Treatment success rate among adult pulmonary tuberculosis patients in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To summarise treatment success rate (TSR) among adult bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (BC-PTB) patients in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Google Scholar and Web of Science electronic databases for eligible studies published in the decade between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2018. Two independent reviewers extracted data and disagreements were resolved by consensus with a third reviewer. We used random-effects model to pool TSR in Stata V.15, and presented results in a forest plot with 95% CIs and predictive intervals. We assessed heterogeneity with Cochrane's (Q) test and quantified with I-squared values. We checked publication bias with funnel plots and Egger's test. We performed subgroup, meta-regression, sensitivity and cumulative meta-analyses. SETTING: SSA. PARTICIPANTS: Adults 15 years and older, new and retreatment BC-PTB patients. OUTCOMES: TSR measured as the proportion of smear-positive TB cases registered under directly observed therapy in a given year that successfully completed treatment, either with bacteriologic evidence of success (cured) or without (treatment completed). RESULTS: 31 studies (2 cross-sectional, 1 case-control, 17 retrospective cohort, 6 prospective cohort and 5 randomised controlled trials) involving 18 194 participants were meta-analysed. 28 of the studies had good quality data. Egger's test indicated no publication bias, rather small study effect. The pooled TSR was 76.2% (95% CI 72.5% to 79.8%; 95% prediction interval, 50.0% to 90.0%, I2 statistics=96.9%). No single study influenced the meta-analytical results or conclusions. Between 2008 and 2018, a gradual but steady decline in TSR occurred in SSA but without statistically significant time trend variation (p=0.444). The optimum TSR of 90% was not achieved. CONCLUSION: Over the past decade, TSR was heterogeneous and suboptimal in SSA, suggesting context and country-specific strategies are needed to end the TB epidemic. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018099151.

Protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis of treatment success rate among adult patients with tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of mortality globally. Despite being curable, treatment success rates (TSRs) among adult patients with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB (BC-PTB) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) differ considerably. This protocol documents and presents an explicit plan of a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise TSR among adult patients with BC-PTB in SSA. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers will search and extract data from MEDLINE, EMBASE, Ovid, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Web of Science electronic databases. Observational and interventional studies published between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2018, involving adult patients with BC-PTB will be eligible. Data abstraction disagreements will be resolved by consensus with a third reviewer, while percentage agreement computed with kappa statistics. TSR will be computed with Metaprop, a Stata command for pooling proportions using DerSimonian and Laird random effects model and presented in a forest plot with corresponding 95% CIs. Heterogeneity between included studies will be assessed with Cochran's Q test and quantified with I-squared values. Publication bias will be evaluated with funnel plots and tested with Egger's weighted regression. Time trends in TSR will be calculated with cumulative meta-analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No ethical approval will be needed because data from previous published studies in which informed consent was obtained by primary investigators will be retrieved and analysed. We will prepare a manuscript for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and present the results at conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018099151.