Detection of Meals and Physical Activity Events From Free-Living Data of People With Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Predicting carbohydrate intake and physical activity in people with diabetes is crucial for improving blood glucose concentration regulation. Patterns of individual behavior can be detected from historical free-living data to predict meal and exercise times. Data collected in free-living may have missing values and forgotten manual entries. While machine learning (ML) can capture meal and exercise times, missing values, noise, and errors in data can reduce the accuracy of ML algorithms. METHODS: Two recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are developed with original and imputed data sets to assess detection accuracy of meal and exercise events. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data, insulin infused from pump data, and manual meal and exercise entries from free-living data are used to predict meals, exercise, and their concurrent occurrence. They contain missing values of various lengths in time, noise, and outliers. RESULTS: The accuracy of RNN models range from 89.9% to 95.7% for identifying the state of event (meal, exercise, both, or neither) for various users. "No meal or exercise" state is determined with 94.58% accuracy by using the best RNN (long short-term memory [LSTM] with 1D Convolution). Detection accuracy with this RNN is 98.05% for meals, 93.42% for exercise, and 55.56% for concurrent meal-exercise events. CONCLUSIONS: The meal and exercise times detected by the RNN models can be used to warn people for entering meal and exercise information to hybrid closed-loop automated insulin delivery systems. Reliable accuracy for event detection necessitates powerful ML and large data sets. The use of additional sensors and algorithms for detecting these events and their characteristics provides a more accurate alternative.

Meal and Physical Activity Detection from Free-living Data for Discovering Disturbance Patterns to Glucose Levels in People with Diabetes.

Objective: Interpretation of time series data collected in free-living has gained importance in chronic disease management. Some data are collected objectively from sensors and some are estimated and entered by the individual. In type 1 diabetes (T1D), blood glucose concentration (BGC) data measured by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems and insulin doses administered can be used to detect the occurrences of meals and physical activities and generate the personal daily living patterns for use in automated insulin delivery (AID). Methods: Two challenges in time-series data collected in daily living are addressed: data quality improvement and detection of unannounced disturbances to BGC. CGM data have missing values for varying periods of time and outliers. People may neglect reporting their meal and physical activity information. In this work, novel methods for preprocessing real-world data collected from people with T1D and detection of meal and exercise events are presented. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) models are investigated to detect the occurrences of meals and physical activities disjointly or concurrently. Results: RNNs with long short-term memory (LSTM) with 1D convolution layers and bidirectional LSTM with 1D convolution layers have average accuracy scores of 92.32% and 92.29%, and outper-form other RNN models. The F1 scores for each individual range from 96.06% to 91.41% for these two RNNs. Conclusions: RNNs with LSTM and 1D convolution layers and bidirectional LSTM with 1D convolution layers provide accurate personalized information about the daily routines of individuals. Significance: Capturing daily behavior patterns enables more accurate future BGC predictions in AID systems and improves BGC regulation.

Observational Study of Glycemic Impact of Anticipatory and Early-Race Athletic Competition Stress in Type 1 Diabetes.

Athletic competitions and the associated psychological stress are a challenge for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). This study aims to understand the influence of anticipatory and early race competition stress on blood glucose concentrations and to identify personality, demographic, or behavioral traits indicative in the scope of the impact. Ten recreational athletes with T1D competed in an athletic competition and an exercise-intensity matched non-competition "training" session for comparison. The two hours prior to exercise and the first 30 minutes of exercise were compared between the paired exercise sessions to assess the influence of anticipatory and early race stress. The effectiveness index, average CGM glucose, and the ingested carbohydrate to injected insulin ratio were compared between the paired sessions through regression. In 9 of 12 races studied, an elevated CGM for the race over the individual training session was observed. The rate of change of the CGM during the first 30 minutes of exercise notably differed between the race and training (p = 0.02) with a less rapid decline in CGM occurring during the race for 11 of 12 paired sessions and an increasing CGM trend during the race for 7 of the 12 sessions with the rate of change (mean ± standard deviation) as 1.36 ± 6.07 and -2.59 ± 2.68 mg/dL per 5 minutes for the race and training, respectively. Individuals with longer durations of diabetes often decreased their carbohydrate-to-insulin ratio on race day, taking more insulin, than on the training day while the reverse was noted for those newly diagnosed (r = -0.52, p = 0.05). The presence of athletic competition stress can impact glycemia. With an increasing duration of diabetes, the athletes may be expecting elevated competition glucose concentrations and take preventive measures.

