High pathogenic avian influenza A(H5) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe-Why trends of virus evolution are more difficult to predict.

Since 2016, A(H5Nx) high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of clade 2.3.4.4b has become one of the most serious global threats not only to wild and domestic birds, but also to public health. In recent years, important changes in the ecology, epidemiology, and evolution of this virus have been reported, with an unprecedented global diffusion and variety of affected birds and mammalian species. After the two consecutive and devastating epidemic waves in Europe in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022, with the second one recognized as one of the largest epidemics recorded so far, this clade has begun to circulate endemically in European wild bird populations. This study used the complete genomes of 1,956 European HPAI A(H5Nx) viruses to investigate the virus evolution during this varying epidemiological outline. We investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of A(H5Nx) virus diffusion to/from and within Europe during the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 epidemic waves, providing evidence of ongoing changes in transmission dynamics and disease epidemiology. We demonstrated the high genetic diversity of the circulating viruses, which have undergone frequent reassortment events, providing for the first time a complete overview and a proposed nomenclature of the multiple genotypes circulating in Europe in 2020-2022. We described the emergence of a new genotype with gull adapted genes, which offered the virus the opportunity to occupy new ecological niches, driving the disease endemicity in the European wild bird population. The high propensity of the virus for reassortment, its jumps to a progressively wider number of host species, including mammals, and the rapid acquisition of adaptive mutations make the trend of virus evolution and spread difficult to predict in this unfailing evolving scenario.

Homo- and Heterosubtypic Immunity to Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Mitigates the Clinical Outcome of Infection with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4.b in Captive Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos).

In this study, we investigated the clinical response, viral shedding, transmissibility, pathologic lesions, and tropism of HPAIV Gs/Gd H5N8 subtype (clade 2.3.4.4b), following experimental infection of three groups of captive mallards (Anas platyrhynchos): (i) fully susceptible, (ii) pre-exposed to low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) H5N1 subtype, and (iii) pre-exposed to LPAIV H3N8 subtype. Infection of naïve mallards with HPAIV H5N8 resulted in ~60% mortality, neurological signs, abundant shedding, and transmission to contact ducks, who also became sick and died. High amounts of viral RNA were found in all collected organs, with the highest RNA load recorded in the brain. The IHC examinations performed on tissues collected at 4 and 14 days post-infection (dpi) revealed tropism to nervous tissue, myocardium, respiratory epithelium, and hepatic and pancreatic cells. The mallards pre-exposed to LPAIV H5N1 and challenged with HPAIV H5N8 were asymptomatic and showed a significant reduction of viral RNA shedding, yet still sufficient to cause infection (but no disease) in the contact ducks. The AIV antigen was not detected in organs at 4 and 14 dpi, and microscopic lesions were mild and scarce. Similarly, mallards previously inoculated with LPAIV H3N8 remained healthy after challenge with HPAIV H5N8, but viral RNA was detected in large quantities in swabs and organs, particularly in the early phase of infection. However, in contrast to mallards from group I, the IHC staining yielded negative results at the selected timepoints. The virus was transmitted to contact birds, which remained symptomless but demonstrated low levels of viral RNA shedding and mild- to moderate tissue damage despite negative IHC staining. The results indicate that naïve mallards are highly susceptible to HPAIV H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b and that homo- and heterosubtypic immunity to LPAIV can mitigate the clinical outcomes of infection.

Pathogenicity of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 subtype for herring gulls (Larus argentatus): impact of homo- and heterosubtypic immunity on the outcome of infection.

To improve understanding of the pathobiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) infections in wild birds, pathogenicity and transmissibility of HPAIV H5N8 subtype clade 2.3.4.4b was evaluated in ~ 8-week-old herring gulls (Larus argentatus) divided into 3 groups: naïve birds (group A), birds previously exposed to low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) H5N1 (group B) and LPAIV H13N6 (group C). The HPAIV H5N8 virus was highly virulent for naïve gulls, that showed early morbidity, high mortality, a broad spectrum of clinical signs, including violent neurological disorders, systemic distribution of the virus in organs accompanied by high level of shedding and transmission to contact birds. Pre-exposure to homologous and heterologous LPAIV subtypes conferred only partial protection: we observed increased survival rate (statistically significant only in group B), nervous signs, pantropic distribution of virus in organs, shedding (significantly reduced in gulls of group C in the early phase of disease and asymptomatic shedding in the late phase), transmission to contact gulls (more pronounced in group B) and near-complete seroconversion in survivors. Histopathological and immunohistochemical results indicate virus tropism for the neural, respiratory and myocardial tissues. In conclusion, we demonstrate that HPAIV H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b is highly virulent and lethal for fully susceptible herring gulls and that pre-exposure to homo- and heterosubtypic LPAIV only partially modulates the disease outcome.

