Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change.

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO2 and temperature, CO2 and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%-6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (-8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (-5.0% vs. -9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of -10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (-7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.

Control charts for measurement error models.

We consider a linear measurement error model (MEM) with AR(1) process in the state equation which is widely used in applied research. This MEM could be equivalently re-written as ARMA(1,1) process, where the MA(1) parameter is related to the variance of measurement errors. As the MA(1) parameter is of essential importance for these linear MEMs, it is of much relevance to provide instruments for online monitoring in order to detect its possible changes. In this paper we develop control charts for online detection of such changes, i.e., from AR(1) to ARMA(1,1) and vice versa, as soon as they occur. For this purpose, we elaborate on both cumulative sum (CUSUM) and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts and investigate their performance in a Monte Carlo simulation study. The empirical illustration of our approach is conducted based on time series of daily realized volatilities.

The Relationship Between Maxillary Growth and Speech in Children With a Unilateral Cleft Lip and Palate at 5 Years of Age.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to investigate the association between maxillary growth and speech outcomes for children with a repaired unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP) at 5 years of age. PARTICIPANTS: In all, 521 children (180 females and 341 males) with a nonsyndromic complete UCLP, born between 2007 and 2012 in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland were included in this study. OUTCOME MEASURES: Maxillary growth was analyzed using dental models scored by the 5-Year-Olds' index, and perceptual speech analyses were scored by the Cleft Audit Protocol for Speech - Augmented rating. RESULTS: Forty-one percent of the children achieved good maxillary growth (scores 1 and 2 on 5-Year-Old' index). Fifty percent of the children achieved normal speech (achieving UK speech standard 1). Maxillary growth was not found to have an impact on speech outcome when described by the 3 UK National Cleft Lip and Palate Speech Audit Outcome Standards. Analysis according to individual speech parameters showed dentalizations to be less prevalent in children with good maxillary growth compared to fair and poor growth (P = .001). The remaining speech parameters within resonance, nasal airflow, and articulation categories were not significantly associated with maxillary growth. CONCLUSION: The findings from this study suggest that children with a history of complete UCLP, who have poor maxillary growth, are not at a higher risk of having major speech errors compared to children with good or fair maxillary growth at 5 years of age.

Intelligibility in 3-Year-Olds With Cleft Lip and/or Palate Using the Intelligibility in Context Scale: Findings from the Cleft Collective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To provide comparison data on the Intelligibility in Context Scale (ICS) for a sample of 3-year-old English-speaking children born with any cleft type. DESIGN: Questionnaire data from the Cleft Collective Cohort Study were used. Descriptive and inferential statistics were carried out to determine difference according to children's cleft type and syndromic status. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 412 children born with cleft lip and/or palate whose mothers had completed the ICS when their child was 3 years old. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Mothers' rating of their children's intelligibility using the ICS. RESULTS: The average ICS score for the total sample was 3.75 (sometimes-usually intelligible; standard deviation [SD] = 0.76, 95% CIs = 3.68-3.83) of a possible score of 5 (always intelligible). Children's speech was reported to be most intelligible to their mothers (mean = 4.33, SD = 0.61, 95% CIs = 4.27-4.39) and least intelligible to strangers (mean = 3.36, SD = 1.00, 95% CIs = 3.26-3.45). There was strong evidence (P < .001) for a difference in intelligibility between children with cleft lip only (n = 104, mean = 4.13, SD = 0.62, 95% CIs = 4.01-4.25) and children with any form of cleft palate (n = 308, mean = 3.63, SD = 0.76, 95% CIs = 3.52-3.71). Children born with cleft palate with or without cleft lip and an identified syndrome were rated as less intelligible (n = 63, mean = 3.28, SD = 0.85, 95% CIs = 3.06-3.49) compared to children who did not have a syndrome (n = 245, mean = 3.72, SD = 0.71, 95% CIs = 3.63-3.81). CONCLUSIONS: These results provide preliminary comparative data for clinical services using the outcome measures recommended by the International Consortium for Health Outcomes Measurement.

Meta-analysis of multiple driver effects on marine phytoplankton highlights modulating role of pCO2.

Responses of marine primary production to a changing climate are determined by a concert of multiple environmental changes, for example in temperature, light, pCO2 , nutrients, and grazing. To make robust projections of future global marine primary production, it is crucial to understand multiple driver effects on phytoplankton. This meta-analysis quantifies individual and interactive effects of dual driver combinations on marine phytoplankton growth rates. Almost 50% of the single-species laboratory studies were excluded because central data and metadata (growth rates, carbonate system, experimental treatments) were insufficiently reported. The remaining data (42 studies) allowed for the analysis of interactions of pCO2 with temperature, light, and nutrients, respectively. Growth rates mostly respond non-additively, whereby the interaction with increased pCO2 profusely dampens growth-enhancing effects of high temperature and high light. Multiple and single driver effects on coccolithophores differ from other phytoplankton groups, especially in their high sensitivity to increasing pCO2 . Polar species decrease their growth rate in response to high pCO2 , while temperate and tropical species benefit under these conditions. Based on the observed interactions and projected changes, we anticipate primary productivity to: (a) first increase but eventually decrease in the Arctic Ocean once nutrient limitation outweighs the benefits of higher light availability; (b) decrease in the tropics and mid-latitudes due to intensifying nutrient limitation, possibly amplified by elevated pCO2 ; and (c) increase in the Southern Ocean in view of higher nutrient availability and synergistic interaction with increasing pCO2 . Growth-enhancing effect of high light and warming to coccolithophores, mainly Emiliania huxleyi, might increase their relative abundance as long as not offset by acidification. Dinoflagellates are expected to increase their relative abundance due to their positive growth response to increasing pCO2 and light levels. Our analysis reveals gaps in the knowledge on multiple driver responses and provides recommendations for future work on phytoplankton.

An Alternative Approach to Measuring Reliability of Transcription in Children's Speech Samples: Extending the Concept of Near Functional Equivalence.

AIM: To explore a novel and efficient way of calculating transcription reliability of connected speech data using the concept of near functional equivalence. Using this approach, differences between two transcribed phonemes that are nearly phonetically equivalent are disregarded if both reflect two plausible and acceptable pronunciations for the word produced. METHOD: The study used transcriptions of connected speech samples from 63 five-year-olds who participated in a large-scale population study. Each recording was phonetically transcribed by two speech and language therapists. Two independent researchers then examined agreement -between the two sets of transcripts, marking differences in vowels, consonants and diacritics and identifying segments which represented near functional equivalence. RESULTS: Overall percentage agreement between the transcripts was 77%. One quarter of the differences between the two transcripts were identified as showing near functional equivalence. When this category was excluded, the transcripts showed 82% reliability. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the issues to consider when calculating transcription reliability. Other methods are often time-intensive and may highlight differences between transcribed units which are audibly very similar and would be negligible in ordinary conversation. Inclusion of the concept of "near functional equivalence" can result in higher reliability scores for transcription, without loss of rigour.