Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina).

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

A Pleistocene legacy structures variation in modern seagrass ecosystems.

Distribution of Earth's biomes is structured by the match between climate and plant traits, which in turn shape associated communities and ecosystem processes and services. However, that climate-trait match can be disrupted by historical events, with lasting ecosystem impacts. As Earth's environment changes faster than at any time in human history, critical questions are whether and how organismal traits and ecosystems can adjust to altered conditions. We quantified the relative importance of current environmental forcing versus evolutionary history in shaping the growth form (stature and biomass) and associated community of eelgrass (Zostera marina), a widespread foundation plant of marine ecosystems along Northern Hemisphere coastlines, which experienced major shifts in distribution and genetic composition during the Pleistocene. We found that eelgrass stature and biomass retain a legacy of the Pleistocene colonization of the Atlantic from the ancestral Pacific range and of more recent within-basin bottlenecks and genetic differentiation. This evolutionary legacy in turn influences the biomass of associated algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs, with effects comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing. Such historical lags in phenotypic acclimatization may constrain ecosystem adjustments to rapid anthropogenic climate change, thus altering predictions about the future functioning of ecosystems.

Error, Power, and Blind Sentinels: The Statistics of Seagrass Monitoring.

We derive statistical properties of standard methods for monitoring of habitat cover worldwide, and criticize them in the context of mandated seagrass monitoring programs, as exemplified by Posidonia oceanica in the Mediterranean Sea. We report the novel result that cartographic methods with non-trivial classification errors are generally incapable of reliably detecting habitat cover losses less than about 30 to 50%, and the field labor required to increase their precision can be orders of magnitude higher than that required to estimate habitat loss directly in a field campaign. We derive a universal utility threshold of classification error in habitat maps that represents the minimum habitat map accuracy above which direct methods are superior. Widespread government reliance on blind-sentinel methods for monitoring seafloor can obscure the gradual and currently ongoing losses of benthic resources until the time has long passed for meaningful management intervention. We find two classes of methods with very high statistical power for detecting small habitat cover losses: 1) fixed-plot direct methods, which are over 100 times as efficient as direct random-plot methods in a variable habitat mosaic; and 2) remote methods with very low classification error such as geospatial underwater videography, which is an emerging, low-cost, non-destructive method for documenting small changes at millimeter visual resolution. General adoption of these methods and their further development will require a fundamental cultural change in conservation and management bodies towards the recognition and promotion of requirements of minimal statistical power and precision in the development of international goals for monitoring these valuable resources and the ecological services they provide.

Mutation accumulation in real branches: fitness assays for genomic deleterious mutation rate and effect in large-statured plants.

The genomic deleterious mutation rate and mean effect are central to the biology and evolution of all species. Large-statured plants, such as trees, are predicted to have high mutation rates due to mitotic mutation and the absence of a sheltered germ line, but their size and generation time has hindered genetic study. We develop and test approaches for estimating deleterious mutation rates and effects from viability comparisons within the canopy of large-statured plants. Our methods, inspired by E. J. Klekowski, are a modification of the classic Bateman-Mukai mutation-accumulation experiment. Within a canopy, cell lineages accumulate mitotic mutations independently. Gametes or zygotes produced at more distal points by these cell lineages contain more mitotic mutations than those at basal locations, and within-flower selfs contain more homozygous mutations than between-flower selfs. The resulting viability differences allow demonstration of lethal mutation with experiments similar in size to assays of genetic load and allow estimates of the rate and effect of new mutations with moderate precision and bias similar to that of classic mutation-accumulation experiments in small-statured organisms. These methods open up new possibilities with the potential to provide valuable new insights into the evolutionary genetics of plants.

Mitosis, stature and evolution of plant mating systems: low-Phi and high-Phi plants.

There is a long-recognized association in plants between small stature and selfing, and large stature and outcrossing. Inbreeding depression is central to several hypotheses for this association, but differences in the evolutionary dynamics of inbreeding depression associated with differences in stature are rarely considered. Here, we propose and test the Phi model of plant mating system evolution, which assumes that the per-generation mutation rate of a plant is a function of the number of mitoses (Phi) that occur from zygote to gamete, and predicts fundamental differences between low-Phi (small-statured) and high-Phi (large-statured) plants in the outcomes of the joint evolution of outcrossing rate and inbreeding depression. Using a large dataset of published population genetic studies of angiosperms and conifers, we compute fitted values of inbreeding depression and deleterious mutation rates for small- and large-statured plants. Consistent with our Phi model, we find that populations of small-statured plants exhibit a range of mating systems, significantly lower mutation rates, and intermediate inbreeding depression, while large-statured plants exhibit very high mutation rates and the maximum inbreeding depression of unity. These results indicate that (i) inbred progeny typically observed in large-statured plant populations are completely lost prior to maturity in nearly all populations; (ii) evolutionary shifts from outcrossing to selfing are generally not possible in large-statured species, rather, large-statured species are more likely to evolve mating systems that avoid selfing such as self-incompatibility and dioecy; (iii) destabilization of the mating system-high selfing rate with high-inbreeding depression-might be a common occurrence in large-statured species; and (iv) large-statured species in fragmented populations might be at higher risk of extinction than previously thought. Our results help to unify and simplify a large and diverse field of research, and serve to emphasize the importance that developmental and genetic constraints play in the evolution of plant mating systems.

