Association of age at antiretroviral therapy initiation with CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery among virally suppressed people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of age at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation with CD4 +  : CD8 + T-cell ratio in virally suppressed people with HIV on long-term ART, and to characterize potential CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery in this population by age. DESIGN: A longitudinal study of people attending an HIV clinic at the Royal Free Hospital NHS Trust, London, who initiated ART between 2001 and 2015, and achieved and maintained HIV-1 viral suppression (viral load <1,000 copies/ml). The association of age group at ART initiation with CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio at 5 and 10 years was assessed. METHODS: Multivariable linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between age at ART initiation and log CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio, adjusting for demographic factors (gender/HIV transmission route, ethnicity), baseline CD4 + count and calendar year. RESULTS: The sample included 1859 people aged 20-78 (75% men, 56% white ethnicity). Overall, median CD4 +  : CD8 + T-cell ratio increased from 0.24 at baseline to 0.77 at year 5 and 0.88 at year 10. Ratios increased among all age groups in unadjusted and adjusted models but increased less among older ages (baseline ages 60-69 and 70-79). Median ratios at year 5 were 0.85, 0.80, 0.72, 0.76, 0.6, and 0.44, respectively, among people aged 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and 70-79 years at baseline. CONCLUSION: In a virally suppressed London population, age had a substantial impact on CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery, especially for those starting ART after age 60 years. Results may indicate the level of CD4 +  : CD8 + ratio recovery possible in an HIV-positive, virally suppressed, aging population.

All-cause hospitalisation among people living with HIV according to gender, mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and geographical origin in Europe and North America: findings from the ART-CC cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Understanding demographic disparities in hospitalisation is crucial for the identification of vulnerable populations, interventions, and resource planning. METHODS: Data were from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) on people living with HIV in Europe and North America, followed up between January, 2007 and December, 2020. We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalisation according to gender and mode of HIV acquisition, ethnicity, and combined geographical origin and ethnicity, in people living with HIV on modern combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Analyses were performed separately for European and North American cohorts. Hospitalisation rates were assessed using negative binomial multilevel regression, adjusted for age, time since cART intitiaion, and calendar year. FINDINGS: Among 23 594 people living with HIV in Europe and 9612 in North America, hospitalisation rates per 100 person-years were 16·2 (95% CI 16·0-16·4) and 13·1 (12·8-13·5). Compared with gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men, rates were higher for heterosexual men and women, and much higher for men and women who acquired HIV through injection drug use (adjusted incidence rate ratios ranged from 1·2 to 2·5 in Europe and from 1·2 to 3·3 in North America). In both regions, individuals with geographical origin other than the region of study generally had lower hospitalisation rates compared with those with geographical origin of the study country. In North America, Indigenous people and Black or African American individuals had higher rates than White individuals (adjusted incidence rate ratios 1·9 and 1·2), whereas Asian and Hispanic people living with HIV had somewhat lower rates. In Europe there was a lower rate in Asian individuals compared with White individuals. INTERPRETATION: Substantial disparities exist in all-cause hospitalisation between demographic groups of people living with HIV in the current cART era in high-income settings, highlighting the need for targeted support. FUNDING: Royal Free Charity and the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

Causes of hospitalisation among a cohort of people with HIV from a London centre followed from 2011 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: We describe the spectrum of ICD-10 classified causes for hospitalisations occurring between 2011 and 2018 in a cohort of people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: This sub-study includes 798 PLHIV participating in the Antiretroviral, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) questionnaire study who were recruited from a large London centre. A medical record review identified the occurrence and causes of hospitalisation from the date of questionnaire completion (February-December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Up to five causes were classified by an HIV clinician using the ICD-10 system. RESULTS: There were 274 hospitalisations in 153 people (rate = 5.8/100 person-years; 95% CI: 5.1, 6.5). Causes were wide-ranging; the most common were circulatory (16.8%), digestive (13.1%), respiratory (11.7%), infectious diseases (11.0%), injury/poisoning (10.6%), genitourinary diseases (9.9%) and neoplasms (9.1%). A tenth (27/274) of hospitalisations were related to at least one AIDS-defining illness. Median duration of hospitalisation was 5 days (IQR 2-9). At the time of hospitalisation, median CD4 count was high (510 cells/µl; IQR: 315-739), while median CD4 nadir was relatively low (113 cells/µl; IQR: 40-239). At admission, half of individuals (51%) had a previous AIDS-defining illness and 21% had viral load > 50 copies/ml. Individuals admitted for infectious diseases were particularly likely to have unfavourable HIV-related clinical characteristics (low CD4, viral non-suppression, not on antiretroviral therapy (ART), previous AIDS). CONCLUSIONS: In the modern combination antiretroviral therapy era, the spectrum of causes of hospitalisation in PLHIV in the UK is wide-ranging, highlighting the importance of holistic care for PLHIV, including prevention, early detection and treatment of comorbidities.

