Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls.

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993-2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades.

Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator.

Changes in the distribution and abundance of invasive species can have far-reaching ecological consequences. Programs to control invaders are common but gauging the effectiveness of such programs using carefully controlled, large-scale field experiments is rare, especially at higher trophic levels. Experimental manipulations coupled with long-term demographic monitoring can reveal the mechanistic underpinnings of interspecific competition among apex predators and suggest mitigation options for invasive species. We used a large-scale before-after control-impact removal experiment to investigate the effects of an invasive competitor, the barred owl (Strix varia), on the population dynamics of an iconic old-forest native species, the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). Removal of barred owls had a strong, positive effect on survival of sympatric spotted owls and a weaker but positive effect on spotted owl dispersal and recruitment. After removals, the estimated mean annual rate of population change for spotted owls stabilized in areas with removals (0.2% decline per year), but continued to decline sharply in areas without removals (12.1% decline per year). The results demonstrated that the most substantial changes in population dynamics of northern spotted owls over the past two decades were associated with the invasion, population expansion, and subsequent removal of barred owls. Our study provides experimental evidence of the demographic consequences of competitive release, where a threatened avian predator was freed from restrictions imposed on its population dynamics with the removal of a competitively dominant invasive species.

Odds ratios and hurdle models: a long-term analysis of parasite infection patterns in endangered young-of-the-year suckers from Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, USA.

We used odds ratios and a hurdle model to analyze parasite co-infections over 25 years on >20,000 young-of-the year of endangered Shortnose and Lost River Suckers. Host ecologies differed as did parasite infections. Shortnose Suckers were more likely to be caught inshore and 3-5 times more likely to have Bolbophorus spp. and Contracaecum sp. infections, and Lost River Suckers were more likely to be caught offshore and approximately three times more likely to have Lernaea cyprinacea infections. An observed peak shift seems likely to be due to a lower host size limit for Bolbophorus spp. (13.6 mm) compared with L. cyprinacea (23.4 mm). The large data set allowed us to generate strong hypotheses: (i) that a major marsh restoration project had unintended consequences that resulted in an increase in infections; (ii) that co-infection with Bolbophorus spp. increased the odds of infection by L. cyprinacea and Contracaecum sp.; (iii) that significant declines in the odds of infection over approximately 25 days were due to parasite-induced host mortality; (iv) that the fish's small size relative to L. cyprinacea and Contracaecum sp. might be directly lethal; (v) that the absence of L. cyprinacea infections in the early 1990s was associated with good year-class production of the suckers; and (vi) that parasites might increase the odds of vagrancy from the nursery ground.