Physical Activity and Psychological Stress Detection and Assessment of Their Effects on Glucose Concentration Predictions in Diabetes Management.

OBJECTIVE: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) enables prediction of the future glucose concentration (GC) trajectory for making informed diabetes management decisions. The glucose concentration values are affected by various physiological and metabolic variations, such as physical activity (PA) and acute psychological stress (APS), in addition to meals and insulin. In this work, we extend our adaptive glucose modeling framework to incorporate the effects of PA and APS on the GC predictions. METHODS: A wristband conducive of use by free-living ambulatory people is used. The measured physiological variables are analyzed to generate new quantifiable input features for PA and APS. Machine learning techniques estimate the type and intensity of the PA and APS when they occur individually and concurrently. Variables quantifying the characteristics of both PA and APS are integrated as exogenous inputs in an adaptive system identification technique for enhancing the accuracy of GC predictions. Data from clinical experiments illustrate the improvement in GC prediction accuracy. RESULTS: The average mean absolute error (MAE) of one-hour-ahead GC predictions with testing data decreases from 35.1 to 31.9 mg/dL (p-value = 0.01) with the inclusion of PA information, and it decreases from 16.9 to 14.2 mg/dL (p-value = 0.006) with the inclusion of PA and APS information. CONCLUSION: The first-ever glucose prediction model is developed that incorporates measures of physical activity and acute psychological stress to improve GC prediction accuracy. SIGNIFICANCE: Modeling the effects of physical activity and acute psychological stress on glucose concentration values will improve diabetes management and enable informed meal, activity and insulin dosing decisions.

Discrimination of simultaneous psychological and physical stressors using wristband biosignals.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In this work, we address the problem of detecting and discriminating acute psychological stress (APS) in the presence of concurrent physical activity (PA) using wristband biosignals. We focused on signals available from wearable devices that can be worn in daily life because the ultimate objective of this work is to provide APS and PA information in real-time management of chronic conditions such as diabetes by automated personalized insulin delivery. Monitoring APS noninvasively throughout free-living conditions remains challenging because the responses to APS and PA of many physiological variables measured by wearable devices are similar. METHODS: Various classification algorithms are compared to simultaneously detect and discriminate the PA (sedentary state, treadmill running, and stationary bike) and the type of APS (non-stress state, mental stress, and emotional anxiety). The impact of APS inducements is verified with commonly used self-reported questionnaires (The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI)). To aid the classification algorithms, novel features are generated from the physiological variables reported by a wristband device during 117 hours of experiments involving simultaneous APS inducement and PA. We also translate the APS assessment into a quantitative metric for use in predicting the adverse outcomes. RESULTS: An accurate classification of the concurrent PA and APS states is achieved with an overall classification accuracy of 99% for PA and 92% for APS. The average accuracy of APS detection during sedentary state, treadmill running, and stationary bike is 97.3, 94.1, and 84.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The simultaneous assessment of APS and PA throughout free-living conditions from a convenient wristband device is useful for monitoring the factors contributing to an elevated risk of acute events in people with chronic diseases like cardiovascular complications and diabetes.

Determining Physical Activity Characteristics from Wristband Data for Use in Automated Insulin Delivery Systems.