Evolutionary stability of mutualism: interspecific population regulation as an evolutionarily stable strategy.

Interspecific mutualisms are often vulnerable to instability because low benefit : cost ratios can rapidly lead to extinction or to the conversion of mutualism to parasite-host or predator-prey interactions. We hypothesize that the evolutionary stability of mutualism can depend on how benefits and costs to one mutualist vary with the population density of its partner, and that stability can be maintained if a mutualist can influence demographic rates and regulate the population density of its partner. We test this hypothesis in a model of mutualism with key features of senita cactus (Pachycereus schottii)-senita moth (Upiga virescens) interactions, in which benefits of pollination and costs of larval seed consumption to plant fitness depend on pollinator density. We show that plants can maximize their fitness by allocating resources to the production of excess flowers at the expense of fruit. Fruit abortion resulting from excess flower production reduces pre-adult survival of the pollinating seed-consumer, and maintains its density beneath a threshold that would destabilize the mutualism. Such a strategy of excess flower production and fruit abortion is convergent and evolutionarily stable against invasion by cheater plants that produce few flowers and abort few to no fruit. This novel mechanism of achieving evolutionarily stable mutualism, namely interspecific population regulation, is qualitatively different from other mechanisms invoking partner choice or selective rewards, and may be a general process that helps to preserve mutualistic interactions in nature.

Partial male sterility and the evolution of nuclear gynodioecy in plants.

Gynodioecy, a genetic dimorphism of females and hermaphrodites, is pertinent to an understanding of the evolution of plant gender, mating and genetic variability. Classical models of nuclear gynodioecy attribute the maintenance of the dimorphism to frequency-dependent selection in which the female phenotype has a fitness advantage at low frequency owing to a doubled ovule fertility. Here, I analyse explicit genetic models of nuclear gynodioecy that expand on previous work by allowing partial male sterility in combination with either fixed or dynamically evolving mutational inbreeding depression. These models demonstrate that partial male sterility causes fitness underdominance at the mating locus, which can prevent the spread of females. However, if partial male sterility is compensated by a change in selfing rate, overdominance at the mating locus can cause the spread of females. Overdominance at introduction of the male sterility allele can be caused by high inbreeding depression and a lower selfing rate in the heterozygote, by purging of mutations by a higher selfing rate in the heterozygote, and by low inbreeding depression and a higher selfing rate in the heterozygote. These processes might be of general importance in the maintenance of mating polymorphisms in plants.

MUTATION AND EXTINCTION: THE ROLE OF VARIABLE MUTATIONAL EFFECTS, SYNERGISTIC EPISTASIS, BENEFICIAL MUTATIONS, AND DEGREE OF OUTCROSSING.

Recent theoretical studies have illustrated the potential role of spontaneous deleterious mutation as a cause of extinction in small populations. However, these studies have not addressed several genetic issues, which can in principle have a substantial influence on the risk of extinction. These include the presence of synergistic epistasis, which can reduce the rate of mutation accumulation by progressively magnifying the selective effects of mutations, and the occurrence of beneficial mutations, which can offset the effects of previous deleterious mutations. In stochastic simulations of small populations (effective sizes on the order of 100 or less), we show that both synergistic epistasis and the rate of beneficial mutation must be unrealistically high to substantially reduce the risk of extinction due to random fixation of deleterious mutations. However, in analytical calculations based on diffusion theory, we show that in large, outcrossing populations (effective sizes greater than a few hundred), very low levels of beneficial mutation are sufficient to prevent mutational decay. Further simulation results indicate that in populations small enough to be highly vulnerable to mutational decay, variance in deleterious mutational effects reduces the risk of extinction, assuming that the mean deleterious mutational effect is on the order of a few percent or less. We also examine the magnitude of outcrossing that is necessary to liberate a predominantly selfing population from the threat of long-term mutational deterioration. The critical amount of outcrossing appears to be greater than is common in near-obligately selfing plant species, supporting the contention that such species are generally doomed to extinction via random drift of new mutations. Our results support the hypothesis that a long-term effective population size in the neighborhood of a few hundred individuals defines an approximate threshold, below which outcrossing populations are vulnerable to extinction via fixation of deleterious mutations, and above which immunity is acquired.

