Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution- Projection of the under-5 mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) in South Asia.

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a leading health risk factor for children under- 5 years, especially in developing countries. South Asia is a PM2.5 hotspot, where climate change, a potential factor affecting PM2.5 pollution, adds a major challenge. However, limited evidence is available on under-5 mortality attributable to PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. This study aimed to project under-5 mortality attributable to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 under seven air pollution and climate change mitigation scenarios in South Asia. We used a concentration-risk function obtained from a previous review to project under-5 mortality attributable to ambient PM2.5. With a theoretical minimum risk exposure level of 2.4 µg/m3, this risk function was linked to gridded annual PM2.5 concentrations from atmospheric modeling to project under-5 mortality from 2010 to 2049 under different climate change mitigation scenarios. The scenarios were developed from the Aim/Endues global model based on end-of-pipe (removing the emission of air pollutants at the source, EoP) and 2 °C target measures. Our results showed that, in 2010-2014, about 306.8 thousand under-5 deaths attributable to PM2.5 occurred in South Asia under the Reference (business as usual) scenario. The number of deaths was projected to increase in 2045-2049 by 36.6% under the same scenario and 7.7% under the scenario where EoP measures would be partially implemented by developing countries (EoPmid), and was projected to decrease under other scenarios, with the most significant decrease (81.2%) under the scenario where EoP measures would be fully enhanced by all countries along with the measures to achieve 2 °C target (EoPmaxCCSBLD) across South Asia. Country-specific projections of under-5 mortality varied by country. The current emission control strategy would not be sufficient to reduce the number of deaths in South Asia. Robust climate change mitigation and air pollution control policy implementation is required.

Associations between residential greenness and air pollution and the incident metabolic syndrome in a Thai worker cohort.

Increasing air pollution and decreasing exposure to greenness may contribute to the metabolic syndrome (MetS). We examined associations between long-term exposure to residential greenness and air pollution and MetS incidence in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand. Data from 1369 employees (aged 52-71 years) from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand cohort from 2002 to 2017 were analyzed. The greenness level within 500 m of each participant's residence was measured using the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The kriging approach was used to generate the average concentration of each air pollutant (PM10, CO, SO2, NO2, and O3) at the sub-district level. The average long-term exposure to air pollution and greenness for each participant was calculated over the same period of person-time. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the greenness-air pollution-MetS associations. The adjusted hazard ratio of MetS was 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32, 1.53), 1.22 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.30), and 2.0 (95% CI: 1.82, 2.20), per interquartile range increase in PM10 (9.5 µg/m3), SO2 (0.9 ppb), and CO (0.3 ppm), respectively. We found no clear association between NDVI or EVI and the incidence of MetS. On the contrary, the incident MetS was positively associated with NDVI and EVI for participants exposed to PM10 at concentrations more than 50 µg/m3. In summary, the incidence of MetS was positively associated with long-term exposure to air pollution. In areas with high levels of air pollution, green spaces may not benefit health outcomes.

Residential greenness and kidney function: A cohort study of Thai employees.

Higher residential greenness is associated with a lower risk of chronic kidney disease, but evidence on the association between greenness exposure and kidney function has not been conducted. Using cohort data from Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) employees, we investigated the association between long-term exposure to greenness and kidney function using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), Thailand. We analyzed data from 2022 EGAT workers (aged 25-55 years at baseline) from 2009 to 2019. The level of greenness was calculated using the satellite-derived Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). From 2008 to 2019, the average concentration of each air pollutant (PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO) at the sub-district level in BMR was generated using the Kriging method. Long-term exposure for each participant was defined as the 1-year average concentrations before the date of the physical examination in 2009, 2014, and 2019. We employed linear mixed effects models to evaluate associations of NDVI and EVI with eGFR. The robustness of the results was also tested by including air pollutants in the models. After relevant confounders were controlled, the interquartile range increase in NDVI was associated with higher eGFR [1.03% (95%CI: 0.33, 1.74)]. After PM10 and SO2 were included in the models, the associations between NDVI and eGFR became weaker. The additions of O3, NO2, and CO strengthened the associations between them. In contrast, we did not find any association between EVI and eGFR. In conclusion, there was a positive association between NDVI and eGFR, but not for EVI. Air pollutants had a significant impact on the relationship between NDVI and eGFR. Additional research is needed to duplicate this result in various settings and populations to confirm our findings.

