Proximal predictors of gun violence among adolescent males involved in crime.

The growing public health and legal concerns regarding gun violence has led to a call for research that investigates risk factors for gun violence across a variety of domains. Individual and sociocontextual risk factors have been associated with violence more broadly, and in some instances gun-carrying, however no prior research has investigated the role of these factors in explaining gun violence using longitudinal data. The current study utilized a subsample (N = 161) from the Pathways to Desistance Study, which is a longitudinal sample of serious adolescent offenders to evaluate interindividual and intraindividual differences in relevant risk factors of gun violence. Results suggest that there are a few key proximal individual-level and sociocontextual predictors for gun violence, including witnessing nongun violence, future orientation, and perceived personal rewards to crime. Findings demonstrate the salience of exposure to violence in contributing to gun violence and identify levers of action for public policy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders.

OBJECTIVES: A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood. METHODS: Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched. RESULTS: We estimate in-sample 7-year recidivism rates in the 75% to 80% range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79% to 89%. CONCLUSIONS: The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.

Victim Offender Overlap: Dual Trajectory Examination of Victimization and Offending among Young Felony Offenders over Seven Years.

The relationship between victimization and offending has been shown consistently across different samples, settings, and crime types. This study uses data from the Pathways to Desistance Study to examine dual trajectories of offending between the ages of 15 and 24 in a sample of male felony offenders. The dual trajectory models demonstrate substantial convergence in victimization and offending. And while there are sizable numbers of youth who continue to be victimized, but desist or decrease in their offending behaviors, very few youth continue to offend in the absence of continued victimization. This study also proposes and tests three criminological theories that have been employed as explanations for the victim-offender overlap - low self-control, lifestyles/routine activities, and street-code attitudes. The logistic regression results indicate that involvement in risky and/or unstructured, unsupervised activities is a key correlate of the victim-offender overlap. The strength of the relationship between routine activity variables and the victim-offender overlap supports the provision of structured, supervised activities for youth and young adults as a way of preventing future victimization and offending, particularly among youth who have high exposure to violence.

Risk and Outcomes: Are Adolescents Charged with Sex Offenses Different from Other Adolescent Offenders?

Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses are subject to specialized treatment and policies based on their assumed unique dangerousness, despite contradictory evidence. Limited information is available regarding risk factors and their relationships to outcomes in this population. The comparative frequency and predictive utility of empirically supported risk factors for general delinquency were examined using data from the Pathways to Desistance study. Adolescent males who committed sexual offenses (n = 127) were compared to adolescent males who committed non-sexual offenses (n = 1021). At the start of the study, the sample ranged in age from 14 to 18 (M = 16.00, SD = 1.12) and self-identified as primarily African American (44 %), Latino (29 %), or White (25 %). Outcomes were measured over 7 years and included general and sexual recidivism, involvement in school and work, and positive relationships with peers and adults. The results indicated a few small differences in the presence of risk factors and their relationship to outcomes, with many similarities. Juveniles who have committed sexual offenses had equivalent general recidivism but higher sexual recidivism, though this rate was low (7.87 %, or 10 of the 127 adolescents who had committed sexual offenses). New clinical and policy approaches may be needed given the similarities between groups.

An examination of change in dynamic risk of offending over time among serious juvenile offenders.

PURPOSE: We examine whether and how much risk/need indicators change over time in a sample of serious adolescent offenders and whether changes in risk are related to self-reported and official record reports of offending in the year following assessment. METHODS: Growth curve and multilevel mixed-effects models are used to examine change through age 18 in a sample of 1,354 serious adolescent offenders participating in the Pathways to Desistance Study. RESULTS: Three primary findings emerge: 1) Compared to the baseline assessment, overall risk/need scores decrease over time. 2) Risk/need does not change in a uniform sequence across domains and time; the form and rate of change differ by domain. 3) Risk/need indicators were related to later offending, with more recent indicators being more powerful for predicting rearrest. CONCLUSIONS: The findings provide empirical support for recent efforts to incorporate routine risk/need assessment into juvenile justice practice. Repeated assessments are likely to identify fluctuations in areas of risk/need that can be used to inform case management and intervention efforts, even for serious offenders.

