Model-based evaluation of admission screening strategies for the detection and control of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales in the English hospital setting.

BACKGROUND: Globally, detections of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) colonisations and infections are increasing. The spread of these highly resistant bacteria poses a serious threat to public health. However, understanding of CPE transmission and evidence on effectiveness of control measures is severely lacking. This paper provides evidence to inform effective admission screening protocols, which could be important in controlling nosocomial CPE transmission. METHODS: CPE transmission within an English hospital setting was simulated with a data-driven individual-based mathematical model. This model was used to evaluate the ability of the 2016 England CPE screening recommendations, and of potential alternative protocols, to identify patients with CPE-colonisation on admission (including those colonised during previous stays or from elsewhere). The model included nosocomial transmission from colonised and infected patients, as well as environmental contamination. Model parameters were estimated using primary data where possible, including estimation of transmission using detailed epidemiological data within a Bayesian framework. Separate models were parameterised to represent hospitals in English areas with low and high CPE risk (based on prevalence). RESULTS: The proportion of truly colonised admissions which met the 2016 screening criteria was 43% in low-prevalence and 54% in high-prevalence areas respectively. Selection of CPE carriers for screening was improved in low-prevalence areas by adding readmission as a screening criterion, which doubled how many colonised admissions were selected. A minority of CPE carriers were confirmed as CPE positive during their hospital stay (10 and 14% in low- and high-prevalence areas); switching to a faster screening test pathway with a single-swab test (rather than three swab regimen) increased the overall positive predictive value with negligible reduction in negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: Using a novel within-hospital CPE transmission model, this study assesses CPE admission screening protocols, across the range of CPE prevalence observed in England. It identifies protocol changes-adding readmissions to screening criteria and a single-swab test pathway-which could detect similar numbers of CPE carriers (or twice as many in low CPE prevalence areas), but faster, and hence with lower demand on pre-emptive infection-control resources. Study findings can inform interventions to control this emerging threat, although further work is required to understand within-hospital transmission sources.

Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020-2022.

Early detection of increased infections or new variants of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for public health response. To determine whether cycle threshold (Ct) data from PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 could serve as an early indicator of epidemic growth, we analyzed daily mean Ct values in England, UK, by gene target and used iterative sequential regression to detect break points in mean Ct values (and positive test counts). To monitor the epidemic in England, we continued those analyses in real time. During September 2020-January 2022, a total of 7,611,153 positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results with Ct data were reported. Spike (S) gene target (S+/S-)-specific mean Ct values decreased 6-29 days before positive test counts increased, and S-gene Ct values provided early indication of increasing new variants (Delta and Omicron). Our approach was beneficial in the context of the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and can be used to support future infectious disease monitoring.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of maternal vaccination against Group B streptococcus in Japan.

Background: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading pathogen causing life-threatening bacterial infections in neonates (early- or late-onset) and infants, and is associated with preterm and stillbirth. Japan introduced national guidelines to reduce early-onset neonatal GBS disease, with universal prenatal screening and intrapartum antimicrobial prophylaxis (IAP). However, screening/IAP does not prevent GBS associated late-onset disease, preterm or stillbirth. Maternal GBS vaccines in development are targeted at infant GBS disease but may provide benefit across perinatal outcomes. We aimed to assess cost-effectiveness of a future maternal GBS vaccine, for a base case prevention of infant GBS disease in combination with screening/IAP compared to screening/IAP alone. Methods: We used a decision tree model to estimate cases of infant GBS disease, deaths, and neuro-developmental impairment (NDI), GBS-related stillbirths, and the associated costs and loss in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). We calculate the threshold price at which a vaccine would be cost-effective assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of ¥5 million/QALY. We explored the potential benefit of a maternal GBS vaccine that also prevents preterm birth in a scenario analysis. Results: Maternal GBS vaccination in Japan could prevent an additional 142 infant GBS cases annually, including 5 deaths and 21 cases of NDI, and 13 stillbirths compared to screening/IAP alone. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was ¥3.78 million/QALY with a vaccine cost of ¥5,000/dose. If the QALY lost for stillbirth is included, the ICER is reduced to ¥1.78 million/QALY. Median threshold vaccine price was ¥6,900 per dose (95 % uncertainty interval ¥5,100 to ¥9,200 per dose). If maternal GBS vaccination also prevented half of GBS-associated preterm, the ICER would be reduced to ¥1.88 million/QALY. Conclusions: An effective maternal GBS vaccine is likely to be considered cost-effective in Japan at a price of ¥5,000/dose. Effectiveness against other adverse perinatal outcomes would increase health benefits and cost-effectiveness.