Prospective association of social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors with subsequent hospitalisation over 6-7 year follow up in people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Predictors of hospitalisation in people with HIV (PLHIV) in the contemporary treatment era are not well understood. METHODS: This ASTRA sub-study used clinic data linkage and record review to determine occurrence of hospitalisations among 798 PLHIV from baseline questionnaire (February to December 2011) until 1 June 2018. Associations of baseline social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle, mental health, demographic and clinical factors with repeated all-cause hospitalisation from longitudinal data were investigated using Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Associations were also assessed in 461 individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load ≤50 copies/ml and CD4 count ≥500 cells/ µl. FINDINGS: Rate of hospitalisation was 5.8/100 person-years (95% CI: 5.1-6.5). Adjusted for age, demographic group and time with diagnosed HIV, the following social circumstance, socioeconomic, lifestyle and mental health factors predicted hospitalisation: no stable partner (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.59; 95% CI=1.16-2.20 vs living with partner); having children (aHR=1.50; 1.08-2.10); non-employment (aHR=1.56; 1.07-2.27 for unemployment; aHR=2.39; 1.70-3.37 for sick/disabled vs employed); rented housing (aHR=1.72; 1.26-2.37 vs homeowner); not enough money for basic needs (aHR=1.82; 1.19-2.78 vs enough); current smoking (aHR=1.39; 1.02-1.91 vs never); recent injection-drug use (aHR=2.11; 1.30-3.43); anxiety symptoms (aHRs=1.39; 1.01-1.91, 2.06; 1.43-2.95 for mild and moderate vs none/minimal); depressive symptoms (aHRs=1.67; 1.17-2.38, 1.91; 1.30-2.78 for moderate and severe vs none/minimal); treated/untreated depression (aHRs=1.65; 1.03-2.64 for treated depression only, 1.87; 1.39-2.52 for depressive symptoms only; 1.53; 1.05-2.24; for treated depression and depressive symptoms, versus neither). Associations were broadly similar in those with controlled HIV and high CD4. INTERPRETATION: Social circumstance, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse lifestyle factors and poorer mental health are strong predictors of hospitalisation in PLHIV, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and care. FUNDING: British HIV Association (BHIVA) Research Award (2017); SMR funded by a PhD fellowship from the Royal Free Charity.

All-cause hospitalization according to demographic group in people living with HIV in the current antiretroviral therapy era.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated differences in all-cause hospitalization between key demographic groups among people with HIV in the UK in the current antiretroviral therapy (ART) era. DESIGN/METHODS: We used data from the Royal Free HIV Cohort study between 2007 and 2018. Individuals were classified into five groups: MSM, Black African men who have sex with women (MSW), MSW of other ethnicity, Black African women and women of other ethnicity. We studied hospitalizations during the first year after HIV diagnosis (Analysis-A) separately from those more than one year after diagnosis (Analysis-B). In Analysis-A, time to first hospitalization was assessed using Cox regression adjusted for age and diagnosis date. In Analysis-B, subsequent hospitalization rate was assessed using Poisson regression, accounting for repeated hospitalization within individuals, adjusted for age, calendar year, time since diagnosis. RESULTS: The hospitalization rate was 30.7/100 person-years in the first year after diagnosis and 2.7/100 person-years subsequently; 52% and 13% hospitalizations, respectively, were AIDS-related. Compared with MSM, MSW and women were at much higher risk of hospitalization during the first year [aHR (95% confidence interval, 95% CI): 2.7 (1.7-4.3), 3.0 (2.0-4.4), 2.0 (1.3-2.9), 3.0 (2.0-4.5) for Black African MSW; other ethnicity MSW; Black African women; other ethnicity women respectively, Analysis-A] and remained at increased risk subsequently [corresponding aIRR (95% CI): 1.7 (1.2-2.4), 2.1 (1.5-2.8), 1.5 (1.1-1.9), 1.7 (1.2-2.3), Analysis-B]. CONCLUSION: In this setting with universal healthcare, substantial variation exists in hospitalization risk across demographic groups, both in early and subsequent periods after HIV diagnosis, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

