Global risk of selection and spread of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 gene deletions.

In the thirteen years since the first report of pfhrp2-deleted parasites in 2010, the World Health Organization (WHO) has found that 40 of 47 countries surveyed worldwide have reported pfhrp2/3 gene deletions. Due to a high prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions causing false-negative HRP2 RDTs, in the last five years, Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia have switched or started switching to using alternative RDTs, that target pan-specific-pLDH or P. falciparum specific-pLDH alone of in combination with HRP2. However, manufacturing of alternative RDTs has not been brought to scale and there are no WHO prequalified combination tests that use Pf-pLDH instead of HRP2 for P. falciparum detection. For these reasons, the continued spread of pfhrp2/3 deletions represents a growing public health crisis that threatens efforts to control and eliminate P. falciparum malaria. National malaria control programmes, their implementing partners and test developers desperately seek pfhrp2/3 deletion data that can inform their immediate and future resource allocation. In response, we use a mathematical modelling approach to evaluate the global risk posed by pfhrp2/3 deletions and explore scenarios for how deletions will continue to spread in Africa. We incorporate current best estimates of the prevalence of pfhrp2/3 deletions and conduct a literature review to estimate model parameters known to impact the selection of pfhrp2/3 deletions for each malaria endemic country. We identify 20 countries worldwide to prioritise for surveillance and future deployment of alternative RDT, based on quickly selecting for pfhrp2/3 deletions once established. In scenarios designed to explore the continued spread of deletions in Africa, we identify 10 high threat countries that are most at risk of deletions both spreading to and subsequently being rapidly selected for. If HRP2-based RDTs continue to be relied on for malaria case management, we predict that the major route for pfhrp2 deletions to spread is south out from the current hotspot in the Horn of Africa, moving through East Africa over the next 20 years. We explore the variation in modelled timelines through an extensive parameter sensitivity analysis and despite wide uncertainties, we identify three countries that have not yet switched RDTs (Senegal, Zambia and Kenya) that are robustly identified as high risk for pfhrp2/3 deletions. These results provide a refined and updated prediction model for the emergence of pfhrp2/3 deletions in an effort to help guide pfhrp2/3 policy and prioritise future surveillance efforts and innovation.

Assessing national vector control micro-planning in Zambia using the 2021 malaria indicator survey.

BACKGROUND: In 2020, the Zambia National Malaria Elimination Centre targeted the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor-residual spraying (IRS) campaigns based on sub-district micro-planning, where specified geographical areas at the health facility catchment level were assigned to receive either LLINs or IRS. Using data from the 2021 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), the objectives of this analysis were to (1) assess how well the micro-planning was followed in distributing LLINs and IRS, (2) investigate factors that contributed to whether households received what was planned, and (3) investigate how overall coverage observed in the 2021 MIS compared to the 2018 MIS conducted prior to micro-planning. METHODS: Households' receipt of ≥ 1 LLIN, and/or IRS within the past 12 months in the 2021 MIS, was compared against the micro-planning area under which the households fell. GPS points for 3,550 households were overlayed onto digitized micro-planning maps in order to determine what micro-plan the households fell under, and thus whether they received their planned intervention. Mixed-effects regression models were conducted to investigate what factors affected whether these households: (1) received their planned intervention, and (2) received any intervention. Finally, coverage indicators between the 2021 and 2018 MIS were compared. RESULTS: Overall, 60.0% (95%CI 55.4, 64.4) of households under a micro-plan received their assigned intervention, with significantly higher coverage of the planned intervention in LLIN-assigned areas (75.7% [95%CI 69.5, 80.9]) compared to IRS-assigned areas (49.4% [95%CI: 44.4, 54.4]). Regression analysis indicated that households falling under the IRS micro-plan had significantly reduced odds of receiving their planned intervention (OR: 0.34 [95%CI 0.24, 0.48]), and significantly reduced odds of receiving any intervention (OR: 0.51 [95%CI 0.37, 0.72] ), compared to households under the LLIN micro-plan. Comparison between the 2021 and 2018 MIS indicated a 27% reduction in LLIN coverage nationally in 2021, while IRS coverage was similar. Additionally, between 2018 and 2021, there was a 13% increase in households that received neither intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that although the micro-planning strategy adopted in 2020 worked much better for LLIN-assigned areas compared to IRS-assigned areas, there was reduced overall vector control coverage in 2021 compared to 2018 before micro-planning.

Process and Methodological Considerations for Observational Analyses of Vector Control Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Routine Malaria Data.

