Analysis of vocal tract characteristics for near-term suicidal risk assessment.

OBJECTIVES: Among the many clinical decisions that psychiatrists must make, assessment of a patient's risk of committing suicide is definitely among the most important, complex and demanding. One of the authors reviewing his clinical experience observed that successful predictions of suicidality were often based on the patient's voice independent of content. The voices of suicidal patients exhibited unique qualities, which distinguished them from non-suicidal patients. In this study we investigated the discriminating power of lower order mel-cepstral coefficients among suicidal, major depressed, and non-suicidal patients. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 10 near-term suicidal patients, 10 major depressed patients, and 10 non-depressed control subjects. Gaussian mixtures were employed to model the class distributions of the extracted features. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: As a result of two-sample ML classification analyses, first four mel-cepstral coefficients yielded exceptional classification performance with correct classification scores of 80% between near-term suicidal patients and non-depressed controls, 75% between depressed patients and non-depressed controls, and 80% between near-term suicidal patients and depressed patients.

Occupation and the risk of malignant melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of malignant melanoma is increasing rapidly. The risk for development of malignant melanoma has been reported to be higher in persons of higher socioeconomic status. METHODS: This case-control study explores the relation between occupation and malignant melanoma relative risk through analysis of data collected by the American Cancer Society. A total of 1.2 million people were enrolled in a study of lifestyles and environmental factors in relation to mortality from cancer and other diseases. A total of 2780 persons had a history of malignant melanoma when the study began or developed malignant melanoma during the 6-year study follow-up period. The controls were matched for age, sex, race, and geographic location on an approximately 1:3 basis to persons selected from the remaining people enrolled. RESULTS: In men, malignant melanoma risk was significantly higher in high-paying versus low-paying occupations (odds ratio [OR], = 1.58; P < 0.001) and in white-collar versus blue-collar occupations (OR = 1.33; P < 0.001). No significant conclusions could be drawn for women. No significant difference in risk was noted between those with indoor versus outdoor occupations. Among specific occupational exposures, only exposure to X-rays significantly raised malignant melanoma risk (OR = 1.37; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Upper pay scale and white-collar occupations significantly increase the risk for development of malignant melanoma.

Risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma in patients with 'classic' atypical-mole syndrome. A case-control study.

BACKGROUND AND DESIGN: There is an increased risk of developing cutaneous malignant melanomas (MMs) in patients with classic atypical-mole syndrome (AMS). This study compares the incidence of newly diagnosed MMs in patients with classic AMS (cases) with the incidence of newly diagnosed MMs developing in a population without classic AMS (control patients). The charts of 287 white patients with AMS and 831 white patients without AMS were reviewed for the occurrence of newly diagnosed invasive MMs during follow-up. Both cases and control patients were followed up regularly by total-body cutaneous examinations. The cumulative 10-year risk for developing newly diagnosed invasive MMs was calculated (life-table method) for each cohort. RESULTS: Of the 287 AMS cases, 10 developed a newly diagnosed invasive MM, resulting in a 10-year cumulative risk of 10.7%. Of the 831 control patients, two developed a newly diagnosed invasive MM, resulting in a 10-year cumulative risk of 0.62%. CONCLUSION: Patients with classic AMS, regardless of the presence of a personal and/or family history of MM, are at significantly increased risk of developing invasive MMs compared with control patients.

Risk of another basal cell carcinoma developing after treatment of a basal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: There is an increased risk of new basal cell carcinomas (BCCs) developing in a person who has had a BCC. OBJECTIVE: This study attempts to define the magnitude of this increased risk. METHODS: The charts of 260 white patients with a histologically proven BCC were reviewed for the occurrence of new BCCs. The cumulative 5-year incidence (modified life-table method) for new BCCs developing in these patients was compared with the 5-year incidence in the general white population of the United States. RESULTS: Of the 260 patients, new BCCs developed in 137 within an average of 38.3 months, a 5-year cumulative rate of one or more new BCCs of 45.2%. The yearly risk for new BCCs developing in the study population remained high during the 5-year interval. In the general white population of the United States, the maximal 5-year incidence was calculated to be 5% (p < 0.005, chi-square test). CONCLUSION: Patients with a history of BCC require life-long follow-up because of the high probability of new BCCs developing.