Algorithms that can determine the type of physical activity (PA) and quantify the intensity can allow precision medicine approaches, such as automated insulin delivery systems that modulate insulin administration in response to PA. In this work, data from a multi-sensor wristband is used to design classifiers to distinguish among five different physical states (PS) (resting, activities of daily living, running, biking, and resistance training), and to develop models to estimate the energy expenditure (EE) of the PA for diabetes therapy. The data collected are filtered, features are extracted from the reconciled signals, and the extracted features are used by machine learning algorithms, including deep-learning techniques, to obtain accurate PS classification and EE estimation. The various machine learning techniques have different success rates ranging from 75.7% to 94.8% in classifying the five different PS. The deep neural network model with long short-term memory has 94.8% classification accuracy. We achieved 0.5 MET (Metabolic Equivalent of Task) root-mean-square error for EE estimation accuracy, relative to indirect calorimetry with randomly selected testing data (10% of collected data). We also demonstrate a 5% improvement in PS classification accuracy and a 0.34 MET decrease in the mean absolute error when using multi-sensor approach relative to using only accelerometer data.

Online Glucose Prediction Using Computationally Efficient Sparse Kernel Filtering Algorithms in Type-1 Diabetes.

Streaming data from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems enable the recursive identification of models to improve estimation accuracy for effective predictive glycemic control in patients with type-1 diabetes. A drawback of conventional recursive identification techniques is the increase in computational requirements, which is a concern for online and real-time applications such as the artificial pancreas systems implemented on handheld devices and smartphones where computational resources and memory are limited. To improve predictions in such computationally constrained hardware settings, efficient adaptive kernel filtering algorithms are developed in this paper to characterize the nonlinear glycemic variability by employing a sparsification criterion based on the information theory to reduce the computation time and complexity of the kernel filters without adversely deteriorating the predictive performance. Furthermore, the adaptive kernel filtering algorithms are designed to be insensitive to abnormal CGM measurements, thus compensating for measurement noise and disturbances. As such, the sparsification-based real-time model update framework can adapt the prediction models to accurately characterize the time-varying and nonlinear dynamics of glycemic measurements. The proposed recursive kernel filtering algorithms leveraging sparsity for improved computational efficiency are applied to both in-silico and clinical subjects, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Controlling the AP Controller: Controller Performance Assessment and Modification.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent advances in closed-loop control of blood glucose concentration (BGC) in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D), online performance assessment and modification of artificial pancreas (AP) control systems remain a challenge as the metabolic characteristics of users change over time. METHODS: A controller performance assessment and modification system (CPAMS) analyzes the glucose concentration variations and controller behavior, and modifies the parameters of the control system used in the multivariable AP system. Various indices are defined to quantitatively evaluate the controller performance in real time. Controller performance assessment and modification system also incorporates online learning from historical data to anticipate impending disturbances and proactively counteract their effects. RESULTS: Using a multivariable simulation platform for T1D, the CPAMS is used to enhance the BGC regulation in people with T1D by means of automated insulin delivery with an adaptive learning predictive controller. Controller performance assessment and modification system increases the percentage of time in the target range (70-180) mg/dL by 52.3% without causing any hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia events. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the multivariable AP controller performance by using CPAMS.

Multi-Model Sensor Fault Detection and Data Reconciliation: A Case Study with Glucose Concentration Sensors for Diabetes.

Erroneous information from sensors affect process monitoring and control. An algorithm with multiple model identification methods will improve the sensitivity and accuracy of sensor fault detection and data reconciliation (SFD&DR). A novel SFD&DR algorithm with four types of models including outlier robust Kalman filter, locally weighted partial least squares, predictor-based subspace identification, and approximate linear dependency-based kernel recursive least squares is proposed. The residuals are further analyzed by artificial neural networks and a voting algorithm. The performance of the SFD&DR algorithm is illustrated by clinical data from artificial pancreas experiments with people with diabetes. The glucose-insulin metabolism has time-varying parameters and nonlinearities, providing a challenging system for fault detection and data reconciliation. Data from 17 clinical experiments collected over 896 hours were analyzed; the results indicate that the proposed SFD&DR algorithm is capable of detecting and diagnosing sensor faults and reconciling the erroneous sensor signals with better model-estimated values.

Simulation Software for Assessment of Nonlinear and Adaptive Multivariable Control Algorithms: Glucose - Insulin Dynamics in Type 1 Diabetes.

