Validation of a clinical breast cancer risk assessment tool combining a polygenic score for all ancestries with traditional risk factors.

PURPOSE: We previously described a combined risk score (CRS) that integrates a multiple-ancestry polygenic risk score (MA-PRS) with the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) model to assess breast cancer (BC) risk. Here, we present a longitudinal validation of CRS in a real-world cohort. METHODS: This study included 130,058 patients referred for hereditary cancer genetic testing and negative for germline pathogenic variants in BC-associated genes. Data were obtained by linking genetic test results to medical claims (median follow-up 12.1 months). CRS calibration was evaluated by the ratio of observed to expected BCs. RESULTS: Three hundred forty BCs were observed over 148,349 patient-years. CRS was well-calibrated and demonstrated superior calibration compared with TC in high-risk deciles. MA-PRS alone had greater discriminatory accuracy than TC, and CRS had approximately 2-fold greater discriminatory accuracy than MA-PRS or TC. Among those classified as high risk by TC, 32.6% were low risk by CRS, and of those classified as low risk by TC, 4.3% were high risk by CRS. In cases where CRS and TC classifications disagreed, CRS was more accurate in predicting incident BC. CONCLUSION: CRS was well-calibrated and significantly improved BC risk stratification. Short-term follow-up suggests that clinical implementation of CRS should improve outcomes for patients of all ancestries through personalized risk-based screening and prevention.

Specifications of the ACMG/AMP variant curation guidelines for the analysis of germline ATM sequence variants.

The ClinGen Hereditary Breast, Ovarian and Pancreatic Cancer (HBOP) Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) is composed of internationally recognized experts in clinical genetics, molecular biology and variant interpretation. This VCEP made specifications for ACMG/AMP guidelines for the ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved ClinGen protocol. These gene-specific rules for ATM were modified from the American College of Medical Genetics and Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) guidelines and were tested against 33 ATM variants of various types and classifications in a pilot curation phase. The pilot revealed a majority agreement between the HBOP VCEP classifications and the ClinVar-deposited classifications. Six pilot variants had conflicting interpretations in ClinVar and reevaluation with the VCEP's ATM-specific rules resulted in four that were classified as benign, one as likely pathogenic and one as a variant of uncertain significance (VUS) by the VCEP, improving the certainty of interpretations in the public domain. Overall, 28 the 33 pilot variants were not VUS leading to an 85% classification rate. The ClinGen-approved, modified rules demonstrated value for improved interpretation of variants in ATM.