Early-onset group B streptococcal disease in African countries and maternal vaccination strategies.

Invasive group B streptococcal (GBS) disease is the commonest perinatally-acquired bacterial infection in newborns; the burden is higher in African countries where intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis strategies are not feasible. In sub-Saharan Africa, almost one in four newborns with GBS early-onset disease will demise, and one in ten survivors have moderate or severe neurodevelopmental impairment. A maternal GBS vaccine to prevent invasive GBS disease in infancy is a pragmatic and cost-effective preventative strategy for Africa. Hexavalent polysaccharide protein conjugate and Alpha family surface protein vaccines are undergoing phase II clinical trials. Vaccine licensure may be facilitated by demonstrating safety and immunological correlates/thresholds suggestive of protection against invasive GBS disease. This will then be followed by phase IV effectiveness studies to assess the burden of GBS vaccine preventable disease, including the effect on all-cause neonatal infections, neonatal deaths and stillbirths.

Causes of stillbirth and death among children younger than 5 years in eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia: a population-based post-mortem study.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality is high in Ethiopia, but reliable data on the causes of death are scarce. We aimed to gather data for the contributory causes of stillbirth and child deaths in eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: In this population-based post-mortem study, we established a death-notification system in health facilities and in the community in Kersa (rural), Haramaya (rural) and Harar (urban) in eastern Ethiopia, at a new site of the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network. We collected ante-mortem data, did verbal autopsies, and collected post-mortem samples via minimally invasive tissue sampling from stillbirths (weighing at least 1000 g or with an estimated gestational age of at least 28 weeks) and children who died younger than 5 years. Children-or their mothers, in the case of stillbirths and deaths in children younger than 6 months-had to have lived in the catchment area for the past 6 months to be included. Molecular, microbiological, and histopathological analyses were done in collected samples. Cause of death was established by an expert panel on the basis of these data and classified as underlying, comorbid, or immediate separately for stillbirths, neonatal deaths (deaths aged 0-27 days), and child deaths (aged 28 days to <5 years). FINDINGS: Between Feb 4, 2019, and Feb 3, 2021, 312 deaths were eligible for inclusion, and the families gave consent in 195 (63%) cases. Cause of death was established in 193 (99%) cases. Among 114 stillbirths, the underlying cause of death was perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia in 60 (53%) and birth defects in 24 (21%). Among 59 neonatal deaths, the most common underlying cause was perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (17 [29%]) and the most common immediate cause of death was neonatal sepsis, which occurred in 27 (60%). Among 20 deaths in children aged 28 days to 59 months, malnutrition was the leading underlying cause (15 [75%]) and infections were common immediate and comorbid causes. Pathogens were identified in 19 (95%) child deaths, most commonly Klebsiella pneumoniae and Streptococcus pneumoniae. INTERPRETATION: Perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia, infections, and birth defects accounted for most stillbirths and child deaths. Most deaths could have been prevented with feasible interventions, such as improved maternity services, folate supplementation, and improved vaccine uptake. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of Intermittent Presumptive Treatment for Malaria in Pregnancy on Hospital Birth Outcomes on the Kenyan Coast.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) for pregnant women with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is widely implemented for the prevention of malaria in pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes. The efficacy of SP is declining, and there are concerns that IPTp may have reduced impact in areas of high resistance. We sought to determine the protection afforded by SP as part of IPTp against adverse birth outcomes in an area with high levels of SP resistance on the Kenyan coast. METHODS: A secondary analysis of surveillance data on deliveries at the Kilifi County Hospital between 2015 and 2021 was undertaken in an area of low malaria transmission and high parasite mutations associated with SP resistance. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to estimate the effect of SP doses on the risk of low birthweight (LBW) deliveries and stillbirths. RESULTS: Among 27 786 deliveries, 3 or more doses of IPTp-SP were associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of LBW (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], .64-.83; P < .001) compared with no dose. A dose-response association was observed with increasing doses of SP from the second trimester linked to increasing protection against LBW deliveries. Three or more doses of IPTp-SP were also associated with a 21% reduction in stillbirth deliveries (aOR, 0.79; 95% CI, .65-.97; P = .044) compared with women who did not take any dose of IPTp-SP. CONCLUSIONS: The continued significant association of SP on LBW deliveries suggests that the intervention may have a non-malaria impact on pregnancy outcomes.