Progress in malaria control has stalled in recent years. With growing resistance to existing malaria vector control insecticides and the introduction of new vector control products, national malaria control programs (NMCPs) increasingly need to make data-driven, subnational decisions to inform vector control deployment. As NMCPs are increasingly conducting subnational stratification of malaria control interventions, including malaria vector control, country-specific frameworks and platforms are increasingly needed to guide data use for vector control deployment. Integration of routine health systems data, entomological data, and vector control program data in observational longitudinal analyses offers an opportunity for NMCPs and research institutions to conduct evaluations of existing and novel vector control interventions. Drawing on the experience of implementing 22 vector control evaluations across 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as published and gray literature on vector control impact evaluations using routine health information system data, this article provides practical guidance on the design of these evaluations, makes recommendations for key variables and data sources, and proposes methods to address challenges in data quality. Key recommendations include appropriate parameterization of impact and coverage indicators, incorporating explanatory covariates and contextual factors from multiple sources (including rapid diagnostic testing stockouts; insecticide susceptibility; vector density measures; vector control coverage, use, and durability; climate and other malaria and non-malaria health programs), and assessing data quality before the evaluation through either on-the-ground or remote data quality assessments. These recommendations may increase the frequency, rigor, and utilization of routine data sources to inform national program decision-making for vector control.

Antigen concentration, viral load, and test performance for SARS-CoV-2 in multiple specimen types.

The relationship between N-antigen concentration and viral load within and across different specimens guides the clinical performance of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) in different uses. A prospective study was conducted in Porto Velho, Brazil, to investigate RDT performance in different specimen types as a function of the correlation between antigen concentration and viral load. The study included 214 close contacts with recent exposures to confirmed cases, aged 12 years and older and with various levels of vaccination. Antigen concentration was measured in nasopharyngeal swab (NPS), anterior nares swab (ANS), and saliva specimens. Reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR was conducted on the NPS and saliva specimens, and two RDTs were conducted on ANS and one RDT on saliva. Antigen concentration correlated well with viral load when measured in the same specimen type but not across specimen types. Antigen levels were higher in symptomatic cases compared to asymptomatic/oligosymptomatic cases and lower in saliva compared to NPS and ANS samples. Discordant results between the RDTs conducted on ANS and the RT-PCR on NPS were resolved by antigen concentration values. The analytical limit-of-detection of RDTs can be used to predict the performance of the tests in populations for which the antigen concentration is known. The antigen dynamics across different sample types observed in SARS-CoV-2 disease progression support use of RDTs with nasal samples. Given lower antigen concentrations in saliva, rapid testing using saliva is expected to require improved RDT analytical sensitivity to achieve clinical sensitivity similar to rapid testing of nasal samples.

Protocol for a cluster randomised placebo-controlled trial of adjunctive ivermectin mass drug administration for malaria control on the Bijagós Archipelago of Guinea-Bissau: the MATAMAL trial.

INTRODUCTION: As malaria declines, innovative tools are required to further reduce transmission and achieve elimination. Mass drug administration (MDA) of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is capable of reducing malaria transmission where coverage of control interventions is already high, though the impact is short-lived. Combining ACT with ivermectin, an oral endectocide shown to reduce vector survival, may increase its impact, while also treating ivermectin-sensitive co-endemic diseases and minimising the potential impact of ACT resistance in this context. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: MATAMAL is a cluster-randomised placebo-controlled trial. The trial is being conducted in 24 clusters on the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau, where the peak prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) parasitaemia is approximately 15%. Clusters have been randomly allocated to receive MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine and either ivermectin or placebo. The primary objective is to determine whether the addition of ivermectin MDA is more effective than dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine MDA alone in reducing the prevalence of P. falciparum parasitaemia, measured during peak transmission season after 2 years of seasonal MDA. Secondary objectives include assessing prevalence after 1 year of MDA; malaria incidence monitored through active and passive surveillance; age-adjusted prevalence of serological markers indicating exposure to P. falciparum and anopheline mosquitoes; vector parous rates, species composition, population density and sporozoite rates; prevalence of vector pyrethroid resistance; prevalence of artemisinin resistance in P. falciparum using genomic markers; ivermectin's impact on co-endemic diseases; coverage estimates; and the safety of combined MDA. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial has been approved by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's Ethics Committee (UK) (19156) and the Comite Nacional de Eticas de Saude (Guinea-Bissau) (084/CNES/INASA/2020). Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications and in discussion with the Bissau-Guinean Ministry of Public Health and participating communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04844905.

