Artificial intelligence-informed planning for the rapid response of hazard-impacted road networks.

Post-hazard rapid response has emerged as a promising pathway towards resilient critical infrastructure systems (CISs). Nevertheless, it is challenging to scheme the optimal plan for those rapid responses, given the enormous search space and the hardship of assessment on the spatiotemporal status of CISs. We now present a new approach to post-shock rapid responses of road networks (RNs), based upon lookahead searches supported by machine learning. Following this approach, we examined the resilience-oriented rapid response of a real-world RN across Luchon, France, under destructive earthquake scenarios. Our results show that the introduction of one-step lookahead searches can effectively offset the lack of adaptivity due to the deficient heuristic of rapid responses. Furthermore, the performance of rapid responses following such a strategy is far surpassed, when a series of deep neural networks trained based solely on machine learning, without human interventions, are employed to replace the heuristic and guide the searches.

Canonical Correlation Analysis and Partial Least Squares for Identifying Brain-Behavior Associations: A Tutorial and a Comparative Study.

Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and partial least squares (PLS) are powerful multivariate methods for capturing associations across 2 modalities of data (e.g., brain and behavior). However, when the sample size is similar to or smaller than the number of variables in the data, standard CCA and PLS models may overfit, i.e., find spurious associations that generalize poorly to new data. Dimensionality reduction and regularized extensions of CCA and PLS have been proposed to address this problem, yet most studies using these approaches have some limitations. This work gives a theoretical and practical introduction into the most common CCA/PLS models and their regularized variants. We examine the limitations of standard CCA and PLS when the sample size is similar to or smaller than the number of variables. We discuss how dimensionality reduction and regularization techniques address this problem and explain their main advantages and disadvantages. We highlight crucial aspects of the CCA/PLS analysis framework, including optimizing the hyperparameters of the model and testing the identified associations for statistical significance. We apply the described CCA/PLS models to simulated data and real data from the Human Connectome Project and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (both of n > 500). We use both low- and high-dimensionality versions of these data (i.e., ratios between sample size and variables in the range of ∼1-10 and ∼0.1-0.01, respectively) to demonstrate the impact of data dimensionality on the models. Finally, we summarize the key lessons of the tutorial.

Network topological determinants of pathogen spread.

How do we best constrain social interactions to decrease transmission of communicable diseases? Indiscriminate suppression is unsustainable long term and presupposes that all interactions carry equal importance. Instead, transmission within a social network has been shown to be determined by its topology. In this paper, we deploy simulations to understand and quantify the impact on disease transmission of a set of topological network features, building a dataset of 9000 interaction graphs using generators of different types of synthetic social networks. Independently of the topology of the network, we maintain constant the total volume of social interactions in our simulations, to show how even with the same social contact some network structures are more or less resilient to the spread. We find a suitable intervention to be specific suppression of unfamiliar and casual interactions that contribute to the network's global efficiency. This is, pathogen spread is significantly reduced by limiting specific kinds of contact rather than their global number. Our numerical studies might inspire further investigation in connection to public health, as an integrative framework to craft and evaluate social interventions in communicable diseases with different social graphs or as a highlight of network metrics that should be captured in social studies.

Road map for research on responsible artificial intelligence for development (AI4D) in African countries: The case study of agriculture.

Individuals from a diverse range of backgrounds are increasingly engaging in research and development in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The main activities, although still nascent, are coalescing around three core activities: innovation, policy, and capacity building. Within agriculture, which is the focus of this paper, AI is working with converging technologies, particularly data optimization, to add value along the entire agricultural value chain, including procurement, farm automation, and market access. Our key takeaway is that, despite the promising opportunities for development, there are actual and potential challenges that African countries need to consider in deciding whether to scale up or down the application of AI in agriculture. Input from African innovators, policymakers, and academics is essential to ensure that AI solutions are aligned with African needs and priorities. This paper proposes questions that can be used to form a road map to inform research and development in this area.

PAC-Bayes Unleashed: Generalisation Bounds with Unbounded Losses.

We present new PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for learning problems with unbounded loss functions. This extends the relevance and applicability of the PAC-Bayes learning framework, where most of the existing literature focuses on supervised learning problems with a bounded loss function (typically assumed to take values in the interval [0;1]). In order to relax this classical assumption, we propose to allow the range of the loss to depend on each predictor. This relaxation is captured by our new notion of HYPothesis-dependent rangE (HYPE). Based on this, we derive a novel PAC-Bayesian generalisation bound for unbounded loss functions, and we instantiate it on a linear regression problem. To make our theory usable by the largest audience possible, we include discussions on actual computation, practicality and limitations of our assumptions.

