Examining County-Level Associations between Federally Qualified Health Centers and Sexually Transmitted Infections: A Political Ecology of Health Framework.

Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) are the largest providers of healthcare for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in medically underserved communities in the United States (US). Through the Affordable Care Act (ACA), FQHCs have grown in number, but the impact of this growth on STIs is poorly understood. This ecological study seeks to quantify the association between FQHCs and STI prevalence in all US counties. Variables were described utilizing medians and interquartile ranges, and distributions were compared using Kruskal-Wallis tests. Median rates of chlamydia in counties with high, low, and no FQHCs were 370.3, 422.6, and 242.1 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. Gonorrhea rates were 101.9, 119.7, and 49.9 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. Multivariable linear regression models, adjusted for structural and place-based characteristics (i.e., Medicaid expansion, social vulnerability, metropolitan status, and region), were used to examine county-level associations between FQHCs and STIs. Compared to counties with no FQHCs, counties with a high number of FQHCs had chlamydia rates that were an average of 68.6 per 100,000 population higher (ß = 68.6, 95% CI: 45.0, 92.3) and gonorrhea rates that were an average of 25.2 per 100,000 population higher (ß = 25.2, 95% CI: 13.2, 37.2). When controlled for salient factors associated with STI risks, greater FQHC availability was associated with greater diagnosis and treatment of STIs. These findings provide empirical support for the utility of a political ecology of health framework and the critical role of FQHCs in confronting the STI epidemic in the US.

Documenting the development, adoption and pre-ebola implementation of Liberia's integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) strategy.

BACKGROUND: In the immediate aftermath of a 14-year civil conflict that disrupted the health system, Liberia adopted the internationally recommended integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) strategy in 2004. Despite this, Liberia was among the three West African countries ravaged by the worst Ebola epidemic in history from 2014 to 2016. This paper describes successes, failures, strengths, and weaknesses in the development, adoption, and implementation of IDSR following the civil war and up until the outbreak of Ebola, from 2004 to early 2014. METHODS: We reviewed 112 official Government documents and peer-reviewed articles and conducted 29 in-depth interviews with key informants from December 2021 to March 2022 to gain perspectives on IDSR in the post-conflict and pre-Ebola era in Liberia. We assessed the core and supportive functions of IDSR, such as notification of priority diseases, confirmation, reporting, analysis, investigation, response, feedback, monitoring, staff training, supervision, communication, and financial resources. Data were triangulated and presented via emerging themes and in-depth accounts to describe the context of IDSR introduction and implementation, and the barriers surrounding it. RESULTS: Despite the adoption of the IDSR framework, Liberia failed to secure the resources-human, logistical, and financial-to support effective implementation over the 10-year period. Documents and interview reports demonstrate numerous challenges prior to Ebola: the surveillance system lacked key components of IDSR including laboratory testing capacity, disease reporting, risk communication, community engagement, and staff supervision systems. Insufficient financial support and an abundance of vertical programs further impeded progress. In-depth accounts by donors and key governmental informants demonstrate that although the system had a role in detecting Ebola in Liberia, it could not respond effectively to control the disease. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that post-war, Liberia's health system intended to prioritize epidemic preparedness and response with the adoption of IDSR. However, insufficient investment and systems development meant IDSR was not well implemented, leaving the country vulnerable to the devastating impact of the Ebola epidemic.

Barriers to conducting independent quantitative research in low-income countries: A cross-sectional study of public health graduate students in Liberia.