A simulator for testing automatic control algorithms for nonlinear systems with time-varying parameters, variable time delays, and uncertainties is developed. It is based on simulation of virtual patients with Type 1 diabetes (T1D). Nonlinear models are developed to describe glucose concentration (GC) variations based on user-defined scenarios for meal consumption, insulin administration, and physical activity. They compute GC values and physiological variables, such as heart rate, skin temperature, accelerometer, and energy expenditure, that are indicative of physical activities affecting GC dynamics. This is the first simulator designed for assessment of multivariable controllers that consider supplemental physiological variables in addition to GC measurements to improve glycemic control. Virtual patients are generated from distributions of identified model parameters using clinical data. The simulator will enable testing and evaluation of new control algorithms proposed for automated insulin delivery as well as various control algorithms for nonlinear systems with uncertainties, time-varying parameters and delays.

Multi-level Supervision and Modification of Artificial Pancreas Control System.

Artificial pancreas (AP) systems provide automated regulation of blood glucose concentration (BGC) for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). An AP includes three components: a continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor, a controller calculating insulin infusion rate based on the CGM signal, and a pump delivering the insulin amount calculated by the controller to the patient. The performance of the AP system depends on successful operation of these three components. Many APs use model predictive controllers that rely on models to predict BGC and to calculate the optimal insulin infusion rate. The performance of model-based controllers depends on the accuracy of the models that is affected by large dynamic changes in glucose-insulin metabolism or equipment performance that may move the operating conditions away from those used in developing the models and designing the control system. Sensor errors and missing signals will cause calculation of erroneous insulin infusion rates. And the performance of the controller may vary at each sampling step and each period (meal, exercise, and sleep), and from day to day. Here we describe a multi-level supervision and controller modification (ML-SCM) module is developed to supervise the performance of the AP system and retune the controller. It supervises AP performance in 3 time windows: sample level, period level, and day level. At sample level, an online controller performance assessment sub-module will generate controller performance indexes to evaluate various components of the AP system and conservatively modify the controller. A sensor error detection and signal reconciliation module will detect sensor error and reconcile the CGM sensor signal at each sample. At period level, the controller performance is evaluated with information collected during a certain time period and the controller is tuned more aggressively. At the day level, the daily CGM ranges are further analyzed to determine the adjustable range of controller parameters used for sample level and period level. Thirty subjects in the UVa/Padova metabolic simulator were used to evaluate the performance of the ML-SCM module and one clinical experiment is used to illustrate its performance in a clinical environment. The results indicate that the AP system with an ML-SCM module has a safer range of glucose concentration distribution and more appropriate insulin infusion rate suggestions than an AP system without the ML-SCM module.

Multivariable Artificial Pancreas for Various Exercise Types and Intensities.

BACKGROUND: Exercise challenges people with type 1 diabetes in controlling their glucose concentration (GC). A multivariable adaptive artificial pancreas (MAAP) may lessen the burden. METHODS: The MAAP operates without any user input and computes insulin based on continuous glucose monitor and physical activity signals. To analyze performance, 18 60-h closed-loop experiments with 96 exercise sessions with three different protocols were completed. Each day, the subjects completed one resistance and one treadmill exercise (moderate continuous training [MCT] or high-intensity interval training [HIIT]). The primary outcome is time spent in each glycemic range during the exercise + recovery period. Secondary measures include average GC and average change in GC during each exercise modality. RESULTS: The GC during exercise + recovery periods were within the euglycemic range (70-180 mg/dL) for 69.9% of the time and within a safe glycemic range for exercise (70-250 mg/dL) for 93.0% of the time. The exercise sessions are defined to begin 30 min before the start of exercise and end 2 h after start of exercise. The GC were within the severe hypoglycemia (<55 mg/dL), moderate hypoglycemia (55-70 mg/dL), moderate hyperglycemia (180-250 mg/dL), and severe hyperglycemia (>250 mg/dL) for 0.9%, 1.3%, 23.1%, and 4.8% of the time, respectively. The average GC decline during exercise differed with exercise type (P = 0.0097) with a significant difference between the MCT and resistance (P = 0.0075). To prevent large GC decreases leading to hypoglycemia, MAAP recommended carbohydrates in 59% of MCT, 50% of HIIT, and 39% of resistance sessions. CONCLUSIONS: A consistent GC decline occurred in exercise and recovery periods, which differed with exercise type. The average GC at the start of exercise was above target (185.5 ± 56.6 mg/dL for MCT, 166.9 ± 61.9 mg/dL for resistance training, and 171.7 ± 41.4 mg/dL HIIT), making a small decrease desirable. Hypoglycemic events occurred in 14.6% of exercise sessions and represented only 2.22% of the exercise and recovery period.