Specific Monoclonal Antibodies Targeting Unique HA Epitopes Block H7N9 Influenza A Viral Replication.

The H7N9 subtype influenza A viruses pose a serious threat to public health, and there is still a lack of vaccines or drugs for humans against H7N9 influenza viruses. In this study, we screened two monoclonal antibodies (MAbs), 4H1E8 and 7H9A6, that specifically recognize the hemagglutinin (HA) protein of H7N9 influenza virus and display highly neutralizing activity against H7N9 virus. The epitopes recognized by two MAbs are nearly all conserved within all known H7 subtypes. Characteristic identification showed that two MAbs have high avidity for the HA protein but no hemagglutinin inhibition activity or antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity. Mechanistically, the 4H1E8 and 7H9A6 antibodies inhibit the pH-dependent conformational change of HA and block the HA-mediated membrane fusion. More importantly, 4H1E8 and 7H9A6 exhibit promising prophylactic and therapeutic effects against lethal challenge with H7N9 virus. Moreover, 4H1E8- and 7H9A6-treated mice displayed inhibition of pulmonary viral replication and reduced lung lesions after viral challenge. Together, these findings indicate that antibodies 4H1E8 and 7H9A6 recognize unique epitopes in the HA protein and possess the neutralizing activity and protective efficacy against the H7N9 influenza A viruses. IMPORTANCE In 2013, H7N9 influenza viruses appeared in China and other countries resulting in more than 1,500 individual infections or death. There are still limited studies on vaccines or drugs for humans against H7N9 influenza viruses. Alternative approaches against H7N9 virus infection need to be developed. Here, we identified two monoclonal antibodies (4H1E8 and 7H9A6) that possess neutralizing activity by blocking the pH-dependent HA-mediated membrane fusion. Additionally, the two monoclonal antibodies protect mice against the H7N9 virus challenge prophylactically or therapeutically. Therefore, our study demonstrates that 4H1E8 and 7H9A6 could be used for the prevention and treatment of the H7N9 influenza virus, and the conserved epitopes we identified may contribute to the development of a broad H7N9 vaccine and provide insights into unique antiviral approaches.

Has Epizootic Become Enzootic? Evidence for a Fundamental Change in the Infection Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Europe, 2021.

Phylogenetic evidence from the recent resurgence of high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b, observed in European wild birds and poultry since October 2021, suggests at least two different and distinct reservoirs. We propose contrasting hypotheses for this emergence: (i) resident viruses have been maintained, presumably in wild birds, in northern Europe throughout the summer of 2021 to cause some of the outbreaks that are part of the most recent autumn/winter 2021 epizootic, or (ii) further virus variants were reintroduced by migratory birds, and these two sources of reintroduction have driven the HPAI resurgence. Viruses from these two principal sources can be distinguished by their hemagglutinin genes, which segregate into two distinct sublineages (termed B1 and B2) within clade 2.3.4.4b, as well as their different internal gene compositions. The evidence of enzootic HPAI virus circulation during the summer of 2021 indicates a possible paradigm shift in the epidemiology of HPAI in Europe.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5Nx in Poland in 2020/2021: a Descriptive Epidemiological Study of a Large-scale Epidemic.

Introduction: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks caused by the Gs/Gd lineage of H5Nx viruses occur in Poland with increased frequency. The article provides an update on the HPAI situation in the 2020/2021 season and studies the possible factors that caused the exceptionally fast spread of the virus. Material and Methods: Samples from poultry and wild birds delivered for HPAI diagnosis were tested by real-time RT-PCR and a representative number of detected viruses were submitted for partial or full-genome characterisation. Information yielded by veterinary inspection was used for descriptive analysis of the epidemiological situation. Results: The scale of the epidemic in the 2020/2021 season was unprecedented in terms of duration (November 2020-August 2021), number of outbreaks in poultry (n = 357), wild bird events (n = 92) and total number of affected domestic birds (approximately ~14 million). The major drivers of the virus spread were the harsh winter conditions in February 2020 followed by the introduction of the virus to high-density poultry areas in March 2021. All tested viruses belonged to H5 clade 2.3.4.4b with significant intra-clade diversity and in some cases clearly distinguished clusters. Conclusion: The HPAI epidemic in 2020/2021 in Poland struck with unprecedented force. The conventional control measures may have limited effectiveness to break the transmission chain in areas with high concentrations of poultry.