EVOLUTION OF UNISEXUALITY IN THE HAWAIIAN FLORA: A TEST OF MICROEVOLUTIONARY THEORY.

The evolution of separate sexes as a means of avoiding self-fertilization requires the controversial coexistence of large inbreeding depression and high selfing rate in the ancestral hermaphrodite population. Fitness components of adult females and hermaphrodites in nature, of their open-pollinated progeny, and of experimental selfs and outcrosses onto hermaphrodites were compared in endemic Hawaiian Bidens sandvicensis, all of whose known populations are gynodioecious, consisting of a mixture of females and hermaphrodites. Multilocus selfing rates of hermaphrodites were also estimated, and sex morph ratio monitored over four seasons in three populations of B. sandvicensis and one population of gynodioecious B. cervicata. Total mean inbreeding depression in seed set (in the glasshouse), germination rate (in an open-air nursery on Kauai), and first year survivorship and fecundity in the field were estimated as 0.94 (SE 0.04), and occurred primarily in drought months. Lower survivorship and fecundity of selfs were partially explained by their consistently smaller size. Open-pollinated seed of females had significantly lower germination rate, proportion flowering, and fecundity than outcrossed progeny of hermaphrodites, suggesting moderate biparental inbreeding in females and a lack of any non-outcrossing advantage to progeny of females. In all fitness components, open-pollinated progeny of hermaphrodites were inferior to those of females and to outcrosses, and in most components were superior to selfs. Total performance of open-pollinated progeny of females relative to those of hermaphrodites was calculated as 2.3 (SE = 0.4), but since inflorescences of females also set 20% to 50% more seed than those of hermaphrodites, their total relative ovule success was estimated as 3.2 (SE = 0.5). If inheritance of male sterility is nuclear, this superiority is sufficient to maintain females in frequencies over 20% in populations, whose actual frequencies ranged from 14% to 33%. In four populations, selfing rates of hermaphrodites, assayed in seedlings, were 0.50, 0.45, 0.25, and 0.30, but since substantial inbreeding depression occurred prior to germination, the mean selfing rate of hermaphrodite ovules exceeded 0.57. Female frequencies were significantly higher in the two populations with higher hermaphrodite selfing rate. These results suggest that inbreeding depression can exert a profound influence on the mating system of self-compatible plants on Hawaii and perhaps other oceanic islands, and can be sufficiently strong to electively favor the elimination of the male function.

HIGH INBREEDING DEPRESSION, SELECTIVE INTERFERENCE AMONG LOCI, AND THE THRESHOLD SELFING RATE FOR PURGING RECESSIVE LETHAL MUTATIONS.

The evolutionary dynamics of recessive or slightly dominant lethal mutations in partially self-fertilizing plants are analyzed using two models. In the identity-equilibrium model, lethals occur at a finite number of unlinked loci among which genotype frequencies are independent in mature plants. In the Kondrashov model, lethals occur at an infinite number of unlinked loci with identity disequilibrium produced by partial selfing. If the genomic mutation rate to (nearly) recessive lethal alleles is sufficiently high, such that the mean number of lethals (or lethal equivalents) per mature plant maintained at equilibrium under complete outcrossing exceeds 10, selective interference among loci creates a sharp discontinuity in the mean number of lethals maintained as a function of the selfing rate. Virtually no purging of the lethals occurs unless the selfing rate closely approaches or exceeds a threshold selfing rate, at which there is a precipitous drop in the mean number of lethals maintained. Identity disequilibrium lowers the threshold selfing rate by increasing the ratio of variance to mean number of lethals per plant, increasing the opportunity for selection. This theory helps to explain observations on plant species that display very high inbreeding depression despite intermediate selfing rates.

NUCLEO-CYTOPLASMIC MALE STERILITY AND ALTERNATIVE ROUTES TO DIOECY.

Population-genetic models of nucleo-cytoplasmic gynodioecy are shown to allow invasion of males and conversion to dioecy in a single cytotype. Pleiotropic effects of restorer alleles on fertility through male or female function can maintain a cytoplasmic polymorphism in a population that prevents evolution to dioecy regardless of the pollen fertility of males. However, a cytoplasmic polymorphism has little effect on, and may even reduce, the minimum pollen fertility required for the spread of males into an equilibrium gynodioecious population. Where the thresholds for dioecy are similar, the presence of males during a transient preequilibrium high frequency of females can accelerate evolution to dioecy by more than 50 times relative to nuclear male sterility. However, the appearance of a nonrestorable male-sterile cytotype generally eliminates males from both subdioecious and dioecious populations, converting them to purely cytoplasmic gynodioecy. These models contradict the previously suggested notion that nucleo-cytoplasmic gynodioecy represents a "stable" intermediate breeding system and instead show that such gynodioecy can generally evolve to subdioecy, and often to dioecy, as easily as nuclear gynodioecy.