The impact of HIV infection on tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: a national retrospective study using molecular epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: HIV is known to increase the likelihood of reactivation of latent tuberculosis to active TB disease; however, its impact on tuberculosis infectiousness and consequent transmission is unclear, particularly in low-incidence settings. METHODS: National surveillance data from England, Wales and Northern Ireland on tuberculosis cases in adults from 2010 to 2014, strain typed using 24-locus mycobacterial-interspersed-repetitive-units-variable-number-tandem-repeats was used retrospectively to identify clusters of tuberculosis cases, subdivided into 'first' and 'subsequent' cases. Firstly, we used zero-inflated Poisson regression models to examine the association between HIV status and the number of subsequent clustered cases (a surrogate for tuberculosis infectiousness) in a strain type cluster. Secondly, we used logistic regression to examine the association between HIV status and the likelihood of being a subsequent case in a cluster (a surrogate for recent acquisition of tuberculosis infection) compared to the first case or a non-clustered case (a surrogate for reactivation of latent infection). RESULTS: We included 18,864 strain-typed cases, 2238 were the first cases of clusters and 8471 were subsequent cases. Seven hundred and fifty-nine (4%) were HIV-positive. Outcome 1: HIV-positive pulmonary tuberculosis cases who were the first in a cluster had fewer subsequent cases associated with them (mean 0.6, multivariable incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.75 [0.65-0.86]) than those HIV-negative (mean 1.1). Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) cases with HIV were less likely to be the first case in a cluster compared to HIV-negative EPTB cases. EPTB cases who were the first case had a higher mean number of subsequent cases (mean 2.5, IRR (3.62 [3.12-4.19]) than those HIV-negative (mean 0.6). Outcome 2: tuberculosis cases with HIV co-infection were less likely to be a subsequent case in a cluster (odds ratio 0.82 [0.69-0.98]), compared to being the first or a non-clustered case. CONCLUSIONS: Outcome 1: pulmonary tuberculosis-HIV patients were less infectious than those without HIV. EPTB patients with HIV who were the first case in a cluster had a higher number of subsequent cases and thus may be markers of other undetected cases, discoverable by contact investigations. Outcome 2: tuberculosis in HIV-positive individuals was more likely due to reactivation than recent infection, compared to those who were HIV-negative.

Trends in, and factors associated with, HIV infection amongst tuberculosis patients in the era of anti-retroviral therapy: a retrospective study in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: HIV increases the progression of latent tuberculosis (TB) infection to active disease and contributed to increased TB in the UK until 2004. We describe temporal trends in HIV infection amongst patients with TB and identify factors associated with HIV infection. METHODS: We used national surveillance data of all TB cases reported in England, Wales and Northern Ireland from 2000 to 2014 and determined HIV status through record linkage to national HIV surveillance. We used logistic regression to identify associations between HIV and demographic, clinical and social factors. RESULTS: There were 106,829 cases of TB in adults (≥ 15 years) reported from 2000 to 2014. The number and proportion of TB patients infected with HIV decreased from 543/6782 (8.0%) in 2004 to 205/6461 (3.2%) in 2014. The proportion of patients diagnosed with HIV > 91 days prior to their TB diagnosis increased from 33.5% in 2000 to 60.2% in 2013. HIV infection was highest in people of black African ethnicity from countries with high HIV prevalence (32.3%), patients who misused drugs (8.1%) and patients with miliary or meningeal TB (17.2%). CONCLUSIONS: There has been an overall decrease in TB-HIV co-infection and a decline in the proportion of patients diagnosed simultaneously with both infections. However, high rates of HIV remain in some sub-populations of patients with TB, particularly black Africans born in countries with high HIV prevalence and people with a history of drug misuse. Whilst the current policy of testing all patients diagnosed with TB for HIV infection is important in ensuring appropriate management of TB patients, many of these TB cases would be preventable if HIV could be diagnosed before TB develops. Improving screening for both latent TB and HIV and ensuring early treatment of HIV in these populations could help prevent these TB cases. British HIV Association guidelines on latent TB testing for people with HIV from sub-Saharan Africa remain relevant, and latent TB screening for people with HIV with a history of drug misuse, homelessness or imprisonment should also be considered.

