Simulating drifting fish aggregating device trajectories to identify potential interactions with endangered sea turtles.

Purse-seine fishers using drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs), mainly built with bamboo, plastic buoys, and plastic netting, to aggregate and catch tropical tuna, deploy 46,000-65,000 dFADs per year in the Pacific Ocean. Some of the major concerns associated with this widespread fishing device are potential entanglement of sea turtles and other marine fauna in dFAD netting; marine debris and pollution; and potential ecological damage via stranding on coral reefs, beaches, and other essential habitats for marine fauna. To assess and quantify the potential connectivity (number of dFADs deployed in an area and arriving in another area) between dFAD deployment areas and important oceanic or coastal habitat of critically endangered leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) and hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) sea turtles in the Pacific Ocean, we conducted passive-drift Lagrangian experiments with simulated dFAD drift profiles and compared them with known important sea turtle areas. Up to 60% of dFADs from equatorial areas were arriving in essential sea turtle habitats. Connectivity was less when only areas where dFADs are currently deployed were used. Our simulations identified potential regions of dFAD interactions with migration and feeding habitats of the east Pacific leatherback turtle in the tropical southeastern Pacific Ocean; coastal habitats of leatherback and hawksbill in the western Pacific (e.g., archipelagic zones of Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands); and foraging habitat of leatherback in a large equatorial area south of Hawaii. Additional research is needed to estimate entanglements of sea turtles with dFADs at sea and to quantify the likely changes in connectivity and distribution of dFADs under new management measures, such as use of alternative nonentangling dFAD designs that biodegrade, or changes in deployment strategies, such as shifting locations.

Simulación de las trayectorias de dispositivos de concentración de peces a la deriva para identificar las interacciones potenciales con las tortugas marinas en peligro de extinción Resumen Los pescadores que usan redes de cerco con dispositivos de concentración de peces a la deriva (dFADs), hechos principalmente con bambú, boyas de plástico y redes de plástico, para concentrar y capturar atún, instalan entre 46,000 y 65,000 dFADs al año en el Océano Pacífico. Algunas de las problemáticas principales asociadas con este dispositivo de pesca de uso extenso son el enredamiento potencial de tortugas marinas y otras especies marinas en las redes de los dFADs; los desechos marinos y la contaminación; y el potencial daño ecológico por el varamiento en los arrecifes de coral, playas y otros hábitats esenciales para la fauna marina. Realizamos experimentos lagrangianos de deriva pasiva con la simulación de perfiles de deriva de los dFADs y los comparamos con áreas conocidas de importancia para las tortugas marinas. Esto fue con el objetivo de evaluar y cuantificar la conectividad potencial (número de dFADs instalados en un área que llegan a otra área) entre las áreas de instalación de dFADs y los hábitats oceánicos o costeros importantes para la tortuga laúd (Dermochelys coriacea) y la tortuga de carey (Eretmochelys imbricata), ambas en peligro crítico de extinción, en el Océano Pacífico. Hasta el 60% de los dFADs de las áreas ecuatoriales llegaron a los hábitats esenciales para las tortugas marinas. La conectividad fue menor sólo cuando se usaron áreas en donde actualmente hay dFADs instalados. Nuestras simulaciones identificaron regiones potenciales de interacción entre los dFADs y los hábitats de migración y alimentación de la tortuga laúd en el sureste tropical del Océano Pacífico; los hábitats costeros de ambas especies en el Pacífico occidental (p. ej.: zonas de archipiélagos en Indonesia, Papúa Nueva Guinea y en las Islas Salomón); y en el hábitat de forrajeo de la tortuga laúd en una gran área ecuatorial al sur de Hawái. Se requiere de mayor investigación para estimar el enredamiento de las tortugas marinas con los dFADs en el mar y para cuantificar los cambios probables en la conectividad y la distribución de los dFADs bajo nuevas medidas de manejo, como el uso alternativo de diseños que eviten el enredamiento y sean biodegradables, o cambios en las estrategias de instalación, como la reubicación.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves.

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.

Socioeconomic impacts of marine heatwaves: Global issues and opportunities.

Extreme climatic events, including marine heatwaves (MHWs), are altering ecosystems globally, often with profound socioeconomic impacts. We examine how MHWs have affected the provision of ecosystem services and evaluate the socioeconomic consequences for human society. Ecological impacts range from harmful algal blooms and mass mortality events to reconfigurations of entire ecosystems, affecting provisioning, habitat, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services globally. Reported economic costs of individual MHW events exceed US$800 million in direct losses or >US$3.1 billion in indirect losses of ecosystem services for multiple years. However, biological responses to MHWs can also increase human-ocean interactions, providing opportunities for coastal societies. Our study provides a global perspective on the far-reaching impacts of MHWs on human societies and highlights the urgent need to develop robust approaches to mitigation and adaptation.

Future changes to the upper ocean Western Boundary Currents across two generations of climate models.

Western Boundary Currents (WBCs) are important for the oceanic transport of heat, dissolved gases and nutrients. They can affect regional climate and strongly influence the dispersion and distribution of marine species. Using state-of-the-art climate models from the latest and previous Climate Model Intercomparison Projects, we evaluate upper ocean circulation and examine future projections, focusing on subtropical and low-latitude WBCs. Despite their coarse resolution, climate models successfully reproduce most large-scale circulation features with ensemble mean transports typically within the range of observational uncertainty, although there is often a large spread across the models and some currents are systematically too strong or weak. Despite considerable differences in model structure, resolution and parameterisations, many currents show highly consistent projected changes across the models. For example, the East Australian Current, Brazil Current and Agulhas Current extensions are projected to intensify, while the Gulf Stream, Indonesian Throughflow and Agulhas Current are projected to weaken. Intermodel differences in most future circulation changes can be explained in part by projected changes in the large-scale surface winds. In moving to the latest model generation, despite structural model advancements, we find little systematic improvement in the simulation of ocean transports nor major differences in the projected changes.

