Genomic epidemiology uncovers the timing and origin of the emergence of mpox in humans.

Five years before the 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak Nigeria reported its first cases in nearly 40 years, with the ongoing epidemic since driven by sustained human-to-human transmission. However, limited genomic data has left questions about the timing and origin of the mpox virus' (MPXV) emergence. Here we generated 112 MPXV genomes from Nigeria from 2021-2023. We identify the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic in southern Nigeria, and estimate that the lineage transmitting from human-to-human emerged around July 2014, circulating cryptically until detected in September 2017. The epidemic originated in Southern Nigeria, particularly Rivers State, which also acted as a persistent and dominant source of viral dissemination to other states. We show that APOBEC3 activity increased MPXV's evolutionary rate twenty-fold during human-to-human transmission. We also show how Delphy, a tool for near-real-time Bayesian phylogenetics, can aid rapid outbreak analytics. Our study sheds light on MPXV's establishment in West Africa before the 2022-2023 global outbreak and highlights the need for improved pathogen surveillance and response.

Molecular epidemiology of recurrent zoonotic transmission of mpox virus in West Africa.

Nigeria and Cameroon reported their first mpox cases in over three decades in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The outbreak in Nigeria is recognised as an ongoing human epidemic. However, owing to sparse surveillance and genomic data, it is not known whether the increase in cases in Cameroon is driven by zoonotic or sustained human transmission. Notably, the frequency of zoonotic transmission remains unknown in both Cameroon and Nigeria. To address these uncertainties, we investigated the zoonotic transmission dynamics of the mpox virus (MPXV) in Cameroon and Nigeria, with a particular focus on the border regions. We show that in these regions mpox cases are still driven by zoonotic transmission of a newly identified Clade IIb.1. We identify two distinct zoonotic lineages that circulate across the Nigeria-Cameroon border, with evidence of recent and historic cross border dissemination. Our findings support that the complex cross-border forest ecosystems likely hosts shared animal populations that drive cross-border viral spread, which is likely where extant Clade IIb originated. We identify that the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic circulated in southern Nigeria in October 2013. We also show that the zoonotic precursor lineage circulated in an animal population in southern Nigeria for more than 45 years. This supports findings that southern Nigeria was the origin of the human epidemic. Our study highlights the ongoing MPXV zoonotic transmission in Cameroon and Nigeria, underscoring the continuous risk of MPXV (re)emergence.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Terrestrial Animals in Southern Nigeria: Potential Cases of Reverse Zoonosis.

Since SARS-CoV-2 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, records have suggested the occurrence of reverse zoonosis of pets and farm animals in contact with SARS-CoV-2-positive humans in the Occident. However, there is little information on the spread of the virus among animals in contact with humans in Africa. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 in various animals in Nigeria. Overall, 791 animals from Ebonyi, Ogun, Ondo, and Oyo States, Nigeria were screened for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR (n = 364) and IgG ELISA (n = 654). SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates were 45.9% (RT-qPCR) and 1.4% (ELISA). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in almost all animal taxa and sampling locations except Oyo State. SARS-CoV-2 IgGs were detected only in goats from Ebonyi and pigs from Ogun States. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 infectivity rates were higher in 2021 than in 2022. Our study highlights the ability of the virus to infect various animals. It presents the first report of natural SARS-CoV-2 infection in poultry, pigs, domestic ruminants, and lizards. The close human-animal interactions in these settings suggest ongoing reverse zoonosis, highlighting the role of behavioral factors of transmission and the potential for SARS-CoV-2 to spread among animals. These underscore the importance of continuous monitoring to detect and intervene in any eventual upsurge.

Emergence and spread of two SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest in Nigeria.

Identifying the dissemination patterns and impacts of a virus of economic or health importance during a pandemic is crucial, as it informs the public on policies for containment in order to reduce the spread of the virus. In this study, we integrated genomic and travel data to investigate the emergence and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.318 and B.1.525 (Eta) variants of interest in Nigeria and the wider Africa region. By integrating travel data and phylogeographic reconstructions, we find that these two variants that arose during the second wave in Nigeria emerged from within Africa, with the B.1.525 from Nigeria, and then spread to other parts of the world. Data from this study show how regional connectivity of Nigeria drove the spread of these variants of interest to surrounding countries and those connected by air-traffic. Our findings demonstrate the power of genomic analysis when combined with mobility and epidemiological data to identify the drivers of transmission, as bidirectional transmission within and between African nations are grossly underestimated as seen in our import risk index estimates.

Increased Prevalence of Lassa Fever Virus-Positive Rodents and Diversity of Infected Species Found during Human Lassa Fever Epidemics in Nigeria.

The dynamics of Lassa virus (LASV) infections in rodent reservoirs and their endemic human caseloads remain poorly understood. During the endemic period, human infections are believed to be associated with the seasonal migration of Mastomys natalensis, thought to be the primary reservoir that triggers multiple spillovers of LASV to humans. It has become imperative to improve LASV diagnosis in rodents while updating their prevalence in two regions of Lassa fever endemicity in Nigeria. Rodents (total, 942) were trapped in Ondo (531) and Ebonyi (411) states between October 2018 and April 2020 for detection of LASV using various tissues. Overall, the LASV prevalence was 53.6%. The outbreak area sampled in Ondo had three and two times higher capture success and LASV prevalence, respectively, than Ebonyi State. This correlated with the higher number of annual cases of Lassa fever (LF) in Ondo State versus Ebonyi State. All rodent genera (Mastomys, Rattus, Crocidura, Mus, and Tatera) captured in both states showed slightly variable LASV positivity, with Rattus spp. being the most predominantly infected (77.3%) rodents in Ondo State versus Mastomys spp. (41.6%) in Ebonyi State. The tissues with the highest LASV positivity were the kidneys, spleen, and testes. The finding of a relatively high LASV prevalence in all of the rodent genera captured highlights the complex interspecies transmission dynamics of LASV infections in the reservoirs and their potential association with increased environmental contact, as well as the risk of zoonotic spillover in these communities, which have the highest prevalence of Lassa fever in Nigeria. IMPORTANCE Our findings show the highest LASV positivity in small rodents ever recorded and the first direct detection of LASV in Tatera spp. Our findings also indicate the abundance of LASV-infected small rodents in houses, with probable interspecies transmission through vertical and horizontal coitus routes. Consequently, we suggest that the abundance of different reservoir species for LASV may fuel the epizootic outbreaks of LF in affected human communities. The high prevalence of LASV with the diversity of affected rodents has direct implications for our understanding of the transmission risk, mitigation, and ultimately, the prevention of LF in humans. Optimal tissues for LASV detection in rodents are also presented.