Avian Bornaviruses in Wild Aquatic Birds of the Anseriformes Order in Poland.

Bornaviruses are a diverse family of viruses infecting various hosts, including birds. Aquatic bird bornavirus 1 (ABBV-1) and aquatic bird bornavirus 2 (ABBV-2) have been found in wild waterfowl but data on their prevalence are scarce. To gain knowledge on the occurrence of ABBVs in Poland, samples originating from dead birds of the Anseriformes order collected in 2016-2021 were tested with a real time RT-PCR method targeting the ABBVs genome. A total of 514 birds were examined, including 401 swans, 96 ducks and 17 geese. The presence of ABBV-1 RNA was detected in 52 swans (10.1% of all tested birds) from 40 different locations. No positive results were obtained for ducks and geese. Sequences of about 2300 bases were generated for 18 viruses and phylogenetic analysis was performed. A relatively low genetic diversity of the examined ABBV-1 strains was observed as all were gathered in a single cluster in the phylogenetic tree and the minimum nucleotide identity was 99.14%. The Polish strains were closely related to ABBV-1 identified previously in Denmark and Germany, but a limited number of sequences from Europe hinders the drawing of conclusions about interconnections between Polish and other European ABBVs. The results of the present study provide new insights into the distribution and genetic characteristics of ABBVs in wild birds in Europe.

The Impact of Selected Risk Factors on The Occurrence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial Poultry Flocks in Poland.

INTRODUCTION: Introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) into a country and its further spread may have a devastating impact on the poultry industry and lead to serious economic consequences. Various risk factors may increase the probability of HPAI outbreak occurrence but their relative influence is often difficult to determine. The study evaluates how the densities of selected poultry species and proximity to the areas inhabited by wild birds impacted HPAI outbreak occurrence during the recently reported epidemics in Poland. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The analysis was developed using these risk factors in the locations of affected and randomly chosen unaffected commercial farms. Generalised linear and non-linear models, specifically logistic regression, classification tree and random forest, were used to indicate the most relevant risk factors, to quantify their association with HPAI outbreak occurrence, and to develop a map depicting spatial risk distribution. RESULTS: The most important risk factors comprised the densities of turkeys, geese and ducks. The abundance of these species of poultry in an area increased the probability of HPAI occurrence, and their farming intensity in several areas of central, western, eastern and northern Poland put these areas at the highest risk. CONCLUSION: The results may improve the targeting of active surveillance, strengthen biosecurity in the areas at risk and contribute to early detection of HPAI in outbreak reoccurrences.

Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza H5 and H7 strains into Poland via legal import of live poultry.

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) caused by H5 and H7 viruses is considered a threatening disease for poultry production due to the possibility of prolonged undetected virus circulation in a poultry flock and its potential to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The occurrence of HPAI may have devastating impact on the poultry industry and has serious economic consequences. The possibility of LPAI virus (LPAIV) being introduced into Poland via import of live poultry from EU countries was considered. The main aim of the study was to quantitatively assess the probability of LPAIV H5 and H7 introduction into Poland (PLPAI) via this pathway, to evaluate the relative contribution of exporting countries and species of poultry to this probability and to present the spatial distribution of the introduction probability in Poland. To this end, a stochastic multilevel binomial risk model, taking into account uncertainty and variability of input parameter values, was developed. The results of this model indicate that the mean annual probability of LPAIV H5 or H7 introduction into Poland is 0.088 [95 % uncertainty interval: 0.0575, 0.128], which corresponds to, on average, one outbreak every 11 years. The countries contributing most to this probability are Germany, Czech Republic and Denmark. Importations of ducks, chickens and turkeys contribute most to PLPAI, whereas importations of geese and guinea fowl represent a minor risk. The probability of LPAIV introduction is not equally distributed across Poland with the majority of counties having a high probability of LPAIV introduction being located in the Western part of the country. The results of this study can be used to support decision makers on targeted prevention or risk-based surveillance strategies for LPAI.

Models To Assess the Risk of Introduction of Selected Animal Viral Diseases Through the Importation of Live Animals As a Key Part of Risk Analysis.

