ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients.

Metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose and obesity, as predictors of incident diabetes in 14 120 hypertensive patients of ASCOT-BPLA: comparison of their relative predictability using a novel approach.

AIMS: To evaluate, in hypertensive patients, whether the metabolic syndrome is a better predictor of new-onset diabetes compared with impaired fasting glucose, obesity or its other individual components alone, or collectively. METHODS: Cox models were developed to assess the risk of new-onset diabetes associated with the metabolic syndrome after adjusting for a priori confounders (age, sex, ethnicity and concomitant use of non-cardiovascular medications), its individual components and other determinants of new-onset diabetes. Area under receiver operator curves using the metabolic syndrome or models of impaired fasting glucose were compared, and the ability of these models to correctly identify those who (after 5-years of follow-up) would or would not develop diabetes was assessed. RESULTS: The metabolic syndrome adjusted for a priori confounders and its individual components, and further adjusted for other determinants, was associated with significantly increased risk of new-onset diabetes [1.19 (1.00-1.40), P = 0.05 and 1.22 (1.03-1.44), P = 0.02, respectively]. The discriminative ability of the metabolic syndrome model [area under receiver operating curve: 0.764 (0.750-0.778)] was significantly better than the model of impaired fasting glucose [0.742 (0.727-0.757)] (P < 0.001). The metabolic syndrome correctly allocates the risk of new-onset diabetes in a significantly higher proportion of patients (62.3%) than impaired fasting glucose status (37.7%) (P < 0.001). The presence of both the metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose were associated with an approximately 9-fold (7.47-10.45) increased risk of new-onset diabetes. Among normoglycaemic patients, the metabolic syndrome was also associated with significantly increased risk of new-onset diabetes, after adjusting for BMI and a priori confounders [1.66 (1.29-2.13)]. CONCLUSIONS: Both impaired fasting glucose and the metabolic syndrome predict the risk of new-onset diabetes; however, the metabolic syndrome is a better predictor than impaired fasting glucose in assigning the risk of new-onset diabetes in hypertensive patients, and among those with normoglycaemia.

The economic consequences of non-adherence to lipid-lowering therapy: results from the Anglo-Scandinavian-Cardiac Outcomes Trial.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to lipid-lowering therapy in clinical practice is less than ideal. Analysis of registry data has indicated that this is associated with poor outcomes. The objective of the present analysis was to assess the impact of high adherence to drug (defined as > 80% of days covered), compared with low adherence to drug (< 50% of days covered) in terms of risk of events and long-term economic consequences. DESIGN: Open-label follow up of a randomised placebo-controlled trial in hypertensive patients. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models were used to assess the hazard ratio of patients with high adherence compared with low adherence while controlling for cardiovascular risk. A Markov model was used to predict the long-term costs and health outcomes associated with poor adherence during the follow-up period. RESULTS: Both statistical models indicated that high adherence is associated with improved prognosis [Cox model: 0.75; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56-0.98, Poisson model hazard ratio: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.58-0.98]. Discounted at 3.5% per year, the Markov model predicts that as a consequence of higher adherence during the follow-up period, costs would be higher (1689 pounds per patient compared with 1323 pounds per patient) because of higher drug costs, but the projected survival and quality-adjusted survival (QALY) would also be longer (10.83 compared with 10.81 life years and 8.13 compared with 8.11 QALYs). CONCLUSION: Given the higher risk of cardiovascular events associated with low adherence shown here, measures to improve adherence are an important part of the prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Economic evaluation of ASCOT-BPLA: antihypertensive treatment with an amlodipine-based regimen is cost effective compared with an atenolol-based regimen.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost effectiveness of an amlodipine-based strategy and an atenolol-based strategy in the treatment of hypertension in the UK and Sweden. DESIGN: A prospective, randomised trial complemented with a Markov model to assess long-term costs and health effects. SETTING: Primary care. PATIENTS: Patients with moderate hypertension and three or more additional risk factors. INTERVENTIONS: Amlodipine 5-10 mg with perindopril 4-8 mg added as needed or atenolol 50-100 mg with bendroflumethiazide 1.25-2.5 mg and potassium added as needed MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per cardiovascular event and procedure avoided, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: In the UK, the cost to avoid one cardiovascular event or procedure would be euro18 965, and the cost to gain one quality-adjusted life-year would be euro21 875. The corresponding figures for Sweden were euro13 210 and euro16 856. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the thresholds applied by NICE and in the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's Guidelines for Cardiac Care, an amlodipine-based regimen is cost effective for the treatment of hypertension compared with an atenolol-based regimen in the population studied.