Injecting drug use predicts active tuberculosis in a national cohort of people living with HIV.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis (TB) is common in people living with HIV, leading to worse clinical outcomes including increased mortality. We investigated risk factors for developing TB following HIV diagnosis. DESIGN: Adults aged at least 15 years first presenting to health services for HIV care in England, Wales or Northern Ireland from 2000 to 2014 were identified from national HIV surveillance data and linked to TB surveillance data. METHODS: We calculated incidence rates for TB occurring more than 91 days after HIV diagnosis and investigated risk factors using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: A total of 95 003 adults diagnosed with HIV were followed for 635 591 person-years; overall incidence of TB was 344 per 100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval 330-359). TB incidence was high for people who acquired HIV through injecting drugs [PWID; men 876 (696-1104), women 605 (365-945)] and black Africans born in high TB incidence countries [644 (612-677)]. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for TB amongst PWID was 4.79 (3.35-6.85) for men and 6.18 (3.49-10.93) for women, compared with MSM. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for TB in black Africans from high-TB countries was 4.27 (3.42-5.33), compared with white UK-born individuals. Lower time-updated CD4 cell count was associated with increased rates of TB. CONCLUSION: PWID had the greatest risk of TB; incidence rates were comparable with those in black Africans from high TB incidence countries. Most TB cases in PWID were UK-born, and likely acquired TB through transmission within the United Kingdom. Earlier HIV diagnosis and quicker initiation of antiretroviral therapy should reduce TB incidence in these populations.

Early virological response to HIV treatment: can we predict who is likely to experience subsequent treatment failure? Results from an observational cohort study, London, UK.

INTRODUCTION: For people living with HIV, the first antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimen offers the best chance for a good virological response. Early identification of those unlikely to respond to first-line ART could enable timely intervention and increase chances of a good initial treatment response. In this study we assess the extent to which the HIV RNA viral load (VL) at 1 and 3 months is predictive of first-line treatment outcome at 6 months. Methods All previously ART-naive individuals starting ART at two London centres since 2000 with baseline (-180 to 3 days) VL >500 c/mL had a VL measurement between 6 and 12 months after starting ART, and at least one at month 1 (4-60 days) or month 3 (61-120 days) were included. Lack of treatment response was defined as (i) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or (ii) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or simultaneous switch in drugs from at least two different drug classes before 6 months. The association with VL measurements at 1 and 3 months post-ART; change from pre-ART in these values; and CD4 count measurements at 1 and 3 months were assessed using logistic regression models. The relative fit of the models was compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). RESULTS: A total of 198 out of 3258 individuals (6%) experienced lack of treatment response at 6 months (definition i), increasing to 511 (16%) for definition (ii). Those with a 1-month (day 4-60 window) VL of <1000, 1000-9999, 10,000-99,999 and >100,000 copies/ml had a 4%, 8%, 23% and 24% chance, respectively, of subsequently experiencing treatment non-response at 6 months (definition (i)). When considering the 3-month (day 61-120 window) VL, the chances of subsequently experiencing treatment non-response were, respectively, 3%, 25%, 67% and 75%. Results were similar for definition (ii). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst 3-month VL provides good discrimination between low and high risk of treatment failure, 1-month VL does not. Presence of a VL >10,000 copies/ml after 3 months of ART is a cutoff above which individuals are at a sufficiently higher risk of non-response that they may be considered for intervention.

Choice of first-line antiretroviral therapy regimen and treatment outcomes for HIV in a middle income compared to a high income country: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The range of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimens available in many middle-income countries differs from those suggested in international HIV treatment guidelines. We compared first-line cART regimens, timing of initiation and treatment outcomes in a middle income setting (HIV Centre, Belgrade, Serbia - HCB) with a high-income country (Royal Free London Hospital, UK - RFH). METHODS: All antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive individuals from HCB and RFH starting cART between 2003 and 2012 were included. 12-month viral load and CD4 count responses were compared, considering the first available measurement 12-24 months post-cART. The percentage that had made an antiretroviral switch for any reason, or for toxicity and the percentage that had died by 36 months (the latest time at which sufficient numbers remained under follow-up) were investigated using standard survival methods. RESULTS: 361/597 (61 %) of individuals initiating cART at HCB had a prior AIDS diagnosis, compared to 337/1763 (19 %) at RFH. Median pre-ART CD4 counts were 177 and 238 cells/mm(3) respectively (p < 0.0001). The most frequently prescribed antiretrovirals were zidovudine with lamivudine (149; 25 %) and efavirenz [329, 55 %] at HCB and emtricitabine with tenofovir (899; 51 %) and efavirenz [681, 39 %] at RFH. At HCB, a median of 2 CD4 count measurements in the first year of cART were taken, compared to 5 at RFH (p < 0.0001). Median (IQR) CD4 cell increase after 12 months was +211 (+86, +359) and +212 (+105, +318) respectively. 287 (48 %) individuals from HCB and 1452 (82 %) from RFH had an available viral load measurement, of which 271 (94 %) and 1280 (88 %) were <400 copies/mL (p < 0.0001). After 36 months, comparable percentages had made at least one antiretroviral switch (77 % HCB vs. 78 % RFH; p = 0.23). However, switches for toxicity/patient choice were more common at RFH. After 12 and 36 months of cART 3 % and 8 % of individuals died at HCB, versus 2 % and 4 % at RFH (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: In middle-income countries, cART is usually started at an advanced stage of HIV disease, resulting in higher mortality rates than in high income countries, supporting improved testing campaigns for early detection of HIV infection and early introduction of newer cART regimens.