Introduction of an animal viral disease, especially a notifiable disease, into an importing country or region free from the disease may lead to serious epidemiological consequences and economic losses. Trade in live animals is historically considered one of the most important risk pathways. To estimate the magnitude of such risk, the likelihood of a virus' entry into a country and the consequences of this event should be jointly evaluated. Depending on data availability, the urgency of the problem and the detail level of the objectives, a risk assessment may be conducted in a qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative way. The purpose of this review was firstly to provide a brief description of each step of the risk analysis process, with particular emphasis on the risk assessment component, and subsequently to supply examples of different approaches to the assessment of the risk of the introduction of selected animal viral diseases. Based on the reviewed models, the overall likelihood of introduction of particular diseases was generally estimated as low. The output risk value was strongly dependent on the duration of the silent phase of the epidemic in the country of origin. Other parameters with some bearing upon the risk derived from the epidemiological situation in the country of origin and the biosecurity or mitigation measures implemented in the country of destination. The investigated models are universal tools for conducting assessment of the risk of introduction of various animal diseases to any country. Their application may lead to timely implementation of appropriate measures for the prevention of the spread of a disease to another country or region.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 in Poland in 2019-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Repeated incursions of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5 subtype of Gs/GD lineage pose a serious threat to poultry worldwide. We provide a detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal spread and genetic characteristics of HPAIV Gs/GD H5N8 from the 2019/20 epidemic in Poland. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Samples from poultry and free-living birds were tested by real-time RT-PCR. Whole genome sequences from 24 (out of 35) outbreaks were generated and genetic relatedness was established. The clinical status of birds and possible pathways of spread were analysed based on the information provided by veterinary inspections combined with the results of phylogenetic studies. RESULTS: Between 31 December 2019 and 31 March 2020, 35 outbreaks in commercial and backyard poultry holdings and 1 case in a wild bird were confirmed in nine provinces of Poland. Most of the outbreaks were detected in meat turkeys and ducks. All characterised viruses were closely related and belonged to a previously unrecognised genotype of HPAIV H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b. Wild birds and human activity were identified as the major modes of HPAIV spread. CONCLUSION: The unprecedentedly late introduction of the HPAI virus urges for re-evaluation of current risk assessments. Continuous vigilance, strengthening biosecurity and intensifying surveillance in wild birds are needed to better manage the risk of HPAI occurrence in the future.

Avian influenza overview - update on 19 November 2020, EU/EEA and the UK.

Since 16 October 2020, outbreaks ofhighly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruseshavebeen reported inseveral EU/EEAcountries -Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Swedenas well asin the United Kingdom.As of 19 November,12pm, 302 HPAI A(H5) detections have been reported, with the majority of the detections referring to wild birds (n=281), and a few related to outbreaks in poultry (n=18) and captive birds (n=3). Most of the detections in wild birds were in wild waterbirds,being barnacle goose the most affected species (n=110), followed by greylag goose (n=47), Eurasian wigeon (n=32),mallard (n=14), and common buzzard (n=13).ThreeHPAI virus subtypes were identified, A(H5N8), A(H5N5) and A(H5N1), with A(H5N8) being the most reported subtype (n=284). Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the viruses evolved from a single progenitor virus thatwent through multiple reassortment events. Based on the ongoing autumn migration of wild waterbirds to their wintering areas in Europe, there is a continued risk of further introduction of HPAI A(H5) viruses into Europe. Furthermore, given the expected movements of both migratory, and resident wild birds in Europe during winter, there is a high risk of further spread of HPAI A(H5) viruses within Europe. No genetic markers indicating adaptation to mammals have been identified in the viruses analysed so far,andno human infection due to avian influenza viruses detected in the recent outbreakshas been reported. For that reason,the risk to the general population remains very low.However,following the precautionary principle, people should avoid touching sick or dead birds unprotected to minimise any potential risk.

Animal Coronaviruses in the Light of COVID-19.