Predicting T Cell Receptor Antigen Specificity From Structural Features Derived From Homology Models of Receptor-Peptide-Major Histocompatibility Complexes.

The physical interaction between the T cell receptor (TCR) and its cognate antigen causes T cells to activate and participate in the immune response. Understanding this physical interaction is important in predicting TCR binding to a target epitope, as well as potential cross-reactivity. Here, we propose a way of collecting informative features of the binding interface from homology models of T cell receptor-peptide-major histocompatibility complex (TCR-pMHC) complexes. The information collected from these structures is sufficient to discriminate binding from non-binding TCR-pMHC pairs in multiple independent datasets. The classifier is limited by the number of crystal structures available for the homology modelling and by the size of the training set. However, the classifier shows comparable performance to sequence-based classifiers requiring much larger training sets.

Corrigendum: Predicting T Cell Receptor Antigen Specificity From Structural Features Derived From Homology Models of Receptor-Peptide-Major Histocompatibility Complexes.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2021.730908.].

Data-driven malaria prevalence prediction in large densely populated urban holoendemic sub-Saharan West Africa.

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half-million deaths annually. The development of malaria prevalence prediction systems to support malaria care pathways has been hindered by lack of data, a tendency towards universal "monolithic" models (one-size-fits-all-regions) and a focus on long lead time predictions. Current systems do not provide short-term local predictions at an accuracy suitable for deployment in clinical practice. Here we show a data-driven approach that reliably produces one-month-ahead prevalence prediction within a densely populated all-year-round malaria metropolis of over 3.5 million inhabitants situated in Nigeria which has one of the largest global burdens of P. falciparum malaria. We estimate one-month-ahead prevalence in a unique 22-years prospective regional dataset of > 9 × 104 participants attending our healthcare services. Our system agrees with both magnitude and direction of the prediction on validation data achieving MAE ≤ 6 × 10-2, MSE ≤ 7 × 10-3, PCC (median 0.63, IQR 0.3) and with more than 80% of estimates within a (+ 0.1 to - 0.05) error-tolerance range which is clinically relevant for decision-support in our holoendemic setting. Our data-driven approach could facilitate healthcare systems to harness their own data to support local malaria care pathways.

The Human Behaviour-Change Project: An artificial intelligence system to answer questions about changing behaviour.

Changing behaviour is necessary to address many of the threats facing human populations.  However, identifying behaviour change interventions likely to be effective in particular contexts as a basis for improving them presents a major challenge. The Human Behaviour-Change Project harnesses the power of artificial intelligence and behavioural science to organise global evidence about behaviour change to predict outcomes in common and unknown behaviour change scenarios.

Expert-level automated malaria diagnosis on routine blood films with deep neural networks.

Over 200 million malaria cases globally lead to half a million deaths annually. Accurate malaria diagnosis remains a challenge. Automated imaging processing approaches to analyze Thick Blood Films (TBF) could provide scalable solutions, for urban healthcare providers in the holoendemic malaria sub-Saharan region. Although several approaches have been attempted to identify malaria parasites in TBF, none have achieved negative and positive predictive performance suitable for clinical use in the west sub-Saharan region. While malaria parasite object detection remains an intermediary step in achieving automatic patient diagnosis, training state-of-the-art deep-learning object detectors requires the human-expert labor-intensive process of labeling a large dataset of digitized TBF. To overcome these challenges and to achieve a clinically usable system, we show a novel approach. It leverages routine clinical-microscopy labels from our quality-controlled malaria clinics, to train a Deep Malaria Convolutional Neural Network classifier (DeepMCNN) for automated malaria diagnosis. Our system also provides total Malaria Parasite (MP) and White Blood Cell (WBC) counts allowing parasitemia estimation in MP/µL, as recommended by the WHO. Prospective validation of the DeepMCNN achieves sensitivity/specificity of 0.92/0.90 against expert-level malaria diagnosis. Our approach PPV/NPV performance is of 0.92/0.90, which is clinically usable in our holoendemic settings in the densely populated metropolis of Ibadan. It is located within the most populous African country (Nigeria) and with one of the largest burdens of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Our openly available method is of importance for strategies aimed to scale malaria diagnosis in urban regions where daily assessment of thousands of specimens is required.