A Reagent and Virus Benchmarking Panel for a Uniform Analytical Performance Assessment of N Antigen-Based Diagnostic Tests for COVID-19.

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) that detect antigen indicative of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can help in making quick health care decisions and regularly monitoring groups at risk of infection. With many RDT products entering the market, it is important to rapidly evaluate their relative performance. Comparison of clinical evaluation study results is challenged by protocol design variations and study populations. Laboratory assays were developed to quantify nucleocapsid (N) and spike (S) SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Quantification of the two antigens in nasal eluates confirmed higher abundance of N than S antigen. The median concentration of N antigen was 10 times greater than S per genome equivalent. The N antigen assay was used in combination with quantitative reverse transcription (RT)-PCR to qualify a panel composed of recombinant antigens, inactivated virus, and clinical specimen pools. This benchmarking panel was applied to evaluate the analytical performance of the SD Biosensor Standard Q COVID-19 antigen (Ag) test, Abbott Panbio COVID-19 Ag rapid test, Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag test, and the LumiraDx SARS-CoV-2 Ag test. The four tests displayed different sensitivities toward the different panel members, but all performed best with the clinical specimen pool. The concentration for a 90% probability of detection across the four tests ranged from 21 to 102 pg/mL of N antigen in the extracted sample. Benchmarking panels provide a quick way to verify the baseline performance of a diagnostic and enable direct comparisons between diagnostic tests. IMPORTANCE This study reports the results for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) nucleocapsid (N) and spike (S) antigen quantification assays and their performance against clinical reverse transcription (RT)-PCR results, thus describing an open-access quantification method for two important SARS-CoV-2 protein analytes. Characterized N antigen panels were used to evaluate the limits of detection of four different rapid tests for SARS-CoV-2 against multiple sources of nucleocapsid antigen, demonstrating proof-of-concept materials and methodology to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen detection tests. Quantification of N antigen was used to characterize the relationship between viral count and antigen concentration among clinical samples and panel members of both clinical sample and viral culture origin. This contributes to a deeper understanding of protein antigen and molecular analytes and presents analytical methods complementary to clinical evaluation for characterizing the performance of both laboratory-based and point-of-care rapid diagnostics for SARS-CoV-2.

Repeat Ivermectin Mass Drug Administrations for Malaria Control II: Protocol for a Double-blind, Cluster-Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial for the Integrated Control of Malaria.

BACKGROUND: The gains made against malaria have stagnated since 2015, threatened further by increasing resistance to insecticides and antimalarials. Improvement in malaria control necessitates a multipronged strategy, which includes the development of novel tools. One such tool is mass drug administration (MDA) with endectocides, primarily ivermectin, which has shown promise in reducing malaria transmission through lethal and sublethal impacts on the mosquito vector. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of the study is to assess the impact of repeated ivermectin MDA on malaria incidence in children aged ≤10 years. METHODS: Repeat Ivermectin MDA for Malaria Control II is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cluster-randomized, and parallel-group trial conducted in a setting with intense seasonal malaria transmission in Southwest Burkina Faso. The study included 14 discrete villages: 7 (50%) randomized to receive standard measures (seasonal malaria chemoprevention [SMC] and bed net use for children aged 3 to 59 months) and placebo, and 7 (50%) randomized to receive standard measures and monthly ivermectin MDA at 300 µg/kg for 3 consecutive days, provided under supervision to all eligible village inhabitants, over 2 successive rainy seasons. Nonpregnant individuals >90 cm in height were eligible for ivermectin MDA, and cotreatment with ivermectin and SMC was not permitted. The primary outcome is malaria incidence in children aged ≤10 years, as assessed by active case surveillance. The secondary safety outcome of repeated ivermectin MDA was assessed through active and passive adverse event monitoring. RESULTS: The trial intervention was conducted from July to November in 2019 and 2020, with additional sampling of humans and mosquitoes occurring through February 2022 to assess postintervention changes in transmission patterns. Additional human and entomological assessments were performed over the 2 years in a subset of households from 6 cross-sectional villages. A subset of individuals underwent additional sampling in 2020 to characterize ivermectin pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. Analysis and unblinding will commence once the database has been completed, cleaned, and locked. CONCLUSIONS: Our trial represents the first study to directly assess the impact of a novel approach for malaria control, ivermectin MDA as a mosquitocidal agent, layered into existing standard-of-care interventions. The study was designed to leverage the current SMC deployment infrastructure and will provide evidence regarding the additional benefit of ivermectin MDA in reducing malaria incidence in children. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03967054; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03967054 and Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACT201907479787308; https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=8219. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/41197.