Incorporating Unannounced Meals and Exercise in Adaptive Learning of Personalized Models for Multivariable Artificial Pancreas Systems.

BACKGROUND: Despite the recent advancements in the modeling of glycemic dynamics for type 1 diabetes mellitus, automatically considering unannounced meals and exercise without manual user inputs remains challenging. METHOD: An adaptive model identification technique that incorporates exercise information and estimates of the effects of unannounced meals obtained automatically without user input is proposed in this work. The effects of the unknown consumed carbohydrates are estimated using an individualized unscented Kalman filtering algorithm employing an augmented glucose-insulin dynamic model, and exercise information is acquired from noninvasive physiological measurements. The additional information on meals and exercise is incorporated with personalized estimates of plasma insulin concentration and glucose measurement data in an adaptive model identification algorithm. RESULTS: The efficacy of the proposed personalized and adaptive modeling algorithm is demonstrated using clinical data involving closed-loop experiments of the artificial pancreas system, and the results demonstrate accurate glycemic modeling with the average root-mean-square error (mean absolute error) of 25.50 mg/dL (18.18 mg/dL) for six-step (30 minutes ahead) predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The approach presented is able to identify reliable time-varying individualized glucose-insulin models.

Adaptive and Personalized Plasma Insulin Concentration Estimation for Artificial Pancreas Systems.

BACKGROUND: The artificial pancreas (AP) system, a technology that automatically administers exogenous insulin in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) to regulate their blood glucose concentrations, necessitates the estimation of the amount of active insulin already present in the body to avoid overdosing. METHOD: An adaptive and personalized plasma insulin concentration (PIC) estimator is designed in this work to accurately quantify the insulin present in the bloodstream. The proposed PIC estimation approach incorporates Hovorka's glucose-insulin model with the unscented Kalman filtering algorithm. Methods for the personalized initialization of the time-varying model parameters to individual patients for improved estimator convergence are developed. Data from 20 three-days-long closed-loop clinical experiments conducted involving subjects with T1DM are used to evaluate the proposed PIC estimation approach. RESULTS: The proposed methods are applied to the clinical data containing significant disturbances, such as unannounced meals and exercise, and the results demonstrate the accurate real-time estimation of the PIC with the root mean square error of 7.15 and 9.25 mU/L for the optimization-based fitted parameters and partial least squares regression-based testing parameters, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The accurate real-time estimation of PIC will benefit the AP systems by preventing overdelivery of insulin when significant insulin is present in the bloodstream.

Automatic Detection and Estimation of Unannounced Meals for Multivariable Artificial Pancreas System.

BACKGROUND: Automatically attenuating the postprandial rise in the blood glucose concentration without manual meal announcement is a significant challenge for artificial pancreas (AP) systems. In this study, a meal module is proposed to detect the consumption of a meal and to estimate the amount of carbohydrate (CHO) intake. METHODS: The meals are detected based on qualitative variables describing variation of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) readings. The CHO content of the meals/snacks is estimated by a fuzzy system using CGM and subcutaneous insulin delivery data. The meal bolus amount is computed according to the patient's insulin to CHO ratio. Integration of the meal module into a multivariable AP system allows revision of estimated CHO based on knowledge about physical activity, sleep, and the risk of hypoglycemia before the final decision for a meal bolus is made. RESULTS: The algorithm is evaluated by using 117 meals/snacks in retrospective data from 11 subjects with type 1 diabetes. Sensitivity, defined as the percentage of correctly detected meals and snacks, is 93.5% for meals and 68.0% for snacks. The percentage of false positives, defined as the proportion of false detections relative to the total number of detected meals and snacks, is 20.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of a meal detection module in an AP system is a further step toward an automated AP without manual entries. Detection of a consumed meal/snack and infusion of insulin boluses using an estimate of CHO enables the AP system to automatically prevent postprandial hyperglycemia.