Replacement dynamics and the pathogenesis of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

New SARS-CoV-2 variants causing COVID-19 are a major risk to public health worldwide due to the potential for phenotypic change and increases in pathogenicity, transmissibility and/or vaccine escape. Recognising signatures of new variants in terms of replacing growth and severity are key to informing the public health response. To assess this, we aimed to investigate key time periods in the course of infection, hospitalisation and death, by variant. We linked datasets on contact tracing (Contact Tracing Advisory Service), testing (the Second-Generation Surveillance System) and hospitalisation (the Admitted Patient Care dataset) for the entire length of contact tracing in the England - from March 2020 to March 2022. We modelled, for England, time delay distributions using a Bayesian doubly interval censored modelling approach for the SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha, Delta, Delta Plus (AY.4.2), Omicron BA.1 and Omicron BA.2. This was conducted for the incubation period, the time from infection to hospitalisation and hospitalisation to death. We further modelled the growth of novel variant replacement using a generalised additive model with a negative binomial error structure and the relationship between incubation period length and the risk of a fatality using a Bernoulli generalised linear model with a logit link. The mean incubation periods for each variant were: Alpha 4.19 (95% credible interval (CrI) 4.13-4.26) days; Delta 3.87 (95% CrI 3.82-3.93) days; Delta Plus 3.92 (95% CrI 3.87-3.98) days; Omicron BA.1 3.67 (95% CrI 3.61-3.72) days and Omicron BA.2 3.48 (95% CrI 3.43-3.53) days. The mean time from infection to hospitalisation was for Alpha 11.31 (95% CrI 11.20-11.41) days, Delta 10.36 (95% CrI 10.26-10.45) days and Omicron BA.1 11.54 (95% CrI 11.38-11.70) days. The mean time from hospitalisation to death was, for Alpha 14.31 (95% CrI 14.00-14.62) days; Delta 12.81 (95% CrI 12.62-13.00) days and Omicron BA.2 16.02 (95% CrI 15.46-16.60) days. The 95th percentile of the incubation periods were: Alpha 11.19 (95% CrI 10.92-11.48) days; Delta 9.97 (95% CrI 9.73-10.21) days; Delta Plus 9.99 (95% CrI 9.78-10.24) days; Omicron BA.1 9.45 (95% CrI 9.23-9.67) days and Omicron BA.2 8.83 (95% CrI 8.62-9.05) days. Shorter incubation periods were associated with greater fatality risk when adjusted for age, sex, variant, vaccination status, vaccination manufacturer and time since last dose with an odds ratio of 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.82-0.83) (P value < 0.05). Variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have replaced previously dominant variants have had shorter incubation periods. Conversely co-existing variants have had very similar and non-distinct incubation period distributions. Shorter incubation periods reflect generation time advantage, with a reduction in the time to the peak infectious period, and may be a significant factor in novel variant replacing growth. Shorter times for admission to hospital and death were associated with variant severity - the most severe variant, Delta, led to significantly earlier hospitalisation, and death. These measures are likely important for future risk assessment of new variants, and their potential impact on population health.

Detection of pathogens associated with early-onset neonatal sepsis in cord blood at birth using quantitative PCR.