Effects of blood pressure lowering with amlodipine or lisinopril on vascular structure of the common carotid artery.

Increased intima-media thickness of the common carotid artery predicts increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. Preliminary evidence suggests that a decrease in blood pressure (BP) is associated with diminished wall thickness. It is not known if all classes of anti-hypertensive agents have similar protective effects. In this double-blind parallel-group clinical trial, 69 previously untreated patients with hypertension were allocated randomly to 1 year of treatment with either amlodipine (5-10 mg daily) or lisinopril (5-20 mg daily). Doxazosin and bendrofluazide were added if required to achieve BP control. After 12 months of treatment, clinic BP, ambulatory BP and cardiac mass were reduced similarly by the two treatment regimens. Common carotid artery intima-media thickness decreased by 0.048 mm (95% confidence intervals -0.066, -0.031 mm) in the amlodipine-treated group, but decreased by only 0.027 mm (-0.046, -0.007 mm) in the lisinopril-treated group (P<0.05 for difference between treatments). Common carotid artery lumen diameter declined significantly only in patients treated with lisinopril [amlodipine, -0.02 mm (-0.14, 0.10 mm); lisinopril, -0.21 mm (-0.32, -0.11 mm); P<0.02], while intima-media area declined similarly in the two treatment groups [amlodipine -1.32 mm(2) (-1.91, -0.74 mm(2)), lisinopril -1.26 mm(2) (-1.80, -0.72 mm(2)); not significant]. The results confirm that a decrease in BP causes regression of structural changes in the carotid artery in hypertensive patients. The nature of the structural regression differed markedly between the two treatment regimens, in spite of similar decreases in BP. The calcium channel blocker induced greater regression of common carotid artery intima-media thickness than the angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor. However, carotid artery wall mass, as indicated by intima-media area, was reduced to a similar extent by the two treatments. It remains to be established whether such differences confer a prognostic advantage.

Mechanism of action of angiotensin II in human isolated subcutaneous resistance arteries.

1. Human isolated subcutaneous arteries were mounted in a myograph and isometric tension measured. In some experiments, intracellular calcium [Ca(2+)]i was also measured using fura-2. 2. Angiotensin II (100 pM - 1 microM) increased [Ca(2+)]i and tone in a concentration-dependent manner. The effects of angiotensin II (100 nM) were inhibited by an AT1-receptor antagonist, candesartan (100 pM). 3. Ryanodine (10 microM), had no effect on angiotensin II-induced responses, but removal of extracellular Ca(2+) abolished angiotensin II-induced rise in [Ca(2+)]i and tone. Inhibition of Ca(2+) entry by Ni(2+) (2 mM), also inhibited angiotensin II responses. The dihydropyridine, L-type calcium channel antagonist, amlodipine (10 microM), only partially attenuated angiotensin II responses. 4. Inhibition of protein kinase C (PKC) by chelerythrine (1 microM), or by overnight exposure to a phorbol ester (PDBu; 500 nM) had no effect on angiotensin II-induced contraction. 5. Genistein (10 microM), a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, inhibited angiotensin II-induced contraction, but did not inhibit the rise in [Ca(2+)]i, suggesting that at this concentration it affected the calcium sensitivity of the contractile apparatus. Genistein did not affect responses to norepinephrine (NE) or high potassium (KPSS). 6. A selective MEK inhibitor, PD98059 (30 microM), inhibited both the angiotensin II-induced contraction and rise in [Ca(2+)]i, but had no effect on responses to NE or KPSS. 7. AT1 activation causes Ca(2+) influx via L-type calcium channels and a dihydropyridine-insensitive route, but does not release Ca(2+) from intracellular sites. Activation of tyrosine kinase(s) and the ERK 1/2 pathway, but not classical or novel PKC, also play a role in angiotensin II-induced contraction in human subcutaneous resistance arteries.