Model-Fusion-Based Online Glucose Concentration Predictions in People with Type 1 Diabetes.

Accurate predictions of glucose concentrations are necessary to develop an artificial pancreas (AP) system for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). In this work, a novel glucose forecasting paradigm based on a model fusion strategy is developed to accurately characterize the variability and transient dynamics of glycemic measurements. To this end, four different adaptive filters and a fusion mechanism are proposed for use in the online prediction of future glucose trajectories. The filter fusion mechanism is developed based on various prediction performance indexes to guide the overall output of the forecasting paradigm. The efficiency of the proposed model fusion based forecasting method is evaluated using simulated and clinical datasets, and the results demonstrate the capability and prediction accuracy of the data-based fusion filters, especially in the case of limited data availability. The model fusion framework may be used in the development of an AP system for glucose regulation in patients with T1D.

Meal Detection and Carbohydrate Estimation Using Continuous Glucose Sensor Data.

A meal detection and meal-size estimation algorithm is developed for use in artificial pancreas (AP) control systems for people with type 1 diabetes. The algorithm detects the consumption of a meal and estimates its carbohydrate (CHO) amount to determine the appropriate dose of insulin bolus for a meal. It can be used in AP systems without manual meal announcements, or as a safety feature for people who may forget entering meal information manually. Using qualitative representation of the filtered continuous glucose monitor signal, a time period labeled as meal flag is identified. At every sampling time during this time period, a fuzzy system estimates the amount of CHO. Meal size estimator uses both glucose sensor and insulin data. Meal insulin bolus is based on estimated CHO. The algorithm does not change the basal insulin rate. Thirty in silico subjects of the UVa/Padova simulator are used to illustrate the performance of the algorithm. For the evaluation dataset, the sensitivity and false positives detection rates are 91.3% and 9.3%, respectively, the absolute error in CHO estimation is 23.1%, the mean blood glucose level is 142 mg/dl, and glucose concentration stays in target range (70-180 mg/dl) for 76.8% of simulation duration on average.

Hypoglycemia Detection and Carbohydrate Suggestion in an Artificial Pancreas.

Fear of hypoglycemia is a major concern for many patients with type 1 diabetes and affects patient decisions for use of an artificial pancreas system. We propose an alternative way for prevention of hypoglycemia by issuing predictive hypoglycemia alarms and encouraging patients to consume carbohydrates in a timely manner. The algorithm has been tested on 6 subjects (3 males and 3 females, age 24.2 ± 4.5 years, weight 79.2 ± 16.2 kg, height 172.7 ± 9.4 cm, HbA1C 7.3 ± 0.48%, duration of diabetes 209.2 ± 87.9 months) over 3-day closed-loop clinical experiments as part of a multivariable artificial pancreas control system. Over 6 three-day clinical experiments, there were only 5 real hypoglycemia episodes, of which only 1 hypoglycemia episode occurred due to being missed by the proposed algorithm. The average hypoglycemia alarms per day and per subject was 3. Average glucose value when the first alarms were triggered was recorded to be 117 ± 30.6 mg/dl. Average carbohydrate consumption per alarm was 14 ± 7.8 grams. Our results have shown that most low glucose concentrations can be predicted in advance and the glucose levels can be raised back to the desired levels by consuming an appropriate amount of carbohydrate. The proposed algorithm is able to prevent most hypoglycemic events by suggesting appropriate levels of carbohydrate consumption before the actual occurrence of hypoglycemia.