"We're All the Same and We Love Football." Experiences of Players and Facilitators Regarding a Collaborative, Inclusive Football Program Between Academy and Special Olympics Footballers.

This study provides insight into an inclusive program between Special Olympics (SO) and academy football (soccer) players in the United Kingdom from the perspectives of players and facilitators. Qualitative focus groups were conducted across 30 participants (six facilitators, 14 Premier League academy players, and 10 SO players). Focus groups compared stakeholders' experiences of participating in a season-long inclusive football program. Three overarching higher order themes were generated, which highlighted positive outcomes from taking part. SO players provided endorsement for developing friendships and improving football skills, whereas academy players cited the positive impact that SO players had on their mood and motivation. Facilitators reflected on positive player outcomes and subsequent accomplishments. Overall, the findings indicated that this shared experience had psychosocial and football-specific benefits for everyone who participated. Facilitators indicated that these benefits could transition into everyday life but noted that there needs to be further considerations for future programs.

Effectiveness of community case management of malaria on severe malaria and inpatient malaria deaths in Zambia: a dose-response study using routine health information system data.

BACKGROUND: Community case management of malaria (CCM) has been expanded in many settings, but there are limited data describing the impact of these services in routine implementation settings or at large scale. Zambia has intensively expanded CCM since 2013, whereby trained volunteer community health workers (CHW) use rapid diagnostic tests and artemether-lumefantrine to diagnose and treat uncomplicated malaria. METHODS: This retrospective, observational study explored associations between changing malaria service point (health facility or CHW) density per 1000 people and severe malaria admissions or malaria inpatient deaths by district and month in a dose-response approach, using existing routine and programmatic data. Negative binomial generalized linear mixed-effect models were used to assess the impact of increasing one additional malaria service point per 1000 population, and of achieving Zambia's interim target of 1 service point per 750 population. Access to insecticide-treated nets, indoor-residual spraying, and rainfall anomaly were included in models to reduce potential confounding. RESULTS: The study captured 310,855 malaria admissions and 7158 inpatient malaria deaths over 83 districts (seven provinces) from January 2015 to May 2020. Total CHWs increased from 43 to 4503 during the study period, while health facilities increased from 1263 to 1765. After accounting for covariates, an increase of one malaria service point per 1000 was associated with a 19% reduction in severe malaria admissions among children under five (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.87, p < 0.001) and 23% reduction in malaria deaths among under-fives (IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66-0.91). After categorizing the exposure of population per malaria service point, there was evidence for an effect on malaria admissions and inpatient malaria deaths among children under five only when reaching the target of one malaria service point per 750 population. CONCLUSIONS: CCM is an effective strategy for preventing severe malaria and deaths in areas such as Zambia where malaria diagnosis and treatment access remains challenging. These results support the continued investment in CCM scale-up in similar settings, to improve access to malaria diagnosis and treatment.

Malaria in pregnancy (MiP) studies assessing the clinical performance of highly sensitive rapid diagnostic tests (HS-RDT) for Plasmodium falciparum detection.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are effective tools to diagnose and inform the treatment of malaria in adults and children. The recent development of a highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (HS-RDT) for Plasmodium falciparum has prompted questions over whether it could improve the diagnosis of malaria in pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes in malaria endemic areas. METHODS: This landscape review collates studies addressing the clinical performance of the HS-RDT. Thirteen studies were identified comparing the HS-RDT and conventional RDT (co-RDT) to molecular methods to detect malaria in pregnancy. Using data from five completed studies, the association of epidemiological and pregnancy-related factors on the sensitivity of HS-RDT, and comparisons with co-RDT were investigated. The studies were conducted in 4 countries over a range of transmission intensities in largely asymptomatic women. RESULTS: Sensitivity of both RDTs varied widely (HS-RDT range 19.6 to 85.7%, co-RDT range 22.8 to 82.8% compared to molecular testing) yet HS-RDT detected individuals with similar parasite densities across all the studies including different geographies and transmission areas [geometric mean parasitaemia around 100 parasites per µL (p/µL)]. HS-RDTs were capable of detecting low-density parasitaemias and in one study detected around 30% of infections with parasite densities of 0-2 p/µL compared to the co-RDT in the same study which detected around 15%. CONCLUSION: The HS-RDT has a slightly higher analytical sensitivity to detect malaria infections in pregnancy than co-RDT but this mostly translates to only fractional and not statistically significant improvement in clinical performance by gravidity, trimester, geography or transmission intensity. The analysis presented here highlights the need for larger and more studies to evaluate incremental improvements in RDTs. The HS-RDT could be used in any situation where co-RDT are currently used for P. falciparum diagnosis, if storage conditions can be adhered to.