Background: Early onset neonatal sepsis (EONS) typically begins prior to, during or soon after birth and may be rapidly fatal. There is paucity of data on the aetiology of EONS in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited diagnostic capacity in this region, despite the associated significant mortality and long-term neurological impairment. Methods: We compared pathogens detected in cord blood samples between neonates admitted to hospital with possible serious bacterial infection (pSBI) in the first 48 hours of life (cases) and neonates remaining well (controls). Cord blood was systematically collected at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) from 2011-2016, and later tested for 21 bacterial, viral and protozoal targets using multiplex PCR via TaqMan Array Cards (TAC). Results: Among 603 cases (101 [17%] of whom died), 179 (30%) tested positive for ≥1 target and 37 (6.1%) tested positive for multiple targets. Klebsiella oxytoca, Escherichia coli/Shigella spp., Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Streptococcus pyogenes were commonest. Among 300 controls, 79 (26%) tested positive for ≥1 target, 11 (3.7%) were positive for multiple targets, and K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa were most common. Cumulative odds ratios across controls: cases (survived): cases (died) were E. coli/Shigella spp. 2.6 (95%CI 1.6-4.4); E. faecalis 4.0 (95%CI 1.1-15); S. agalactiae 4.5 (95%CI 1.6-13); Ureaplasma spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.3-6.4); Enterovirus 9.1 (95%CI 2.3-37); and Plasmodium spp. 2.9 (95%CI 1.4-6.2). Excluding K. oxytoca and P. aeruginosa as likely contaminants, aetiology was attributed in 9.4% (95%CI 5.1-13) cases using TAC. Leading pathogen attributions by TAC were E. coli/Shigella spp. (3.5% (95%CI 1.7-5.3)) and Ureaplasma spp. (1.7% (95%CI 0.5-3.0)). Conclusions: Cord blood sample may be useful in describing EONS pathogens at birth, but more specific tests are needed for individual diagnosis. Careful sampling of cord blood using aseptic techniques is crucial to minimize contamination. In addition to culturable bacteria, Ureaplasma and Enterovirus were causes of EONS.

Standardization of Epidemiological Surveillance of Group A Streptococcal Cellulitis.

Cellulitis is an acute bacterial infection of the dermis and subcutaneous tissue usually found complicating a wound, ulcer, or dermatosis. This article provides guidelines for the surveillance of cellulitis. The primary objectives of cellulitis surveillance are to (1) monitor trends in rates of infection, (2) describe the demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with cellulitis, (3) estimate the frequency of complications, and (4) describe the risk factors associated with primary and recurrent cellulitis. This article includes case definitions for clinical cellulitis and group A streptococcal cellulitis, based on clinical and laboratory evidence, and case classifications for an initial and recurrent case. It is expected that surveillance for cellulitis will be for all-cause cellulitis, rather than specifically for Strep A cellulitis. Considerations of the type of surveillance are also presented, including identification of data sources and surveillance type. Minimal surveillance necessary for cellulitis is facility-based, passive surveillance. Prospective, active, facility-based surveillance is recommended for estimates of pathogen-specific cellulitis burden. Participant eligibility, surveillance population, and additional surveillance considerations such as active follow-up of cases, the use of International Classification of Disease diagnosis codes, and microbiological sampling of cases are discussed. Finally, the core data elements to be collected on case report forms are presented.

Invasive group A streptococcal disease in pregnant women and young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of invasive disease caused by group A streptococcus (GAS) has increased in multiple countries in the past 15 years. However, despite these reports, to the best of our knowledge, no systematic reviews and combined estimates of the incidence of invasive GAS have been done in key high-risk groups. To address this, we estimated the incidence of invasive GAS disease, including death and disability outcomes, among two high-risk groups-namely, pregnant women and children younger than 5 years. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analyses on invasive GAS outcomes, including incidence, case fatality risks, and neurodevelopmental impairment risk, among pregnant women, neonates (younger than 28 days), infants (younger than 1 year), and children (younger than 5 years) worldwide and by income region. We searched several databases for articles published from Jan 1, 2000, to June 3, 2020, for publications that reported invasive GAS outcomes, and we sought unpublished data from an investigator group of collaborators. We included studies with data on invasive GAS cases, defined as laboratory isolation of Streptococcus pyogenes from any normally sterile site, or isolation of S pyogenes from a non-sterile site in a patient with necrotising fasciitis or streptococcal toxic shock syndrome. For inclusion in pooled incidence estimates, studies had to report a population denominator, and for inclusion in pooled estimates of case fatality risk, studies had to report aggregate data on the outcome of interest and the total number of cases included as a denominator. We excluded studies focusing on groups at very high risk (eg, only preterm infants). We assessed heterogeneity with I2. FINDINGS: Of the 950 published articles and 29 unpublished datasets identified, 20 studies (seven unpublished; 3829 cases of invasive GAS) from 12 countries provided sufficient data to be included in pooled estimates of outcomes. We did not identify studies reporting invasive GAS incidence among pregnant women in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) nor any reporting neurodevelopmental impairment after invasive GAS in LMICs. In nine studies from high-income countries (HICs) that reported invasive GAS in pregnancy and the post-partum period, invasive GAS incidence was 0·12 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 0·11 to 0·14; I2=100%). Invasive GAS incidence was 0·04 per 1000 livebirths (0·03 to 0·05; I2=100%; 11 studies) for neonates, 0·13 per 1000 livebirths (0·10 to 0·16; I2=100%; ten studies) for infants, and 0·09 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0·07 to 0·10; I2=100%; nine studies) for children worldwide; 0·12 per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 0·00 to 0·24; I2=100%; three studies) in neonates, 0·33 per 1000 livebirths (-0·22 to 0·88; I2=100%; two studies) in infants, and 0·22 per 1000 person-years (0·13 to 0·31; I2=100%; two studies) in children in LMICs; and 0·02 per 1000 livebirths (0·00 to 0·03; I2=100%; eight studies) in neonates, 0·08 per 1000 livebirths (0·05 to 0·11; I2=100%; eight studies) in infants, and 0·05 per 1000 person-years (0·03 to 0·06; I2=100%; seven studies) in children for HICs. Case fatality risks were high, particularly among neonates in LMICs (61% [95% CI 33 to 89]; I2=54%; two studies). INTERPRETATION: We found a substantial burden of invasive GAS among young children. In LMICs, little data were available for neonates and children and no data were available for pregnant women. Incidences of invasive GAS are likely to be underestimates, particularly in LMICs, due to low GAS surveillance. It is essential to improve available data to inform development of prevention and management strategies for invasive GAS. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