Multiple Holdouts With Stability: Improving the Generalizability of Machine Learning Analyses of Brain-Behavior Relationships.

BACKGROUND: In 2009, the National Institute of Mental Health launched the Research Domain Criteria, an attempt to move beyond diagnostic categories and ground psychiatry within neurobiological constructs that combine different levels of measures (e.g., brain imaging and behavior). Statistical methods that can integrate such multimodal data, however, are often vulnerable to overfitting, poor generalization, and difficulties in interpreting the results. METHODS: We propose an innovative machine learning framework combining multiple holdouts and a stability criterion with regularized multivariate techniques, such as sparse partial least squares and kernel canonical correlation analysis, for identifying hidden dimensions of cross-modality relationships. To illustrate the approach, we investigated structural brain-behavior associations in an extensively phenotyped developmental sample of 345 participants (312 healthy and 33 with clinical depression). The brain data consisted of whole-brain voxel-based gray matter volumes, and the behavioral data included item-level self-report questionnaires and IQ and demographic measures. RESULTS: Both sparse partial least squares and kernel canonical correlation analysis captured two hidden dimensions of brain-behavior relationships: one related to age and drinking and the other one related to depression. The applied machine learning framework indicates that these results are stable and generalize well to new data. Indeed, the identified brain-behavior associations are in agreement with previous findings in the literature concerning age, alcohol use, and depression-related changes in brain volume. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate techniques (such as sparse partial least squares and kernel canonical correlation analysis) embedded in our novel framework are promising tools to link behavior and/or symptoms to neurobiology and thus have great potential to contribute to a biologically grounded definition of psychiatric disorders.

Combining heterogeneous data sources for neuroimaging based diagnosis: re-weighting and selecting what is important.

Combining neuroimaging and clinical information for diagnosis, as for example behavioral tasks and genetics characteristics, is potentially beneficial but presents challenges in terms of finding the best data representation for the different sources of information. Their simple combination usually does not provide an improvement if compared with using the best source alone. In this paper, we proposed a framework based on a recent multiple kernel learning algorithm called EasyMKL and we investigated the benefits of this approach for diagnosing two different mental health diseases. The well known Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset tackling the Alzheimer Disease (AD) patients versus healthy controls classification task, and a second dataset tackling the task of classifying an heterogeneous group of depressed patients versus healthy controls. We used EasyMKL to combine a huge amount of basic kernels alongside a feature selection methodology, pursuing an optimal and sparse solution to facilitate interpretability. Our results show that the proposed approach, called EasyMKLFS, outperforms baselines (e.g. SVM and SimpleMKL), state-of-the-art random forests (RF) and feature selection (FS) methods.

Parsimonious test of dynamic interaction.

In recent years, there have been significant advances in the technology used to collect data on the movement and activity patterns of humans and animals. GPS units, which form the primary source of location data, have become cheaper, more accurate, lighter and less power-hungry, and their accuracy has been further improved with the addition of inertial measurement units. The consequence is a glut of geospatial time series data, recorded at rates that range from one position fix every several hours (to maximize system lifetime) to ten fixes per second (in high dynamic situations). Since data of this quality and volume have only recently become available, the analytical methods to extract behavioral information from raw position data are at an early stage of development. An instance of this lies in the analysis of animal movement patterns. When investigating solitary animals, the timing and location of instances of avoidance and association are important behavioral markers. In this paper, a novel analytical method to detect avoidance and association between individuals is proposed; unlike existing methods, assumptions about the shape of the territories or the nature of individual movement are not needed. Simulations demonstrate that false positives (type I error) are rare (1%-3%), which means that the test rarely suggests that there is an association if there is none.

The Human Behaviour-Change Project: harnessing the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning for evidence synthesis and interpretation.