Characterization of Adult Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder that Use Patient Portal.

Patients with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) access healthcare frequently, yet little is known about their interactions with patient portals. To describe adults with ASD using patient portal, we conducted regression analyses of visit history, demographics, co-occurring conditions and diagnoses, and patient portal use to determine factors most indicative of whether a patient 1) has sent at least one message (via patient or proxy) and 2) has at least one message sent on their behalf via a proxy account after they turned 18 years old. The 2,412-person cohort had 996 (41.3%) patients who had sent at least one message on their account with 129 (5.3%) of patients having at least one proxy message. This study found that adults with ASD are less likely to use messaging functionality and more likely to have a message sent via proxy than other patient populations. Comorbid mental illness was correlated with using messaging functionality.

Screening for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Close Contacts of Individuals With Confirmed Infection: Performance and Operational Considerations.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care and decentralized testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is critical to inform public health responses. Performance evaluations in priority use cases such as contact tracing can highlight trade-offs in test selection and testing strategies. METHODS: A prospective diagnostic accuracy study was conducted among close contacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Brazil. Two anterior nares swabs (ANS), a nasopharyngeal swab (NPS), and saliva were collected at all visits. Vaccination history and symptoms were assessed. Household contacts were followed longitudinally. Three rapid antigen tests and 1 molecular method were evaluated for usability and performance against reference reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on nasopharyngeal swab specimens. RESULTS: Fifty index cases and 214 contacts (64 household) were enrolled. Sixty-five contacts were RT-PCR positive during ≥1 visit. Vaccination did not influence viral load. Gamma variants were most prevalent; Delta variants emerged increasingly during implementation. The overall sensitivity of evaluated tests ranged from 33% to 76%. Performance was higher among symptomatic cases and those with cycle threshold (Ct) values <34 and lower among oligosymptomatic or asymptomatic cases. Assuming a 24-hour time to results for RT-PCR, the cumulative sensitivity of an anterior nares swab rapid antigen test was >70% and almost 90% after 4 days. CONCLUSIONS: The near-immediate time to results for antigen tests significantly offsets lower analytical sensitivity in settings where RT-PCR results are delayed or unavailable.

Performance and utility of more highly sensitive malaria rapid diagnostic tests.

BACKGROUND: A new more highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (HS-RDT) for Plasmodium falciparum malaria (Alere™/Abbott Malaria Ag P.f RDT [05FK140], now called NxTek™ Eliminate Malaria Ag Pf) was launched in 2017. The test has already been used in many research studies in a wide range of geographies and use cases. METHODS: In this study, we collate all published and available unpublished studies that use the HS-RDT and assess its performance in (i) prevalence surveys, (ii) clinical diagnosis, (iii) screening pregnant women, and (iv) active case detection. Two individual-level data sets from asymptomatic populations are used to fit logistic regression models to estimate the probability of HS-RDT positivity based on histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) concentration and parasite density. The performance of the HS-RDT in prevalence surveys is estimated by calculating the sensitivity and positive proportion in comparison to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and conventional malaria RDTs. RESULTS: We find that across 18 studies, in prevalence surveys, the mean sensitivity of the HS-RDT is estimated to be 56.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.9-65.4%) compared to 44.3% (95% CI 32.6-56.0%) for a conventional RDT (co-RDT) when using nucleic acid amplification techniques as the reference standard. In studies where prevalence was estimated using both the HS-RDT and a co-RDT, we found that prevalence was on average 46% higher using a HS-RDT compared to a co-RDT. For use in clinical diagnosis and screening pregnant women, the HS-RDT was not significantly more sensitive than a co-RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the evidence presented here suggests that the HS-RDT is more sensitive in asymptomatic populations and could provide a marginal improvement in clinical diagnosis and screening pregnant women. Although the HS-RDT has limited temperature stability and shelf-life claims compared to co-RDTs, there is no evidence to suggest, given this test has the same cost as current RDTs, it would have any negative impacts in terms of malaria misdiagnosis if it were widely used in all four population groups explored here.