The Impact of Interventions to Prevent Neonatal Healthcare-associated Infections in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Clinically suspected and laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infections are frequent causes of morbidity and mortality during neonatal care. The most effective infection prevention and control interventions for neonates in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) are unknown. AIM: To identify effective interventions in the prevention of hospital-acquired bloodstream infections in LMIC neonatal units. METHODS: Medline, PUBMED, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, EMBASE and PsychInfo (January 2003 to October 2020) were searched to identify studies reporting single or bundled interventions for prevention of bloodstream infections in LMIC neonatal units. RESULTS: Our initial search identified 5206 articles; following application of filters, 27 publications met the inclusion and Integrated Quality Criteria for the Review of Multiple Study Designs assessment criteria and were summarized in the final analysis. No studies were carried out in low-income countries, only 1 in Sub-Saharan Africa and just 2 in multiple countries. Of the 18 single-intervention studies, most targeted skin (n = 4) and gastrointestinal mucosal integrity (n = 5). Whereas emollient therapy and lactoferrin achieved significant reductions in proven neonatal infection, glutamine and mixed probiotics showed no benefit. Chlorhexidine gluconate for cord care and kangaroo mother care reduced infection in individual single-center studies. Of the 9 studies evaluating bundles, most focused on prevention of device-associated infections and achieved significant reductions in catheter- and ventilator-associated infections. CONCLUSIONS: There is a limited evidence base for the effectiveness of infection prevention and control interventions in LMIC neonatal units; bundled interventions targeting device-associated infections were most effective. More multisite studies with robust study designs are needed to inform infection prevention and control intervention strategies in low-resource neonatal units.

A snapshot of the practicality and barriers to COVID-19 interventions: Public health and healthcare workers' perceptions in high and low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have implemented a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions (PIs) to reduce transmission and minimise morbidity and mortality, whilst maintaining social and economic activities. The perceptions of public health workers (PHWs) and healthcare workers (HCWs) are essential to inform future COVID-19 strategies as they are viewed as trusted sources and are at the forefront of COVID-19 response. The objectives of this study were to 1) describe the practicality of implementing NPIs and PIs and 2) identify potential barriers to implementation, as perceived by HCWs and PHWs. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of PHWs and HCWs perceptions of the implementation, practicality of, and barriers to implementation of NPIs and PIs using an online survey (28/9/2020-1/11/2020) available in English, French and Portuguese. We used descriptive statistics and thematic analysis to analyse quantitative and qualitative responses. RESULTS: In total, 226 respondents (67 HCWs and 159 PHWs) from 52 countries completed the survey and 222 were included in the final analysis. Participants from low and middle-income countries (LMICs) accounted for 63% of HCWs and 67% of PHWs, with the remaining from high-income (HICs). There was little difference between the perceptions of PHWs and HCWs in HICs and LMICs, with the majority regarding a number of common NPIs as difficult to implement. However, PHWs in HICs perceived restrictions on schools and educational institutions to be more difficult to implement, with a lack of childcare support identified as the main barrier. Additionally, most contact tracing methods were perceived to be more difficult to implement in HICs than LMICs, with a range of barriers reported. A lack of public support was the most commonly reported barrier to NPIs overall across both country income and professional groups. Similarly, public fear of vaccine safety and lack of vaccine supply were the main reported barriers to implementing a COVID-19 vaccine. However, PHWs and HCWs in LMICs perceived a lack of financial support and the vaccine being manufactured in another country as additional barriers. CONCLUSION: This snapshot provides insight into the difficulty of implementing interventions as perceived by PHWs and HCWs. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to implementing interventions, and barriers in different contexts do vary. Barriers to implementing a vaccine programme expressed here by HCWs and PHCWs have subsequently come to the fore internationally.

