Excess methane emissions from shallow water platforms elevate the carbon intensity of US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production.

The Gulf of Mexico is the largest offshore fossil fuel production basin in the United States. Decisions on expanding production in the region legally depend on assessments of the climate impact of new growth. Here, we collect airborne observations and combine them with previous surveys and inventories to estimate the climate impact of current field operations. We evaluate all major on-site greenhouse gas emissions, carbon dioxide (CO2) from combustion, and methane from losses and venting. Using these findings, we estimate the climate impact per unit of energy of produced oil and gas (the carbon intensity). We find high methane emissions (0.60 Tg/y [0.41 to 0.81, 95% confidence interval]) exceeding inventories. This elevates the average CI of the basin to 5.3 g CO2e/MJ [4.1 to 6.7] (100-y horizon) over twice the inventories. The CI across the Gulf varies, with deep water production exhibiting a low CI dominated by combustion emissions (1.1 g CO2e/MJ), while shallow federal and state waters exhibit an extraordinarily high CI (16 and 43 g CO2e/MJ) primarily driven by methane emissions from central hub facilities (intermediaries for gathering and processing). This shows that production in shallow waters, as currently operated, has outsized climate impact. To mitigate these climate impacts, methane emissions in shallow waters must be addressed through efficient flaring instead of venting and repair, refurbishment, or abandonment of poorly maintained infrastructure. We demonstrate an approach to evaluate the CI of fossil fuel production using observations, considering all direct production emissions while allocating to all fossil products.

Inefficient and unlit natural gas flares both emit large quantities of methane.

Flaring is widely used by the fossil fuel industry to dispose of natural gas. Industry and governments generally assume that flares remain lit and destroy methane, the predominant component of natural gas, with 98% efficiency. Neither assumption, however, is based on real-world observations. We calculate flare efficiency using airborne sampling across three basins responsible for >80% of US flaring and combine these observations with unlit flare prevalence surveys. We find that both unlit flares and inefficient combustion contribute comparably to ineffective methane destruction, with flares effectively destroying only 91.1% (90.2, 91.8; 95% confidence interval) of methane. This represents a fivefold increase in methane emissions above present assumptions and constitutes 4 to 10% of total US oil and gas methane emissions, highlighting a previously underappreciated methane source and mitigation opportunity.

Coal seam gas industry methane emissions in the Surat Basin, Australia: comparing airborne measurements with inventories.

Coal seam gas (CSG) accounts for about one-quarter of natural gas production in Australia and rapidly increasing amounts globally. This is the first study worldwide using airborne measurement techniques to quantify methane (CH4) emissions from a producing CSG field: the Surat Basin, Queensland, Australia. Spatially resolved CH4 emissions were quantified from all major sources based on top-down (TD) and bottom-up (BU) approaches, the latter using Australia's UNFCCC reporting workflow. Based on our TD-validated BU inventory, CSG sources emit about 0.4% of the produced gas, comparable to onshore dry gas fields in the USA and The Netherlands, but substantially smaller than in other onshore regions, especially those where oil is co-produced (wet gas). The CSG CH4 emission per unit of gas production determined in this study is two to three times higher than existing inventories for the region. Our results indicate that the BU emission factors for feedlots and grazing cattle need review, possibly requiring an increase for Queensland's conditions. In some subregions, the BU estimate for gathering and boosting stations is potentially too high. The results from our iterative BU inventory process, which feeds into TD data, illustrate how global characterization of CH4 emissions could be improved by incorporating empirical TD verification surveys into national reporting. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'.

Using global isotopic data to constrain the role of shale gas production in recent increases in atmospheric methane.