INTRODUCTION: During recent disease outbreaks, quantitative research has been used to investigate intervention scenarios while accounting for local epidemiological, social, and clinical context. Despite the value of such work, few documented research efforts have been observed to originate from low-income countries. This study aimed to assess barriers that may be limiting the awareness and conduct of quantitative research among Liberian public health graduate students. METHODS: A semi-structured questionnaire was administered September-November 2021 to Master's in Public Health (MPH) students in Liberia. Potential barriers around technology access, understanding of quantitative science, and availability of mentorship were interrogated. Associations between barriers and self-reported likelihood of conducting quantitative research within six months of the investigation period were evaluated using ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 120 participating MPH students, 86% reported owning a personal computer, but 18.4% and 39.4% had machines with malfunctioning hardware and/or with battery power lasting ≤2 hours, respectively. On average, students reported having poor internet network 3.4 days weekly. 47% reported never using any computer software for analysis, and 46% reported no specific knowledge on statistical analysis. Students indicated spending a median 30 minutes per week reading scientific articles. Moreover, 50% had no access to quantitative research mentors. Despite barriers, 59% indicated they were very likely to undertake quantitative research in the next 6 months; only 7% indicated they were not at all likely. Computer ownership was found to be statistically significantly associated with higher likelihood of conducting quantitative research in the multivariable analysis (aOR: 4.90,95% CI: 1.54-16.3). CONCLUSION: The high likelihood of conducting quantitative research among MPH students contrasts with limitations around computing capacity, awareness of research tools/methods, and access to mentorship. To promote rigorous analytical research in Liberia, there is a need for systematic measures to enhance capacity for diverse quantitative methods through efforts sensitive to the local research environment.

Potential Impacts of Mass Nutritional Supplementation on Measles Dynamics: A Simulation Study.

The bidirectional interaction between undernutrition and infection can be devastating to child health. Nutritional deficiencies impair immunity and increase susceptibility to infection. Simultaneously, infections compound undernutrition by increasing metabolic demand and impairing nutrient absorption. Treatment of acute malnutrition (wasting) can reverse some of its deleterious effects and reduce susceptibility to infectious diseases. Nutrition-specific approaches may be packaged with other interventions, including immunization, to support overall child health. To understand how mass nutritional supplementation, treatment of wasting, and vaccination affect the dynamics of a vaccine-preventable infection, we developed a population-level, compartmental model of measles transmission stratified by age and nutrition status. We simulated a range of scenarios to assess the potential reductions in measles infection and mortality associated with targeted therapeutic feeding for children who are wasted and with a mass supplementation intervention. Nutrition interventions were assumed to increase engagement with the health sector, leading to increased vaccination rates. We found that the combination of wasting treatment and mass supplementation coverage followed by an increase in vaccination coverage of non-wasted children from a baseline of 75% to 85%, leads to 34% to 57% and 65% to 77% reduction in measles infection and mortality and 56% to 60% reduction in overall mortality among wasted children, compared with the wasting treatment alone. Our work highlights the synergistic benefits that may be achieved by leveraging mass nutritional supplementation as a touch point with the health system to increase rates of vaccination and improve child survival beyond what would be expected from the additive benefits of each intervention.

Contextualizing mobility during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia.

Based on findings from focus groups and key informant interviews conducted at five sites in Liberia between 2018 and 2019, we explore some of the key factors that influenced people's motivation to travel during the 2014-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). We discuss how these factors led to certain mobility patterns and the implications these had for EVD response. The reasons for individual mobility during the epidemic were multiple and diverse. Some movements were related to relocation efforts as people attempted to extricate themselves from stigmatizing situations. Others were motivated by fear, convinced that other communities would be safer, particularly if extended family members resided there. Individuals also felt compelled to travel during the epidemic to meet other needs and obligations, such as attending burial rites. Some expressed concerns about obtaining food and earning a livelihood. Notably, these latter concerns served as an impetus to travel surreptitiously to evade quarantine directives aimed specifically at restricting mobility. Improvements in future infectious disease response could be made by incorporating contextually-based mobility factors, for example: the personalization of public health messaging through the recruitment of family members and trusted local leaders, to convey information that would help allay fear and combat stigmatization; activating existing traditional community surveillance systems in which entry into the community must first be approved by the community chief; and increased involvement of local leaders and community members in the provision of food and care to those quarantined so that the need to travel for these reasons is removed.

