosystem protection in the PAs of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), paying special attention to the rates and causes of deforestation and (b) to review policy options to ensure forest and ecosystem conservation in these PAs, including the existing payments for environmental services system and improvements thereof as well as options for sustainable land management. We found that the three largest PAs in the SMC are still largely forested, and deforestation rates have decreased since 2000. Cases of forest conversion are located in specific zones and are related to agrarian and political conflicts as well as growing economic inequality and population numbers. These problems could cause an increase in forest loss in the near future. Payments for environmental services and access to carbon markets are identified as options to ensure forest permanence but still face problems. Challenges for the future are to integrate these incentive mechanisms with sustainable land management and a stronger involvement of land holders in conservation.

Biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services and livelihoods in tropical landscapes: towards a common agenda.

Trade-offs between ecosystem conservation and agricultural production can more easily be addressed by shifting the view from the plot scale to the scale of the landscape and integrating biodiversity friendly land use systems into development strategies. The provision of ecosystem services such as watershed protection and carbon sequestration by natural and complex agro-ecosystems can play an important role in making such integrated landscape approaches viable. This special issue brings together papers that were presented at a symposium on agroforestry and landscape scale conservation at the Second World Agroforestry Congress in Nairobi in August 2009. It is divided into two sections focusing on: (1) the biological mechanisms and implications of landscape scale conservation strategies as influenced by land use, especially agroforestry; and (2) the economic drivers and public policies that determine to a large extent the success of agroforestry-based landscape conservation strategies. The contributions provide evidence both for the potential and limitations of agroforestry in landscape scale conservation and development strategies and highlight the importance of economic incentives and policies to promote integrated landscape solutions. This introductory paper summarizes and discusses the contributions and concludes with policy recommendations and research needs.