The accelerated increase in global methane (CH4) in the atmosphere, accompanied by a decrease in its 13C/12C isotopic ratio (δ13CCH4) from -47.1‰ to -47.3‰ observed since 2008, has been attributed to increased emissions from wetlands and cattle, as well as from shale gas and shale oil developments. To date both explanations have relied on poorly constrained δ13CCH4 source signatures. We use a dataset of δ13CCH4 from >1600 produced shale gas samples from regions that account for >97% of global shale gas production to constrain the contribution of shale gas emissions to observed atmospheric increases in the global methane burden. We find that US shale gas extracted since 2008 has volume-weighted-average δ13CCH4 of -39.6‰. The average δ13CCH4 weighted by US basin-level measured emissions in 2015 was -41.8‰. Therefore, emission increases from shale gas would contribute to an opposite atmospheric δ13CCH4 signal in the observed decrease since 2008 (while noting that the global isotopic trend is the net of all dynamic source and sink processes). This observation strongly suggests that changing emissions of other (isotopically-lighter) CH4 source terms is dominating the increase in global CH4 emissions. Although production of shale gas has increased rapidly since 2008, and CH4 emissions associated with this increased production are expected to have increased overall in that timeframe, the simultaneously-observed increase in global atmospheric CH4 is not dominated by emissions from shale gas and shale oil developments.

Characterizing Regional Methane Emissions from Natural Gas Liquid Unloading.

A "bottom-up" probabilistic model was developed using engineering first-principles to quantify annualized throughput normalized methane emissions (TNME) from natural gas liquid unloading activities for 18 basins in the United States in 2016. For each basin, six discrete liquid-unloading scenarios are considered, consisting of combinations of well types (conventional and unconventional) and liquid-unloading systems (nonplunger, manual plunger lift, and automatic plunger lift). Analysis reveals that methane emissions from liquids unloading are highly variable, with mean TNMEs ranging from 0.0093% to 0.38% across basins. Automatic plunger-lift systems are found to have significantly higher per-well methane emissions rates relative to manual plunger-lift or non-plunger systems and on average constitute 28% of annual methane emissions from liquids unloading over all basins despite representing only ∼0.43% of total natural gas well count. While previous work has advocated that operational malfunctions and abnormal process conditions explain the existence of super-emitters in the natural gas supply chain, this work finds that super-emitters can arise naturally due to variability in underlying component processes. Additionally, average cumulative methane emissions from liquids unloading, attributed to the natural gas supply chain, across all basins are ∼4.8 times higher than those inferred from the 2016 Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP). Our new model highlights the importance of technological disaggregation, uncertainty quantification, and regionalization in estimating episodic methane emissions from liquids unloading. These insights can help reconcile discrepancies between "top-down" (regional or atmospheric studies) and "bottom-up" (component or facility-level) studies.

China's coal mine methane regulations have not curbed growing emissions.

Anthropogenic methane emissions from China are likely greater than in any other country in the world. The largest fraction of China's anthropogenic emissions is attributable to coal mining, but these emissions may be changing; China enacted a suite of regulations for coal mine methane (CMM) drainage and utilization that came into full effect in 2010. Here, we use methane observations from the GOSAT satellite to evaluate recent trends in total anthropogenic and natural emissions from Asia with a particular focus on China. We find that emissions from China rose by 1.1 ± 0.4 Tg CH4 yr-1 from 2010 to 2015, culminating in total anthropogenic and natural emissions of 61.5 ± 2.7 Tg CH4 in 2015. The observed trend is consistent with pre-2010 trends and is largely attributable to coal mining. These results indicate that China's CMM regulations have had no discernible impact on the continued increase in Chinese methane emissions.

Aerially guided leak detection and repair: A pilot field study for evaluating the potential of methane emission detection and cost-effectiveness.