BACKGROUND: Behaviour change is key to addressing both the challenges facing human health and wellbeing and to promoting the uptake of research findings in health policy and practice. We need to make better use of the vast amount of accumulating evidence from behaviour change intervention (BCI) evaluations and promote the uptake of that evidence into a wide range of contexts. The scale and complexity of the task of synthesising and interpreting this evidence, and increasing evidence timeliness and accessibility, will require increased computer support. The Human Behaviour-Change Project (HBCP) will use Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to (i) develop and evaluate a 'Knowledge System' that automatically extracts, synthesises and interprets findings from BCI evaluation reports to generate new insights about behaviour change and improve prediction of intervention effectiveness and (ii) allow users, such as practitioners, policy makers and researchers, to easily and efficiently query the system to get answers to variants of the question 'What works, compared with what, how well, with what exposure, with what behaviours (for how long), for whom, in what settings and why?'. METHODS: The HBCP will: a) develop an ontology of BCI evaluations and their reports linking effect sizes for given target behaviours with intervention content and delivery and mechanisms of action, as moderated by exposure, populations and settings; b) develop and train an automated feature extraction system to annotate BCI evaluation reports using this ontology; c) develop and train machine learning and reasoning algorithms to use the annotated BCI evaluation reports to predict effect sizes for particular combinations of behaviours, interventions, populations and settings; d) build user and machine interfaces for interrogating and updating the knowledge base; and e) evaluate all the above in terms of performance and utility. DISCUSSION: The HBCP aims to revolutionise our ability to synthesise, interpret and deliver evidence on behaviour change interventions that is up-to-date and tailored to user need and context. This will enhance the usefulness, and support the implementation of, that evidence.

Eyetracking Metrics in Young Onset Alzheimer's Disease: A Window into Cognitive Visual Functions.

Young onset Alzheimer's disease (YOAD) is defined as symptom onset before the age of 65 years and is particularly associated with phenotypic heterogeneity. Atypical presentations, such as the clinic-radiological visual syndrome posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), often lead to delays in accurate diagnosis. Eyetracking has been used to demonstrate basic oculomotor impairments in individuals with dementia. In the present study, we aim to explore the relationship between eyetracking metrics and standard tests of visual cognition in individuals with YOAD. Fifty-seven participants were included: 36 individuals with YOAD (n = 26 typical AD; n = 10 PCA) and 21 age-matched healthy controls. Participants completed three eyetracking experiments: fixation, pro-saccade, and smooth pursuit tasks. Summary metrics were used as outcome measures and their predictive value explored looking at correlations with visuoperceptual and visuospatial metrics. Significant correlations between eyetracking metrics and standard visual cognitive estimates are reported. A machine-learning approach using a classification method based on the smooth pursuit raw eyetracking data discriminates with approximately 95% accuracy patients and controls in cross-validation tests. Results suggest that the eyetracking paradigms of a relatively simple and specific nature provide measures not only reflecting basic oculomotor characteristics but also predicting higher order visuospatial and visuoperceptual impairments. Eyetracking measures can represent extremely useful markers during the diagnostic phase and may be exploited as potential outcome measures for clinical trials.

Specificity, Privacy, and Degeneracy in the CD4 T Cell Receptor Repertoire Following Immunization.

T cells recognize antigen using a large and diverse set of antigen-specific receptors created by a complex process of imprecise somatic cell gene rearrangements. In response to antigen-/receptor-binding-specific T cells then divide to form memory and effector populations. We apply high-throughput sequencing to investigate the global changes in T cell receptor sequences following immunization with ovalbumin (OVA) and adjuvant, to understand how adaptive immunity achieves specificity. Each immunized mouse contained a predominantly private but related set of expanded CDR3ß sequences. We used machine learning to identify common patterns which distinguished repertoires from mice immunized with adjuvant with and without OVA. The CDR3ß sequences were deconstructed into sets of overlapping contiguous amino acid triplets. The frequencies of these motifs were used to train the linear programming boosting (LPBoost) algorithm LPBoost to classify between TCR repertoires. LPBoost could distinguish between the two classes of repertoire with accuracies above 80%, using a small subset of triplet sequences present at defined positions along the CDR3. The results suggest a model in which such motifs confer degenerate antigen specificity in the context of a highly diverse and largely private set of T cell receptors.

Feature selection using a one dimensional naïve Bayes' classifier increases the accuracy of support vector machine classification of CDR3 repertoires.

Motivation: Somatic DNA recombination, the hallmark of vertebrate adaptive immunity, has the potential to generate a vast diversity of antigen receptor sequences. How this diversity captures antigen specificity remains incompletely understood. In this study we use high throughput sequencing to compare the global changes in T cell receptor ß chain complementarity determining region 3 (CDR3ß) sequences following immunization with ovalbumin administered with complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA) or CFA alone. Results: The CDR3ß sequences were deconstructed into short stretches of overlapping contiguous amino acids. The motifs were ranked according to a one-dimensional Bayesian classifier score comparing their frequency in the repertoires of the two immunization classes. The top ranking motifs were selected and used to create feature vectors which were used to train a support vector machine. The support vector machine achieved high classification scores in a leave-one-out validation test reaching >90% in some cases. Summary: The study describes a novel two-stage classification strategy combining a one-dimensional Bayesian classifier with a support vector machine. Using this approach we demonstrate that the frequency of a small number of linear motifs three amino acids in length can accurately identify a CD4 T cell response to ovalbumin against a background response to the complex mixture of antigens which characterize Complete Freund's Adjuvant. Availability and implementation: The sequence data is available at www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sra/?term»SRP075893 . The Decombinator package is available at github.com/innate2adaptive/Decombinator . The R package e1071 is available at the CRAN repository https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/e1071/index.html . Contact: b.chain@ucl.ac.uk. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Neural Candidate-Selector Architecture for Automatic Structured Clinical Text Annotation.