Socioeconomic status and response to antiretroviral therapy in high-income countries: a literature review.

It has been shown that socioeconomic factors are associated with the prognosis of several chronic diseases; however, there is no recent systematic review of their effect on HIV treatment outcomes. We aimed to review the evidence regarding the existence of an association of socioeconomic status with virological and immunological response to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We systematically searched the current literature using the database PubMed. We identified and summarized original research studies in high-income countries that assessed the association between socioeconomic factors (education, employment, income/financial status, housing, health insurance, and neighbourhood-level socioeconomic factors) and virological response, immunological response, and ART nonadherence among people with HIV-prescribed ART. A total of 48 studies met the inclusion criteria (26 from the United States, six Canadian, 13 European, and one Australian), of which 14, six, and 35 analysed virological, immunological, and ART nonadherence outcomes, respectively. Ten (71%), four (67%), and 23 (66%) of these studies found a significant association between lower socioeconomic status and poorer response, and none found a significant association with improved response. Several studies showed that adjustment for nonadherence attenuated the association between socioeconomic status and ART response. Our review provides strong support that socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with poorer response to ART. However, most studies have been conducted in settings such as the United States without universal free healthcare access. Further study in settings with free access to ART could help assess the impact of socioeconomic status on ART outcomes and the mechanisms by which it operates.

Socioeconomic status and treatment outcomes for individuals with HIV on antiretroviral treatment in the UK: cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the effect of socioeconomic status on HIV treatment outcomes in settings with universal access to health care. Here we aimed to investigate the association of socioeconomic factors with antiretroviral therapy (ART) non-adherence, virological non-suppression, and virological rebound, in HIV-positive people on ART in the UK. METHODS: We used data from the Antiretrovirals, Sexual Transmission Risk and Attitudes (ASTRA) questionnaire study, which recruited participants aged 18 years or older with HIV from eight HIV outpatient clinics in the UK between Feb 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2012. Participants self-completed a confidential questionnaire on sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle issues. In participants on ART, we assessed associations of financial hardship, employment, housing, and education with: self-reported ART non-adherence at the time of the questionnaire; virological non-suppression (viral load >50 copies per mL) at the time of questionnaire in those who started ART at least 6 months ago (cross-sectional analysis); and subsequent virological rebound (viral load >200 copies per mL) in those with initial viral load of 50 copies per mL or lower (longitudinal analysis). FINDINGS: Of the 3258 people who completed the questionnaire, 2771 (85%) reported being on ART at the time of the questionnaire, and 2704 with complete data were included. 873 (32%) of 2704 participants reported non-adherence to ART and 219 (9%) of 2405 had virological non-suppression in cross-sectional analysis. Each of the four measures of lower socioeconomic status was strongly associated with non-adherence to ART, and with virological non-suppression (prevalence ratios [PR] adjusted for gender/sexual orientation, age, and ethnic origin: greatest financial hardship vs none 2·4, 95% CI 1·6-3·4; non-employment 2·0, 1·5-2·6; unstable housing vs homeowner 3·0, 1·9-4·6; non-university education 1·6, 1·2-2·2). 139 (8%) of 1740 individuals had subsequent virological rebound (rate=3·6/100 person-years). Low socioeconomic status was predictive of longitudinal rebound risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] for greatest financial hardship vs none 2·3, 95% CI 1·4-3·9; non-employment 3·0, 2·1-4·2; unstable housing vs homeowner 3·3, 1·8-6·1; non-university education 1·6, 1·1-2·3). INTERPRETATION: Socioeconomic disadvantage was strongly associated with poorer HIV treatment outcomes in this setting with universal health care. Adherence interventions and increased social support for those most at risk should be considered. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

HIV co-receptor tropism prediction remains stable over time in treatment-naïve patients.