Prevalence of mental health problems and service use among first-time juvenile offenders.

It is known that youth engaged in the juvenile justice system show high rates of psychiatric disorders. However, little is known about the course of those disorders over time, or about mental health service use on the part of children and families during justice system involvement. Boys and girls recruited from their first contact with juvenile court (n=75), at a mean age of 13.6 years, completed three waves of interviews, each consisting of a structured clinical interview and questionnaires regarding service use, family functioning, parental burden, parental psychopathology. High rates of psychiatric disorders were evident. Three quarters (n = 56) met criteria for a mood, anxiety or behavioral disorder by parent or child report. Despite the high prevalence of mental health concerns, relatively few youth (approximately 20%) were involved in mental health services in follow-up waves. The presence of ODD and higher levels of family communication problems were associated with involvement in mental health services. Although parents experienced burden associated with their child's mental health problems, burden was not a strong correlate of help-seeking. Mental health problems declined from the point of initial involvement with juvenile justice; only ODD symptoms showed stability over time. Low rates of engagement in mental health services are found for juveniles subsequent to their first contact with juvenile justice. ODD and family communication problems most influenced service engagement, while burden due to mental health problems did not. The results provide potential targets for efforts to enhance parental motivation towards service engagement.

Codevelopment of psychopathic features and alcohol use during emerging adulthood: Disaggregating between- and within-person change.

The current study examined whether there is a bidirectional association between changes in alcohol use and psychopathic features during the transition into emerging adulthood. The nature of this association was investigated among a large sample of serious male adolescent offenders (N = 1,170) across 7 annual assessments (ages ∼17-23), with a focus on disaggregating between- and within-person change. Findings indicated that there was significant variability between participants in their rate of change of psychopathic features and alcohol use throughout this period of development. Both, between- and within-person increases in alcohol use tended to parallel increases in psychopathic features during the transition into emerging adulthood. In addition, evidence indicated that during years when adolescents consumed more alcohol than normal, they experienced higher than usual levels of self-reported psychopathic features at the subsequent assessment. The relevance of these findings for public policy and their potential to inform treatments and interventions are discussed.

Probation Intensity, Self-Reported Offending, and Psychopathy in Juveniles on Probation for Serious Offenses.

This study examines the relationship between level of supervision by the juvenile probation officers (JPO) and an adolescent's offending, considering the characteristics of juvenile offenders (specifically, level of psychopathy). Data are taken from the Pathways to Desistance Study on a subset of 859 juvenile offenders. We found that the level of probation officer supervision was not consistently related to the juvenile's risk of recidivism, and level of supervision did not affect self-reported offending. However, risk level is consistently related to offending behavior, more so than the level of supervision and other characteristics of these youths. Level of psychopathy does not moderate the relationship of self-reported offending and level of supervision. These results highlight the need for more integration of risk assessment tools into juvenile probation practices and the possibility of devising methods to focus this practice to make it more effective.

Assessing the nature and mix of offences among serious adolescent offenders.

BACKGROUND: Much of the research on specialisation in offending tends to show that offending careers are marked by more versatile than specific criminal activity. One key limitation of this research has been that very few studies have used both official records and self-reports to study the longitudinal mix of offences. AIMS: This study uses longitudinal data to examine the mixture of offences during mid-adolescence and into early adulthood, a key transitionary period of the life course, using both self-reports and official records. METHOD: Data from 1354 serious adolescent offenders are used to study the mixture of offences over a 7-year period. RESULTS: The results point strongly to the conclusion that generality is typical and specialisation is exceptional.

Structural coherence and temporal stability of psychopathic personality features during emerging adulthood.

Psychopathy is a complex personality disorder characterized by affective, interpersonal, and behavioral dimensions. Although features of psychopathy have been extended downwardly to earlier developmental periods, there is a discerning lack of studies that have focused on critically important issues such as longitudinal invariance and stability/change in these features across time. The current study examines these issues using a large sample of male adolescent offenders (N = 1,170) assessed across 7 annual time points during the transition into emerging adulthood (ages ∼17 to 24 years). Findings demonstrated that features of psychopathy remained longitudinally invariant across this developmental period, and showed temporally consistent and theoretically coherent associations with other measures of personality, psychopathology, and criminal behaviors. Results also demonstrated that mean levels of psychopathic personality features tended to decrease into emerging adulthood and showed relatively modest rank-order stability across assessments with 7-year lags. These findings suggest that reductions in maladaptive personality features seem to parallel the well-documented decreases in offending that occur during the early 20s.