A mixed-methods analysis of personal protective equipment used in Lassa fever treatment centres in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever (LF) is a viral haemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa. Lassa virus is maintained in and spread to humans from rodents, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. Present recommendations for personal protective equipment (PPE) for care of patients with LF generally follow those for filovirus diseases. However, the need for such high-level PPE for LF, which is thought to be considerably less transmissible between humans than filoviruses, is unclear. AIM: In Nigerian Lassa Treatment Centres (LTCs) we aimed to describe current PPE practices, identify barriers and facilitators to implementation of existing guidance, and assess healthcare workers' understanding. This would inform the development of future PPE guidelines for LF. METHODS: We performed a mixed-methods study, including short cross-sectional surveys of PPE used in LTCs, observations of practice, and in-depth interviews with key informants. We described the quantitative data and we conducted a thematic analysis of qualitative data. FINDINGS: Our survey of 74 HCWs found that approximately half reported problems with recommended PPE. In three LTCs PPE was used highly variably. Full PPE, as recommended in Nigeria CDC guidelines, was used in less than a quarter (21%) of interactions. In-depth interviews suggested this was based on availability and HCWs' own risk assessments. CONCLUSION: Without specific guidance on Lassa, the current approach is both resource and labour-intensive, where these are both limited. This has led to low adherence by health care workers, whose own experience indicates lower risk. The evidence-base to inform PPE required for LF must be improved to inform a more tailored approach.

Systematic review of Group B Streptococcal capsular types, sequence types and surface proteins as potential vaccine candidates.

BACKGROUND: 21 million pregnant women worldwide (18%) are estimated to carry Group B Streptococcus (GBS), which is a risk for invasive disease in newborns, pregnant women, and stillbirths. Adults ≥ 60 years or with underlying health conditions are also vulnerable to invasive GBS disease. We undertook systematic reviews on GBS organism characteristics including: capsular polysaccharide (serotype), sequence type (multi-locus sequence types (MLST)), and virulence proteins. We synthesised data by at-risk populations, to inform vaccine development. METHODS: We conducted systematic reviews and meta-analyses to estimate proportions of GBS serotypes for at risk populations: maternal colonisation, invasive disease in pregnant women, stillbirths, infants 0-90 days age, and older adults (≥60 years). We considered regional variation and time trends (2001-2018). For these at-risk population groups, we summarised reported MLST and surface proteins. RESULTS: Based on 198 studies (29247isolates), 93-99% of GBS isolates were serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, IV and V. Regional variation is likely, but data gaps are apparent, even for maternal colonisation which has most data. Serotype III dominates for infant invasive disease (60%) and GBS-associated stillbirths (41%). ST17 accounted for a high proportion of infant invasive disease (41%; 95%CI: 35-47) and was found almost exclusively in serotype III strains, less present in maternal colonisation (9%; 95%CI:6-13),(4%; 95%CI:0-11) infant colonisation, and adult invasive disease (4%, 95%CI:2-6). Percentages of strains with at least one of alp 1, alp2/3, alpha C or Rib surface protein targets were 87% of maternal colonisation, 97% infant colonisation, 93% infant disease and 99% adult invasive disease. At least one of three pilus islands proteins were reported in all strains. DISCUSSION: A hexavalent vaccine (serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, IV and V) might provide comprehensive cover for all at-risk populations. Surveillance of circulating, disease-causing target proteins is useful to inform vaccines not targeting capsular polysaccharide. Addressing data gaps especially by world region and some at-risk populations (notably stillbirths) is fundamental to evidence-based decision-making during vaccine design.