Liberia adherence and loss-to-follow-up in HIV and AIDS care and treatment: A retrospective cohort of adolescents and adults from 2016-2019.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a lifesaving intervention for people living with HIV infection, reducing morbidity and mortality; it is likewise essential to reducing transmission. The "Treat all" strategy recommended by the World Health Organization has dramatically increased ART eligibility and improved access. However, retaining patients on ART has been a major challenge for many national programs in low- and middle-income settings, despite actionable local policies and ambitious targets. To estimate retention of patients along the HIV care cascade in Liberia, and identify factors associated with loss-to-follow-up (LTFU), death, and suboptimal treatment adherence, we conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study utilizing facility and patient-level records. Patients aged ≥15 years, from 28 facilities who were first registered in HIV care from January 2016 -December 2017 were included. We used Cox proportional hazard models to explore associations between demographic and clinical factors and the outcomes of LTFU and death, and a multinomial logistic regression model to investigate factors associated with suboptimal treatment adherence. Among the 4185 records assessed, 27.4% (n = 1145) were males and the median age of the cohort was 37 (IQR: 30-45) years. At 24 months of follow-up, 41.8% (n = 1751) of patients were LTFU, 6.6% (n = 278) died, 0.5% (n = 21) stopped treatment, 3% (n = 127) transferred to another facility and 47.9% (n = 2008) were retained in care and treatment. The incidence of LTFU was 46.0 (95% CI: 40.8-51.6) per 100 person-years. Relative to patients at WHO clinical stage I at first treatment visit, patients at WHO clinical stage III [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.59, 95%CI: 1.21-2.09; p <0.001] or IV (aHR 2.41, 95%CI: 1.51-3.84; p <0.001) had increased risk of LTFU; whereas at registration, age category 35-44 (aHR 0.65, 95%CI: 0.44-0.98, p = 0.038) and 45 years and older (aHR 0.60, 95%CI: 0.39-0.93, p = 0.021) had a decreased risk. For death, patients assessed with WHO clinical stage II (aHR 2.35, 95%CI: 1.53-3.61, p<0.001), III (aHR 2.55, 95%CI: 1.75-3.71, p<0.001), and IV (aHR 4.21, 95%CI: 2.57-6.89, p<0.001) had an increased risk, while non-pregnant females (aHR 0.68, 95%CI: 0.51-0.92, p = 0.011) and pregnant females (aHR 0.42, 95%CI: 0.20-0.90, p = 0.026) had a decreased risk when compared to males. Suboptimal adherence was strongly associated with the experience of drug side effects-average adherence [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.45, 95% CI: 1.06-1.99, p = 0.02) and poor adherence (aOR 1.75, 95%CI: 1.11-2.76, p = 0.016), and attending rural facility decreased the odds of average adherence (aOR 0.01, 95%CI: 0.01-0.03, p<0.001) and poor adherence (aOR 0.001, 95%CI: 0.0004-0.003, p<0.001). Loss-to-follow-up and poor adherence remain major challenges to achieving viral suppression targets in Liberia. Over two-fifths of patients engaged with the national HIV program are being lost to follow-up within 2 years of beginning care and treatment. WHO clinical stage III and IV were associated with LTFU while WHO clinical stage II, III and IV were associated with death. Suboptimal adherence was further associated with experience of drug side effects. Active support and close monitoring of patients who have signs of clinical progression and/or drug side effects could improve patient outcomes.

Coordinated support for local action: Modeling strategies to facilitate behavior adoption in urban-poor communities of Liberia for sustained COVID-19 suppression.

BACKGROUND: Long-term suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission will involve strategies that recognize the heterogeneous capacity of communities to undertake public health recommendations. We highlight the epidemiological impact of barriers to adoption and the potential role of community-led coordination of support for cases and high-risk contacts in urban slums. METHODS: A compartmental model representing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in urban poor versus less socioeconomically vulnerable subpopulations was developed for Montserrado County, Liberia. Adoption of home-isolation behavior was assumed to be related to the proportion of each subpopulation residing in housing units with multiple rooms and with access to sanitation, water, and food. We evaluated the potential impact of increasing the maximum attainable proportion of adoption among urban poor following the scheduled lifting of the state of emergency. RESULTS: Without intervention, the model estimated higher overall infection burden but fewer severe cases among urban poor versus the less socioeconomically vulnerable population. With self-isolation by mildly symptomatic individuals, median reductions in cumulative infections, severe cases, and maximum daily incidence were 7.6% (IQR: 2.2%-20.9%), 7.0% (2.0%-18.5%), and 9.9% (2.5%-31.4%), respectively, in the urban poor subpopulation and 16.8% (5.5%-29.3%), 15.0% (5.0%-26.4%), and 28.1% (9.3%-47.8%) in the less socioeconomically vulnerable population. An increase in the maximum attainable percentage of behavior adoption by the urban slum subpopulation was associated with median reductions of 19.2% (10.1%-34.0%), 21.1% (13.3%-34.2%), and 26.0% (11.5%-48.9%) relative to the status quo scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Post-lockdown recommendations that prioritize home-isolation by confirmed cases are limited by resource constraints. Investing in community-based initiatives that coordinate support for self-identified cases and their contacts could more effectively suppress COVID-19 in settings with socioeconomic vulnerabilities.