Evaluating the Impact of Programmatic Mass Drug Administration for Malaria in Zambia Using Routine Incidence Data.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the Zambian National Malaria Elimination Centre started programmatic mass drug administration (pMDA) campaigns with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as a malaria elimination tool in Southern Province. Two rounds were administered, 2 months apart (coverage 70% and 57%, respectively). We evaluated the impact of 1 year of pMDA on malaria incidence using routine data. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series with comparison group analysis on monthly incidence data collected at the health facility catchment area (HFCA) level, with a negative binomial model using generalized estimating equations. Programmatic mass drug administration was conducted in HFCAs with greater than 50 cases/1000 people per year. Ten HFCAs with incidence rates marginally above this threshold (pMDA group) were compared with 20 HFCAs marginally below (comparison group). RESULTS: The pMDA HFCAs saw a 46% greater decrease in incidence at the time of intervention than the comparison areas (incidence rate ratio = 0.536; confidence interval = 0.337-0.852); however, incidence increased toward the end of the season. No HFCAs saw a transmission interruption. CONCLUSIONS: Programmatic mass drug administration, implemented during 1 year with imperfect coverage in low transmission areas with suboptimal vector control coverage, significantly reduced incidence. However, elimination will require additional tools. Routine data are important resources for programmatic impact evaluations and should be considered for future analyses.

Mass drug administration of ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine against malaria in settings with high coverage of standard control interventions: a cluster-randomised controlled trial in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Although the malaria burden has substantially decreased in sub-Saharan Africa, progress has stalled. We assessed whether mass administration of ivermectin (a mosquitocidal drug) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (an antimalarial treatment) reduces malaria in The Gambia, an area with high coverage of standard control interventions. METHODS: This open-label, cluster-randomised controlled trial was done in the Upper River region of eastern Gambia. Villages with a baseline Plasmodium falciparum prevalence of 7-46% (all ages) and separated from each other by at least 3 km to reduce vector spillover were selected. Inclusion criteria were age and anthropometry (for ivermectin, weight of ≥15 kg; for dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, participants older than 6 months); willingness to comply with trial procedures; and written informed consent. Villages were randomised (1:1) to either the intervention (ivermectin [orally at 300-400 µg/kg per day for 3 consecutive days] and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine [orally depending on bodyweight] plus standard control interventions) or the control group (standard control interventions) using computer-based randomisation. Laboratory staff were masked to the origin of samples. In the intervention group, three rounds of mass drug administration once per month with ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine were given during two malaria transmission seasons from Aug 27 to Oct 31, 2018, and from July 15 to Sept 30, 2019. Primary outcomes were malaria prevalence by qPCR at the end of the second intervention year in November 2019, and Anopheles gambiae (s l) parous rate, analysed in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03576313. FINDINGS: Between Nov 20 and Dec 7, 2017, 47 villages were screened for eligibility in the study. 15 were excluded because the baseline malaria prevalence was less than 7% (figure 1). 32 villages were enrolled and randomised to either the intervention or control group (n=16 in each group). The study population was 10 638, of which 4939 (46%) participants were in intervention villages. Coverage for dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine was between 49·0% and 58·4% in 2018, and between 76·1% and 86·0% in 2019; for ivermectin, coverage was between 46·9% and 52·2% in 2018, and between 71·7% and 82·9% in 2019. In November 2019, malaria prevalence was 12·8% (324 of 2529) in the control group and 5·1% (140 of 2722) in the intervention group (odds ratio [OR] 0·30, 95% CI 0·16-0·59; p<0·001). A gambiae (s l) parous rate was 83·1% (552 of 664) in the control group and 81·7% (441 of 540) in the intervention group (0·90, 0·66-1·25; p=0·537). In 2019, adverse events were recorded in 386 (9·7%) of 3991 participants in round one, 201 (5·4%) of 3750 in round two, and 168 (4·5%) of 3752 in round three. None of the 11 serious adverse events were related to the intervention. INTERPRETATION: The intervention was safe and well tolerated. In an area with high coverage of standard control interventions, mass drug administration of ivermectin and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine significantly reduced malaria prevalence; however, no effect of ivermectin on vector parous rate was observed. FUNDING: Joint Global Health Trials Scheme. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global patterns of submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection: insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis of population surveys.

