Negative Coupling: The Coincidence of Premating Isolating Barriers Can Reduce Reproductive Isolation.

Speciation can be mediated by a variety of reproductive barriers, and the interaction among different barriers has often been shown to enhance overall reproductive isolation, a process referred to as "coupling." Here, we analyze a population genetics model to study the establishment of linkage disequilibrium (LD) among loci involved in multiple premating barriers, an aspect that has received little theoretical attention to date. We consider a simple genetic framework underlying two distinct premating barriers, each encoded by a preference locus and its associated mating trait locus. We show that their interaction can lead to a decrease in overall reproductive isolation relative to a situation with a single barrier, a process we call "negative coupling." More specifically, in our model, negative coupling results either from sexual selection that reduces divergence at all loci, or from reduced LD that occurs because the presence of many females with "mismatched" preferences causes the mating success of recombinant males to become high. Interestingly, the latter effect may even cause LD among preference loci to become negative when recombination rates among loci are low. We conclude that coincident reproductive barriers may not necessarily reinforce each other, and that the underlying loci may not necessarily develop a positive association.

Coupling of Barriers to Gene Exchange: Causes and Consequences.

Coupling has emerged as a concept to describe the transition from differentiated populations to newly evolved species through the strengthening of reproductive isolation. However, the term has been used in multiple ways, and relevant processes have sometimes not been clearly distinguished. Here, we synthesize existing uses of the concept of coupling and find three main perspectives: (1) coupling as the build-up of linkage disequilibrium among loci underlying barriers to gene exchange, (2) coupling as the build-up of genome-wide linkage disequilibrium, and (3) coupling as the process generating a coincidence of distinct barrier effects. We compare and contrast these views, show the diverse processes involved and the complexity of the relationships among recombination, linkage disequilibrium, and reproductive isolation, and, finally, we emphasize how each perspective can guide new directions in speciation research. Although the importance of coupling for evolutionary divergence and speciation is well established, many theoretical and empirical questions remain unanswered.

Host learning selects for the coevolution of greater egg mimicry and narrower antiparasitic egg-rejection thresholds.

Egg rejection is an effective and widespread antiparasitic defense to eliminate foreign eggs from the nests of hosts of brood parasitic birds. Several lines of observational and critical experimental evidence support a role for learning by hosts in the recognition of parasitic versus own eggs; specifically, individual hosts that have had prior or current experience with brood parasitism are more likely to reject foreign eggs. Here we confirm experimentally the role of prior experience in altering subsequent egg-rejection decisions in the American robin Turdus migratorius, a free-living host species of an obligate brood parasite, the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater. We then model the coevolutionary trajectory of both the extent of mimicry of host eggs by parasitic eggs and the host's egg rejection thresholds in response to an increasing role of learning in egg recognition. Critically, with more learning, we see the evolution of both narrower (more discriminating) rejection thresholds in hosts and greater egg mimicry in parasites. Increasing host clutch size (number of eggs/nest) and increasing parasite load (parasitism rate) also have narrowing effects on the egg-rejection threshold. Together, these results suggest that learning from prior experience with egg rejection may play an important role in the coevolution of egg-mimetic lineages of brood parasites and the refined egg rejection defenses of hosts.

Inferred Attractiveness: A generalized mechanism for sexual selection that can maintain variation in traits and preferences over time.

Sexual selection by mate choice is a powerful force that can lead to evolutionary change, and models of why females choose particular mates are central to understanding its effects. Predominant mate choice theories assume preferences are determined solely by genetic inheritance, an assumption still lacking widespread support. Moreover, preferences often vary among individuals or populations, fail to correspond with conspicuous male traits, or change with context, patterns not predicted by dominant models. Here, we propose a new model that explains this mate choice complexity with one general hypothesized mechanism, "Inferred Attractiveness." In this model, females acquire mating preferences by observing others' choices and use context-dependent information to infer which traits are attractive. They learn to prefer the feature of a chosen male that most distinguishes him from other available males. Over generations, this process produces repeated population-level switches in preference and maintains male trait variation. When viability selection is strong, Inferred Attractiveness produces population-wide adaptive preferences superficially resembling "good genes." However, it results in widespread preference variation or nonadaptive preferences under other predictable circumstances. By casting the female brain as the central selective agent, Inferred Attractiveness captures novel and dynamic aspects of sexual selection and reconciles inconsistencies between mate choice theory and observed behavior.