Interruption of tuberculosis detection and care during the Ebola virus disease epidemic (2014-2015) in Liberia: time-series analyses for 2013-2017.

OBJECTIVE: Interrupted time-series analyses, using 5 years of routinely collected health information system data, were conducted to estimate the magnitude of impact of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic and determine trends in tuberculosis (TB) care services in Liberia. METHODS: A segmented linear regression model was used to generate estimates and predictions for trends for three TB service indicators before, during, and after EVD, from January 2013 to December 2017. RESULTS: It was found that the number of presumptive TB cases declined significantly at the start of the EVD outbreak, with an estimated loss of 3222 cases (95% confidence interval (CI) -5691 to -752; P = 0.014). There was also an estimated loss of 709 cases per quarter post-EVD (95% CI -1346 to -71; P = 0.032). However, over the post-EVD period, quarterly increases were observed in the proportion of smear-positive to presumptive cases (1.45%, 95% CI 0.38% to 2.5%; P = 0.011) and the proportion of treatment success to TB cases evaluated (3.3%, 95% CI 0.82% to 5.79%; P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the EVD outbreak (2014-2015) negatively affected TB care services. Rigorous quantitative analyses can be used to assess the magnitude of interruption and advocate for preparedness in settings with limited healthcare capacity.

A review and agenda for integrated disease models including social and behavioural factors.

Social and behavioural factors are critical to the emergence, spread and containment of human disease, and are key determinants of the course, duration and outcomes of disease outbreaks. Recent epidemics of Ebola in West Africa and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) globally have reinforced the importance of developing infectious disease models that better integrate social and behavioural dynamics and theories. Meanwhile, the growth in capacity, coordination and prioritization of social science research and of risk communication and community engagement (RCCE) practice within the current pandemic response provides an opportunity for collaboration among epidemiological modellers, social scientists and RCCE practitioners towards a mutually beneficial research and practice agenda. Here, we provide a review of the current modelling methodologies and describe the challenges and opportunities for integrating them with social science research and RCCE practice. Finally, we set out an agenda for advancing transdisciplinary collaboration for integrated disease modelling and for more robust policy and practice for reducing disease transmission.

Data-driven analyses of behavioral strategies to eliminate cysticercosis in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The multi-host taeniosis/cysticercosis disease system is associated with significant neurological morbidity, as well as economic burden, globally. We investigated whether lower cost behavioral interventions are sufficient for local elimination of human cysticercosis in Boulkiemdé, Sanguié, and Nayala provinces of Burkina Faso. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Province-specific data on human behaviors (i.e., latrine use and pork consumption) and serological prevalence of human and pig disease were used to inform a deterministic, compartmental model of the taeniosis/cysticercosis disease system. Parameters estimated via Bayesian melding provided posterior distributions for comparing transmission rates associated with human ingestion of Taenia solium cysticerci due to undercooking and human exposure to T. solium eggs in the environment. Reductions in transmission via these pathways were modeled to determine required effectiveness of a market-focused cooking behavior intervention and a community-led sanitation and hygiene program, independently and in combination, for eliminating human cysticercosis as a public health problem (<1 case per 1000 population). Transmission of cysticerci due to consumption of undercooked pork was found to vary significantly across transmission settings. In Sanguié, the rate of transmission due to undercooking was 6% higher than that in Boulkiemdé (95% CI: 1.03, 1.09; p-value < 0.001) and 35% lower than that in Nayala (95% CI: 0.64, 0.66; p-value < 0.001). We found that 67% and 62% reductions in undercooking of pork consumed in markets were associated with elimination of cysticercosis in Nayala and Sanguié, respectively. Elimination of active cysticercosis in Boulkiemdé required a 73% reduction. Less aggressive reductions of 25% to 30% in human exposure to Taenia solium eggs through sanitation and hygiene programs were associated with elimination in the provinces. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite heterogeneity in effectiveness due to local transmission dynamics and behaviors, education on the importance of proper cooking, in combination with community-led sanitation and hygiene efforts, has implications for reducing morbidity due to cysticercosis and neurocysticercosis.