Association between Long-Term Ambient PM2.5 Exposure and under-5 Mortality: A Scoping Review.

Studies have established a link between exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) and mortality in infants and children. However, few studies have explored the association between post-birth exposure to PM2.5 and under-5 mortality. We conducted a scoping review to identify relevant epidemiological evidence on the association between post-birth ambient PM2.5 exposure and under-5 mortality. We searched PubMed and Web of Science for articles published between 1970 and the end of January 2022 that explicitly linked ambient PM2.5 and under-5 mortality by considering the study area, study design, exposure window, and child age. Information was extracted on the study characteristics, exposure assessment and duration, outcomes, and effect estimates/findings. Ultimately, 13 studies on infant and child mortality were selected. Only four studies measured the effect of post-birth exposure to PM2.5 on under-5 mortality. Only one cohort study mentioned a positive association between post-birth ambient PM2.5 exposure and under-5 mortality. The results of this scoping review highlight the need for extensive research in this field, given that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 is a major global health risk and child mortality remains high in some countries.

Association between greenness and cardiovascular risk factors: Results from a large cohort study in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: The risk of cardiovascular diseases may be reduced by residing in green environments. However, there are relatively few longitudinal cohort studies, especially in Southeast Asia, that focused on the health benefits of long-term greenness exposure in young adults. The present study examined the association between long-term exposure to residential greenness and self-reported morbidities in participants of the Thai Cohort Study (TCS) in Thailand from 2005 to 2013. METHODS: The self-reported outcomes, including high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, and diabetes, were reported in 2005, 2009, and 2013, where the study participants provided the exact year of disease occurrence. Greenness was assessed by the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), with a spatial resolution of 250 m. Long-term exposure to NDVI and EVI of each participant's sub-district was averaged over the period of person-time. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between greenness and health outcomes. Associations with self-reported morbidity were measured using hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in NDVI and EVI. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounders, we observed that an IQR increase in NDVI was associated with lower incidence of high blood pressure (HR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.97) and high blood cholesterol (HR = 0.89, 95%CI: 0.87, 0.92), but not significantly associated with diabetes (HR = 0.93, 95%CI: 0.85, 1.01). EVI was also inversely associated with self-reported high blood pressure (HR = 0.92, 95%CI: 0.88, 0.96), high blood cholesterol (HR = 0.89, 95%CI: 0.87, 0.91), and diabetes (HR = 0.92, 95%CI: 0.85, 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to residential greenness was inversely associated with self-reported high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, and diabetes in participants of TCS. Our study provides evidence that greenness exposure may reduce cardiovascular disease risk factors in adult population.

Long-term trends in mortality risk associated with short-term exposure to air pollution in 10 Japanese cities between 1977 and 2015.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Short-term associations between air pollution and mortality have been well reported in Japan, but the historical changes in mortality risk remain unknown. We examined temporal changes in the mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to four criteria air pollutants in selected Japanese cities. METHODS: We collected daily mortality data for non-accidental causes (n = 5,748,206), cardiovascular (n = 1,938,743) and respiratory diseases (n = 777,266), and air pollutants (sulfur dioxide [SO2], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], suspended particulate matter [SPM], and oxidants [Ox]) in 10 cities from 1977 to 2015. We performed two-stage analysis with 5-year stratification to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality per 10-unit increase in the 2-day moving average of air pollutant concentrations. In the first stage, city-specific associations were assessed using a quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model. In the second stage, city-specific estimates were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Linear trend and ratio of relative risks (RRR) were computed to examine temporal changes. RESULTS: When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO2, NO2, and SPM (14.2-2.3 ppb, 29.4-17.5 ppb, 52.1-20.6 µg/m3, respectively) but increased for Ox (29.1-39.1 ppb) over the study period. We found evidence of a negative linear trend in the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with SPM across sub-periods. However, the risks of non-accidental and respiratory mortality per 10-unit increase in SPM concentration were significantly higher in the most recent period than in the earliest period. Other gaseous pollutants did not show such temporal risk change. The risks posed by these pollutants were slightly to moderately heterogeneous in the different cities. CONCLUSIONS: The mortality risks associated with short-term exposure to SPM changed, with different trends by cause of death, in 10 cities over 39 years whereas the risks for other gaseous pollutants were relatively stable.