We consider the task of automatically annotating free texts describing clinical trials with concepts from a controlled, structured medical vocabulary. Specifically we aim to build a model to infer distinct sets of (ontological) concepts describing complementary clinically salient aspects of the underlying trials: the populations enrolled, the interventions administered and the outcomes measured, i.e., the PICO elements. This important practical problem poses a few key challenges. One issue is that the output space is vast, because the vocabulary comprises many unique concepts. Compounding this problem, annotated data in this domain is expensive to collect and hence sparse. Furthermore, the outputs (sets of concepts for each PICO element) are correlated: specific populations (e.g., diabetics) will render certain intervention concepts likely (insulin therapy) while effectively precluding others (radiation therapy). Such correlations should be exploited. We propose a novel neural model that addresses these challenges. We introduce a Candidate-Selector architecture in which the model considers setes of candidate concepts for PICO elements, and assesses their plausibility conditioned on the input text to be annotated. This relies on a 'candidate set' generator, which may be learned or relies on heuristics. A conditional discriminative neural model then jointly selects candidate concepts, given the input text. We compare the predictive performance of our approach to strong baselines, and show that it outperforms them. Finally, we perform a qualitative evaluation of the generated annotations by asking domain experts to assess their quality.

A multiple hold-out framework for Sparse Partial Least Squares.

BACKGROUND: Supervised classification machine learning algorithms may have limitations when studying brain diseases with heterogeneous populations, as the labels might be unreliable. More exploratory approaches, such as Sparse Partial Least Squares (SPLS), may provide insights into the brain's mechanisms by finding relationships between neuroimaging and clinical/demographic data. The identification of these relationships has the potential to improve the current understanding of disease mechanisms, refine clinical assessment tools, and stratify patients. SPLS finds multivariate associative effects in the data by computing pairs of sparse weight vectors, where each pair is used to remove its corresponding associative effect from the data by matrix deflation, before computing additional pairs. NEW METHOD: We propose a novel SPLS framework which selects the adequate number of voxels and clinical variables to describe each associative effect, and tests their reliability by fitting the model to different splits of the data. As a proof of concept, the approach was applied to find associations between grey matter probability maps and individual items of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in a clinical sample with various degrees of dementia. RESULTS: The framework found two statistically significant associative effects between subsets of brain voxels and subsets of the questions/tasks. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHODS: SPLS was compared with its non-sparse version (PLS). The use of projection deflation versus a classical PLS deflation was also tested in both PLS and SPLS. CONCLUSIONS: SPLS outperformed PLS, finding statistically significant effects and providing higher correlation values in hold-out data. Moreover, projection deflation provided better results.

Computational analysis of stochastic heterogeneity in PCR amplification efficiency revealed by single molecule barcoding.

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is one of the most widely used techniques in molecular biology. In combination with High Throughput Sequencing (HTS), PCR is widely used to quantify transcript abundance for RNA-seq, and in the context of analysis of T and B cell receptor repertoires. In this study, we combine DNA barcoding with HTS to quantify PCR output from individual target molecules. We develop computational tools that simulate both the PCR branching process itself, and the subsequent subsampling which typically occurs during HTS sequencing. We explore the influence of different types of heterogeneity on sequencing output, and compare them to experimental results where the efficiency of amplification is measured by barcodes uniquely identifying each molecule of starting template. Our results demonstrate that the PCR process introduces substantial amplification heterogeneity, independent of primer sequence and bulk experimental conditions. This heterogeneity can be attributed both to inherited differences between different template DNA molecules, and the inherent stochasticity of the PCR process. The results demonstrate that PCR heterogeneity arises even when reaction and substrate conditions are kept as constant as possible, and therefore single molecule barcoding is essential in order to derive reproducible quantitative results from any protocol combining PCR with HTS.