Verification of a formula for determination of preexcision surgical margins from fixed-tissue melanoma specimens.

BACKGROUND: Recently our group reported on the shrinkage of 199 malignant melanoma surgical-excision specimens. In that report, a multivariate analysis revealed that the age of the patient was the only factor that significantly affected the percentage shrinkage of a surgical specimen. In addition, a formula was presented that extrapolates the actual surgical margins (in vivo) from the (contracted) fixed-tissue pathology report measurement and the reported in vivo lesion diameter. OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study are to verify that shrinkage of surgical specimens is approximately 20% and that the margin formula can be successfully applied to a different group of patients. METHODS: Four hundred seven patients with malignant melanoma were prospectively enrolled to measure preexcision (outlined with ink) surgical margins, fixed-tissue (contracted) surgical margins, and overall specimen shrinkage. RESULTS: It is verified that overall shrinkage of cutaneous surgical specimens is approximately 20%. Surgical specimens from patients younger than 50 years of age have approximately 25% shrinkage. Those specimens from patients 50 to 59 years of age have approximately 20% shrinkage and those from patients 60 years of age or older have about 15% shrinkage. The surgical margins predicted by the margin formula were within +/- 3.5 mm of the actual measured surgical margin 86.5% of the time. CONCLUSION: The actual surgical margins (in vivo) of a malignant melanoma can be reasonably estimated from the fixed-tissue pathology measurement via the margin formula. The shrinkage of a surgical specimen is 15% to 25% depending on the patient's age.

Recurrence rates of treated basal cell carcinomas. Part 4: X-ray therapy.

This is the fourth report in a series that reviews the experience in the Skin and Cancer Unit, from 1955 through 1982, with the treatment of basal cell carcinomas (BCCs). It concerns 862 primary (previously untreated) BCCs irradiated by a "standardized" x-ray therapy schedule. The overall 5-year recurrence rate for these lesions, as determined by the modified life-table method, was 7.4%. This rate was not significantly different from that experienced with 211 recurrent (previously treated) BCCs with a re-recurrence rate of 9.5% (P = .552). For the primary BCCs, multivariate analysis showed that increasing BCC diameter was the only independent risk factor for high recurrence rates (P = .003). The patient's age or sex, the duration of the BCC, the anatomic site of the BCC, or time-span treated (1955-1963, 1964-1972, 1973-1982) did not significantly affect the recurrence rate. Additional analysis showed that BCCs on the head less than 10 mm in diameter had a 5-year recurrence rate of 4.4% whereas those 10 mm or greater in diameter had a rate of 9.5%. Lastly, the proportion of recurrence-free treatment sites with a good or excellent long-term cosmetic outcome after x-ray therapy (63%) was lower than previous reports in this series with curettage-electrodesiccation (91%) and surgical excision (84%). Thus, if the long-term cosmetic outcome after treatment is not an overriding concern to the patient, x-ray therapy is an effective modality for many primary and recurrent BCCs.

Recurrence rates of treated basal cell carcinomas. Part 3: Surgical excision.

This is the third report in a series that reviews the experience in the Skin and Cancer Unit, from 1955 through 1982, with the treatment of basal cell carcinomas (BCCs). It concerns 588 previously untreated (primary) BCCs removed by surgical excision. The cumulative 5-year recurrence rate was 4.8%. This is a statistically significant lower recurrence rate (P = .034) than 135 previously treated BCCs that had a re-recurrence rate of 11.6%. For the primary BCCs, multivariate analysis showed that location on the head (P = .010) and being male (P = .004) were independent risk factors for recurrence. The patient's age, the duration of the BCC, its maximum diameter, or the time span (1955-1963, 1964-1972, 1973-1982) in which it was treated did not significantly affect the recurrence rate. The 5-year recurrence rate for BCCs excised from various anatomic sites were as follows: 1) neck, trunk, and extremities = 0.7%; 2) head--less than 6 mm in diameter = 3.2%; 3) head--6 to 9 mm in diameter = 8.0% (treated since 1964 = 5.2%); and 4) head--10 mm or more in diameter = 9.0%. Surgical excision is a highly effective method for removal of BCCs, and achieved a good to excellent cosmetic outcome in about 85% of the recurrence-free treatment sites.