Evolutionary rescue under demographic and environmental stochasticity.

Populations suffer two types of stochasticity: demographic stochasticity, from sampling error in offspring number, and environmental stochasticity, from temporal variation in the growth rate. By modelling evolution through phenotypic selection following an abrupt environmental change, we investigate how genetic and demographic dynamics, as well as effects on population survival of the genetic variance and of the strength of stabilizing selection, differ under the two types of stochasticity. We show that population survival probability declines sharply with stronger stabilizing selection under demographic stochasticity, but declines more continuously when environmental stochasticity is strengthened. However, the genetic variance that confers the highest population survival probability differs little under demographic and environmental stochasticity. Since the influence of demographic stochasticity is stronger when population size is smaller, a slow initial decline of genetic variance, which allows quicker evolution, is important for population persistence. In contrast, the influence of environmental stochasticity is population-size-independent, so higher initial fitness becomes important for survival under strong environmental stochasticity. The two types of stochasticity interact in a more than multiplicative way in reducing the population survival probability. Our work suggests the importance of explicitly distinguishing and measuring the forms of stochasticity during evolutionary rescue.

Predation drives complex eco-evolutionary dynamics in sexually selected traits.

Predation plays a role in preventing the evolution of ever more complicated sexual displays, because such displays often increase an individual's predation risk. Sexual selection theory, however, omits a key feature of predation in modeling costs to sexually selected traits: Predation is density dependent. As a result of this density dependence, predator-prey dynamics should feed back into the evolution of sexual displays, which, in turn, feeds back into predator-prey dynamics. Here, we develop both population and quantitative genetic models of sexual selection that explicitly link the evolution of sexual displays with predator-prey dynamics. Our primary result is that predation can drive eco-evolutionary cycles in sexually selected traits. We also show that mechanistically modeling the cost to sexual displays as predation leads to novel outcomes such as the maintenance of polymorphism in sexual displays and alters ecological dynamics by muting prey cycles. These results suggest predation as a potential mechanism to maintain variation in sexual displays and underscore that short-term studies of sexual display evolution may not accurately predict long-run dynamics. Further, they demonstrate that a common verbal model (that predation limits sexual displays) with widespread empirical support can result in unappreciated, complex dynamics due to the density-dependent nature of predation.

Indiscriminate Mating and the Coevolution of Sex Discrimination and Sexual Signals.

AbstractThe presence of same-sex sexual behavior across the animal kingdom is often viewed as unexpected. One explanation for its prevalence in some taxa is indiscriminate mating-a strategy wherein an individual does not attempt to determine the sex of its potential partner before attempting copulation. Indiscriminate mating has been argued to be the ancestral mode of sexual reproduction and can also be an optimal strategy given search costs of choosiness. Less attention has been paid to the fact that sex discrimination requires not just the attempt to differentiate between the sexes but also some discernible difference (a signal or cue) that can be detected. To address this, we extend models of mating behavior to consider the coevolution of sex discrimination and sexual signals. We find that under a wide range of parameters, including some with relatively minor costs, indiscriminate mating and the absence of sexual signals will be an evolutionary end point. Furthermore, the absence of both sex discrimination and sexual signals is always evolutionarily stable. These results suggest that an observable difference between the sexes likely arose as a by-product of the evolution of different sexes, allowing discrimination to evolve.

The effectiveness of pseudomagic traits in promoting premating isolation.

Upon the secondary contact of populations, speciation with gene flow is greatly facilitated when the same pleiotropic loci are both subject to divergent ecological selection and induce non-random mating, leading to loci with this fortuitous combination of functions being referred to as 'magic trait' loci. We use a population genetics model to examine whether 'pseudomagic trait' complexes, composed of physically linked loci fulfilling these two functions, are as efficient in promoting premating isolation as magic traits. We specifically measure the evolution of choosiness, which controls the strength of assortative mating. We show that, surprisingly, pseudomagic trait complexes, and to a lesser extent also physically unlinked loci, can lead to the evolution of considerably stronger assortative mating preferences than do magic traits, provided polymorphism at the involved loci is maintained. This is because assortative mating preferences are generally favoured when there is a risk of producing maladapted recombinants, as occurs with non-magic trait complexes but not with magic traits (since pleiotropy precludes recombination). Contrary to current belief, magic traits may not be the most effective genetic architecture for promoting strong premating isolation. Therefore, distinguishing between magic traits and pseudomagic trait complexes is important when inferring their role in premating isolation. This calls for further fine-scale genomic research on speciation genes.