Coronaviruses are extremely susceptible to genetic changes due to the characteristic features of the genome structure, life cycle and environmental pressure. Their remarkable variability means that they can infect many different species of animals and cause different disease symptoms. Moreover, in some situations, coronaviruses might be transmitted across species. Although they are commonly found in farm, companion and wild animals, causing clinical and sometimes serious signs resulting in significant economic losses, not all of them have been classified by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) as hazardous and included on the list of notifiable diseases. Currently, only three diseases caused by coronaviruses are on the OIE list of notifiable terrestrial and aquatic animal diseases. However, none of these three entails any administrative measures. The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 infections that have caused the COVID-19 pandemic in humans has proved that the occurrence and variability of coronaviruses is highly underestimated in the animal reservoir and reminded us of the critical importance of the One Health approach. Therefore, domestic and wild animals should be intensively monitored, both to broaden our knowledge of the viruses circulating among them and to understand the mechanisms of the emergence of viruses of relevance to animal and human health.

Low pathogenic avian influenza virus isolates with different levels of defective genome segments vary in pathogenicity and transmission efficiency.

Defective interfering particles (DIPs) of influenza virus are generated through incorporation of highly truncated forms of genome segments, mostly those coding polymerase complex proteins (PB2, PB1, PA). Such particles are able to replicate only in the presence of a virus with the complete genome, thus DIPs may alter the infection outcome by suppressing production of standard virus particles, but also by stimulating the immune response. In the present study we compared the clinical outcome, mortality and transmission in chickens and turkeys infected with the same infectious doses of H7N7 low pathogenic avian influenza virus containing different levels of defective gene segments (95/95(DVG-high) and 95/95(DVG-low)). No clinical signs, mortality or transmission were noted in SPF chickens inoculated with neither virus stock. Turkeys infected with 95/95(DVG-high) showed only slight clinical signs with no mortality, and the virus was transmitted only to birds in direct contact. In contrast, more severe disease, mortality and transmission to direct and indirect contact birds was observed in turkeys infected with 95/95(DVG-low). Apathy, lower water and food intake, respiratory system disorders and a total mortality of 60% were noted. Shedding patterns in contact turkeys indicated more efficient within- and between-host spread of the virus than in 95/95(DVG-high) group. Sequencing of virus genomes showed no mutations that could account for the observed differences in pathogenicity. The results suggest that the abundance of DIPs in the inoculum was the factor responsible for the mild course of infection and disrupted virus transmission.

Sub-Saharan Africa and Eurasia Ancestry of Reassortant Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N8) Virus, Europe, December 2019.

We report detection of a highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) clade 2.3.4.4b virus in Europe. This virus was generated by reassortment between H5N8 subtype virus from sub-Saharan Africa and low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses from Eurasia.

Response to a DNA vaccine against the H5N1 virus depending on the chicken line and number of doses.

BACKGROUND: Avian influenza virus infections cause significant economic losses on poultry farms and pose the threat of a possible pandemic outbreak. Routine vaccination of poultry against avian influenza is not recommended in Europe, however it has been ordered in some other countries, and more countries are considering use of the avian influenza vaccine as a component of their control strategy. Although a variety of such vaccines have been tested, most research has concentrated on specific antibodies and challenge experiments. METHODS: We monitored the transcriptomic response to a DNA vaccine encoding hemagglutinin from the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus in the spleens of broiler and layer chickens. Moreover, in layer chickens the response to one and two doses of the vaccine was compared. RESULTS: All groups of birds immunized with two doses of the vaccine responded at the humoral level by producing specific anti-hemagglutinin antibodies. A response to the vaccine was also detected in the spleen transcriptomes. Differential expression of many genes encoding noncoding RNA and proteins functionally connected to the neuroendocrine-immune system was observed in different immunized groups. CONCLUSION: Broiler chickens showed a higher number and wider range of fold-changes in the transcriptional response than laying hens.

A Turkey-origin H9N2 Avian Influenza Virus Shows Low Pathogenicity but Different Within-Host Diversity in Experimentally Infected Turkeys, Quail and Ducks.

Avian influenza virus (AIV) is a highly diverse and widespread poultry pathogen. Itsevolution and adaptation may be affected by multiple host and ecological factors, which are stillpoorly understood. In the present study, a turkey-origin H9N2 AIV was used as a model toinvestigate the within-host diversity of the virus in turkeys, quail and ducks in conjunction with theclinical course, shedding and seroconversion. Ten birds were inoculated oculonasally with a doseof 106 EID50 of the virus and monitored for 14 days. Virus shedding, transmission andseroconversion were evaluated, and swabs collected at selected time-points were characterized indeep sequencing to assess virus diversity. In general, the virus showed low pathogenicity for theexamined bird species, but differences in shedding patterns, seroconversion and clinical outcomewere noted. The highest heterogeneity of the virus population as measured by the number of singlenucleotide polymorphisms and Shannon entropy was found in oropharyngeal swabs from quail,followed by turkeys and ducks. This suggests a strong bottleneck was imposed on the virus duringreplication in ducks, which can be explained by its poor adaptation and stronger selection pressurein waterfowl. The high within-host virus diversity in quail with high level of respiratory sheddingand asymptomatic course of infection may contribute to our understanding of the role of quail asan intermediate host for adaptation of AIV to other species of poultry. In contrast, low viruscomplexity was observed in cloacal swabs, mainly from turkeys, showing that the within-hostdiversity may vary between different replication sites. Consequences of these observations on thevirus evolution and adaptation require further investigation.