Rationale, design, methods and baseline demography of participants of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial. ASCOT investigators.

OBJECTIVE: To test the primary hypothesis that a newer antihypertensive treatment regimen (calcium channel blocker +/- an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor) is more effective than an older regimen (beta-blocker +/- a diuretic) in the primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). To test a second primary hypothesis that a statin compared with placebo will further protect against CHD endpoints in hypertensive subjects with a total cholesterol < or = 6.5 mmol/l. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, open, blinded endpoint trial with a double-blinded 2 x 2 factorial component. SETTING: Patients were recruited mainly from general practices. PATIENTS: Men and women aged 40-79 were eligible if their blood pressure was > or = 160 mmHg systolic or > or = 100 mmHg diastolic (untreated) or > or = 140 mmHg systolic or > or = 90 mmHg diastolic (treated) at randomization. INTERVENTIONS: Patients received either amlodipine (5/ 10 mg) +/- perindopril (4/8 mg) or atenolol (50/ 100 mg) +/- bendroflumethiazide (1.25/2.5 mg) +K+ with further therapy as required to reach a blood pressure of < or = 140 mmHg systolic and 90 mmHg diastolic. Patients with a total cholesterol of < or = 6.5 mmol/l were further randomized to receive either atorvastatin 10 mg or placebo daily. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) and fatal coronary heart disease (CHD). RESULTS: 19 342 men and women were initially randomized, of these 10297 were also randomized into the lipid-lowering limb. All patients had three or more additional cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The study has 80% power (at the 5% level) to detect a relative difference of 20% in CHD endpoints between the calcium channel blocker-based regimen and the beta-blocker-based regimen. The lipid-lowering limb of the study has 90% power at the 1% level to detect a relative difference of 30% in CHD endpoints between groups.

Discordant responses to two classes of drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system.

INTRODUCTION: Marked heterogeneity characterises blood pressure (BP)responses to antihypertensive drugs. The efficacy of drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system(RAAS) is predicted (albeit weakly) by plasma renin activity (PRA) and it has been assumed that, within individuals, there would be concordance in efficacy between drugs acting at different sites to block the RAAS. DESIGN: The present study was a randomised, double-blind,two-way, crossover study designed to evaluate intra-individual BP responses to an angiotensin II AT -receptor blocker (ARB), candesartan cilexetil, and anangiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE-I), lisinopril, and to identify potential phenotypic characteristics of patients' responses to the drugs. METHODS: 92 patients with essential hypertension, (mean systolic/diastolic BP 160/101 mmHg) entered the trial,of whom 76 patients completed both treatments. RESULTS: There was marked heterogeneity in response to the two drugs. 50% of patients responded (fall in diastolic BP of>10 mmHg or achieved diastolic pressure <90 mmHg)to both drugs; 16% were non-responders to both drugs; 20% responded to the ACE-I but not the ARB and 15% responded to the ARB but not to the ACE-I. Individual responses to the two drugs were poorly correlated (for diastolic pressure: r=0.19, p=0.11; for systolic pressure: r=-0.01, p=0.92). For the ACE-I, the fall in both systolic and diastolic BP was related to pre-treatment PRA (for diastolic pressure: r=0.31, p=0.008; for systolic pressure: r=0.24, p=0.04). In the case of the ARB, no relationship between the fall in BP and PRA was observed. These observations suggest that more complex mechanisms may be involved in BP reduction with ARBs than with ACE-I.