The Fisher process of sexual selection with the coevolution of preference strength.

Sexual selection has a rich history of mathematical models that consider why preferences favor one trait phenotype over another (for population genetic models) or what specific trait value is preferred (for quantitative genetic models). Less common is exploration of the evolution of choosiness or preference strength: i.e., by how much a trait is preferred. We examine both population and quantitative genetic models of the evolution of preferences, specifically developing "baseline models" of the evolution of preference strength during the Fisher process. Using a population genetic approach, we find selection for stronger and stronger preferences when trait variation is maintained by mutation. However, this force is quite weak and likely to be swamped by drift in moderately-sized populations. In a quantitative genetic model, unimodal preferences will generally not evolve to be increasingly strong without bounds when male traits are under stabilizing viability selection, but evolve to extreme values when viability selection is directional. Our results highlight that different shapes of fitness and preference functions lead to qualitatively different trajectories for preference strength evolution ranging from no evolution to extreme evolution of preference strength.

Better to Divorce than Be Widowed: The Role of Mortality and Environmental Heterogeneity in the Evolution of Divorce.

AbstractDespite widespread interest in the evolution and implications of monogamy across taxa, less attention-especially theoretical-has been paid toward understanding the evolution of divorce (ending a socially monogamous pairing to find a new partner). Here, we develop a model of the evolution of divorce by females in a heterogeneous environment, where females assess territory quality as a result of their breeding success. Divorce results in females leaving poor territories disproportionally more often than good territories, while death of a partner occurs independent of territory quality, giving an advantage to divorce. Increasing environmental heterogeneity, a decreasing benefit of pair experience, and moderate survival rates favor the evolution of higher divorce rates, even in the absence of variance in individual quality and knowledge of available territories. Imperfect information about territory quality constrains the evolution of divorce, typically favoring divorce strategies that remain faithful to one's partner whenever successful reproduction occurs. Our model shows how feedbacks between divorce, widowhood, and the availability of territories are intricately linked in determining the evolutionary advantage of divorce. We detail testable predictions about populations that should be expected to divorce at high rates.

The ecological stage maintains preference differentiation and promotes speciation.

Influential models of speciation by sexual selection posit either a single shared preference for a universal display, expressed only when males are locally adapted and hence in high condition, or that shared loci evolve population-specific alleles for displays and preferences. However, many closely related species instead show substantial differences across categorically different traits. We present a model of secondary contact whereby females maintain preferences for distinct displays that indicate both male condition and their match to distinct environments, fostering reproductive isolation among diverging species. This occurs even with search costs and with independent preference loci targeting independent displays. Such preferences can also evolve from standing variation. Divergence occurs because condition-dependent display and female preference depend on local ecology, and females obtain different benefits of choice. Given the ubiquity of ecological differences among environments, our model could help explain the evolution of striking radiations of displays seen in nature.

The evolution of age-specific choosiness and reproductive isolation in a model with overlapping generations.

The strength of mate choice (choosiness) often varies with age, but theory to understand this variation is scarce. Additionally, theory has investigated the evolution of choosiness in speciation scenarios but has ignored that most organisms have overlapping generations. We investigate whether speciation can result in variation of choosiness with age, and whether such variation can in turn affect speciation. We develop a population-genetic model of the evolution of choosiness in organisms with overlapping generations in the context of secondary contact between two divergent populations. We assume that females choose males that match their phenotype, such that choosiness evolves by sexual selection. We demonstrate that speciation can result in the evolution of age-specific choosiness when the mating trait is under divergent ecological selection and age is not used as a mating cue. The cause of this result is that allele frequencies differ between choosy females and males. However, we find that the evolution of age-specific choosiness does not affect the overall level of reproductive isolation compared to a case without age-structure, supporting previous speciation theory. Overall, our results connect life history and speciation theory, and the mechanisms that we highlight have implications for the understanding of the role of sex-specific selection in the evolution of choosiness.

