Temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths from 2007 to 2020 in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

Dengue, a disease with multifactorial determinants, is linked to population susceptibility to circulating viruses and the extent of vector infestation. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends of dengue cases and deaths in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 2007 to 2020. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan) were utilized for the investigation. To assess the disease's progression over the study period and predict its future incidence, time series analyses were conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Over the study period, a total of 463,566 dengue cases and 125 deaths were reported. Notably, there was an increase in severe cases and deaths, marking hyperendemics characterized by simultaneous virus circulation (79.17% in 2016-50% in 2019). The generalized additive model revealed a non-linear pattern with epidemic peaks in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2019, indicating an explosive pattern of dengue incidence. The SARIMA (3,1,1) (0,0,0)12 model was validated for each year (2015 to 2019). Comparing the actual and predicted numbers of dengue cases, the model demonstrated its effectiveness for predicting cases in the municipality. The rising number of dengue cases emphasizes the importance of vector surveillance and control. Enhanced models and predictions by local health services will aid in anticipating necessary control measures to combat future epidemics.

Testing Frequency Matters: An Evaluation of the Diagnostic Performance of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Rapid Antigen Test in US Correctional Facilities.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends serial rapid antigen assay collection within congregate facilities. Although modeling and observational studies from communities and long-term care facilities have shown serial collection provides adequate sensitivity and specificity, the accuracy within correctional facilities remains unknown. METHODS: Using Connecticut Department of Correction data from 21 November 2020 to 15 June 2021, we estimated the accuracy of a rapid assay, BinaxNOW (Abbott), under 3 collection strategies: single test collection and serial collection of 2 and 3 tests separated by 1-4 days. The sensitivity and specificity of the first (including single), second, and third serially collected BinaxNOW tests were estimated relative to RT-PCRs collected ≤1 day of the BinaxNOW test. The accuracy metrics of the testing strategies were then estimated as the sum (sensitivity) and product (specificity) of tests in each strategy. RESULTS: Of the 13 112 residents who contributed ≥1 BinaxNOW test during the study period, 3825 contributed ≥1 RT-PCR paired BinaxNOW test. In relation to RT-PCR, the 3-rapid-antigen-test strategy had a sensitivity of 95.9% (95% CI: 93.6-97.5%) and specificity of 98.3% (95% CI: 96.7-99.1%). The sensitivities of the 2- and 1-rapid-antigen-test strategies were 88.8% and 66.8%, and the specificities were 98.5% and 99.4%, respectively. The sensitivity was higher among symptomatic residents and when RT-PCRs were collected before BinaxNOW tests. CONCLUSIONS: We found serial antigen test collection resulted in high diagnostic accuracy. These findings support serial collection for outbreak investigation, screening, and when rapid detection is required (such as intakes or transfers).

Longitudinal borehole functionality in 15 rural Ghanaian towns from three groundwater quality clusters.

OBJECTIVE: In sub-Saharan Africa, 45% of the rural population uses boreholes (BHs). Despite recent gains in improved water access and coverage, parallel use of unimproved sources persists. Periodic infrastructure disrepair contributes to non-exclusive use of BHs. Our study describes functionality of BHs in 2014, 2015, and 2016 in 15 rural towns in the Eastern Region of Ghana sourced from three groundwater quality clusters (high iron, high salinity, and control). We also assess factors affecting cross-sectional and longitudinal functionality using logistic regression. RESULTS: BH functionality rates ranged between 81 and 87% and were similar across groundwater quality clusters. Of 51 BHs assessed in all three years, 34 (67%) were consistently functional and only 3 (6%) were consistently broken. There was a shift toward proactive payment for water over the course of the study in the control and high-salinity clusters. Payment mechanism, population served, presence of nearby alternative water sources, and groundwater quality cluster were not significant predictors of cross-sectional or longitudinal BH functionality. However, even in the high iron cluster, where water quality is poor and no structured payment mechanism for water exists, BHs are maintained, showing that they are important community resources.

COVID-19 Testing and Case Rates and Social Contact Among Residential College Students in Connecticut During the 2020-2021 Academic Year.