Seeding COVID-19 across Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Reported Importation Events across 49 Countries.

The first case of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was reported by Nigeria on February 27, 2020. Whereas case counts in the entire region remain considerably less than those being reported by individual countries in Europe, Asia, and the Americas, variation in preparedness and response capacity as well as in data availability has raised concerns about undetected transmission events in the SSA region. To capture epidemiological details related to early transmission events into and within countries, a line list was developed from publicly available data on institutional websites, situation reports, press releases, and social media accounts. The availability of indicators-gender, age, travel history, date of arrival in country, reporting date of confirmation, and how detected-for each imported case was assessed. We evaluated the relationship between the time to first reported importation and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) overall score; 13,201 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported by 48 countries in SSA during the 54 days following the first known introduction to the region. Of the 2,516 cases for which travel history information was publicly available, 1,129 (44.9%) were considered importation events. Imported cases tended to be male (65.0%), with a median age of 41.0 years (range: 6 weeks-88 years; IQR: 31-54 years). A country's time to report its first importation was not related to the GHSI overall score, after controlling for air traffic. Countries in SSA generally reported with less publicly available detail over time and tended to have greater information on imported than local cases.

Quantifying Risk Tolerance Among Potential Living Kidney Donors With the Donor-Specific Risk Questionnaire.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Enhanced informed consent tools improve patient engagement. A novel visual aid measured potential donors' risk tolerance to postdonation kidney failure and assessed if the closeness of the relationship to the intended recipient altered willingness to accept risk. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis of donor evaluations at the time of enrollment into a longitudinal mixed-methods study between November 2014 and February 2016. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Three US kidney transplant centers. English-speaking adults presenting for in-person living kidney donor evaluation. EXPOSURE: Closeness of the relationship between the potential living donor and intended recipient. OUTCOME: Willingness to accept postdonation kidney failure. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: The Donor-Specific Risk Questionnaire, a dot matrix visual diagram, was used to measure willingness to accept kidney failure risk. Multivariable logistic regression assessed associations between risk acceptance and data from social science instruments, which measured donors' perceived closeness with the recipient. Qualitative data were analyzed thematically per grounded theory. RESULTS: 307 participants (response rate: 86%) completed testing. 96% indicated a willingness to accept a risk of kidney failure of 0.9% or greater. Those who were older (OR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96-0.99]), women (OR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.31-0.93]), and Black (OR, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.08-0.76]) were less likely to be in the medium versus low willingness to accept risk group. Closeness of the relationship to the recipient was independently associated with greater risk acceptance (for every 1-point greater closeness score, odds ratios for being in the medium and high willingness to accept risk groups were 1.21 [95% CI, 1.03-1.41] and 2.42 [95% CI, 1.53-3.82] compared with being in the low willingness to accept risk group). With the exception of parental relationships, biological linkages were not associated with accepting higher kidney failure risk. LIMITATIONS: First demonstration of visual aid that used one risk estimate of kidney failure provided to all participants. Risk estimates were not customized to different demographic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Relationship closeness was independently associated with a greater willingness to accept postdonation kidney failure. Visual aids can provide transplant teams with individualized donor perspectives on risk thresholds and can potentially facilitate greater patient-centered care for living donors.

Participatory Design and Process Testing to Optimize Utility, Usability, and Acceptability of a Mobile Game for Promoting Evidence-Driven Public Health Decision-Making in Resource-Constrained Settings.