Influence of gender on survival in patients with stage I malignant melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Women with stage I malignant melanoma (MM) have a survival advantage over men as judged by univariate analysis. However, on multivariate analysis, gender was found to be an independent predictor of survival in only 8 of 14 published studies. OBJECTIVE: This study attempts to explain the disparate findings for gender as a prognostic factor in different multivariate analyses. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 832 patients with stage I MM in the New York University Melanoma Cooperative Group (NYU-MCG) data base. The results were compared with those of 14 similar studies. RESULTS: In the NYU-MCG data base, gender, age of the patient, and number of mitoses per square millimeter were not independent factors on multivariate analysis, whereas thickness, anatomic site, and presence of ulceration were. The statistically significant difference in survival by gender on univariate analysis, in the NYU-MCG data base, could be explained by the differences in thickness and anatomic site of the MMs in the sexes. Comparison of these results with the reviewed reports from the literature consistently shows thickness and ulceration to be independent prognosticators of survival. Likewise, most authors agree that age is not an independent predictor. However, there is no consensus with respect to gender and site, each of which was found to be an independent predictor of survival in only about half the studies reviewed. CONCLUSION: The disparate findings for gender in different multivariate analyses are explained by a gender-related difference in anatomic distribution of MM. Gender and site appear to have a similar influence in multivariate analysis and thus either one or the other is a dominant factor in different multivariate analyses.

Level of education and the risk of malignant melanoma.

BACKGROUND: The risk for the development of malignant melanoma has been reported to be higher in persons with more formal education than in individuals with less. OBJECTIVE: To study whether those with more formal education are indeed at more risk for malignant melanoma than those with less formal education. METHODS: This case-control study explores the relation between education and melanoma risk by analyzing data collected by the American Cancer Society. A total of 1.2 million people were surveyed for a history of cancer and followed up for 6 years for the development of any cancer. In total, 2780 white persons had a history of malignant melanoma or developed malignant melanoma during the study period. The controls were age-, sex-, and geographically matched white persons selected from the remaining people enrolled. RESULTS: Both men and women were shown to have a statistically significant increase in the relative risk for malignant melanoma with increasing education level (p less than 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively). This relation was more striking in men when the relative risk with 95% confidence interval was calculated by sex for each education level. CONCLUSION: Americans with more formal education are at greater risk for malignant melanoma than those with less education.

Determination of preexcision surgical margins of melanomas from fixed-tissue specimens.

The shrinkage of cutaneous surgical specimens of 199 malignant melanomas was analyzed. A formula was derived that makes it possible to calculate the in vivo (preexcision) specimen diameter from the in vitro (fixed-tissue) specimen diameter. The age of the patient was found to significantly influence specimen shrinkage and was incorporated into this shrinkage formula. The calculated in vivo specimen diameter was then used to determine the width of the in vivo surgical margins with reasonable accuracy. Thus this method permits calculation of the width of surgical margins from fixed-tissue specimens.

Factors influencing survival in melanoma.

Multiple factors appear to influence survival of patients with MM. As computer and mathematic analysis techniques advance, the specific effects of these variables, in terms of their impact on survival rates, will be delineated better.

Clinical features of dysplastic nevi.

The clinical features of 100 dysplastic nevi were tabulated. Although certain characteristics were present in most or all of these melanocytic nevi, there was a marked heterogeneity of other clinical features. The preponderant type of large (greater than or equal to 8 mm) melanocytic nevus in patients with classic dysplastic nevi is a papule or plaque with the following characteristics: multicoloration (various shades of tans, browns, reds, or black); slightly raised height for its broad diameter; mamillated surface; and lack of hypertrichosis. An atlas illustrates some of the clinical varieties of melanocytic nevi in this syndrome.