The Challenge and Opportunity of Parental Involvement in Juvenile Justice Services.

The active involvement of parents - whether as recipients, extenders, or managers of services - during their youth's experience with the juvenile justice system is widely assumed to be crucial. Parents and family advocacy groups note persisting concerns with the degree to which successful parental involvement is achieved. Justice system providers are highly motivated and actively working to make improvements. These coalescing interests provide a strong motivation for innovation and improvement regarding family involvement, but the likely success of these efforts is severely limited by the absence of any detailed definition of parental involvement or validated measure of this construct. Determining whether and how parental involvement works in juvenile justice services depends on the development of clear models and sound measurement. Efforts in other child serving systems offer guidance to achieve this goal. A multidimensional working model developed with parents involved in child protective services is presented as a template for developing a model for parental involvement in juvenile justice. Features of the model requiring changes to make it more adaptable to juvenile justice are identified. A systematic research agenda for developing methods and measures to meet the present demands for enhanced parental involvement in juvenile justice services is presented.

An agenda for advancing research on crisis intervention teams for mental health emergencies.

The popularity of crisis intervention teams (CITs) for law enforcement agencies has grown dramatically over the past decade. Law enforcement agencies and advocates for individuals with mental illness view the model as a clear improvement in the way the criminal justice system handles individuals with mental illness. There is, however, only limited empirical support for the perceived effectiveness of CITs. This Open Forum analyzes research needs in this area and offers recommendations. Two major gaps in CIT research are identified: verifying that changes in officers' attitudes and skills translate into behavioral change and determining how criminal justice-mental health partnerships affect officers' behavior. Research addressing these gaps could help set benchmarks of success and identify evidence-based practices for CIT, substantially increasing the empirical base of support for CIT.

Joint consideration of distal and proximal predictors of premature mortality among serious juvenile offenders.

PURPOSE: Juvenile offenders are at heightened risk of death in adolescence and young adulthood compared to adolescents in the general population. The current study extends previous research by testing the joint contributions of distal (historical and demographic characteristics) and proximal (closer to the time of the death) predictors of mortality. We also tested whether proximal variables were potential mediators of the effects of distal variables on mortality. METHODS: Participants were 1,354 serious juvenile offenders, 45 (3.32%) of whom were deceased by the completion of the study. Data were collected through self-reports and official records. RESULTS: Significant distal predictors of mortality were being African-American and having a history of substance use disorder. Proximal predictors that added significantly to prediction included gun carrying, gang membership, and substance use problems. Potential mediators of the effects of substance use disorder history were continuing substance use problems and gang membership. However, proximal variables could not explain the heightened risk for African-Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Gang membership, gun carrying, and substance use problems are risk factors for early mortality among juvenile offenders, but they do not explain the elevated risk for death among African-Americans. Thus, further research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying risk for premature death among African-American adolescent offenders.

A longitudinal examination of serious adolescent offenders' perceptions of chances for success and engagement in behaviors accomplishing goals.

We examined antisocial adolescents' perceptions of the importance of and their ability to accomplish positive life outcomes (e.g., employment) and avoid negative ones (e.g., arrests) during their transition from adolescence to young adulthood. Participants were 1,354 adolescents from the Pathways to Desistance project, a multisite longitudinal study of seriously antisocial adolescents. Participants' perceptions of the importance and likelihood of accomplishing positive adult goals at one age uniquely predicted how often they engaged in behaviors that were consistent with these goals the following year. Our findings suggest that among serious adolescent offenders aspirations to achieve positive goals are related to engaging in behaviors that bring adolescents' current selves more in line with their aspired-to future selves. We discuss the implications of these findings for prevention and intervention efforts.

Some initial findings and policy implications of the Pathways to Desistance Study.