Daily temperature effects on under-five mortality in a tropical climate country and the role of local characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and its subsequent effects on temperature have raised global public health concerns. Although numerous epidemiological studies have shown the adverse health effects of temperature, the association remains unclear for children aged below five years old and those in tropical climate regions. METHODS: We conducted a two-stage time-stratified case-crossover study to examine the association between temperature and under-five mortality, spanning the period from 2014 to 2018 across all six regions in Malaysia. In the first stage, we estimated region-specific temperature-mortality associations using a conditional Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models. We used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool the region-specific estimates and examine the potential role of local characteristics in the association, which includes geographical information, demographics, socioeconomic status, long-term temperature metrics, and healthcare access by region. RESULTS: Temperature in Malaysia ranged from 22 °C to 31 °C, with a mean of 27.6 °C. No clear seasonality was observed in under-five mortality. We found no strong evidence of the association between temperature and under-five mortality, with an "M-" shaped exposure-response curve. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) was identified at 27.1 °C. Among several local characteristics, only education level and hospital bed rates reduced the residual heterogeneity in the association. However, effect modification by these variables were not significant. CONCLUSION: This study suggests a null association between temperature and under-five mortality in Malaysia, which has a tropical climate. The "M-" shaped pattern suggests that under-fives may be vulnerable to temperature changes, even with a small temperature change in reference to the MMT. However, the weak risks with a large uncertainty at extreme temperatures remained inconclusive. Potential roles of education level and hospital bed rate were statistically inconclusive.

Effect of a vegetation fire event ban on hospital visits for respiratory diseases in Upper Northern Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Upper Northern Thailand (UNT) has been episodically affected by air pollution from vegetation burning, which causes adverse respiratory health effects. However, no study has evaluated the effect of regulatory actions to prohibit vegetation burning on respiratory morbidity. We examined the effect of a burning ban enforced in May 2016 on hospital visits for respiratory diseases in UNT. METHODS: This study used data from eight provinces in UNT. Analyses were conducted for January to April of 2014-2016 (before ban enforcement) and January to April of 2017-2018 (after ban enforcement). Particulate matter of 10 microns in diameter or smaller (PM10) concentrations, numbers of satellite fire hotspots and age-standardized rates of hospital visits for respiratory diseases before and after ban enforcement were compared. The effect of the ban on hospital visits for respiratory diseases was evaluated using an interrupted time-series analysis controlled for season-specific temporal trends, day of week, public holiday, temperature, relative humidity, number of hospitals and offset population, with gastrointestinal diseases as a negative control. A meta-analysis was performed to pool province-specific effect estimates. RESULTS: The daily average PM10 concentration and the number of fire hotspots decreased after ban enforcement in all provinces in UNT, with percent changes ranging from 5.3 to 34.3% and 14.3 to 81.5%, respectively. The adjusted pooled effect estimates of hospital visits for respiratory diseases decreased by 9.1% (95% CI: 5.1, 12.9), whereas a null association was observed for gastrointestinal diseases. CONCLUSION: The burning ban had a positive impact on both air pollution levels and rates of hospital visits for respiratory diseases in UNT.

