The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Canada: a time-series study, 2020-2023.

BACKGROUND: During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of reported cases of COVID-19 among Canadians was under 6%. Although high vaccine coverage was achieved in Canada by fall 2021, the Omicron variant caused unprecedented numbers of infections, overwhelming testing capacity and making it difficult to quantify the trajectory of population immunity. METHODS: Using a time-series approach and data from more than 900 000 samples collected by 7 research studies collaborating with the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force (CITF), we estimated trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence owing to infection and vaccination for the Canadian population over 3 intervals: prevaccination (March to November 2020), vaccine roll-out (December 2020 to November 2021), and the arrival of the Omicron variant (December 2021 to March 2023). We also estimated seroprevalence by geographical region and age. RESULTS: By November 2021, 9.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 7.3%-11%) of people in Canada had humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from an infection. Seroprevalence increased rapidly after the arrival of the Omicron variant - by Mar. 15, 2023, 76% (95% CrI 74%-79%) of the population had detectable antibodies from infections. The rapid rise in infection-induced antibodies occurred across Canada and was most pronounced in younger age groups and in the Western provinces: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. INTERPRETATION: Data up to March 2023 indicate that most people in Canada had acquired antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 through natural infection and vaccination. However, given variations in population seropositivity by age and geography, the potential for waning antibody levels, and new variants that may escape immunity, public health policy and clinical decisions should be tailored to local patterns of population immunity.

Provincial variation in colorectal cancer screening adherence in Canada; evidence from the Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow's Health.

Introduction: Although colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program is proven to reduce CRC incidence and mortality, understanding patterns and predictors of suboptimal adherence in screening program requires further investigation in Canada. Methods: We used self-reported data from five regional cohorts of the Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow's Health (CanPath), namely the BC Generations Project (BCGP), Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), the Ontario Health Study (OHS), Quebec's CARTaGENE, and the Atlantic Partnership for Tomorrow's Health Study (Atlantic PATH). We stratified participants into the following four risk categories: 1) age 50-74 years, 2) family history in a first-degree relative, 3) personal history of chronic inflammatory bowel disease and/or polyps, and 4) co-existence of personal risk and family history. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of adherence to the screening guidelines. Results: Adherence to CRC screening varied considerably between regions, ranging from 16.6% in CARTaGENE to 47.7% in OHS. Compared to the largest cohort OHS, the likelihood of non-adherence to CRC screening was significantly higher in BCGP (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.11-1.19), the Atlantic PATH (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.82-1.99) and CARTaGENE (OR 5.10, 95% CI 4.85-5.36). Low physical activity, current smoking, presence of personal risk, family history of CRC significantly reduced the likelihood of adherence to screening recommendations. Discussion/conclusion: Compared to the national target of ≥ 60% for participation in CRC screening, adherence to regular CRC screening was suboptimal in this cohort of Canadians and varied by region. Further efforts are needed to identify the specific barriers to screening adherence in different provinces and across risk categories.

The politics of universal health coverage.

The UN has declared universal health coverage an urgent global goal. Efforts to achieve this goal have been supported by rigorous research on the scientific, technical, and administrative aspects of health systems design. Yet a substantial portion of the world's population does not have access to essential health services. There is growing recognition that achieving universal health coverage is a political challenge. However, fundamental concepts from the political science discipline are often overlooked in the health literature. This Series paper draws on political science research to highlight the ways in which politics can facilitate, or stymie, policy reform. Specifically, we present a framework of analysis that explores how interests, ideas, and institutions shape universal health coverage. We then examine key considerations relating to the implementation of relevant policies. This Series paper shows that a political understanding of universal health coverage is needed to achieve health for all.

Interacting evolutionary pressures drive mutation dynamics and health outcomes in aging blood.

Age-related clonal hematopoiesis (ARCH) is characterized by age-associated accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) or their pluripotent descendants. HSCs harboring driver mutations will be positively selected and cells carrying these mutations will rise in frequency. While ARCH is a known risk factor for blood malignancies, such as Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML), why some people who harbor ARCH driver mutations do not progress to AML remains unclear. Here, we model the interaction of positive and negative selection in deeply sequenced blood samples from individuals who subsequently progressed to AML, compared to healthy controls, using deep learning and population genetics. Our modeling allows us to discriminate amongst evolutionary classes with high accuracy and captures signatures of purifying selection in most individuals. Purifying selection, acting on benign or mildly damaging passenger mutations, appears to play a critical role in preventing disease-predisposing clones from rising to dominance and is associated with longer disease-free survival. Through exploring a range of evolutionary models, we show how different classes of selection shape clonal dynamics and health outcomes thus enabling us to better identify individuals at a high risk of malignancy.

Gene-by-environment interactions in urban populations modulate risk phenotypes.

Uncovering the interaction between genomes and the environment is a principal challenge of modern genomics and preventive medicine. While theoretical models are well defined, little is known of the G × E interactions in humans. We used an integrative approach to comprehensively assess the interactions between 1.6 million data points, encompassing a range of environmental exposures, health, and gene expression levels, coupled with whole-genome genetic variation. From ∼1000 individuals of a founder population in Quebec, we reveal a substantial impact of the environment on the transcriptome and clinical endophenotypes, overpowering that of genetic ancestry. Air pollution impacts gene expression and pathways affecting cardio-metabolic and respiratory traits, when controlling for genetic ancestry. Finally, we capture four expression quantitative trait loci that interact with the environment (air pollution). Our findings demonstrate how the local environment directly affects disease risk phenotypes and that genetic variation, including less common variants, can modulate individual's response to environmental challenges.