Predicting successful intended vaginal delivery after previous caesarean section: external validation of two predictive models in a Dutch nationwide registration-based cohort with a high intended vaginal delivery rate.

OBJECTIVE: To externally validate two models from the USA (entry-to-care [ETC] and close-to-delivery [CTD]) that predict successful intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for the Dutch population. DESIGN: A nationwide registration-based cohort study. SETTING: Seventeen hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Seven hundred and sixty-three pregnant women, each with one previous caesarean section and a viable singleton cephalic pregnancy without a contraindication for an intended VBAC. METHODS: The ETC model comprises the variables maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, previous vaginal delivery, previous VBAC and previous nonprogressive labour. The CTD model replaces prepregnancy BMI with third-trimester BMI and adds estimated gestational age at delivery, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, cervical examination and induction of labour. We included consecutive medical records of eligible women who delivered in 2010. For validation, individual probabilities of women who had an intended VBAC were calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Discriminative performance was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and predictive performance was assessed with calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic. RESULTS: Five hundred and fifteen (67%) of the 763 women had an intended VBAC; 72% of these (371) had an actual VBAC. The AUCs of the ETC and CTD models were 68% (95% CI 63-72%) and 72% (95% CI 67-76%), respectively. The H-L statistic showed a P-value of 0.167 for the ETC model and P = 0.356 for the CTD model, indicating no lack of fit. CONCLUSION: External validation of two predictive models developed in the USA revealed an adequate performance within the Dutch population.

Vaginal birth after a caesarean section: the development of a Western European population-based prediction model for deliveries at term.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and internally validate a model that predicts the outcome of an intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for a Western European population that can be used to personalise counselling for deliveries at term. DESIGN: Registration-based retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Five university teaching hospitals, seven non-university teaching hospitals, and five non-university non-teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. POPULATION: A cohort of 515 women with a history of one caesarean section and a viable singleton pregnancy, without a contraindication for intended VBAC, who delivered at term. METHODS: Potential predictors for a vaginal delivery after caesarean section were chosen based on literature and expert opinions. We internally validated the prediction model using bootstrapping techniques. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Predictors for VBAC. For model validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative capacity and calibration-per-risk-quantile for accuracy were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 371 out of 515 women had a VBAC (72%). Variables included in the model were: estimated fetal weight greater than the 90(th) percentile in the third trimester; previous non-progressive labour; previous vaginal delivery; induction of labour; pre-pregnancy body mass index; and ethnicity. The AUC was 71% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 69-73%), indicating a good discriminative ability. The calibration plot shows that the predicted probabilities are well calibrated, especially from 65% up, which accounts for 77% of the total study population. CONCLUSION: We developed an appropriate Western European population-based prediction model that is aimed to personalise counselling for term deliveries.

Gene expression profiling in human endometrial cancer tissue samples: utility and diagnostic value.

OBJECTIVE: Recently, gene expression profiling techniques have been used on several human cancers to classify tumor subgroups with a specific biological behavior, which were previously undetected by the conventional histopathologic staging systems. In the current study, the clinical usefulness and prognostic value of gene expression profiling in human endometrial carcinomas were studied. METHODS: A macro cDNA array, containing cDNAs of 588 genes selected from different areas of cancer research, was used to generate gene expression profiles of tumor tissue samples. The gene expression profiles of 12 endometrial cancers, 3 benign (e.g. noncancer) endometrial tissue samples and 3 myometrial tissue samples, taken from human surgical specimen, were compared. RESULTS: The efficacy to generate a gene expression profile of these tissue samples was 77%. The RNA samples could be randomly taken from the tissue samples and were highly reproducible. Cluster analysis of gene expression profiles of the different samples showed that the benign endometrial and the myometrial samples clustered separately from the tumor samples, indicating that the gene expression profiles were tissue specific and not patient specific. Cluster analysis of the tumor samples revealed two distinct tumor clusters. Ranking of the tumors in the two clusters showed high similarity with the histopathologic classification [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) grading]. CONCLUSION: Classification of endometrial tumors on basis of their gene expression profiles showed similarity with the FIGO grading system.

Progestogenic effects of tibolone on human endometrial cancer cells.

Tibolone, a synthetic steroid acting in a tissue-specific manner and used in hormone replacement therapy, is converted into three active metabolites: a Delta(4) isomer (exerting progestogenic and androgenic effects) and two hydroxy metabolites, 3 alpha-hydroxytibolone (3 alpha-OH-tibolone) and 3beta-OH-tibolone (exerting estrogenic effects). In the present study an endometrial carcinoma cell line (Ishikawa PRAB-36) was used to investigate the progestogenic properties of tibolone and its metabolites. This cell line contains progesterone receptors A and B, but lacks estrogen and androgen receptors. When tibolone was added to the cells, complete conversion into the progestogenic/androgenic Delta(4) isomer was observed within 6 d. Furthermore, when cells were cultured with tibolone or when the Delta(4) isomer or the established progestagen medroxyprogesterone acetate was added to the medium, marked inhibition of growth was observed. Interestingly, 3 beta-OH-tibolone also induces some inhibition of growth. These growth inhibitions were not observed in progesterone receptor-negative parental Ishikawa cells, and progestagen-induced growth inhibition of PRAB-36 cells could readily be reversed using the antiprogestagen Org-31489. Upon measuring the expression of two progesterone-regulated genes (fibronectin and IGF-binding protein-3), tibolone, the Delta(4) isomer and medroxyprogesterone acetate showed similar gene expression regulation. These results indicate that tibolone, the Delta(4) metabolite, and to some extent 3 beta-OH-tibolone exert progestogenic effects. Tibolone and most likely 3 beta-OH-tibolone are converted into the Delta(4) metabolite.

Gene expression profiles of human endometrial cancer samples using a cDNA-expression array technique: assessment of an analysis method.

The recently developed cDNA expression array technique can be used to generate gene-expression fingerprints of tumour specimens. To gain insight into molecular mechanisms involved in the development and progression of cancer, this cDNA expression array technique could be a useful tool, however, no established methods for interpreting the results are yet available. We used the Atlas cancer cDNA expression array (Clontech, USA) for analysing total RNA isolated from four human endometrial carcinoma samples (two cell-lines and two tissue samples), one benign endometrial tissue sample and a human breast cancer cell-line, in order to develop a method for analysing the array data. The obtained gene-expression profiles were highly reproducible. XY-scatterplots and regression analysis of the logarithmic transformed data provided a practical method to analyse the data without the need of preceding normalization. Three genes (Decorin, TIMP3 and Cyclin D1) were identified to be differentially expressed between the benign endometrial tissue sample and the endometrial carcinoma samples (tissue and cell-lines). These three genes may potentially be involved in cancer progression. A higher degree of similarity in gene-expression profile was found between the endometrial samples (tissue and cell-lines) than between the endometrial samples and the breast cancer cell-line, which is indicative for an endometrial tissue-specific gene-expression profile.