HIV co-receptor tropism determination is essential before prescribing the CCR5 antagonist maraviroc. British HIV Association guidelines suggest tropism testing may remain valid for only 90 days in antiretroviral-naïve patients. We aimed to determine the accuracy of this figure. Tropism was assessed in 26 antiretroviral-naïve patients with ongoing viral replication, sampled yearly from first clinic visit. The V3 region of HIV-1 was sequenced in triplicate, then tropism predicted using the Geno2Pheno system. Baseline tropism prediction remained valid for a median of 52 months (range 7-81). For 19/26 individuals baseline tropism remained unchanged throughout a median of 54 months follow-up; 18 R5 tropic and 1 X4 tropic. In seven patients (27%) baseline tropism switched at least once (range 1-4 switches) during follow-up; however, their baseline tropism prediction remained valid for a median of 45 months. Co-receptor tropism in treatment-naïve patients with ongoing viral replication appears highly stable over time, suggesting that baseline genotypic tropism prediction may be valid for a longer duration in patients delaying ART initiation. In this study, baseline tropism prediction remained valid for a median of 52 months, suggesting current guidelines recommending repeat testing after 90 days may be excessively conservative in their assessment of tropism stability.

Projected Lifetime Healthcare Costs Associated with HIV Infection.

OBJECTIVE: Estimates of healthcare costs associated with HIV infection would provide valuable insight for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of possible prevention interventions. We evaluate the additional lifetime healthcare cost incurred due to living with HIV. METHODS: We used a stochastic computer simulation model to project the distribution of lifetime outcomes and costs of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) infected with HIV in 2013 aged 30, over 10,000 simulations. We assumed a resource-rich setting with no loss to follow-up, and that standards and costs of healthcare management remain as now. RESULTS: Based on a median (interquartile range) life expectancy of 71.5 (45.0-81.5) years for MSM in such a setting, the estimated mean lifetime cost of treating one person was £ 360,800 ($567,000 or € 480,000). With 3.5% discounting, it was £ 185,200 ($291,000 or € 246,000). The largest proportion (68%) of these costs was attributed to antiretroviral drugs. If patented drugs are replaced by generic versions (at 20% cost of patented prices), estimated mean lifetime costs reduced to £ 179,000 ($ 281,000 or € 238,000) and £ 101,200 ($ 158,900 or € 134,600) discounted. CONCLUSIONS: If 3,000 MSM had been infected in 2013, then future lifetime costs relating to HIV care is likely to be in excess of £ 1 billion. It is imperative for investment into prevention programmes to be continued or scaled-up in settings with good access to HIV care services. Costs would be reduced considerably with use of generic antiretroviral drugs.

Trends in underlying causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011 (D:A:D): a multicohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: With the advent of effective antiretroviral treatment, the life expectancy for people with HIV is now approaching that seen in the general population. Consequently, the relative importance of other traditionally non-AIDS-related morbidities has increased. We investigated trends over time in all-cause mortality and for specific causes of death in people with HIV from 1999 to 2011. METHODS: Individuals from the Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study were followed up from March, 1999, until death, loss to follow-up, or Feb 1, 2011, whichever occurred first. The D:A:D study is a collaboration of 11 cohort studies following HIV-1-positive individuals receiving care at 212 clinics in Europe, USA, and Australia. All fatal events were centrally validated at the D:A:D coordinating centre using coding causes of death in HIV (CoDe) methodology. We calculated relative rates using Poisson regression. FINDINGS: 3909 of the 49,731 D:A:D study participants died during the 308,719 person-years of follow-up (crude incidence mortality rate, 12.7 per 1000 person-years [95% CI 12.3-13.1]). Leading underlying causes were: AIDS-related (1123 [29%] deaths), non-AIDS-defining cancers (590 [15%] deaths), liver disease (515 [13%] deaths), and cardiovascular disease (436 [11%] deaths). Rates of all-cause death per 1000 person-years decreased from 17.5 in 1999-2000 to 9.1 in 2009-11; we saw similar decreases in death rates per 1000 person-years over the same period for AIDS-related deaths (5.9 to 2.0), deaths from liver disease (2.7 to 0.9), and cardiovascular disease deaths (1.8 to 0.9). However, non-AIDS cancers increased slightly from 1.6 per 1000 person-years in 1999-2000 to 2.1 in 2009-11 (p=0.58). After adjustment for factors that changed over time, including CD4 cell count, we detected no decreases in AIDS-related death rates (relative rate for 2009-11 vs 1999-2000: 0.92 [0.70-1.22]). However, all-cause (0.72 [0.61-0.83]), liver disease (0.48 [0.32-0.74]), and cardiovascular disease (0.33 [0.20-0.53) death rates still decreased over time. The percentage of all deaths that were AIDS-related (87/256 [34%] in 1999-2000 and 141/627 [22%] in 2009-11) and liver-related (40/256 [16%] in 1999-2000 and 64/627 [10%] in 2009-11) decreased over time, whereas non-AIDS cancers increased (24/256 [9%] in 1999-2000 to 142/627 [23%] in 2009-11). INTERPRETATION: Recent reductions in rates of AIDS-related deaths are linked with continued improvement in CD4 cell count. We hypothesise that the substantially reduced rates of liver disease and cardiovascular disease deaths over time could be explained by improved use of non-HIV-specific preventive interventions. Non-AIDS cancer is now the leading non-AIDS cause and without any evidence of improvement. FUNDING: Oversight Committee for the Evaluation of Metabolic Complications of HAART, with representatives from academia, patient community, US Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency and consortium of AbbVie, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Merck, Pfizer, F Hoffmann-La Roche, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals.