Innovative game-based training methods that leverage the ubiquity of cellphones and familiarity with phone-based interfaces have the potential to transform the training of public health practitioners in low-income countries such as Liberia. This article describes the design, development, and testing of a prototype of the Figure It Out mobile game. The prototype game uses a disease outbreak scenario to promote evidence-based decision-making in determining the causative agent and prescribing intervention measures to minimize epidemiological and logistical burdens in resource-limited settings. An initial prototype of the game developed by the US team was playtested and evaluated by focus groups with 20 University of Liberia Masters of Public Health (UL MPH) students. Results demonstrate that the learning objectives-improving search skills for identifying scientific evidence and considering evidence before decision-making during a public health emergency-were considered relevant and important in a setting that has repeatedly and recently experienced severe threats to public health. However, some of the game mechanics that were thought to enhance engagement such as trial-and-error and choose-your-own-path gameplay, were perceived by the target audience as distracting or too time-consuming, particularly in the context of a realistic emergency scenario. Gameplay metrics that mimicked real-world situations around lives lost, money spent, and time constraints during public health outbreaks were identified as relatable and necessary considerations. Our findings reflect cultural differences between the game development team and end users that have emphasized the need for end users to have an integral part of the design team; this formative evaluation has critically informed next steps in the iterative development process. Our multidisciplinary, cross-cultural and cross-national design team will be guided by Liberia-based public health students and faculty, as well as community members who represent our end user population in terms of experience and needs. These stakeholders will make key decisions regarding game objectives and mechanics, to be vetted and implemented by game design experts, epidemiologists, and software developers.

Clinical management and mortality among COVID-19 cases in sub-Saharan Africa: A retrospective study from Burkina Faso and simulated case analysis.

BACKGROUND: Absolute numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths reported to date in the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region have been significantly lower than those across the Americas, Asia and Europe. As a result, there has been limited information about the demographic and clinical characteristics of deceased cases in the region, as well as the impacts of different case management strategies. METHODS: Data from deceased cases reported across SSA through 10 May 2020 and from hospitalized cases in Burkina Faso through 15 April 2020 were analyzed. Demographic, epidemiological and clinical information on deceased cases in SSA was derived through a line-list of publicly available information and, for cases in Burkina Faso, from aggregate records at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Tengandogo in Ouagadougou. A synthetic case population was probabilistically derived using distributions of age, sex and underlying conditions from populations of West African countries to assess individual risk factors and treatment effect sizes. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the adjusted odds of survival for patients receiving oxygen therapy or convalescent plasma, based on therapeutic effectiveness observed for other respiratory illnesses. RESULTS: Across SSA, deceased cases for which demographic data were available were predominantly male (63/103, 61.2%) and aged >50 years (59/75, 78.7%). In Burkina Faso, specifically, the majority of deceased cases either did not seek care at all or were hospitalized for a single day (59.4%, 19/32). Hypertension and diabetes were often reported as underlying conditions. After adjustment for sex, age and underlying conditions in the synthetic case population, the odds of mortality for cases not receiving oxygen therapy were significantly higher than for those receiving oxygen, such as due to disruptions to standard care (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.56-2.75). Cases receiving convalescent plasma had 50% reduced odds of mortality than those who did not (95% CI 0.24-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Investment in sustainable production and maintenance of supplies for oxygen therapy, along with messaging around early and appropriate use for healthcare providers, caregivers and patients could reduce COVID-19 deaths in SSA. Further investigation into convalescent plasma is warranted until data on its effectiveness specifically in treating COVID-19 becomes available. The success of supportive or curative clinical interventions will depend on earlier treatment seeking, such that community engagement and risk communication will be critical components of the response.

Community engagement in outbreak response: lessons from the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone.