Importance: During the 2020-2021 academic year, many institutions of higher education reopened to residential students while pursuing strategies to mitigate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on campus. Reopening guidance emphasized polymerase chain reaction or antigen testing for residential students and social distancing measures to reduce the frequency of close interpersonal contact, and Connecticut colleges and universities used a variety of approaches to reopen campuses to residential students. Objective: To characterize institutional reopening strategies and COVID-19 outcomes in 18 residential college and university campuses across Connecticut. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used data on COVID-19 testing and cases and social contact from 18 college and university campuses in Connecticut that had residential students during the 2020-2021 academic year. Exposures: Tests for COVID-19 performed per week per residential student. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases per week per residential student and mean (95% CI) social contact per week per residential student. Results: Between 235 and 4603 residential students attended the fall semester across each of 18 institutions of higher education in Connecticut, with fewer residential students at most institutions during the spring semester. In census block groups containing residence halls, the fall student move-in resulted in a 475% (95% CI, 373%-606%) increase in mean contact, and the spring move-in resulted in a 561% (95% CI, 441%-713%) increase in mean contact compared with the 7 weeks prior to move-in. The association between test frequency and case rate per residential student was complex; institutions that tested students infrequently detected few cases but failed to blunt transmission, whereas institutions that tested students more frequently detected more cases and prevented further spread. In fall 2020, each additional test per student per week was associated with a decrease of 0.0014 cases per student per week (95% CI, -0.0028 to -0.00001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that, in the era of available vaccinations and highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants, colleges and universities should continue to test residential students and use mitigation strategies to control on-campus COVID-19 cases.

Disentangling associations between vegetation greenness and dengue in a Latin American city: Findings and challenges.

Being a Re-Emerging Infectious Disease, dengue causes 390 million cases globally and is prevalent in many urban areas in South America. Understanding the fine-scale relationships between dengue incidence and environmental and socioeconomic factors can guide improved disease prevention strategies. This ecological study examines the association between dengue incidence and satellite-based vegetation greenness in 3826 census tracts nested in 474 neighborhoods in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during the 2010 dengue epidemic. To reduce potential bias in the estimated dengue-greenness association, we adjusted for socioeconomic vulnerability, population density, building height and density, land cover composition, elevation, weather patterns, and neighborhood random effects. We found that vegetation greenness was negatively associated with dengue incidence in a univariate model, and this association attenuated after controlling for additional covariates. The dengue-greenness association was modified by socioeconomic vulnerability: while a positive association was observed in the least vulnerable census tracts, the association was negative in the most vulnerable areas. Using greenness as a proxy for vegetation quality, our results show the potential of vegetation management in reducing dengue incidence, particularly in socioeconomically vulnerable areas. We also discuss the role of water infrastructure, sanitation services, and tree cover in lowering dengue risk.

Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city.

This ecological study analyzed the temporal pattern of clinically diagnosed and laboratory confirmed dengue cases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil from 1996 to 2017. The study was divided into two analytical parts, the first of which evaluated the association between dengue incidence and host and climatic factors. The second part encompassed data from 2002 to 2017 and examined dengue incidence in relation to virus serotype and an intra-urban socioeconomic index. Over 22 years there were 469,171 cases and four epidemic peaks. There was an increase in the number, severity, and lethality of cases over the last 10 years of the study period. Biological and environmental factors appear to modulate the behavior of dengue in a large urban center.

Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: Understanding the intra-urban spatial dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission is important to effectively guide vector control. Ovitraps are a sensitive, cost-effective vector surveillance tool, yet few longitudinal studies have evaluated ovitrap indices and dengue occurrence. We aimed to assess the spatial patterns of dengue incidence and Ae. aegypti ovitrap positivity index (OPI) over time and to examine the spatial relationship between these two variables. METHODS: This study used 12 years (2007-2018) of dengue case records and biweekly Ae. aegypti ovitrap data in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We aggregated data by year and health centre catchment area (n = 152) and used both univariate and bivariate global Moran's I statistic and LISA to evaluate spatial clustering. RESULTS: Annual dengue incidence ranged from 18 to 6262/100 000 residents and displayed spatial autocorrelation in 10/12 years, with shifting areas of high incidence. Annual OPI ranged from 35.7 to 47.6% and was clustered in all study years, but unlike dengue had consistent spatial patterns over time. Bivariate analysis found both positive (6/12 years) and negative (1/12 years) spatial associations between the two variables. CONCLUSIONS: Low detected presence of Ae. aegypti was not a limiting factor in dengue transmission. However, stable spatial distribution of OPI suggests that certain areas may have persistent breeding sites. Future research should identify factors related to persistent Ae. aegypti hotspots to better guide vector management. Vector control efforts should be paired with additional data on population immunity, circulating serotypes and urban factors to better predict and control outbreaks.