Initial findings from a novel population-based child mortality surveillance approach: a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia contributed 81% of 5·9 million under-5 deaths and 77% of 2·6 million stillbirths worldwide in 2015. Vital registration and verbal autopsy data are mainstays for the estimation of leading causes of death, but both are non-specific and focus on a single underlying cause. We aimed to provide granular data on the contributory causes of death in stillborn fetuses and in deceased neonates and children younger than 5 years, to inform child mortality prevention efforts. METHODS: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network was established at sites in seven countries (Baliakandi, Bangladesh; Harar and Kersa, Ethiopia; Siaya and Kisumu, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Bombali, Sierra Leone; and Soweto, South Africa) to collect standardised, population-based, longitudinal data on under-5 mortality and stillbirths in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, to improve the accuracy of determining causes of death. Here, we analysed data obtained in the first 2 years after the implementation of CHAMPS at the first five operational sites, during which surveillance and post-mortem diagnostics, including minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), were used. Data were abstracted from all available clinical records of deceased children, and relevant maternal health records were also extracted for stillbirths and neonatal deaths, to incorporate reported pregnancy or delivery complications. Expert panels followed standardised procedures to characterise causal chains leading to death, including underlying, intermediate (comorbid or antecedent causes), and immediate causes of death for stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and child (age 1-59 months) deaths. FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2016, and Dec 31, 2018, MITS procedures were implemented at five sites in Mozambique, South Africa, Kenya, Mali, and Bangladesh. We screened 2385 death notifications for inclusion eligibility, following which 1295 families were approached for consent; consent was provided for MITS by 963 (74%) of 1295 eligible cases approached. At least one cause of death was identified in 912 (98%) of 933 cases (180 stillbirths, 449 neonatal deaths, and 304 child deaths); two or more conditions were identified in the causal chain for 585 (63%) of 933 cases. The most common underlying causes of stillbirth were perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (130 [72%] of 180 stillbirths) and congenital infection or sepsis (27 [15%]). The most common underlying causes of neonatal death were preterm birth complications (187 [42%] of 449 neonatal deaths), perinatal asphyxia or hypoxia (98 [22%]), and neonatal sepsis (50 [11%]). The most common underlying causes of child deaths were congenital birth defects (39 [13%] of 304 deaths), lower respiratory infection (37 [12%]), and HIV (35 [12%]). In 503 (54%) of 933 cases, at least one contributory pathogen was identified. Cytomegalovirus, Escherichia coli, group B Streptococcus, and other infections contributed to 30 (17%) of 180 stillbirths. Among neonatal deaths with underlying prematurity, 60% were precipitated by other infectious causes. Of the 275 child deaths with infectious causes, the most common contributory pathogens were Klebsiella pneumoniae (86 [31%]), Streptococcus pneumoniae (54 [20%]), HIV (40 [15%]), and cytomegalovirus (34 [12%]), and multiple infections were common. Lower respiratory tract infection contributed to 174 (57%) of 304 child deaths. INTERPRETATION: Cause of death determination using MITS enabled detailed characterisation of contributing conditions. Global estimates of child mortality aetiologies, which are currently based on a single syndromic cause for each death, will be strengthened by findings from CHAMPS. This approach adds specificity and provides a more complete overview of the chain of events leading to death, highlighting multiple potential interventions to prevent under-5 mortality and stillbirths. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Protocol for a randomised trial of early kangaroo mother care compared to standard care on survival of pre-stabilised preterm neonates in The Gambia (eKMC).