BACKGROUND: Adoption of molecular techniques to detect Plasmodium falciparum infection has revealed many previously undetected (by microscopy) yet transmissible low-density infections. The proportion of these infections is typically highest in low transmission settings, but drivers of submicroscopic infection remain unclear. Here, we updated a previous systematic review of asexual P falciparum prevalence by microscopy PCR in the same population. We aimed to explore potential drivers of submicroscopic infection and to identify the locations where submicroscopic infections are most common. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched PubMed and Web of Science from Jan 1, 2010, until Oct 11, 2020, for cross-sectional studies reporting data on asexual P falciparum prevalence by both microscopy and PCR. Surveys of pregnant women, surveys in which participants had been chosen based on symptoms or treatment, or surveys that did not involve a population from a defined location were excluded. Both the number of individuals tested and the number of individuals who tested positive by microscopy or PCR, or both, for P falciparum infection were extracted. Bayesian regression modelling was used to explore determinants of the size of the submicroscopic reservoir including geographical location, seasonality, age, methodology, and current or historical patterns of transmission. FINDINGS: Of 4893 identified studies, we retained 121 after screening and removal of duplicates. 45 studies from a previous systematic review were included giving 166 studies containing 551 cross-sectional survey microscopy and PCR prevalence pairs. Our results show that submicroscopic infections predominate in low-transmission settings across all regions, but also reveal marked geographical variation, with the proportion of infections that are submicroscopic being highest in South American surveys and lowest in west African surveys. Although current transmission levels partly explain these results, we find that historical transmission intensity also represents a crucial determinant of the size of the submicroscopic reservoir, as does the demographic structure of the infected population (with submicroscopic infection more likely to occur in adults than in children) and the PCR or microscopy methodology used. We also observed a small yet significant influence of seasonality, with fewer submicroscopic infections observed in the wet season than the dry season. Integrating these results with estimates of infectivity in relation to parasite density suggests the contribution of submicroscopic infections to transmission across different settings is likely to be highly variable. INTERPRETATION: Significant variation in the prevalence of submicroscopic infection exists even across settings characterised by similar current levels of transmission. These differences in submicroscopic epidemiology potentially warrant different approaches to targeting this infected subgroup across different settings to eliminate malaria. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Royal Society, and the UK Medical Research Council.

Design and analysis of a 2-year parallel follow-up of repeated ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria: Small sample considerations for cluster-randomized trials with count data.

BACKGROUND: Cluster-randomized trials allow for the evaluation of a community-level or group-/cluster-level intervention. For studies that require a cluster-randomized trial design to evaluate cluster-level interventions aimed at controlling vector-borne diseases, it may be difficult to assess a large number of clusters while performing the additional work needed to monitor participants, vectors, and environmental factors associated with the disease. One such example of a cluster-randomized trial with few clusters was the "efficacy and risk of harms of repeated ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria" trial. Although previous work has provided recommendations for analyzing trials like repeated ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria, additional evaluation of the multiple approaches for analysis is needed for study designs with count outcomes. METHODS: Using a simulation study, we applied three analysis frameworks to three cluster-randomized trial designs (single-year, 2-year parallel, and 2-year crossover) in the context of a 2-year parallel follow-up of repeated ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria. Mixed-effects models, generalized estimating equations, and cluster-level analyses were evaluated. Additional 2-year parallel designs with different numbers of clusters and different cluster correlations were also explored. RESULTS: Mixed-effects models with a small sample correction and unweighted cluster-level summaries yielded both high power and control of the Type I error rate. Generalized estimating equation approaches that utilized small sample corrections controlled the Type I error rate but did not confer greater power when compared to a mixed model approach with small sample correction. The crossover design generally yielded higher power relative to the parallel equivalent. Differences in power between analysis methods became less pronounced as the number of clusters increased. The strength of within-cluster correlation impacted the relative differences in power. CONCLUSION: Regardless of study design, cluster-level analyses as well as individual-level analyses like mixed-effects models or generalized estimating equations with small sample size corrections can both provide reliable results in small cluster settings. For 2-year parallel follow-up of repeated ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria, we recommend a mixed-effects model with a pseudo-likelihood approximation method and Kenward-Roger correction. Similarly designed studies with small sample sizes and count outcomes should consider adjustments for small sample sizes when using a mixed-effects model or generalized estimating equation for analysis. Although the 2-year parallel follow-up of repeated ivermectin mass drug administrations for control of malaria is already underway as a parallel trial, applying the simulation parameters to a crossover design yielded improved power, suggesting that crossover designs may be valuable in settings where the number of available clusters is limited. Finally, the sensitivity of the analysis approach to the strength of within-cluster correlation should be carefully considered when selecting the primary analysis for a cluster-randomized trial.

Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling.

Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance.