Long-term air pollution exposure and decreased kidney function: A longitudinal cohort study in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand from 2002 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Kidney dysfunction is considered a cardiovascular risk factor. However, few longitudinal studies have examined the effects of air pollution on kidney function. We evaluated associations between long-term air pollution exposure and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using data from a cohort of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) study in Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand. METHODS: This longitudinal study included 1839 subjects (aged 52-71 years in 2002) from the EGAT1 cohort study during 2002-2012. eGFR, based on creatinine, was measured in 2002, 2007, and 2012. Annual mean concentrations of air pollutants (i.e., particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)) prior to a measurement of creatinine were assessed with the ordinary kriging method. Mixed-effect linear regression models were used to assess associations between air pollutants and eGFR, while controlling for potential covariates. eGFR values are expressed as percent change per interquartile range (IQR) increments of each pollutant. RESULTS: Lower eGFR was associated with higher concentrations of PM10 (-1.99%, 95% confidence interval (CI): -3.33, -0.63), SO2 (-4.89%, 95%CI: -6.69, -3.07), and CO (-0.97%, 95%CI: -1.96, 0.03). However, after adjusting for temperature, relative humidity, PM10, and SO2, no significant association was observed between CO and eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the hypothesis that long-term exposure to high concentrations of PM10 and SO2 is associated with the progression of kidney dysfunction in subjects of the EGAT cohort study.

Investigation of association between smoke haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia, accounting for time lag, duration and intensity.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the association between smoke haze (hereafter 'haze') and adverse health effects have increased in recent years due to extreme weather conditions and the increased occurrence of vegetation fires. The possible adverse health effects on under-five children (U5Y) is especially worrying due to their vulnerable condition. Despite continuous repetition of serious haze occurrence in Southeast Asia, epidemiological studies in this region remained scarce. Furthermore, no study had examined the association accounting for three important aspects (time lag, duration and intensity) concurrently. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the association between haze and U5Y mortality in Malaysia, considering time lag, duration and intensity of exposure. METHODS: We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study using a generalized additive model to examine the U5Y mortality related to haze in 12 districts in Malaysia, spanning from 2014 to 2016. A 'haze day' was characterized by intensity [based on concentrations of particulate matter (PM)] and duration (continuity of haze occurrence, up to 3 days). RESULTS: We observed the highest but non-significant odds ratios (ORs) of U5Y mortality at lag 4 of Intensity-3. Lag patterns revealed the possibility of higher acuteness at prolonged and intensified haze. Stratifying the districts by the 95th-percentile of PM distribution, the 'low' category demonstrated marginal positive association at Intensity-2 Duration-3 [OR: 1.210 (95% confidence interval: 1.000, 1.464)]. CONCLUSIONS: We found a null association between haze and U5Y mortality. The different lag patterns of the association observed over different duration and intensity suggest consideration of these aspects in future studies.

Effects of long-term air pollution exposure on ankle-brachial index and cardio-ankle vascular index: A longitudinal cohort study using data from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand study.

BACKGROUND: Ankle-brachial index (ABI) and cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) are surrogate measures of atherosclerosis based on the functional performance of vessels, and are highly related to cardiovascular events. However, only a few longitudinal studies have been conducted on their associations with long-term air pollution exposure. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether long-term air pollution exposure is associated with ABI and CAVI in workers of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). METHODS: This longitudinal study included 1261 participants (age range, 57-76 years as of 2007) of the EGAT study (2007-2017). ABI and CAVI were measured in 2007, 2012, and 2017. Annual mean concentrations of particulate matter ≤10 µm in diameter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO) were estimated by ordinary kriging using data from 22 background and 7 traffic monitoring stations in BMR between 2002 and 2017. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess associations between air pollution (expressed as 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year average concentration) and ABI and CAVI (expressed as percent changes per interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO). We also applied the mixed-effect ordinal logistic models to calculate odds ratios (ORs) of having high or moderate CAVI per an IQR increase in air pollution. RESULTS: After controlling for potential confounders, 1-year average CO was negatively associated with ABI, but not significantly (-0.48%, 95% CI: -1.03, 0.07). Three-year average NO2 was positively associated with CAVI (6.67%, 95% CI: 0.21, 13.1). In contrast, 1-year average PM10 was inversely associated with CAVI although the association was not significant. Although not significantly, 1-year average NO2 and CO were positively associated with prevalence of high or moderate CAVI. CONCLUSIONS: Although not statistically significant, long-term NO2 and CO exposure was associated with ABI and CAVI in the participants of the EGAT study.

