A novel approach to quantify metrics of upwelling intensity, frequency, and duration.

The importance of coastal upwelling systems is widely recognized. However, several aspects of the current and future behaviors of these systems remain uncertain. Fluctuations in temperature because of anthropogenic climate change are hypothesized to affect upwelling-favorable winds and coastal upwelling is expected to intensify across all Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. To better understand how upwelling may change in the future, it is necessary to develop a more rigorous method of quantifying this phenomenon. In this paper, we use SST data and wind data in a novel method of detecting upwelling signals and quantifying metrics of upwelling intensity, duration, and frequency at four sites within the Benguela Upwelling System. We found that indicators of upwelling are uniformly detected across five SST products for each of the four sites and that the duration of those signals is longer in SST products with higher spatial resolutions. Moreover, the high-resolution SST products are significantly more likely to display upwelling signals at 25 km away from the coast when signals were also detected at the coast. Our findings promote the viability of using SST and wind time series data to detect upwelling signals within coastal upwelling systems. We highlight the importance of high-resolution data products to improve the reliability of such estimates. This study represents an important step towards the development of an objective method for describing the behavior of coastal upwelling systems.

Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer, and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease spread. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and one-quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e., using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the 'Global South' have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.

Plastic pollution in five urban estuaries of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Monitoring plastic concentrations in estuaries is vital in assessing the magnitude of terrestrial inputs to oceanic environments. Data on plastics ≤ 5 mm in estuaries are scant. This study determined microplastic levels within five estuaries along the Durban coastline and on intervening beaches. Plastics were isolated from estuarine sediment, beach sediment and the surface water of each estuary and characterised. Sediment at the Bayhead area of Durban harbour had the highest average plastic concentrations (745.4 ± 129.7 particles per 500 ml) and an attenuating concentration trend away from the city centre was found. Prevailing south to north longshore drift was hypothesised to result in plastic accumulation on the northern shores of beaches with estuarine effluents, however, this was not found. Fragments composed the largest percent of plastics (59%) found in Bayhead, whereas fibres dominated other estuaries with proportions ranging from 38% of total plastics in the uMgeni estuary to 66% in the Mdloti.

A coastal seawater temperature dataset for biogeographical studies: large biases between in situ and remotely-sensed data sets around the Coast of South Africa.

Gridded SST products developed particularly for offshore regions are increasingly being applied close to the coast for biogeographical applications. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the dangers of doing so through a comparison of reprocessed MODIS Terra and Pathfinder v5.2 SSTs, both at 4 km resolution, with instrumental in situ temperatures taken within 400 m from the coast. We report large biases of up to +6°C in places between satellite-derived and in situ climatological temperatures for 87 sites spanning the entire ca. 2 700 km of the South African coastline. Although biases are predominantly warm (i.e. the satellite SSTs being higher), smaller or even cold biases also appear in places, especially along the southern and western coasts of the country. We also demonstrate the presence of gradients in temperature biases along shore-normal transects - generally SSTs extracted close to the shore demonstrate a smaller bias with respect to the in situ temperatures. Contributing towards the magnitude of the biases are factors such as SST data source, proximity to the shore, the presence/absence of upwelling cells or coastal embayments. Despite the generally large biases, from a biogeographical perspective, species distribution retains a correlative relationship with underlying spatial patterns in SST, but in order to arrive at a causal understanding of the determinants of biogeographical patterns we suggest that in shallow, inshore marine habitats, temperature is best measured directly.

Complex, dynamic combination of physical, chemical and nutritional variables controls spatio-temporal variation of sandy beach community structure.

Sandy beach ecological theory states that physical features of the beach control macrobenthic community structure on all but the most dissipative beaches. However, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the relative importance of physical, chemical and biological factors as potential explanatory variables for meso-scale spatio-temporal patterns of intertidal community structure in these systems. Here, we investigate macroinfaunal community structure of a micro-tidal sandy beach that is located on an oligotrophic subtropical coast and is influenced by seasonal estuarine input. We repeatedly sampled biological and environmental variables at a series of beach transects arranged at increasing distances from the estuary mouth. Sampling took place over a period of five months, corresponding with the transition between the dry and wet season. This allowed assessment of biological-physical relationships across chemical and nutritional gradients associated with a range of estuarine inputs. Physical, chemical, and biological response variables, as well as measures of community structure, showed significant spatio-temporal patterns. In general, bivariate relationships between biological and environmental variables were rare and weak. However, multivariate correlation approaches identified a variety of environmental variables (i.e., sampling session, the C∶N ratio of particulate organic matter, dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations, various size fractions of photopigment concentrations, salinity and, to a lesser extent, beach width and sediment kurtosis) that either alone or combined provided significant explanatory power for spatio-temporal patterns of macroinfaunal community structure. Overall, these results showed that the macrobenthic community on Mtunzini Beach was not structured primarily by physical factors, but instead by a complex and dynamic blend of nutritional, chemical and physical drivers. This emphasises the need to recognise ocean-exposed sandy beaches as functional ecosystems in their own right.

The effects of preservation methods, dyes and acidification on the isotopic values (δ15N and δ13C) of two zooplankton species from the KwaZulu-Natal Bight, South Africa.

Stable isotope measurements are an important tool for ecosystem trophic linkage studies. Ideally, fresh samples should be used for isotopic analysis, but in many cases organisms must be preserved and analysed later. In some cases dyes must be used to help distinguish organisms from detritus. Since preservatives and dyes are carbon-based, their addition could influence isotopic readings. This study aims to improve understanding of the effects of sample storage method, dye addition and acidification on the δ(15)N and δ(13)C values of zooplankton (Euphasia frigida and Undinula vulgaris). Zooplankton was collected and preserved by freezing, or by the addition of 5% formalin, 70% ethanol, or 5% formalin with added Phloxine B or Rose Bengal, and stored for 1 month before processing. Samples in 5% formalin and 70% ethanol were also kept and processed after 3 and 9 months to study changes over time. Formalin caused the largest enrichment for δ(13)C and a slight enrichment for δ(15)N, while ethanol produced a slight depletion for δ(13)C, and different effects on δ(15)N depending on the species. In formalin, dyes depleted the δ(13)C values, but had variable effects on δ(15)N, relative to formalin alone. Acidification had no significant effect on δ(15)N or δ(13)C for either species. Long-term storage showed that the effects of the preservatives were species-dependent. Although the effects on δ(15)N varied, a relative enrichment in (13)C of samples occurred with time. This can have important consequences for the understanding of the organic flow within a food web and for trophic studies. .