Improving antihypertensive efficacy while maintaining placebo-like tolerability.

Potency and efficacy, duration of action, organ-specific effects and tolerability are the main considerations when choosing among antihypertensive therapies. Candesartan has been shown in in vitro animal models to bind insurmountably to the angiotensin II type 1 (AT1) receptor, thus providing effective blockade of all the major negative cardiovascular effects of angiotensin II. Its binding characteristics differentiate candesartan from other AT1-receptor blockers. Candesartan cilexetil has been found to produce a predictable and pronounced dose-dependent decrease in blood pressure, with placebo-like tolerability even at the highest doses studied. In comparison with the standard 50-mg dose of losartan, candesartan cilexetil, 16 mg, was significantly more effective in suppressing the renin-angiotensin system and in reducing trough diastolic blood pressure. Pooled results from placebo-controlled trials also indicate that candesartan cilexetil has equivalent efficacy to irbesartan. In addition, the extent of blood pressure lowering by candesartan cilexetil has been shown to be similar to that of agents in the other major classes of antihypertensive drugs, and to be effective in combination therapy with diuretics and calcium channel blockers. Candesartan cilexetil combines 24-h blood pressure lowering with placebo-like tolerability and is therefore an important advance in antihypertensive therapy.

Applying evidence-based medicine to current practice: a round table panel discussion.

Over the past decade, an expanding body of epidemiological and clinical trial data has been collated, culminating in the development of guidelines designed to help physicians make decisions about intervention and the intensity of treatment, based on objective assessments of the overall level of risk for cardiovascular disease. However, guidelines are not prescriptive and allow physicians leeway in interpretation. Thus, it is of clinical interest to explore some of the issues that may influence the use of these guidelines in clinical practice. This paper summarises a round table panel discussion that highlighted the usefulness of current guidelines, but also demonstrated that these guidelines, and the evaluation of cardiovascular risk, need to be used with care and always interpreted in the light of sound clinical judgement.

Improvement in midwall myocardial shortening with regression of left ventricular hypertrophy.

Despite normal indices of left ventricular (LV) chamber function, patients with LV hypertrophy (LVH) due to hypertension are thought to have depressed midwall systolic shortening compared with normotensives. The aims of the present study were (1) to confirm this observation and (2) to assess the effects of antihypertensive therapy that cause regression of LVH on LV systolic function assessed at both the midwall and endocardium. Thirty-eight previously untreated hypertensive subjects with LVH underwent echocardiography and were compared with 38 normotensive control subjects. Comparisons between the group with LVH and the control group revealed no significant differences in cardiac output (4. 32+/-0.23 versus 4.55+/-0.21 L/min), ejection fraction (62.5+/-2% versus 66.4+/-1.07%), or endocardial fractional shortening (34.5+/-1.45% versus 37.0+/-0.82%), but shortening assessed at the midwall was significantly less in the group with LVH (17.9+/-1.11% versus 21.6+/-0.63%, P<0.01). Subsequently, 32 patients with uncontrolled hypertension (24 previously untreated and 8 on existing antihypertensive therapy) underwent treatment with ramipril, with the addition of felodipine and bendrofluazide if required, to reduce blood pressure to <140/90 mm Hg. These 32 patients underwent echocardiography at baseline, after blood pressure control, and after an additional 6 months of tight blood pressure control. Good blood pressure control was achieved after 6 months compared with baseline (143/86+/-2.8/1.4 versus 174/103+/-4.1/1.9 mm Hg; P<0.01) with significant regression of LV mass index (124+/-3.4 versus 145+/-3.8 g/m(2), P<0.01). LV fractional shortening assessed at the midwall improved with regression of LVH (21.9+/-0.84 and 18.7+/-1. 19%, P<0.05), with posttreatment midwall shortening being similar to that of the normal control subjects evaluated in the first study. Hypertensive patients with LVH have depressed midwall systolic shortening despite normal indices of LV chamber function. Regression of LVH after good blood pressure control improved midwall shortening to normal levels.