The evolution of flower longevity in unpredictable pollination environments.

Pollination requires a flower to remain open for long enough to allow for the arrival of pollinators. However, maintaining flowers costs energy and resources. Therefore, flower longevity, the length of time a flower remains viable, is critical for the outcome of plant reproduction. Although previous studies showed that the evolution of flower longevity depends on the rates of pollen deposition and removal, whether plants should increase or decrease flower life span when the pollination environment is unpredictable has not been explored. Moreover, the common hypothesis that an unpredictable pollination environment should select for increased flower longevity may be too simplistic since there is no distinction drawn between the effects of spatial and temporal variation. Adopting evolutionary game theory, we investigate the evolution of flower longevity under three types of variation: spatial heterogeneity, daily fluctuations within a flowering season and yearly fluctuations between flowering seasons. We find that spatial heterogeneity often selects for a shorter flower lifespan, while temporal fluctuations of fitness accrual rates at both daily and yearly time scales tends to favour greater longevity, although daily and yearly fluctuations have somewhat different effects. However, the presence of correlation between female and male fitness accrual rates seems to have no effect on flower longevity. Our work suggests that explicit measurements of spatial and temporal variation in both female and male functions may provide a better understanding of the evolution of flower longevity and reproduction.

Homage to Felsenstein 1981, or why are there so few/many species?

If there are no constraints on the process of speciation, then the number of species might be expected to match the number of available niches and this number might be indefinitely large. One possible constraint is the opportunity for allopatric divergence. In 1981, Felsenstein used a simple and elegant model to ask if there might also be genetic constraints. He showed that progress towards speciation could be described by the build-up of linkage disequilibrium among divergently selected loci and between these loci and those contributing to other forms of reproductive isolation. Therefore, speciation is opposed by recombination, because it tends to break down linkage disequilibria. Felsenstein then introduced a crucial distinction between "two-allele" models, which are subject to this effect, and "one-allele" models, which are free from the recombination constraint. These fundamentally important insights have been the foundation for both empirical and theoretical studies of speciation ever since.

Same-sex sexual behaviour and selection for indiscriminate mating.

The widespread presence of same-sex sexual behaviour (SSB) has long been thought to pose an evolutionary conundrum, as participants in SSB suffer the cost of failing to reproduce after expending the time and energy to find a mate. The potential for SSB to occur as part of an optimal strategy has received less attention, although indiscriminate sexual behaviour may be the ancestral mode of sexual reproduction. Here, we build a simple model of sexual reproduction and create a theoretical framework for the evolution of indiscriminate sexual behaviour. We provide strong support for the hypothesis that SSB can be maintained by selection for indiscriminate sexual behaviour, by showing that indiscriminate mating is the optimal strategy under a wide range of conditions. Further, our model suggests that the conditions that most strongly favour indiscriminate mating were probably present at the origin of sexual behaviour. These findings have implications not only for the evolutionary origins of SSB, but also for the evolution of discriminate sexual behaviour across the animal kingdom.

The effectiveness of pseudomagic traits in promoting divergence and enhancing local adaptation.

"Magic traits," in which the same trait is both under divergent ecological selection and forms the basis of assortative mating, have been sought after due to their supposed unique ability to promote divergence with gene flow. Here, we ask how unique magic traits are, by exploring whether a tightly linked complex of a locus under divergent selection and a locus that acts as a mating cue can mimic a magic trait in its divergence. We find that these "pseudomagic traits" can be very effective in promoting divergence; with tight linkage they are essentially as effective as a magic trait and with loose linkage, and even no linkage, divergence can still be enhanced. Distinguishing between magic and pseudomagic traits in empirical cases may thus not be important when inferring their role in divergence. The ability of divergence in the mating trait to drive divergence in the ecological trait by lowering the effective migration rate, which occurs somewhat even without linkage, is particularly striking; magic traits are typically considered to have the other direction of causality. Our results thus suggest that divergence in a mating trait can at least modestly increase local adaption by allowing more ecological divergence, particularly with tighter linkage.

An Effective Mutualism? The Role of Theoretical Studies in Ecology and Evolution.

