Impact of alternative Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions strategies for controlling COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh: A modeling study.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major health concern in Bangladesh until very recently. Although the Bangladesh government has employed various infection control strategies, more targeted Non-Pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school closure, mask-wearing, hand washing, and social distancing have gained special attention. Despite significant long-term adverse effects of school closures, authorities have opted to keep schools closed to curb the spread of COVID-19 infection. However, there is limited knowledge about the impact of reopening schools alongside other NPI measures on the course of the epidemic. In this study, we implemented a mathematical modeling framework developed by the CoMo Consortium to explore the impact of NPIs on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and deaths for Bangladesh. For robustness, the results of prediction models are then validated through model calibration with incidence and mortality data and using external sources. Hypothetical projections are made under alternative NPIs where we compare the impact of current NPIs with school closures versus enhanced NPIs with school openings. Results suggest that enhanced NPIs with schools opened may have lower COVID-19 related prevalence and deaths. This finding indicates that enhanced NPIs and school openings may mitigate the long-term negative impacts of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries. Potential shortcomings and ways to improve the research are also discussed.

Resiliency of healthcare expenditure to income shock: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panels.

Using the World Bank data over the period of 1960-2019, this study aims at estimating the resiliency of health expenditures against gross domestic product (GDP). Long-run and short-run elasticities are calculated using the type of panel time series methods that are exclusively designed for dynamic heterogeneous panels: Mean Group, Pooled Mean Group, and Dynamic Fixed Effects estimators. These methods permit better estimations of elasticity with considerable heterogeneity across the 177 countries included in this study. Along with a standard elasticity estimation, this study estimates country-specific long-run and short-run elasticities along with error correction components. The study finds that the long-run elasticity of income is very close to unity, but short-run coefficients are insignificant for most nations. In addition, most countries revert to long-run equilibrium reasonably quickly if there is shock as the error correction coefficients are negative and, in many cases, very close to one. While for most developed countries, the short-run elasticities are lower in comparison with the short-run elasticities of developing countries indicating that many developing countries may face a larger decrease in health expenditure with the forecasted decline in income due to impending economic recession. Therefore, although this study is not directly intended to capture the post-COVID-19 effects, the study estimates may project the potential responses in health expenditure across countries due to potential income shocks.

Effect of easing lockdown and restriction measures on COVID-19 epidemic projection: A case study of Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVES: In this study we compared two predictions of COVID-19 cases in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) using pre-and post-relaxation of lockdown period data to provide an insight regarding rational exit strategies. We also applied these projections to understand economic costs versus health benefit of lockdown measures. METHODS: We analyzed open access data on COVID-19 cases from March 6 to January 16, 2021 in the KSA. To understand the epidemic projection during the pre- and post-lockdown period, we used two types of modeling: the SIR model, and the time series model. We also estimated the costs and benefits of lockdown- QALY gained compared to the costs of lockdown considering the payment threshold of the Government. RESULTS: Prediction using lockdown period data suggested that the epidemic might slow down significantly after 109 thousand cases and end on October 6, 2020. However, analysis with latest data after easing lockdown measures suggested that epidemic might be close to an end on October 28, 2021 with 358 thousand cases. The peak has also been shifted from May 18, 2020 to Jun 24, 2020. While earlier model predicted a steady growth in mid-June, the revised model with latest data predicted it in mid-August. In addition, we estimated that 4986 lives would have been saved if lockdown continued but the cost per life saved would be more than $378 thousand, which is way above not only the KSA threshold, but also the threshold of any other highly advanced economies such as the UK and the USA. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that relaxation of lockdown measures negatively impacts the epidemic. However, considering the negative impact of prolong lockdown measures on health and economy, countries must decide on the best timing and strategy to exit from such measures to safely return to normal life with minimum loss of lives and economy considering its economic and health systems' capacity. Instead of focusing only on health, a balanced approach taking economy under consideration is recommended.

The Economic Cost of Tobacco Farming in Bangladesh.

The extent of tobacco cultivation remains substantially high in Bangladesh, which is the 12th largest tobacco producer in the world. Using data from a household survey of current, former, and never tobacco farmers, based on a multi-stage stratified sampling design with a mix of purposive and random sampling of households, this study estimated the financial and economic profitability per acre of land used for tobacco cultivation. The environmental effects of tobacco cultivation on land and water resources were estimated using laboratory tests of sample water and soil collected from tobacco-cultivating and non-tobacco cultivating areas. The study finds that tobacco cultivation turns into a losing concern when the opportunity costs of unpaid family labour and other owned resources, and the health effects of tobacco cultivation are included. Tobacco cultivation poses a significantly high environmental cost that causes a net loss to society. Nevertheless, the availability of unpaid family labour and the options of advanced credit as well as a buy back guarantee from the tobacco companies attract farmers to engage in and continue tobacco cultivation. Therefore, supply side interventions to curb the tobacco epidemic in Bangladesh need to address major drivers of tobacco cultivation to correct the wrong incentives and motivate tobacco farmers to switch to alternative livelihood options.