OBJECTIFS: La compréhension de la dynamique spatiale intra-urbaine d'Aedes aegypti et de la transmission de la dengue est importante pour guider efficacement la lutte antivectorielle. Les ovitraps sont un outil de surveillance des vecteurs sensible et rentable, mais peu d'études longitudinales ont évalué les indices d'ovitrap et l'occurrence de la dengue. Nous visions à évaluer les modèles spatiaux de l'incidence de la dengue et de l'indice de positivité d'ovitrap (OPI) d'Ae. aegypti au fil du temps, et à examiner la relation spatiale entre ces deux variables. MÉTHODES: Cette étude a utilisé des dossiers de cas de dengue et des données bihebdomadaires d'ovitrap Ae. aegypti sur 12 ans (2007-2018) à Belo Horizonte, au Brésil. Nous avons agrégé les données par année et par zone d'étude du centre de santé (n = 152) et avons utilisé à la fois la statistique I globale de Moran univariée et bivariée et LISA pour évaluer le regroupement spatial. RÉSULTATS: L'incidence annuelle de la dengue variait de 18 à 6.262/100.000 habitants et affichait une autocorrélation spatiale en 10/12 ans, avec des zones de déplacement de forte incidence. L'OPI annuel variait de 35,7 à 47,6% et était groupé dans toutes les années d'étude, mais contrairement à la dengue, il avait des modèles spatiaux consistents au fil du temps. Une analyse bivariée a trouvé des associations spatiales positives (6/12 ans) et négatives (1/12 ans) entre les deux variables. CONCLUSIONS: La détection d'une faible présence d'Ae. aegypti n'était pas un facteur limitant de la transmission de la dengue. Cependant, la distribution spatiale stable de l'OPI suggère que certaines zones peuvent avoir des sites de reproduction persistants. Les recherches futures devraient identifier les facteurs liés à des hotspots persistants d'Ae. aegypti pour mieux guider la gestion des vecteurs. Les efforts de lutte antivectorielle devraient être associés à des données supplémentaires sur l'immunité de la population, les sérotypes circulants et les facteurs urbains pour mieux prévoir et contrôler les flambées.

Rural Ghanaian households are more likely to use alternative unimproved water sources when water from boreholes has undesirable organoleptic characteristics.

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6 aims to achieve universal access to safe drinking water sources. However, the health benefits of meeting this goal will only be fully realized if improved sources are used to the exclusion of unimproved sources. Very little is known about how rural African households balance the use of improved and unimproved water sources when multiple options are present. We assessed parallel use of untreated surface water and unimproved hand-dug wells (HDWs) in the presence of boreholes (BHs) using a semi-quantitative water use survey among 750 residents of 15 rural Ghanaian communities, distributed across three BH water quality clusters: control, high salinity, and high iron. Multivariate mixed effects logistic regression models were used to assess the impact of water quality cluster on the use of BHs, HDWs, and surface water, controlling for distance to the nearest source of each type. Reported surface water use was significantly higher in the high salinity and high iron clusters than in the control cluster, especially for water-intensive activities. Respondents in the non-control clusters had approximately eight times higher odds of clothes washing with surface water (p < 0.01) than in the control. Respondents in the high salinity cluster also had 4.3 times higher odds of drinking surface water (p < 0.05). BH use was high in all clusters, but decreased substantially when distance to the nearest BH exceeded 300 m (OR = 0.17-0.25, p < 0.001). Water use from all sources was inversely correlated with distance, with the largest effect observed on HDW use in multivariate models (OR = 0.02, p < 0.001). Surface water and HDW use will likely continue despite the presence of BHs when perceived groundwater quality is poor and other water sources are in close proximity. It is essential to account for naturally-occurring but undesirable groundwater quality parameters in rural water planning to ensure that SDG 6 is met and health benefits are realized.