BACKGROUND: Complications of preterm birth cause more than 1 million deaths each year, mostly within the first day after birth (47%) and before full post-natal stabilisation. Kangaroo mother care (KMC), provided as continuous skin-to-skin contact for 18 h per day to fully stabilised neonates ≤ 2000 g, reduces mortality by 36-51% at discharge or term-corrected age compared with incubator care. The mortality effect of starting continuous KMC before stabilisation is a priority evidence gap, which we aim to investigate in the eKMC trial, with a secondary aim of understanding mechanisms, particularly for infection prevention. METHODS: We will conduct a single-site, non-blinded, individually randomised, controlled trial comparing two parallel groups to either early (within 24 h of admission) continuous KMC or standard care on incubator or radiant heater with KMC when clinically stable at > 24 h of admission. Eligible neonates (n = 392) are hospitalised singletons or twins < 2000 g and 1-24 h old at screening who are mild to moderately unstable as per a trial definition using cardio-respiratory parameters. Randomisation is stratified by weight category (< 1200 g; ≥ 1200 g) and in random permuted blocks of varying sizes with allocation of twins to the same arm. Participants are followed up to 28 ± 5 days of age with regular inpatient assessments plus criteria-led review in the event of clinical deterioration. The primary outcome is all-cause neonatal mortality by age 28 days. Secondary outcomes include the time to death, cardio-respiratory stability, hypothermia, exclusive breastfeeding at discharge, weight gain at age 28 days, clinically suspected infection (age 3 to 28 days), intestinal carriage of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing (ESBL) Klebsiella pneumoniae (age 28 days), and duration of the hospital stay. Intention-to-treat analysis will be applied for all outcomes, adjusting for twin gestation. DISCUSSION: This is one of the first clinical trials to examine the KMC mortality effect in a pre-stabilised preterm population. Our findings will contribute to the global evidence base in addition to providing insights into the infection prevention mechanisms and safety of using this established intervention for the most vulnerable neonatal population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03555981. Submitted 8 May 2018 and registered 14 June 2018. Prospectively registered.

Genomic Epidemiology of Complex, Multispecies, Plasmid-Borne blaKPC Carbapenemase in Enterobacterales in the United Kingdom from 2009 to 2014.

Carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales is a public health threat. Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (encoded by alleles of the blaKPC family) is one of the most common transmissible carbapenem resistance mechanisms worldwide. The dissemination of blaKPC historically has been associated with distinct K. pneumoniae lineages (clonal group 258 [CG258]), a particular plasmid family (pKpQIL), and a composite transposon (Tn4401). In the United Kingdom, blaKPC has represented a large-scale, persistent management challenge for some hospitals, particularly in North West England. The dissemination of blaKPC has evolved to be polyclonal and polyspecies, but the genetic mechanisms underpinning this evolution have not been elucidated in detail; this study used short-read whole-genome sequencing of 604 blaKPC-positive isolates (Illumina) and long-read assembly (PacBio)/polishing (Illumina) of 21 isolates for characterization. We observed the dissemination of blaKPC (predominantly blaKPC-2; 573/604 [95%] isolates) across eight species and more than 100 known sequence types. Although there was some variation at the transposon level (mostly Tn4401a, 584/604 [97%] isolates; predominantly with ATTGA-ATTGA target site duplications, 465/604 [77%] isolates), blaKPC spread appears to have been supported by highly fluid, modular exchange of larger genetic segments among plasmid populations dominated by IncFIB (580/604 isolates), IncFII (545/604 isolates), and IncR (252/604 isolates) replicons. The subset of reconstructed plasmid sequences (21 isolates, 77 plasmids) also highlighted modular exchange among non-blaKPC and blaKPC plasmids and the common presence of multiple replicons within blaKPC plasmid structures (>60%). The substantial genomic plasticity observed has important implications for our understanding of the epidemiology of transmissible carbapenem resistance in Enterobacterales for the implementation of adequate surveillance approaches and for control.

COVID-19: Identifying countries with indicators of success in responding to the outbreak.

Background: In designing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is critical to understand what has already worked well. We aimed to identify countries with emerging success stories from whom policymakers might draw important lessons.  Methods: We developed a process to first include countries with large enough populations that results were unlikely to be due to chance, that had sufficient cases for response mechanisms to be tested, and that shared the necessary publicly available data. Within these countries, we looked at indicators suggesting success in terms of detecting disease, containing the outbreak, and treating those who were unwell. To support comparability, we measured indicators per capita (per million) and across time. We then used the indicators to identify three countries with emerging success stories to include some diversity in global region, population demographics and form of government. Results: We identified 66 countries that met our inclusion criteria on 18 th May 2020. Several of these countries had indicators of success against the set indicators at different times in the outbreak. Vietnam had high levels of testing and successful containment with no deaths reported. South Korea had high levels of testing early in the outbreak, supporting containment. Germany had high levels of sustained testing and slower increases in cases and deaths than seen in other comparable settings. Conclusions: At the time of our assessment, Vietnam and South Korea were able to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 and avoid the exponential growth in cases seen elsewhere. Germany had more cases and deaths, but was nevertheless able to contain and mitigate the outbreak. Despite the many limitations to the data currently available, looking at comparative data can help identify countries from whom we can draw lessons, so that countries can inform and adapt their strategies for success in response to COVID-19.