The utility of different bioinformatics algorithms for genotypic HIV-1 tropism testing in a large clinical cohort with multiple subtypes.

OBJECTIVES: HIV-1 tropism needs to be determined before the use of CCR5 antagonist drugs such as maraviroc (MVC), which are ineffective against CXCR4-using HIV-1. This study assessed how different computational methods for predicting tropism from HIV sequence data performed in a large clinical cohort. The value of adding clinical data to these algorithms was also investigated. DESIGN AND METHODS: PCR amplification and sequence analysis of the HIV-1 gp120 V3 loop region was performed on triple replicates of plasma viral RNA or proviral DNA extracted from peripheral blood monocytes (PBMCs) in 242 patients. Coreceptor usage was predicted from V3 sequences using seven bioinformatics interpretation algorithms, combined with clinical data where appropriate. An intention-to-treat approach was employed for exploring outcomes and performance for different viral subtypes was examined. RESULTS: The frequency of R5 predictions varied by 22.6%, with all seven algorithms agreeing for only 75.3% of tests. The identification of individuals likely to fail was poor for all algorithms. The addition of clinical data improved this, but at the expense of their ability to predict success. The clinical algorithms varied across subtypes, whereas other algorithms were more consistent. Furthermore, individuals with discordant clonal and clinical predictions were more likely to fail MVC treatment. CONCLUSION: Eligibility for MVC varied depending on the algorithm method used. The addition of clinical parameters alongside sequence data may help predict X4 emergence during treatment. It could be that V3 loop analysis in isolation may not be the best method for selecting individuals for MVC.

Development of a definition for Rapid Progression (RP) of renal function in HIV-positive persons: the D:A:D study.

BACKGROUND: No consensus exists on how to define abnormally rapid deterioration in renal function (Rapid Progression, RP). We developed an operational definition of RP in HIV-positive persons with baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >90 ml/min/1.73 m2 (using Cockcroft Gault) in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study from 2004 to 2011. METHODS: Two definitions were evaluated; RP definition A: An average eGFR decline (slope) ≥5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year over four years of follow-up with ≥3 eGFR measurements/year, last eGFR <90 ml/min/1.73 m2 and an absolute decline ≥5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year in two consecutive years. RP definition B: An absolute annual decline ≥5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year in each year and last eGFR <90 ml/min/1.73 m2. Sensitivity analyses were performed considering two and three years' follow-up. The percentage with and without RP who went on to subsequently develop incident chronic kidney disease (CKD; 2 consecutive eGFRs <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and 3 months apart) was calculated. RESULTS: 22,603 individuals had baseline eGFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2. 108/3655 (3.0%) individuals with ≥4 years' follow-up and ≥3 measurements/year experienced RP under definition A; similar proportions were observed when considering follow-up periods of three (n=195/6375; 3.1%) and two years (n=355/10756; 3.3%). In contrast under RP definition B, greater proportions experienced RP when considering two years (n=476/10756; 4.4%) instead of three (n=48/6375; 0.8%) or four (n=15/3655; 0.4%) years' follow-up. For RP definition A, 13 (12%) individuals who experienced RP progressed to CKD, and only (21) 0.6% of those without RP progressed to CKD (sensitivity 38.2% and specificity 97.4%); whereas for RP definition B, fewer RP individuals progressed to CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest using three years' follow-up and at least two eGFR measurements per year is most appropriate for a RP definition, as it allows inclusion of a reasonable number of individuals and is associated with the known risk factors. The definition does not necessarily identify all those that progress to incident CKD, however, it can be used alongside other renal measurements to early identify and assess those at risk of developing CKD. Future analyses will use this definition to identify other risk factors for RP, including the role of antiretrovirals.

