Spatiotemporal assessment of the nexus between urban sprawl and land surface temperature as microclimatic effect: implications for urban planning.

Rapid urbanisation has led to significant environmental and climatic changes worldwide, especially in urban heat islands where increased land surface temperature (LST) poses a major challenge to sustainable urban living. In the city of Abha in southwestern Saudi Arabia, a region experiencing rapid urban growth, the impact of such expansion on LST and the resulting microclimatic changes are still poorly understood. This study aims to explore the dynamics of urban sprawl and its direct impact on LST to provide important insights for urban planning and climate change mitigation strategies. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm optimised for land use and land cover (LULC) mapping, LULC models were derived that had an overall accuracy of 87.70%, 86.27% and 93.53% for 1990, 2000 and 2020, respectively. The mono-window algorithm facilitated the derivation of LST, while Markovian transition matrices and spatial linear regression models assessed LULC dynamics and LST trends. Notably, built-up areas grew from 69.40 km2 in 1990 to 338.74 km2 in 2020, while LST in urban areas showed a pronounced warming trend, with temperatures increasing from an average of 43.71 °C in 1990 to 50.46 °C in 2020. Six landscape fragmentation indices were then calculated for urban areas over three decades. The results show that the Largest Patch Index (LPI) increases from 22.78 in 1990 to 65.24 in 2020, and the number of patches (NP) escalates from 2,531 in 1990 to an impressive 10,710 in 2020. Further regression analyses highlighted the morphological changes in the cities and attributed almost 97% of the LST variability to these urban patch dynamics. In addition, water bodies showed a cooling trend with a temperature decrease from 33.76 °C in 2000 to 29.69 °C in 2020, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. The conclusion emphasises the urgent need for sustainable urban planning to counteract the warming trends associated with urban sprawl and promote climate resilience.

Decoding seasonal variability of air pollutants with climate factors: A geostatistical approach using multimodal regression models for informed climate change mitigation.

In response to changes in climatic patterns, a profound comprehension of air pollutants (AP) variability is vital for enhancing climate models and facilitating informed decision-making in nations susceptible to climate change. Earlier research primarily depended on limited models, potentially neglecting intricate relationships and not fully encapsulating associations. This study, in contrast, probed the spatiotemporal variability of airborne particles (CO, CH4, SO2, and NO2) under varying climatic conditions within a climate-sensitive nation, utilizing multiple regression models. Spatial and seasonal AP data were acquired via the Google Earth Engine platform, which indicated elevated AP concentrations in primarily urban areas. Remarkably, the average airborne particle levels were lower in 2020 than in 2019, though they escalated during winter. The study employed linear regression, Pearson's correlation (PC), Spearman rank correlation models, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to probe the relationship between pollutant variability and climatic elements such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. Across all seasons, APs showed a negative correlation with rainfall while displaying positive correlations with temperature and humidity. The GWR and PC models produced the most reliable results from all the models employed, with the GWR model superseding the rest. Moreover, heightened aerosol levels were detected within a rainfall range of 600 mm/season, a temperature range of 25-30 °C, and humidity levels of 75 %-85 %. Overall, this study emphasizes the growing levels of APs in correlation with meteorological changes. By adopting a comprehensive approach and considering multiple factors, this research provides a more sophisticated understanding of the relationship between AP variability and climatic shifts.

Assessment of long-term mangrove distribution using optimised machine learning algorithms and landscape pattern analysis.

Mangrove ecosystems provide numerous benefits, including carbon storage, coastal protection and food for marine organisms. However, mapping and monitoring of mangrove status in some regions, such as the Red Sea area, has been hindered by a lack of data, accurate and precise maps and technical expertise. In this study, an advanced machine learning algorithm was proposed to produce an accurate and precise high-resolution land use map that includes mangroves in the Al Wajh Bank habitat in northeastern Saudi Arabia. To achieve this, high-resolution multispectral images were generated using an image fusion technique, and machine learning algorithms were applied, including artificial neural networks, random forests and support vector machine algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using various matrices, and changes in mangrove distribution and connectivity were assessed using the landscape fragmentation model and Getis-Ord statistics. The research gap that this study aims to address is the lack of accurate and precise mapping and assessment of mangrove status in the Red Sea area, particularly in data-scarce regions. Our study produced high-resolution mobile laser scanning (MLS) imagery of 15-m length for 2014 and 2022, and trained 5, 6 and 9 models for artificial neural networks, support vector machines and random forests (RF) to predict land use and land cover maps using 15-m and 30-m resolution MLS images. The best models were identified using error matrices, and it was found that RF outperformed other models. According to the 15-m resolution map of 2022 and the best models of RF, the mangrove cover in the Al Wajh Bank is 27.6 km2, which increased to 34.99 km2 in the case of the 30-m resolution image of 2022, and was 11.94 km2 in 2014, indicating a doubling of the mangrove area. Landscape structure analysis revealed an increase in small core and hotspot areas, which were converted into medium core and very large hotspot areas in 2014. New mangrove areas were identified in the form of patches, edges, potholes and coldspots. The connectivity model showed an increase in connectivity over time, promoting biodiversity. Our study contributes to the promotion of the protection, conservation and planting of mangroves in the Red Sea area.

Modeling the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land surface temperature and its relationship with land use land cover using geo-statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms.

Rapid changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have ecological and environmental effects in metropolitan areas. Since the 1990s, Saudi Arabia's cities have undergone tremendous urban growth, causing urban heat islands, groundwater depletion, air pollution, loss of ecosystem services, etc. This study evaluates the variance and heterogeneity in land surface temperature (LST) because of LULC changes in Abha-Khamis Mushyet, Saudi Arabia, from 1990 to 2020. The research aims to determine the impact of urban biophysical parameters on the High-High (H-H) LST cluster using geospatial, statistical, and machine learning techniques. The support vector machine (SVM) was used to map LULC. The land surface temperature (LST) has been derived using the mono-window algorithm (MWA). The local indicator of spatial associations (LISA) model was implemented on the spatiotemporal LST maps to identify LST clusters. Also, the parallel coordinate plot (PCP) approach was employed to examine the relationship between LST clusters and urban biophysical variables as a proxy of LULC. LULC maps show that urban areas rose by > 330% between 1990 and 2020. Built-up areas had an 83.6% transitional probability between 1990 and 2020. In addition, vegetation and agricultural land have been transformed into built-up areas by 17.9% and 21.8% respectively between 1990 and 2020. Uneven LULC changes in terms of built-up areas lead to increased LST hotspots. High normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) was linked to LST hotspots but not normalized difference water index (NDWI) or normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This research could help policymakers develop mitigation strategies for urban heat islands.