Prevalence and predictive risk factors of hypertension in patients hospitalized in Kamenge Military hospital and Kamenge University teaching hospital in 2019: A fixed effect modelling study in Burundi.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertension is a major threat to public health globally. Especially in sub-Saharan African countries, this coexists with high burden of other infectious diseases, creating a complex public health situation which is difficult to address. Tackling this will require targeted public health intervention based on evidence that well defines the at risk population. In this study, using retrospective data from two referral hospitals in Burundi, we model the risk factors of hypertension in Burundi. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective data of a sample of 353 randomly selected from a population of 4,380 patients admitted in 2019 in two referral hospitals in Burundi: Military and University teaching hospital of Kamenge. The predictive risk factors were carried out by fixed effect logistic regression. Model performance was assessed with Area under Curve (AUC) method. Model was internally validated using bootstrapping method with 2000 replications. Both data processing and data analysis were done using R software. RESULTS: Overall, 16.7% of the patients were found to be hypertensive. This study didn't showed any significant difference of hypertension's prevalences among women (16%) and men (17.7%). After adjustment of the model for cofounding covariates, associated risk factors found were advanced age (40-59 years) and above 60 years, high education level, chronic kidney failure, high body mass index, familial history of hypertension. In absence of these highlighted risk factors, the risk of hypertension occurrence was about 2 per 1000 persons. This probability is more than 90% in patients with more than three risk factors. CONCLUSION: The relatively high prevalence and associated risk factors of hypertension in Burundi raises a call for concern especially in this context where there exist an equally high burden of infectious diseases, other chronic diseases including chronic malnutrition. Targeting interventions based on these identified risk factors will allow judicious channel of resources and effective public health planning.

Key factors influencing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in patients under anti-tuberculosis treatment in two centres in Burundi: a mixed effect modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the World Health Organization efforts to expand access to the tuberculosis treatment, multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains a major threat. MDR-TB represents a challenge for clinicians and staff operating in national tuberculosis (TB) programmes/centres. In sub-Saharan African countries including Burundi, MDR-TB coexists with high burden of other communicable and non-communicable diseases, creating a complex public health situation which is difficult to address. Tackling this will require targeted public health intervention based on evidence which well defines the at-risk population. In this study, using data from two referral anti-tuberculosis in Burundi, we model the key factors associated with MDR-TB in Burundi. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted from 1stAugust 2019 to 15th January 2020 in Kibumbu Sanatorium and Bujumbura anti-tuberculosis centres for cases and controls respectively. In all, 180 TB patients were selected, comprising of 60 cases and 120 controls using incidence density selection method. The associated factors were carried out by mixed effect logistic regression. Model performance was assessed by the Area under Curve (AUC). Model was internally validated via bootstrapping with 2000 replications. All analysis were done using R Statistical 3.5.0. RESULTS: MDR-TB was more identified among patients who lived in rural areas (51.3%), in patients' residence (69.2%) and among those with a household size of six or more family members (59.5%). Most of the MDR-TB cases had already been under TB treatment (86.4%), had previous contact with an MDR-TR case (85.0%), consumed tobacco (55.5%) and were diabetic (66.6 %). HIV prevalence was 32.3 % in controls and 67.7 % among cases. After modelling using mixed effects, Residence of patients (aOR= 1.31, 95%C: 1.12-1.80), living in houses with more than 6 family members (aOR= 4.15, 95% C: 3.06-5.39), previous close contact with MDR-TB (aOR= 6.03, 95% C: 4.01-8.12), history of TB treatment (aOR= 2.16, 95% C: 1.06-3.42), tobacco consumption (aOR = 3.17 ,95% C: 2.06-5.45) and underlying diabetes' ( aOR= 4.09,95% CI = 2.01-16.79) were significantly associated with MDR-TB. With 2000 stratified bootstrap replicates, the model had an excellent predictive performance, accurately predicting 88.15% (95% C: 82.06%-92.8%) of all observations. The coexistence of risk factors to the same patients increases the risk of MDR-TB occurrence. TB patients with no any risk factors had 17.6% of risk to become MDR-TB. That probability was respectively three times and five times higher among diabetic and close contact MDR-TB patients. CONCLUSION: The relatively high TB's prevalence and MDR-TB occurrence in Burundi raises a cause for concern especially in this context where there exist an equally high burden of chronic diseases including malnutrition. Targeting interventions based on these identified risk factors will allow judicious channel of resources and effective public health planning.