Documentation of structured community engagement initiatives and real-time monitoring of community engagement activities during large-scale epidemics is limited. To inform such initiatives, this paper analyses the Community Led Ebola Action (CLEA) approach implemented through the Social Mobilization Action Consortium (SMAC) during the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The SMAC initiative consisted of a network of 2466 community mobilisers, >6000 religious leaders and 42 local radio stations across all 14 districts of Sierra Leone. Community mobilisers were active in nearly 70% of all communities across the country using the CLEA approach to facilitate community analysis, trigger collective action planning and maintain community action plans over time. CLEA was complemented by interactive radio programming and intensified religious leader engagement.Community mobilisers trained in the CLEA approach used participatory methods, comprised of an initial community 'triggering' event, action plan development and weekly follow-ups to monitor progress on identified action items. Mobilisers collected operational and behavioural data on a weekly basis as part of CLEA. We conducted a retrospective analysis of >50 000 weekly reports from approximately 12 000 communities from December 2014 to September 2015. The data showed that 100% of the communities that were engaged had one or more action plans in place. Out of the 63 110 cumulative action points monitored by community mobilisers, 92% were marked as 'in-progress' (85%) or 'achieved' (7%) within 9 months. A qualitative examination of action points revealed that the in-progress status was indicative of the long-term sustainability of most action points (eg, continuous monitoring of visitors into the community) versus one-off action items that were marked as achieved (eg, initial installation of handwashing station). Analysis of behavioural outcomes of the intervention indicate an increase over time in the fraction of reported safe burials and fraction of reported cases referred for medical care within 24 hours of symptom onset in the communities that were engaged.Through CLEA, we have demonstrated how large-scale, coordinated community engagement interventions can be achieved and monitored in real-time during future Ebola epidemics and other similar epidemics. The SMAC initiative provides a practical model for the design, implementation and monitoring of community engagement, integration and coordination of community engagement interventions with other health emergency response pillars, and adaptive strategies for large-scale community-based operational data collection.

Unmet needs and behaviour during the Ebola response in Sierra Leone: a retrospective, mixed-methods analysis of community feedback from the Social Mobilization Action Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The west African Ebola epidemic (2014-15) necessitated behaviour change in settings with prevalent and pre-existing unmet needs as well as extensive mechanisms for local community action. We aimed to assess spatial and temporal trends in community-reported needs and associations with behaviour change, community engagement, and the overall outbreak situation in Sierra Leone. METHODS: We did a retrospective, mixed-methods study. Post-hoc analyses of data from 12 096 mobiliser visits as part of the Social Mobilization Action Consortium were used to describe the evolution of satisfied and unsatisfied needs (basic, security, autonomy, respect, and social support) between Nov 12, 2014, and Dec 18, 2015, and across 14 districts. Via Bayesian hierarchical regression modelling, we investigated associations between needs categories and behaviours (numbers of individuals referred to treatment within 24 h of symptom onset or deaths responded to with safe and dignified burials) and the role of community engagement programme status (initial vs follow-up visit) in the association between satisfied versus unsatisfied needs and behaviours. FINDINGS: In general, significant associations were observed between unsatisfied needs categories and both prompt referrals to treatment and safe burials. Most notably, communities expressing unsatisfied capacity needs reported fewer safe burials (relative risk [RR] 0·86, 95% credible interval [CrI] 0·82-0·91) and fewer prompt referrals to treatment (RR 0·76, 0·70-0·83) than did those without unsatisfied capacity needs. The exception was expression of unsatisfied basic needs, which was associated with significantly fewer prompt referrals only (RR 0·86, 95% CrI 0·79-0·93). Compared with triggering visits by community mobilisers, follow-up visits were associated with higher numbers of prompt referrals (RR 1·40, 95% CrI 1·30-1·50) and safe burials (RR 1·08, 1·02-1·14). INTERPRETATION: Community-based development of locally feasible, locally owned action plans, with the support of community mobilisers, has potential to address unmet needs for more sustained behaviour change in outbreak settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institutes of Health.

Surgery for the Very Old: Are Nonagenarians Different?

Octogenarians and nonagenarians are considered the "very old" and are often viewed as one group. Americans are aging, with the proportion of the very old expected to increase from 1.9 per cent of the population to 4.3 per cent in 2050. This study aimed to underscore the differences in surgical trends, demographics, and outcomes between octogenarians and nonagenarians. The ACS-NSQIP database (2007-2012) was used to derive the type of surgeries, demographics, and outcomes of octogenarian and nonagenarians undergoing nonemergent vascular, orthopedic, and general surgery procedures. Between 2007 and 2012, nonagenarians accounted for an increasing percentage of surgeries (85 to 121 per 10,000 surgeries, relative risk = 1.42; 95% CI: 1.30-1.54) across surgical specialties, including vascular, general, and orthopedic surgery, whereas the percentage of octogenarians undergoing surgery remained unchanged. Nonagenarians had a higher 30-day perioperative mortality and a longer hospital stay than octogenarians after vascular, orthopedic, and general surgery procedures. Nonagenarians are a rapidly growing group of surgical patients with significantly higher perioperative mortality and longer postoperative hospital stay. The impact of surgery on the quality of life of nonagenarians needs to be studied to justify the increasing healthcare costs.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of measles outbreaks in Cameroon.