Marine Heatwaves.

Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this variability affect the health of marine ecosystems around the world. The study of marine heatwaves has emerged as a rapidly growing field of research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against a background trend of global ocean warming. This review summarizes the latest physical and statistical understanding of marine heatwaves based on how they are identified, defined, characterized, and monitored through remotely sensed and in situ data sets. We describe the physical mechanisms that cause marine heatwaves, along with their global distribution, variability, and trends. Finally, we discuss current issues in this developing research area, including considerations related to thechoice of climatological baseline periods in defining extremes and how to communicate findings in the context of societal needs.

Drivers and impacts of the most extreme marine heatwaves events.

Prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean, marine heatwaves, can have severe and long-lasting impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and associated services. This study applies a marine heatwave framework to analyse a global sea surface temperature product and identify the most extreme events, based on their intensity, duration and spatial extent. Many of these events have yet to be described in terms of their physical attributes, generation mechanisms, or ecological impacts. Our synthesis identifies commonalities between marine heatwave characteristics and seasonality, links to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, triggering processes and impacts on ocean productivity. The most intense events preferentially occur in summer, when climatological oceanic mixed layers are shallow and winds are weak, but at a time preceding climatological maximum sea surface temperatures. Most subtropical extreme marine heatwaves were triggered by persistent atmospheric high-pressure systems and anomalously weak wind speeds, associated with increased insolation, and reduced ocean heat losses. Furthermore, the most extreme events tended to coincide with reduced chlorophyll-a concentration at low and mid-latitudes. Understanding the importance of the oceanic background state, local and remote drivers and the ocean productivity response from past events are critical steps toward improving predictions of future marine heatwaves and their impacts.

Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period.

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2-3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

Projected slow down of South Indian Ocean circulation.

Using an ensemble of 28 climate models, we examine hindcasts and 'business as usual' future changes to large-scale South Indian Ocean dynamics. We compare model ensemble seasonal-to-annual volume transports to observations and explore drivers of past and future circulation variability and change. Off the west coast of Australia, models consistently project a weakening of the Leeuwin Current and Undercurrent due to reduced onshore flow and downwelling. The reduced onshore flow is related to changes in the alongshore pressure gradient. While the alongshore pressure gradient change is consistent with the Indonesian Throughflow projected weakening, we found no inter-model relationship between these changes. In the south-western Indian Ocean, the models project a robust weakening of the North East and South East Madagascar Currents, Agulhas Current and transport through the Mozambique Channel. This reduced Indian Ocean western boundary flow is partly associated with a weaker Indonesian Throughflow and overturning circulation, where the latter is related to a decrease in the convergence of deep Southern Ocean waters into the Indian Ocean. In contrast to the weakening of other features, the westward flowing Agulhas Current extension south of Africa is projected to strengthen, which is consistent with an intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Environmental versus operational drivers of drifting FAD beaching in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean.

In an effort to increase purse seine fishing efficiency for tropical tunas, over 30,000 drifting Fish Aggregating Devices (dFADs) are deployed every year by fishers in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean (WCPO). The use of dFADs also impacts ecosystems, in particular through marine pollution and dFAD beaching. This paper presents the first estimate of dFAD beaching events in the WCPO (>1300 in 2016-2017) and their distribution. Lagrangian simulations of virtual dFADs, released subject to contrasting deployment distributions, help us determine the relative importance of operational versus environmental drivers of dFADs drifting to beaching areas. The highest levels of beaching, occurring on Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, are likely a result of the prevailing westward oceanic circulation and subsequent local processes driving dFADs towards land. Similarly, high beaching rates in Tuvalu appear to be due to the general circulation of the WCPO. In contrast, beaching in Kiribati Gilbert Islands appear to be more strongly related to dFAD deployment strategy. These findings indicate that reducing beaching events via changes in deployment locations may be difficult. As such, management approaches combining dFAD deployment limits, the use of biodegradable dFADs, recoveries at-sea close to sensitive areas and/or beached dFAD removal should be considered.

Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability.

Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992-2011, that co-occurred with a temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean.

Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century.

Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.

Coupled biophysical global ocean model and molecular genetic analyses identify multiple introductions of cryptogenic species.

The anthropogenic introduction of exotic species is one of the greatest modern threats to marine biodiversity. Yet exotic species introductions remain difficult to predict and are easily misunderstood because knowledge of natural dispersal patterns, species diversity, and biogeography is often insufficient to distinguish between a broadly dispersed natural population and an exotic one. Here we compare a global molecular phylogeny of a representative marine meroplanktonic taxon, the moon-jellyfish Aurelia, with natural dispersion patterns predicted by a global biophysical ocean model. Despite assumed high dispersal ability, the phylogeny reveals many cryptic species and predominantly regional structure with one notable exception: the globally distributed Aurelia sp.1, which, molecular data suggest, may occasionally traverse the Pacific unaided. This possibility is refuted by the ocean model, which shows much more limited dispersion and patterns of distribution broadly consistent with modern biogeographic zones, thus identifying multiple introductions worldwide of this cryptogenic species. This approach also supports existing evidence that (i) the occurrence in Hawaii of Aurelia sp. 4 and other native Indo-West Pacific species with similar life histories is most likely due to anthropogenic translocation, and (ii) there may be a route for rare natural colonization of northeast North America by the European marine snail Littorina littorea, whose status as endemic or exotic is unclear.