Emergence and expansion of novel pathogenic reassortant strains of infectious bursal disease virus causing acute outbreaks of the disease in Europe.

Infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) is the aetiological agent of a highly contagious chicken immunodeficiency disorder known as Gumboro disease, which cause severe economic loses to the poultry worldwide. The emergence of very virulent IBDV strains (vvIBDV) during the late 80s resulted in drastic changes to the epidemiology of IBDV with a dramatic increase in the mortality of the animals affected. Molecular studies determined that the emergence of the vvIBDV was a consequence of a genomic reorganization of IBDV known as reassortant event by which the virus combined two emergent genetic background vvIBDV for segment A and vvIBDV for segment B. In the current study, a retrospective analysis was conducted, and samples collected during acute outbreaks of Gumboro disease in Poland during 1992-2015 were submitted to sequencing and further molecular and phylogenetic analyses. The results obtained not only revealed a high genetic diversity for Polish IBDV strains but a new population of IBDV was identified. These novel reassortant strains with a unique genetic background contain the segment A from very virulent strains and segment B from an unidentified source, phylogenetically segregated and classified as 'transitional lineage'. The results obtained also showed the presence of this new lineage in Finland, evidencing the expansion of this new genomic reorganized viral strain in Europe representing an additional threat to the global situation of IBDV.

Identification of Areas at Increased Risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Occurrence in Commercial Poultry in Poland.

The objective of the study was to identify the areas at increased risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurrence in commercial poultry in Poland. To identify the risk factors related to the occurrence of HPAI outbreaks, the opinions of Polish experts were combined with literature-driven knowledge. The relative impact of each risk factor was determined using a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The applied model suggests that the greatest risk of HPAI occurrence is concentrated in several counties in the eastern, western, and central parts of the country. The most influential risk actors responsible for HPAI occurrence in Poland included waterfowl density and proximity to waterbodies. The model had a high predictive value (area under the curve = 0.78). The developed spatial risk assessment of HPAI occurrence provides a valuable source of information for risk managers and can contribute to early detection of potential outbreaks of HPAI in poultry.

Nota de investigación- Identificación de áreas con mayor riesgo de aparición de influenza aviar altamente patógena en aves comerciales en Polonia El objetivo del estudio fue identificar las áreas con mayor riesgo para la aparición de influenza aviar altamente patógena en la avicultura comercial de Polonia. Para identificar los factores de riesgo relacionados con la aparición de brotes de influenza aviar altamente patógena, las opiniones de los expertos polacos se analizaron en conjunto con el conocimiento derivado de la literatura sobre este tema. El impacto relativo de cada factor de riesgo se determinó utilizando un enfoque de análisis de decisión con criterios múltiples. El modelo aplicado sugiere que el mayor riesgo para la presentación de influenza aviar altamente patógena se concentra en varios condados del este, oeste y centro del país. Los factores de riesgo responsables para la presentación de influenza aviar altamente patógena en Polonia que mostraron mayor influencia incluyeron la densidad de aves acuáticas y la proximidad a cuerpos de agua. El modelo mostró un alto valor predictivo (área bajo la curva = 0.78). La evaluación de riesgo espacial desarrollada para la presentación de la influenza aviar altamente patógena proporciona una valiosa fuente de información para administradores de riesgos y puede contribuir a la detección temprana de brotes potenciales de influenza aviar altamente patógena en avicultura.

Estimation of the number of exposed people during highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in EU/EEA countries, October 2016-September 2018.

We estimated that more than 11,000 people were exposed to highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in EU/EEA countries over the outbreak period October 2016-September 2018 by cross-linking data submitted by Member States to European Food Safety Authority and EMPRES-i. A stronger framework for collecting human exposure data is required.