Novel aerial methane (CH4) detection technologies were used in this study to identify anomalously high-emitting oil and gas (O&G) facilities and to guide ground-based "leak detection and repair" (LDAR) teams. This approach has the potential to enable a rapid and effective inspection of O&G facilities under voluntary or regulatory LDAR programs to identify and mitigate anomalously large CH4 emissions from a disproportionately small number of facilities. This is the first study of which the authors are aware to deploy, evaluate, and compare the CH4 detection volumes and cost-effectiveness of aerially guided and purely ground-based LDAR techniques. Two aerial methods, the Kairos Aerospace infrared CH4 column imaging and the Scientific Aviation in situ aircraft CH4 mole fraction measurements, were tested during a 2-week period in the Fayetteville Shale region contemporaneously with conventional ground-based LDAR. We show that aerially guided LDAR can be at least as cost-effective as ground-based LDAR, but several variable parameters were identified that strongly affect cost-effectiveness and which require field research and improvements beyond this pilot study. These parameters include (i) CH4 minimum dectectable limit of aerial technologies, (ii) emission rate size distributions of sources, (iii) remote distinction of fixable versus nonfixable CH4 sources ("leaks" vs. CH4 emissions occurring by design), and (iv) the fraction of fixable sources to total CH4 emissions. Suggestions for future study design are provided. Implications: Mitigation of methane leaks from existing oil and gas operations currently relies on on-site inspections of all applicable facilities at a prescribed frequency. This approach is labor- and cost-intensive, especially because a majority of oil and gas-related methane emissions originate from a disproportionately small number of facilities and components. We show for the first time in real-world conditions how aerial methane measurements can identify anomalously high-emitting facilities to enable a rapid, focused, and directed ground inspection of these facilities. The aerially guided approach can be more cost-effective than current practices, especially when implementing the aircraft deployment improvements discussed here.

Temporal variability largely explains top-down/bottom-up difference in methane emission estimates from a natural gas production region.

This study spatially and temporally aligns top-down and bottom-up methane emission estimates for a natural gas production basin, using multiscale emission measurements and detailed activity data reporting. We show that episodic venting from manual liquid unloadings, which occur at a small fraction of natural gas well pads, drives a factor-of-two temporal variation in the basin-scale emission rate of a US dry shale gas play. The midafternoon peak emission rate aligns with the sampling time of all regional aircraft emission studies, which target well-mixed boundary layer conditions present in the afternoon. A mechanistic understanding of emission estimates derived from various methods is critical for unbiased emission verification and effective greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Our results demonstrate that direct comparison of emission estimates from methods covering widely different timescales can be misleading.

Comparisons of Airborne Measurements and Inventory Estimates of Methane Emissions in the Alberta Upstream Oil and Gas Sector.

Airborne measurements of methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure were completed over two regions of Alberta, Canada. These top-down measurements were directly compared with region-specific bottom-up inventories that utilized current industry-reported flaring and venting volumes (reported data) and quantitative estimates of unreported venting and fugitive sources. For the 50 × 50 km measurement region near Red Deer, characterized by natural gas and light oil production, measured methane fluxes were more than 17 times greater than that derived from directly reported data but consistent with our region-specific bottom-up inventory-based estimate. For the 60 × 60 km measurement region near Lloydminster, characterized by significant cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS), airborne measured methane fluxes were five times greater than directly reported emissions from venting and flaring and four times greater than our region-specific bottom up inventory-based estimate. Extended across Alberta, our results suggest that reported venting emissions in Alberta should be 2.5 ± 0.5 times higher, and total methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas sector (excluding mined oil sands) are likely at least 25-50% greater than current government estimates. Successful mitigation efforts in the Red Deer region will need to focus on the >90% of methane emissions currently unmeasured or unreported.

Improved Mechanistic Understanding of Natural Gas Methane Emissions from Spatially Resolved Aircraft Measurements.

Divergence in recent oil and gas related methane emission estimates between aircraft studies (basin total for a midday window) and emissions inventories (annualized regional and national statistics) indicate the need for better understanding the experimental design, including temporal and spatial alignment and interpretation of results. Our aircraft-based methane emission estimates in a major U.S. shale gas basin resolved from west to east show (i) similar spatial distributions for 2 days, (ii) strong spatial correlations with reported NG production (R2 = 0.75) and active gas well pad count (R2 = 0.81), and (iii) 2× higher emissions in the western half (normalized by gas production) despite relatively homogeneous dry gas and well characteristics. Operator reported hourly activity data show that midday episodic emissions from manual liquid unloadings (a routine operation in this basin and elsewhere) could explain ∼1/3 of the total emissions detected midday by the aircraft and ∼2/3 of the west-east difference in emissions. The 22% emission difference between both days further emphasizes that episodic sources can substantially impact midday methane emissions and that aircraft may detect daily peak emissions rather than daily averages that are generally employed in emissions inventories. While the aircraft approach is valid, quantitative, and independent, our study sheds new light on the interpretation of previous basin scale aircraft studies, and provides an improved mechanistic understanding of oil and gas related methane emissions.