Action of angiotensin II on DNA synthesis by human saphenous vein in organ culture.

Angiotensin II (Ang II), an effector peptide of the renin-angiotensin system, has been reported to stimulate growth of blood vessels in vivo and smooth muscle cells in culture. In this study, the effect of Ang II on DNA synthesis was examined in deendothelialized human saphenous vein in organ culture. After 7 days' exposure to medium containing 0.4% fetal calf serum plus Ang II, there was a marked increase in DNA synthesis. The effect of Ang II was comparable to the response to platelet-derived growth factor. Responses to Ang II were partially inhibited by the AT(1) receptor antagonist candesartan. An AT(2) receptor antagonist, PD123319, had no effect on Ang II-induced DNA synthesis, either alone or in combination with candesartan. The Ang II peptide analogues [Sar(1), Ile(8)]-Ang II (saralasin) and [Sar(1),Thr(8)]-Ang II (sarthran) acted as agonists, increasing DNA synthesis. In the presence of saralasin, responses to Ang II were inhibited. Tyrphostin-23, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, prevented Ang II-induced DNA synthesis and reduced DNA synthesis in tissues incubated in medium containing only 0.4% fetal calf serum. In conclusion, Ang II stimulates DNA synthesis in human saphenous vein in organ culture. The effect of Ang II was more marked than has been previously reported in isolated cultured saphenous vein smooth muscle cells, and this effect is mediated in part by an angiotensin type 1 receptor. It is possible that an undefined receptor for Ang II may also be involved in the stimulation of DNA synthesis in this preparation.

Coronary heart disease prevention As the primary goal in contemporary trials in the treatment of hypertension.

The prevention of coronary heart disease remains one of the greatest challenges for antihypertensive therapy. Previous trials have identified a shortfall in the protection of hypertensive patients against coronary heart disease compared with that predicted from observational studies. The present question is whether newer classes of drugs or drug combinations (calcium channel blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors) can redress the shortfall compared with older agents (diuretics, beta-blockers). However, to answer this question only two trials (Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial [ALLHAT] and Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial [ASCOT]) are of sufficient size to be adequately powered to address this issue. ALLHAT and ASCOT have completed randomization of patients and will report on morbidity and mortality within 3 to 4 years.

The surgical management of renovascular hypertension in children and young adults.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the outcome and durability of operative revascularisation in young patients with renovascular hypertension. DESIGN: Retrospective study. METHOD: The records of all young patients (under 25 years) operated on for renovascular hypertension at St Mary's Hospital 1988-1998 were reviewed. We assessed the aetiology of hypertension, operations performed, effect of treatment on blood pressure, renal function and requirement for antihypertensive medication during follow-up. RESULTS: Ten patients were identified who had been considered for surgery, of median age 16 years (22 months to 22 years). Fibromuscular dysplasia was present in five patients, mid-aortic syndrome (MAS) in four and neurofibromatosis in one. Operations performed were aortorenal bypass (three), aorto-aortic bypass+/-renal bypass (three), splenorenal bypass (one) and autotransplantation (one). Of the three patients treated by balloon angioplasty, only one had a successful result. One patient with MAS is currently awaiting surgery. Over a median follow-up of 24 months (8-144), seven patients are normotensive off all antihypertensive medication. Of two patients on reduced doses of medication, one (splenorenal bypass) required surgical repair of a late (9 years) coeliac stenosis. CONCLUSIONS: The surgical treatment of renovascular hypertension in carefully selected young patients gives durable results. Blood pressure is well controlled long-term, and the need for antihypertensive medication is removed altogether in the majority of patients.