Long-term air pollution exposure and self-reported morbidity: A longitudinal analysis from the Thai cohort study (TCS).

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown the health effects of air pollutants, especially in China, North American and Western European countries. But longitudinal cohort studies focused on health effects of long-term air pollution exposure are still limited in Southeast Asian countries where sources of air pollution, weather conditions, and demographic characteristics are different. The present study examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and self-reported morbidities in participants of the Thai cohort study (TCS) in Bangkok metropolitan region (BMR), Thailand. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study was conducted for 9 years from 2005 to 2013. Self-reported morbidities in this study included high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, and diabetes. Air pollution data were obtained from the Thai government Pollution Control Department (PCD). Particles with diameters ≤10 µm (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO) exposures were estimated with ordinary kriging method using 22 background and 7 traffic monitoring stations in BMR during 2005-2013. Long-term exposure periods to air pollution for each subject was averaged as the same period of person-time. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between long-term air pollution exposure with self-reported high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, diabetes. Results of self-reported morbidity were presented as hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM10, O3, NO2, SO2, and CO. RESULTS: After controlling for potential confounders, we found that an IQR increase in PM10 was significantly associated with self-reported high blood pressure (HR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.23) and high blood cholesterol (HR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.12), but not with diabetes (HR = 1.05, 95%CI: 0.91, 1.21). SO2 was also positively associated with self-reported high blood pressure (HR = 1.22, 95%CI: 1.08, 1.38), high blood cholesterol (HR = 1.20, 95%CI: 1.11, 1.30), and diabetes (HR = 1.21, 95%CI: 0.92, 1.60). Moreover, we observed a positive association between CO and self-reported high blood pressure (HR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.00, 1.15), but not for other diseases. However, self-reported morbidities were not associated with O3 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially for PM10 and SO2 was associated with self-reported high blood pressure, high blood cholesterol, and diabetes in subjects of TCS. Our study supports that exposure to air pollution increases cardiovascular disease risk factors for younger population.

Health effects of PM2.5 sources on children's allergic and respiratory symptoms in Fukuoka, Japan.

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a potential aggravating factor for respiratory and allergic diseases. However, which PM2.5 sources are associated with such diseases remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association of PM2.5 sources with allergic and respiratory symptoms in schoolchildren. PM2.5 samples were collected in Fukuoka during the spring in 2014 and 2015. Asian dust was observed in 2014. Ion components, elemental components, and organic components were analyzed. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was conducted to calculate PM2.5 concentrations from each source. Mixed logistic regression analysis with a random intercept for each schoolchild was performed to evaluate the association of components and sources with symptoms. Among 2317 schoolchildren, the mean prevalence was 28.9%, 23.6%, 11.2%, and 11.4% for lower respiratory, nasal, ocular, and skin symptoms, respectively. PMF identified the following six PM2.5 sources "Secondary sulfate and coal combustion", "Secondary nitrate", "Heavy oil combustion", "Sea salt", "Soil" and "Traffic emission". An interquartile range of PM2.5 mass was associated with nasal (Odds ratios 1.08, 95% confidence interval [1.03, 1.13]), ocular (1.10, [1.04, 1.16]), and skin symptoms (1.13, [1.06, 1.20]). Among the source factors, "Heavy oil combustion" was significantly associated with nasal symptom (1.11, [1.05, 1.18]) while "Sea salt" was associated with nasal (1.06, [1.02, 1.11]) and skin (1.073, [1.01, 1.14]) symptoms. We found "Soil", which might be affected by Asian dust, was associated with ocular (1.07, [1.03, 1.10]) and skin (1.05, [1.01, 1.08]) symptoms. Further studies in other seasons or places are needed to clarify the influence of PM2.5 sources on children's health.