Airborne Quantification of Methane Emissions over the Four Corners Region.

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and the primary component of natural gas. The San Juan Basin (SJB) is one of the largest coal-bed methane producing regions in North America and, including gas production from conventional and shale sources, contributed ∼2% of U.S. natural gas production in 2015. In this work, we quantify the CH4 flux from the SJB using continuous atmospheric sampling from aircraft collected during the TOPDOWN2015 field campaign in April 2015. Using five independent days of measurements and the aircraft-based mass balance method, we calculate an average CH4 flux of 0.54 ± 0.20 Tg yr-1 (1σ), in close agreement with the previous space-based estimate made for 2003-2009. These results agree within error with the U.S. EPA gridded inventory for 2012. These flights combined with the previous satellite study suggest CH4 emissions have not changed. While there have been significant declines in natural gas production between measurements, recent increases in oil production in the SJB may explain why emission of CH4 has not declined. Airborne quantification of outcrops where seepage occurs are consistent with ground-based studies that indicate these geological sources are a small fraction of the basin total (0.02-0.12 Tg yr-1) and cannot explain basinwide consistent emissions from 2003 to 2015.

Upward revision of global fossil fuel methane emissions based on isotope database.

Methane has the second-largest global radiative forcing impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gases after carbon dioxide, but our understanding of the global atmospheric methane budget is incomplete. The global fossil fuel industry (production and usage of natural gas, oil and coal) is thought to contribute 15 to 22 per cent of methane emissions to the total atmospheric methane budget. However, questions remain regarding methane emission trends as a result of fossil fuel industrial activity and the contribution to total methane emissions of sources from the fossil fuel industry and from natural geological seepage, which are often co-located. Here we re-evaluate the global methane budget and the contribution of the fossil fuel industry to methane emissions based on long-term global methane and methane carbon isotope records. We compile the largest isotopic methane source signature database so far, including fossil fuel, microbial and biomass-burning methane emission sources. We find that total fossil fuel methane emissions (fossil fuel industry plus natural geological seepage) are not increasing over time, but are 60 to 110 per cent greater than current estimates owing to large revisions in isotope source signatures. We show that this is consistent with the observed global latitudinal methane gradient. After accounting for natural geological methane seepage, we find that methane emissions from natural gas, oil and coal production and their usage are 20 to 60 per cent greater than inventories. Our findings imply a greater potential for the fossil fuel industry to mitigate anthropogenic climate forcing, but we also find that methane emissions from natural gas as a fraction of production have declined from approximately 8 per cent to approximately 2 per cent over the past three decades.

Natural gas fugitive emissions rates constrained by global atmospheric methane and ethane.

The amount of methane emissions released by the natural gas (NG) industry is a critical and uncertain value for various industry and policy decisions, such as for determining the climate implications of using NG over coal. Previous studies have estimated fugitive emissions rates (FER)--the fraction of produced NG (mainly methane and ethane) escaped to the atmosphere--between 1 and 9%. Most of these studies rely on few and outdated measurements, and some may represent only temporal/regional NG industry snapshots. This study estimates NG industry representative FER using global atmospheric methane and ethane measurements over three decades, and literature ranges of (i) tracer gas atmospheric lifetimes, (ii) non-NG source estimates, and (iii) fossil fuel fugitive gas hydrocarbon compositions. The modeling suggests an upper bound global average FER of 5% during 2006-2011, and a most likely FER of 2-4% since 2000, trending downward. These results do not account for highly uncertain natural hydrocarbon seepage, which could lower the FER. Further emissions reductions by the NG industry may be needed to ensure climate benefits over coal during the next few decades.

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.