PURPOSE: In 2012, Cameroon experienced a large measles outbreak of over 14,000 cases. To determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of measles transmission in Cameroon, we analyzed weekly case data collected by the Ministry of Health. METHODS: We compared several multivariate time-series models of population movement to characterize the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Using the best model, we evaluated the contribution of population mobility to disease transmission at increasing geographic resolutions: region, department, and health district. RESULTS: Our spatio-temporal analysis showed that the power law model, which accounts for long-distance population movement, best represents the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Population movement between health districts within departments contributed to 7.6% (range: 0.4%-13.4%) of cases at the district level, whereas movement between departments within regions contributed to 16.0% (range: 1.3%-23.2%) of cases. Long-distance movement between regions contributed to 16.7% (range: 0.1%-59.0%) of cases at the region level, 20.1% (range: 7.1%-30.0%) at the department level, and 29.7% (range: 15.3%-47.6%) at the health district level. CONCLUSIONS: Population long-distance mobility is an important driver of measles dynamics in Cameroon. These findings demonstrate the need to improve our understanding of the roles of population mobility and local heterogeneity of vaccination coverage in the spread and control of measles in Cameroon.

Strengthening acute flaccid paralysis surveillance post Ebola virus disease outbreak 2015 - 2017: the Liberia experience.

INTRODUCTION: Liberia remains at high risk of poliovirus outbreaks due to importation. The country maintained certification level acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance indicators each year until 2014 due to Ebola outbreak. During this time, there was a significant drop in non-polio AFP rate to (1.2/100,000 population under 15 years) in 2015 from 2.9/100, 000 population in 2013, due to a variety of reasons including suspension on shipment of acute flaccid paralysis stool specimen to the polio regional lab in Abidjan, refocusing of surveillance officers attention solely on Ebola virus disease (EVD) surveillance, inactivation of national polio expert committee (NPEC) and National Certification Committee (NCC). The Ministry of Health (MOH) supported by partners worked to restore AFP surveillance post EVD outbreak and ensure that Liberia maintains its polio free certification. METHODS: We conducted a desk review to summarize key activities conducted to restore acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance based on World Health Organization (WHO) AFP surveillance guidelines for Africa region. We also reviewed AFP surveillance indicators and introduction of new technologies. Data sources were from program reports, scientific and gray literature, AFP database, auto visual AFP detection and reporting (AVADAR) and ONA Servers. Data analysis was done using Microsoft excel and access spread sheets, ONA software and Geographic Information System (Arc GIS). RESULTS: AFP surveillance indicators improved with a rebound of non-polio AFP rate (NPAFP) rate from 1.2/100, 000 population under 15 years in 2015 to 4.3 in 2017. The stool adequacy rate at the national level also improved from 79% in 2016 to 82% in 2017, meeting the global target. The percentage of counties meeting the two critical AFP surveillance indicators NPAFP rate and stool adequacy improved from 47% in 2016 to 67% in 2017.The Last polio case reported in Liberia was in late 2010. CONCLUSION: There was significant improvement in the key AFP surveillance indicators such as NPAFP rate and stool adequacy with a 3.5 fold increase in NPAFP from 2014 to 2017. By 2017, the stool adequacy rate was up to target levels compared to 2016, which was below target level of 80%. The number of counties meeting target for the two critical AFP surveillance indicators also increased by 20% points between 2016 and 2017. Similarly there was approximately two-fold increase in the oral polio vaccines (OPV) coverage for the reported AFP cases between 2015 and 2017. Strategies employed to address gaps in AFP surveillance included enhanced active case search for AFP, re-instatement of laboratory testing, supportive supervision in addition to facilitating enhanced community engagement in surveillance activities. New technologies such as AVADAR Pilot, electronic integrated supportive supervision (ISS) and electronic surveillance (eSurv) tools were introduced to improve real time AFP case reporting. However, there remain residual gaps in AFP surveillance in the country especially at the sub-national level. Similarly, the newly introduced technologies will require continued funding and capacity building for MOH staff to ensure sustainability of the initiatives.