Little is known about how adolescents curtail their offending and make positive adjustments to early adulthood. The Pathways to Desistance study follows 1,354 serious adolescent offenders to provide information about these processes. This paper summarizes some initial findings from the study and lays out their potential policy implications. The findings covered include the variability in the sample, the importance of the link between substance use and offending, and the possible implications of institutional care.

Influence of mental health and substance use problems and criminogenic risk on outcomes in serious juvenile offenders.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relations among certain mental health problems (MHPs; affective, anxiety, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD], and substance use disorders), criminogenic risk, and outcomes in a sample of serious adolescent offenders. METHOD: Using data from a longitudinal study of serious adolescent offenders (N = 949; mean age = 16 years, SD = 1.10 years; 84% male; 78% minority), we evaluated the association of MHPs with three distinct outcomes (rearrest, self-reported antisocial activity, and gainful activity), tested whether having an MHP contributed any unique explanatory power regarding these outcomes over and above criminogenic risk markers, and examined whether MHPs moderated the relationship between risk markers and outcomes. Negative binomial and ordinal regressions were used. Data for the study were derived primarily from youth self-report over a 7-year period, with parent collaterals reporting on ADHD, and official records as the source for rearrest information. RESULTS: Of the sample, 57.5% met the criteria for at least one of the assessed MPHs. The presence of a substance use disorder showed consistent associations with the outcomes. After controlling for risk markers and demographic characteristics, MHPs were not associated with most outcomes. The co-occurrence of a substance use disorder and an MHP moderated the relations between several risk markers and outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Current juvenile justice policies that focus treatment efforts on both criminogenic and mental health factors (with particular emphasis on treating substance use disorders) appear to be well founded. It is unlikely that focusing solely on treating MHPs in serious offenders will have a distinct impact on later outcomes.

Predicting outcomes for youth transferred to adult court.

Extant research regarding juvenile transfer has focused primarily on the negative effects of current policies, with little consistent and rigorous work on the variation among the adolescents transferred to adult court and their later adjustment in the community. Using a sample of 193 transferred youth from Arizona, we consider how certain individual characteristics are related to four post-release outcomes (antisocial activity, re-arrest, re-institutionalization, and gainful activity). We find considerable variability in outcomes, with adjustment significantly and consistently related to certain legal and risk-need factors. These results indicate that some transferred youth may experience negative outcomes, and that refinements to transfer policy may benefit from consideration of these factors in determining which serious adolescent offenders are most appropriate for transfer.

Differential effects of adult court transfer on juvenile offender recidivism.

Prior research indicates that adolescent offenders transferred to adult court are more likely to recidivate than those retained in the juvenile system. The studies supporting this conclusion, however, are limited in addressing the issue of heterogeneity among transferred adolescents. This study estimates the effect of transfer on later crime using a sample of 654 serious juvenile offenders, 29% of whom were transferred. We use propensity score matching to reduce potential selection bias, and we partition the sample on legal characteristics to examine subgroup effects. We find an overall null effect of transfer on re-arrest, but evidence of differential effects of transfer for adolescents with different offending histories. These results suggest that evaluating the effects of transfer for all transferred adolescents together may lead to misguided policy conclusions.

ESTIMATING A DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LENGTH OF STAY AND FUTURE RECIDIVISM IN SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS.

The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a dose-response relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self-reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self-reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined.

Service use after court involvement in a sample of serious adolescent offenders.

The juvenile justice system faces a difficult challenge when providing services to serious adolescent offenders, having to balance community safety concerns with hopes for successful intervention. Increasing the effectiveness of this system rests partially on having a clearer picture of the regularities of current service provision to these adolescents. This study describes the types of services received by a large (N=868) sample of adjudicated serious offenders from two metropolitan areas over a two-year follow-up period after adjudication in court, and examines whether indicators of need for services determine the types of services received in the juvenile justice system. Findings indicate that: 1) the level of specialized services received is rather low, 2) there is considerable site variability, 3) the service needs of adolescents sent to different types of settings appear to be generally equivalent, 4) state training schools appear to provide about the same level of services found in contracted provider settings, and 5) need is an inconsistent determinant of service provision.