FMD vaccine allocation and surveillance resourcing options for a potential Australian incursion.

Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) epidemiological simulation modelling of potential foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the state of Victoria, Australia examined the targeted use of limited vaccine supplies in combination with varying surveillance resources. Updated, detailed estimates of government response costs were prepared based on state level data inputs of required and available resources. Measures of outbreak spread such as duration and numbers of animals removed through depopulation of infected and vaccinated herds from the epidemiological modelling were compared to summed government response costs. This comparison illustrated the trade-offs between targeted control strategies combining vaccination-to-remove and varying surveillance capacities and their corresponding costs. For this intensive cattle and sheep producing region: (1) Targeting vaccination toward intensive production areas or toward specialized cattle operations had outbreak control and response cost advantages similar to vaccination of all species. The median duration was reduced by 27% and response costs by 11%. (2) Adding to the pool of outbreak surveillance resources available further decreased outbreak duration and outbreak response costs. The median duration was reduced by an additional 13% and response costs declined by an additional 8%. (3) Pooling of vaccine resources overcame the very early binding constraints under proportional allocation of vaccines to individual states with similar reductions in outbreak duration to those with additional surveillance resources. However, government costs rose substantially by over 40% and introduced additional risk of a negative consumer response. Increased knowledge of the outbreak situation obtained from more surveillance led to better-informed vaccination deployment decisions in the short timeframe they needed to be made.

Economic benefits of implementing trading zones for Australian livestock disease outbreaks of limited duration.

OBJECTIVE: The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks. DESIGN: The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven individual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. RESULTS: Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate. CONCLUSION: Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.

Estimate of the national incidence of and operation-level risk factors for colic among horses in the United States, spring 1998 to spring 1999.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the national incidence of, operation-level risk factors for, and annual economic impact of colic among horses in the United States during 1998 and 1999. DESIGN: Epidemiologic survey. ANIMALS: 21,820 horses on 1,026 horse operations in 28 states. PROCEDURES: Horses were monitored for colic for 1 year, and results were recorded in a log that was collected quarterly. Operation-level data were collected via 4 on-site personal interviews. Associations between colic and independent variables adjusted for size of operation were determined. RESULTS: Annual national incidence of colic in the US horse population was estimated to be 4.2 colic events/100 horses per year. Case fatality rate was 11%, and 1.4% of colic events resulted in surgery. Annual cost of colic in the United States was estimated to be $115,300,000. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The national impact of equine colic is substantial because of the high case fatality rate.

Key health issues for dairy cattle--new and old.

The objective of this paper is to use available information to evaluate the relative importance of various health issues affecting dairy cattle. In addition to traditional ranking using evaluation methods based on impacts to animal productivity, this paper considers zoonotic risks, international trade implications, and animal welfare concerns. Traditional production costs rank mastitis, reproductive problems, and lameness as the top dairy cattle diseases. When the other areas of importance are included, the top-ranked diseases change to include salmonella, Johne's disease, bovine viral diarrhea-associated disease, and mastitis. Researchers in the dairy industry may want to reevaluate their criteria for setting research priorities to include zoonotic risks, international trade implications, and animal welfare concerns.