Recurrence rates of treated basal cell carcinomas. Part 2: Curettage-electrodesiccation.

This is the second article in a series that reviews the experience in the Skin and Cancer Unit, from 1955 through 1982, with the treatment of basal cell carcinomas (BCCs). This report deals with 2314 previously untreated (primary) BCCs removed by curettage-electrodesiccation. Multivariate analysis showed that increasing lesion diameter (P less than .001), high-risk anatomic sites (nose, paranasal, nasal-labial groove, ear, chin, mandibular, peri-oral, and peri-ocular areas) (P less than .001), middle-risk anatomical sites (scalp, forehead, pre- and post-auricular, and malar areas) (P less than .001), and time-span treated (1955 to 1963) (P = .012) were independent risk factors for high recurrence rates. The patient's age, sex, and lesion duration before treatment did not affect the recurrence rates. In order to best illustrate our current experience with BCCs, the last time-span (1973 to 1982) was examined in detail. For the low-risk sites (neck, trunk, and four extremities), BCCs of all diameters responded well to curettage-electrodesiccation with an overall 5-year recurrence rate of 3.3% (SE = 1.5%) determined by the modified life-table method. In the middle-risk sites BCCs less than 10 mm in diameter had a recurrence rate of 5.3% (SE = 2.7%). Finally, in the high-risk sites, lesions less than 6 mm in diameter had a recurrence rate of 4.5% (SE = 2.6%). Thus, BCCs less than 6 mm in diameter, regardless of anatomic site, as well as selected larger BCCs depending on their anatomic site, are effectively treated by currettage-electrodesiccation.

Recurrence rates of treated basal cell carcinomas. Part 1: Overview.

This is the first article in a series reviewing the extensive experience of the Oncology Section of the Skin and Cancer Unit, from 1955 through 1982, with 5755 basal cell carcinomas (BCCs) treated by curettage-electrodesiccation, surgical excision, or x-ray therapy. Recurrence rates were calculated by three methods for each of the treatment modalities: 1) by the raw recurrence rate method; 2) by the "strict" 5-year recurrence rate method; and 3) by modification of the life-table method. Our analyses show that the last method best approximates the true recurrence rate. Primary (previously untreated) BCCs had a 5-year recurrence rate of 10.6% (standard error 0.6%), and previously treated BCCs had a rate of 15.4% (standard error 1.3%) (P = .0002). The greatest risk for recurrence of treated primary BCCs occurred 1 to 4 years after therapy. It is concluded that recurrence rates of primary BCCs should be reported separately from those of previously treated BCCs and that the modified life-table method is best suited to calculate 5-year recurrence rates.

Malignant melanoma in the 1990s: the continued importance of early detection and the role of physician examination and self-examination of the skin.

Despite the exciting new techniques being developed to help diagnose early malignant melanoma, the current standard of care remains periodic examination of the skin. The combination of routine physician examination coupled with self-examination of the skin provides an opportunity for the identification of early malignant melanoma. Removal of such thin lesions can significantly reduce the ever-increasing mortality rate from this potentially serious form of cutaneous cancer.

Late recurrence of malignant melanoma: a report of five cases, a review of the literature and a study of associated factors.

This is a study of factors associated with late recurrence (i.e. 10 or more years after definitive surgery) of cutaneous malignant melanoma (MM). Four factors were evaluated: Breslow thickness, site of the primary MM, age of the patient at initial treatment for MM, and gender. These factors were compared between two groups: (1) Stage I cases in the New York University Melanoma Cooperative Group (NYU-MCG) database that had 'early recurrence' (less than 10 years) of MM, and (2) cases in the literature with late recurrence of MM plus five new cases reported here. Compared to the group of patients with 'early recurrence' of MM, the group of patients who had late recurrence of MM were found more likely to have thinner primary melanomas (p less than 0.001), to be younger (p less than 0.001), to be female (p = 0.001), and, for females, to have the MM located on an extremity (p = 0.017). Because late recurrence does occur and because the risk of developing a new primary MM is increased in MM patients, any patient who has had a MM should be followed for life.