Theoretical models often have fundamentally different goals than do empirical studies of the same topic. Models can test the logic of existing hypotheses, explore the plausibility of new hypotheses, provide expectations that can be tested with data, and address aspects of topics that are currently inaccessible empirically. Theoretical models are common in ecology and evolution and are generally well cited, but I show that many citations appearing in nontheoretical studies are general to topic and that a substantial proportion are incorrect. One potential cause of this pattern is that some functions of models are rather abstract, leading to miscommunication between theoreticians and empiricists. Such misunderstandings are often triggered by simplifying logistical assumptions that modelers make. The 2018 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists included a variety of mathematical models in ecology and evolution from across several topics. Common threads that appear in the use of the models are identified, highlighting the power of a theoretical approach and the role of the assumptions that such models make.

The evolution of partial reproductive isolation as an adaptive optimum.

Decades of theoretical work on the evolution of adaptive prezygotic isolation have led to an interesting finding-namely that stable partial reproductive isolation is a relatively common outcome. This conclusion is generally lost, however, in the desire to pinpoint when exactly speciation occurs. Here, we argue that the evolution of partial reproductive isolation is of great interest in its own right and matches empirical findings that ongoing hybridization is taxonomically widespread. We present the mechanisms by which partial reproductive isolation can be a stable evolutionary endpoint, concentrating on insights from theoretical studies. We focus not on cases in which hybridization results from constraints imposed by ongoing migration or mutation, but on the intriguing idea that partial reproductive isolation may instead be an adaptive optimum. We identify three general categories of selective mechanisms that can lead to partial reproductive isolation: context-dependent hybrid advantage, indirect selection due to the varying actions of sexual selection in different geographic contexts, and a balance of costs of choosiness with indirect selection for stronger mating preferences. By any of these mechanisms, stable partial reproductive isolation can potentially provide a robust evolutionary alternative to either complete speciation or population fusion.

Imprinting sets the stage for speciation.

Sexual imprinting-a phenomenon in which offspring learn parental traits and later use them as a model for their own mate preferences-can generate reproductive barriers between species1. When the target of imprinting is a mating trait that differs among young lineages, imprinted preferences may contribute to behavioural isolation and facilitate speciation1,2. However, in most models of speciation by sexual selection, divergent natural selection is also required; the latter acts to generate and maintain variation in the sexually selected trait or traits, and in the mating preferences that act upon them3. Here we demonstrate that imprinting, in addition to mediating female mate preferences, can shape biases in male-male aggression. These biases can act similarly to natural selection to maintain variation in traits and mate preferences, which facilitates reproductive isolation driven entirely by sexual selection. Using a cross-fostering study, we show that both male and female strawberry poison frogs (Oophaga pumilio) imprint on coloration, which is a mating trait that has diverged recently and rapidly in this species4. Cross-fostered females prefer to court mates of the same colour as their foster mother, and cross-fostered males are more aggressive towards rivals that share the colour of their foster mother. We also use a simple population-genetics model to demonstrate that when both male aggression biases and female mate preferences are formed through parental imprinting, sexual selection alone can (1) stabilize a sympatric polymorphism and (2) strengthen the trait-preference association that leads to behavioural reproductive isolation. Our study provides evidence of imprinting in an amphibian and suggests that this rarely considered combination of rival and sexual imprinting can reduce gene flow between individuals that bear divergent mating traits, which sets the stage for speciation by sexual selection.

Evolution of sexual cooperation from sexual conflict.

In many species that form pair bonds, males display to their mate after pair formation. These displays elevate the female's investment into the brood. This is a form of cooperation because without the display, female investment is reduced to levels that are suboptimal for both sexes. The presence of such displays is paradoxical as in their absence the male should be able to invest extra resources directly into offspring, to the benefit of both sexes. We consider that the origin of these displays lies in the exploitation of preexisting perceptual biases which increase female investment beyond that which is optimal for her, initially resulting in a sexual conflict. We use a combined population genetic and quantitative genetic model to show how this conflict becomes resolved into sexual cooperation. A cooperative outcome is most likely when perceptual biases are under selection pressures in other contexts (e.g., detection of predators, prey, or conspecifics), but this is not required. Cooperation between pair members can regularly evolve even when this provides no net advantage to the pair and when the display itself reduces a male's contributions to raising the brood. The findings account for many interactions between the sexes that have been difficult to explain in the context of sexual selection.