Quantifying Plasmodium falciparum infections clustering within households to inform household-based intervention strategies for malaria control programs: An observational study and meta-analysis from 41 malaria-endemic countries.

BACKGROUND: Reactive malaria strategies are predicated on the assumption that individuals infected with malaria are clustered within households or neighbourhoods. Despite the widespread programmatic implementation of reactive strategies, little empirical evidence exists as to whether such strategies are appropriate and, if so, how they should be most effectively implemented. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collated 2 different datasets to assess clustering of malaria infections within households: (i) demographic health survey (DHS) data, integrating household information and patent malaria infection, recent fever, and recent treatment status in children; and (ii) data from cross-sectional and reactive detection studies containing information on the household and malaria infection status (patent and subpatent) of all-aged individuals. Both datasets were used to assess the odds of infections clustering within index households, where index households were defined based on whether they contained infections detectable through one of 3 programmatic strategies: (a) Reactive Case Detection (RACD) classifed by confirmed clinical cases, (b) Mass Screen and Treat (MSAT) classifed by febrile, symptomatic infections, and (c) Mass Test and Treat (MTAT) classifed by infections detectable using routine diagnostics. Data included 59,050 infections in 208,140 children under 7 years old (median age = 2 years, minimum = 2, maximum = 7) by microscopy/rapid diagnostic test (RDT) from 57 DHSs conducted between November 2006 and December 2018 from 23 African countries. Data representing 11,349 infections across all ages (median age = 22 years, minimum = 0.5, maximum = 100) detected by molecular tools in 132,590 individuals in 43 studies published between April 2006 and May 2019 in 20 African, American, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries were obtained from the published literature. Extensive clustering was observed-overall, there was a 20.40 greater (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.35-20.45; P < 0.001) odds of patent infections (according to the DHS data) and 5.13 greater odds (95% CI 3.85-6.84; P < 0.001) of molecularly detected infections (from the published literature) detected within households in which a programmatically detectable infection resides. The strongest degree of clustering identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)/ loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was observed using the MTAT strategy (odds ratio [OR] = 6.79, 95% CI 4.42-10.43) but was not significantly different when compared to MSAT (OR = 5.2, 95% CI 3.22-8.37; P-difference = 0.883) and RACD (OR = 4.08, 95% CI 2.55-6.53; P-difference = 0.29). Across both datasets, clustering became more prominent when transmission was low. However, limitations to our analysis include not accounting for any malaria control interventions in place, malaria seasonality, or the likely heterogeneity of transmission within study sites. Clustering may thus have been underestimated. CONCLUSIONS: In areas where malaria transmission is peri-domestic, there are programmatic options for identifying households where residual infections are likely to be found. Combining these detection strategies with presumptively treating residents of index households over a sustained time period could contribute to malaria elimination efforts.

Ultra-sensitive RDT performance and antigen dynamics in a high-transmission Plasmodium falciparum setting in Mali.

BACKGROUND: The recent expansion of tools designed to accurately quantify malaria parasite-produced antigens has enabled us to evaluate the performance of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) as a function of the antigens they detect-typically histidine rich protein 2 (HRP2) or lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). METHODS: For this analysis, whole blood specimens from a longitudinal study in Bancoumana, Mali were used to evaluate the performance of the ultra-sensitive HRP2-based Alere™ Malaria Ag P.f RDT (uRDT). The samples were collected as part of a transmission-blocking vaccine trial in a high transmission region for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Furthermore, antigen dynamics after successful anti-malarial drug treatment were evaluated in these samples using the Q-Plex Human Malaria Array (4-Plex) to quantify antigen concentrations. RESULTS: The uRDT had a 50% probability of a positive result at 207 pg/mL HRP2 [95% credible interval (CrI) 160-268]. Individuals with symptomatic infection remained positive by uRDT for a median of 33 days [95% confidence interval (CI) 28-47] post anti-malarial drug treatment. Biphasic exponential decay models accurately captured the population level post-treatment dynamics of both HRP2 and Plasmodium LDH (pLDH), with the latter decaying more rapidly. Motivated by these differences in rates of decay, a novel algorithm that used HRP2:pLDH ratios to predict if an individual had active versus recently cleared P. falciparum infection was developed. The algorithm had 77.5% accuracy in correctly classifying antigen-positive individuals as those with and without active infection. CONCLUSIONS: These results characterize the performance of the ultra-sensitive RDT and demonstrate the potential for emerging antigen-quantifying technologies in the field of malaria diagnostics to be helpful tools in distinguishing between active versus recently cleared malaria infections.