Republished: unlocking the potential: longitudinal audit finds multifaceted education for general practice increases HIV testing and diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: This longitudinal study aimed to evaluate the impact of a multifaceted educational intervention (Sexual Health in Practice, SHIP) on general practice HIV testing rates in a high prevalence London area. INTERVENTION: SHIP offered training in sexual health clinical skills to general practitioners (GPs) and practice nurses (PNs) in Haringey. SHIP training aims to break down stigma in sexual health and provide sexual history and communication tools (e.g. differential diagnosis), and provides resources to practices (including condoms). DESIGN: Numbers of GP HIV tests were collected from laboratories for 24 months prior, 19 months during and 5 months after training. Attendance data and practice list sizes were obtained. RESULTS: 39 of 51 practices had at least one trained individual. These `trained' practices conducted an average 526 HIV tests p.a. before training began which rose to a projected 1556 p.a. (on the basis of the last 6 months of data). Testing rates of trained and untrained practices increased from 2.29 to 6.66 and 1.54 to 1.90 tests/1000 registered patients/year (p=0.0016 and p=0.5195) respectively. The rate of positive diagnosis was high in the trained group (18.0 and 16.7 positives/1000 tests before and after training began; p=0.7908). This equates to a rise from 9.5 to 22 new diagnoses p.a. CONCLUSIONS: The training intervention has been found to significantly increase general practice HIV testing rates in the absence of financial incentives. Positivity rates are substantially higher than that found in pilots of screening in London, suggesting that the training nurtured and supplemented complex clinical skills.

Failure to achieve a CD4+ cell count response on combination antiretroviral therapy despite consistent viral load suppression.

OBJECTIVE: To assess CD4 cell count recovery in people severely immunosuppressed at start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) who achieve and maintain viral load suppression. METHODS: Eligible participants from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study started ART with at least three drugs after 1 January 2000. Participants were required to have pre-ART CD4 cell count below 100 cells/µl, at least 2 years of follow-up on ART, have achieved viral load suppression (≤ 50 copies/ml) by 9 months after starting ART and to have maintained this throughout follow-up. Participants were further required to be regularly engaged with care. We calculated the proportion of people who failed to achieve a CD4 cell count of more than 100, 150, 200, 350 and 500 cells/µl by the time of the last follow-up, or 5 years from start of ART, whichever occurred first (censoring date). RESULTS: Of the 400 participants [median (interquartile range) pre-ART CD4 cell count of 38 (14-65) cells/µl], 2 (0.5%), 8 (2%), 28 (7%), 131 (33%) and 259 (65%) failed to achieve a CD4 cell count of more than 100, 150, 200, 350 and 500 cells/µl, by the censoring date, respectively. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the proportion of people reaching each CD4 cell count threshold after 1 year on ART were 88, 70, 50, 14 and 3%, respectively, and after 3 years on ART, 98, 95, 90, 59 and 25%, respectively. Median (interquartile range) follow-up on ART was 3.9 (2.7-4.8) years. CONCLUSION: Given a person with pre-ART CD4 cell count below 100 cells/µl survives and maintains consistent viral load suppression on ART, there is over a 90% chance of reaching a CD4 cell count above 200 cells/µl by 3 years.

Systemic amyloidosis in England: an epidemiological study.

Epidemiological studies of systemic amyloidosis are scarce and the burden of disease in England has not previously been estimated. In 1999, the National Health Service commissioned the National Amyloidosis Centre (NAC) to provide a national clinical service for all patients with amyloidosis. Data for all individuals referred to the NAC is held on a comprehensive central database, and these were compared with English death certificate data for amyloidosis from 2000 to 2008, obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Amyloidosis was stated on death certificates of 2543 individuals, representing 0·58/1000 recorded deaths. During the same period, 1143 amyloidosis patients followed at the NAC died, 903 (79%) of whom had amyloidosis recorded on their death certificates. The estimated minimum incidence of systemic amyloidosis in the English population in 2008, based on new referrals to the NAC, was 0·4/100 000 population. The incidence peaked at age 60-79 years. Systemic AL amyloidosis was the most common type with an estimated minimum incidence of 0·3/100 000 population. Although there are various limitations to this study, the available data suggest the incidence of systemic amyloidosis in England exceeds 0·8/100 000 of the population.