Rapid Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Risk for Fecally Contaminated River Water.

Following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), airborne water droplets have been identified as the main transmission route. Identifying and breaking all viable transmission routes are critical to stop future outbreaks, and the potential of transmission by water has been highlighted. By modifying established approaches, we provide a method for the rapid assessment of the risk of transmission posed by fecally contaminated river water and give example results for 39 countries. The country relative risk of transmission posed by fecally contaminated river water is related to the environment and the populations' infection rate and water usage. On the basis of in vitro data and using temperature as the primary controller of survival, we then demonstrate how viral loads likely decrease after a spill. These methods using readily available data suggest that sewage spills into rivers within countries with high infection rates could provide infectious doses of >40 copies per 100 mL of water. The approach, implemented in the supplementary spreadsheet, can provide a fast estimate of the upper and lower viral load ranges following a riverine spill. The results enable evidence-based research recommendations for wastewater epidemiology and could be used to evaluate the significance of fecal-oral transmission within freshwater systems.

Revised estimates of ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux are consistent with ocean carbon inventory.

The ocean is a sink for ~25% of the atmospheric CO2 emitted by human activities, an amount in excess of 2 petagrams of carbon per year (PgC yr-1). Time-resolved estimates of global ocean-atmosphere CO2 flux provide an important constraint on the global carbon budget. However, previous estimates of this flux, derived from surface ocean CO2 concentrations, have not corrected the data for temperature gradients between the surface and sampling at a few meters depth, or for the effect of the cool ocean surface skin. Here we calculate a time history of ocean-atmosphere CO2 fluxes from 1992 to 2018, corrected for these effects. These increase the calculated net flux into the oceans by 0.8-0.9 PgC yr-1, at times doubling uncorrected values. We estimate uncertainties using multiple interpolation methods, finding convergent results for fluxes globally after 2000, or over the Northern Hemisphere throughout the period. Our corrections reconcile surface uptake with independent estimates of the increase in ocean CO2 inventory, and suggest most ocean models underestimate uptake.

Winter weather controls net influx of atmospheric CO2 on the north-west European shelf.

Shelf seas play an important role in the global carbon cycle, absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and exporting carbon (C) to the open ocean and sediments. The magnitude of these processes is poorly constrained, because observations are typically interpolated over multiple years. Here, we used 298500 observations of CO2 fugacity (fCO2) from a single year (2015), to estimate the net influx of atmospheric CO2 as 26.2 ± 4.7 Tg C yr-1 over the open NW European shelf. CO2 influx from the atmosphere was dominated by influx during winter as a consequence of high winds, despite a smaller, thermally-driven, air-sea fCO2 gradient compared to the larger, biologically-driven summer gradient. In order to understand this climate regulation service, we constructed a carbon-budget supplemented by data from the literature, where the NW European shelf is treated as a box with carbon entering and leaving the box. This budget showed that net C-burial was a small sink of 1.3 ± 3.1 Tg C yr-1, while CO2 efflux from estuaries to the atmosphere, removed the majority of river C-inputs. In contrast, the input from the Baltic Sea likely contributes to net export via the continental shelf pump and advection (34.4 ± 6.0 Tg C yr-1).

A generic approach for the development of short-term predictions of Escherichia coli and biotoxins in shellfish.

Microbiological contamination or elevated marine biotoxin concentrations within shellfish can result in temporary closure of shellfish aquaculture harvesting, leading to financial loss for the aquaculture business and a potential reduction in consumer confidence in shellfish products. We present a method for predicting short-term variations in shellfish concentrations of Escherichia coli and biotoxin (okadaic acid and its derivates dinophysistoxins and pectenotoxins). The approach was evaluated for 2 contrasting shellfish harvesting areas. Through a meta-data analysis and using environmental data (in situ, satellite observations and meteorological nowcasts and forecasts), key environmental drivers were identified and used to develop models to predict E. coli and biotoxin concentrations within shellfish. Models were trained and evaluated using independent datasets, and the best models were identified based on the model exhibiting the lowest root mean square error. The best biotoxin model was able to provide 1 wk forecasts with an accuracy of 86%, a 0% false positive rate and a 0% false discovery rate (n = 78 observations) when used to predict the closure of shellfish beds due to biotoxin. The best E. coli models were used to predict the European hygiene classification of the shellfish beds to an accuracy of 99% (n = 107 observations) and 98% (n = 63 observations) for a bay (St Austell Bay) and an estuary (Turnaware Bar), respectively. This generic approach enables high accuracy short-term farm-specific forecasts, based on readily accessible environmental data and observations.

Design and operation of a low-cost and compact autonomous buoy system for use in coastal aquaculture and water quality monitoring.

The need to ensure future food security and issues of varying estuarine water quality is driving the expansion of aquaculture into near-shore coastal waters. It is prudent to fully evaluate new or proposed aquaculture sites, prior to any substantial financial investment in infrastructure and staffing. Measurements of water temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen can be used to gain insight into the physical, chemical and biological water quality conditions within a farm site, towards identifying its suitability for farming, both for the stock species of interest and for assessing the potential risk from harmful or toxic algae. The latter can cause closure of shellfish harvesting. Unfortunately, commercial scientific monitoring systems can be cost prohibitive for small organisations and companies to purchase and operate. Here we describe the design, construction and deployment of a low cost (<£ 5000) monitoring buoy suitable for use within a near-shore aquaculture farm or bathing waters. The mooring includes a suite of sensors designed for supporting and understanding variations in near-shore physical, chemical and biological water quality. The system has been designed so that it can be operated and maintained by non-scientific staff, whilst still providing good quality scientific data. Data collected from two deployments totalling 14 months, one in a coastal bay location, another in an estuary, have illustrated the robust design and provided insight into the suitability of these sites for aquaculture and the potential occurrence of a toxin causing algae (Dinophysis spp.). The instruments maintained good accuracy during the deployments when compared to independent in situ measurements (e.g. RMSE 0.13-0.16 °C, bias 0.03-0.08 °C) enabling stratification and biological features to be identified, along with confirming that the waters were suitable for mussel (Mytilus spp.) and lobster (Homarus gammarus) aquaculture, whilst sites showed conditions agreeable for Dinophysis spp.